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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 03-12-2019 8:53pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58





    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks.





    Looking quite windy along coasts mainly in the W, NW and N on Thurs and blustery overland. Probably gusting around 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 70 km/h overland, possibly a bit more on higher ground.

    Heavy rain in the NW and to a lesser extent in the W

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 0Z showing very windy for Sunday in parts of the W, SW and S. Showing strong winds inland as well, 90 to 120km/h. Latest run a big jump in wind speeds but still a long way off. Other models not as windy but still showing 80 to 90 km/h gusts inland. Will see what the 12Z is showing.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z looking as strong if not stronger on the latest run for Sunday with the strongest winds in the W, SW and strong overland as well .

    This has a bit to play out yet but looking like large areas of LP feeding off each other driven by a very strong Jet creating a very large wind field which could produce storm conditions along the coasts, bit early to speculate how high the wind speeds will be overland but for the last couple of runs now the ECM hads been showing at least Orange warning levels and probably high at that.

    Currently showing 100 to 130 km/h on coasts, up to 90 to 120 km overland more so coastal counties and 90 to 110km/h overland . Still just Weds but has locked on to this now for a few runs and the other models are starting to show stronger winds especially the ARPEGE.

    Also of note is the duration of the high winds being shown, possibly gusting over 90 to 100km/h for 12 to 15hrs along with the higher gusts along W and SW coasts


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGe 12Z showing very windy countrywide on Sunday, not as strong as the ECM but it is still a bit far out for this model.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON 12Z showing the strong winds rising from later Sat evening and showing Kerry getting very strong winds on this run. This too was a jump up in wind speeds on the latest runs.

    GFS windy on coasts but not as strong as the other models.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS stronger looking for Sunday on the 18Z run.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Windy and blustery at times this week coming. Models showing strong wind potential towards Thurs /Fri

    Looks very wet on Tuesday .

    Very cold later Tuesday into Weds with wintry precipitation and also wintry precip. possible early Thurs in Northern counties. Very wet again on Thurs.

    Wintry looking next weekend also.

    Rough wet and cold week in general coming up.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The Jet very strong towards the end of the week when strong winds are expected. Another one to watch :)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    The Jet very strong towards the end of the week when strong winds are expected. Another one to watch :)



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    With a very strong jet and MTs forecast speculating high energy event around the Christmas period. I would not be surprised if we did get something historic after all the criticism of Met Eireanns warning mechanism.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Milder as the fronts go through on Tuesday and then under a cooler air mass with temperatures dropping quickly and the EURO 4 showing plenty of wintry showers. ECM showing a small bit of accumulation for awhile on mountains and possibly the highest hills . Could be a lot of hail showers with Lightning possible, blustery showers, more so along Atlantic Coastal Counties.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I think it was Oneiric 3 that mentioned a possible squall line forming as the front crosses the country tomorrow, will be keeping an eye in the early afternoon.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking quite windy along Atlantic coasts tomorrow evening into early Fri. The strong wind core showing up on the charts for Fri night looks to pass offshore to the S, still a bit windy in the W/ SW though.


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    The disturbance to the S of Ireland on Fri evening. Westerly airflow dragging in cold air mass late Fri early Sat. Temperatures Sat only about 3 to 7C

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Temperatures staying on the cold side out to +120 hrs .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Saturday is looking very interesting for the South especially.
    If the trend continues tomorrow it may deserve it's own thread!! Certainly a fair chance of high ground snow falling


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes I looked at GFS earlier and there were PURPLES north of us....not blues. What the hell does purple mean?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,121 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yes I looked at GFS earlier and there were PURPLES north of us....not blues. What the hell does purple mean?

    Prince beats BB King.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 Cork Boy 53


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Prince beats BB King.

    I doubt we will get any purple rain though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Windy wet weather on Weds. After a cold start getting a bit milder from a Southerly direction.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast.

    ECM 06Z stronger in the SW and onto S coasts but nothing extreme on this run, showing the same area of LP or wave much further out to the W and falling pressure also.

    ARPEGE windy in the S

    GFS weakest of the lot.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON 18Z rowed back on the very strong winds, more like the ARPEGE 12Z now.

    ECM 12Z eased back on the strong winds also. Looking like gusting 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 80 km/h overland

    Showing a lot of rain in the S and SE inot Thurs morning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast..


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    That setup would not be good for Dublin Bay at high tide Wednesday night.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Deep are of LP close to Ireland around next Fri , deepening on approach. ECM not showing a huge wind field and the winds not affecting Ireland on this run but one to keep an eye on.


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    https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1206336133984116736?s=20


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has picked up the wind strength again for Weds on the 06Z showing the deepening area of LP move up along the W coast . Showing strong winds overland atm , gusting in general up around 100km/h in Munster . This is the kind of system that can sneak up and catch people out and produce unusually strong winds overland as the system deepens close to land aided by the Jet.

    ARPEGE and ICON have also moved up the wind speeds as have the American models.

    Is this going to get stronger ?

    My own guess ....... possible.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z eased off on wind speeds again. More like gusting up around 80 to 90 km/h winds overland, bit higher on some coasts gusting up around 100 km/h perhaps. Bit to go yet on this one.


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    EURO 4 coming into view,

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Plenty of rain predicted by the models for Weds. along the S and SE counties.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    GFS going possibly Orange Level alert for this.

    Charts look severe on West side but preliminary yet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    pauldry wrote: »
    GFS going possibly Orange Level alert for this.

    Charts look severe on West side but preliminary yet

    Not far off Red level for Cork and Kerry based on the 12z GFS, I always get worried when 24hrs before an event the models start upgrading the wind speeds


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    The worst storms always come as a surprise


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,666 ✭✭✭ igCorcaigh


    typhoony wrote: »
    Not far off Red level for Cork and Kerry based on the 12z GFS, I always get worried when 24hrs before an event the models start upgrading the wind speeds

    Wow... This is due to hit tomorrow afternoon?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    gfs 18z would make for a cold christmas week,is this the a start of a change


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,695 ✭✭✭ hawkwing


    gfs 18z would make for a cold christmas week,is this the a start of a change
    Dry and cold it says from the 24th till 2020,would settle for that at this stage:)


This discussion has been closed.
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