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20-12-2019, 22:41   #31
hawkwing
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gfs 18z would make for a cold christmas week,is this the a start of a change
Dry and cold it says from the 24th till 2020,would settle for that at this stage
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20-12-2019, 22:54   #32
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Dry and cold it says from the 24th till 2020,would settle for that at this stage
the models have been all over the place over the past week with a different outcome every update, hopefully now it will be more consistant and we can get to enjoy fine, settled and frosty weather. We could all do with a prolonged break from the relentless rain/Atlantic, it outstayed it's welcome a long time ago.
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20-12-2019, 23:00   #33
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gfs 18z would make for a cold christmas week,is this the a start of a change
I never trust the 18Z GFS but hopefully it’s onto something
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21-12-2019, 12:03   #34
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Earlier in the week there had been signs of a LP / Storm coming close to Ireland. This stayed much lower to the S and today is expected to bring strong winds to N Portugal, N Spain and into W France through the Bay of Biscay. Set to produce strong winds in the Med later especially around Corsica and Sardinia.








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21-12-2019, 12:20   #35
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very unusual to see wind charts for Spain! I'll keep an eye on the sea conditions with the Fuengirola webcam. Usually in situations like this, they end up with rain and when it rains there it's usually biblical. They had a few nasty storms and flooding on the costa last winter.
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21-12-2019, 12:45   #36
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
very unusual to see wind charts for Spain! I'll keep an eye on the sea conditions with the Fuengirola webcam. Usually in situations like this, they end up with rain and when it rains there it's usually biblical. They had a few nasty storms and flooding on the costa last winter.
Yes, this one is going to cause problems along a large area of northern Iberia and France. It will then set up a Genoa trough that will bring very strong Maestrale northwesterly to the central Med. I've experienced numerous summer maestrali in northwest Sardinia but a winter one is pretty strong by all accounts.

Note that the isobar spacing below for more southern latitudes is different to what we're used to at our latitude. A wider spacing there gives the same speed as a narrower spacing up here (as shown in the windscale inset).




Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 21-12-2019 at 12:50.
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21-12-2019, 15:06   #37
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Note that the isobar spacing below for more southern latitudes is different to what we're used to at our latitude. A wider spacing there gives the same speed as a narrower spacing up here [/quote]

Every day is a school day. Interesting
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21-12-2019, 18:53   #38
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Looking cooler again on the ECM 12Z . Showing frontal activity associated with a LP move up the country into cold air early on Stephens morning . Currently showing a big dump of sleet and snow in parts of the southern half of the country ( and rain ! ). But anybody following the charts lately will know that they have been all over the place. But the ECM has been showing the cold air mass as becoming a feature for a few runs now . Something to watch














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21-12-2019, 19:20   #39
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ICON showing a different set up with a LP running up off the W coast in far less cold air.



GFS similar to ECM with arrival of rainfall but air mass not as cold late Weds into Thurs. Is showing the Easterlies though.



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22-12-2019, 11:09   #40
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ECM has made a big switch more in line with the other models bringing that LP up off the Western coasts but keeping the strongest winds off the coast for the moment anyway. Not as much precipitation also and has lost the snow for the Southern half of the country, showing wintry precipitation the W but very mixed mid level and upper air charts . As reflected by the forecasts big uncertainty with Weds/ Thurs weather at this stage. We can expect more changes.









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22-12-2019, 22:10   #41
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This storm for Christmas night is nudging ever closer to the South West!! Just a watch for the moment but the trend by this evenings Icon and Gfs is to ramp it up.
Also worth noting high tides will coincide for the 26th
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22-12-2019, 22:46   #42
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Big difference between the models still. ICON looks the strongest by far but bringing the system in much earlier than the others.

ECM, GFS and UKMO has the nearest grouping of positions , the ECM brings the center in over us , keeping the strongest winds off the S.

ARPEGE 12Z has the system much further S with the least effect on us.

Currently the main cluster of models probably showing some coastal counties maybe reaching yellow warning, ICON possibly a bit higher but ICON is the outsider here.

The Center not looking too low atm at an avg of about 988 hPa at it's lowest near Ireland and filling fairly quickly on it's approach.









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23-12-2019, 19:46   #43
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Majority of the models keep the LP system on Weds/ Thurs well off the W coast, a difference yet but not showing very strong winds at this stage. ARPEE brings it in over the S.








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24-12-2019, 18:12   #44
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Widespread frost in the morning. Icy road conditions in places. Winds on Weds look just below Yellow warning levels generally apart from the risk of a higher gust on exposed coasts.



Winds building from the SW from late afternoon. Getting increasingly milder from the S , mild night Weds into Thurs morning.



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25-12-2019, 09:38   #45
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A low has formed along that cold front east of the Azores this morning, and it wasn't forecasted in yesterday's forecast (2nd chart). That could bring a different scenario tonight, with possible enhancement to rainfall levels and stronger winds now further east.



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