Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus wrote: »

The only depraved greed I’ve seen in this thread is the recession cheerleaders to be honest, how anyone could a) be happy about this and b) assume they will be unaffected and able to buy the house they want is beyond me.

Says the mealy mouthed property owner. Give over will ya. Like you everyone else hopes their own personal circumstances improve and for some that means inflated house prices falling.

Pelezico wrote: »

It really is getting to be quite beautiful.

What if your son loses his job/business?

PropQueries wrote: »

“The Great Irish Sell-Off (Monday, RTÉ One, 9.35pm) comes to putting a face on the otherwise anonymous financial companies that now control 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in the country.”
.

I think investors could well be a catalyst for big drops.


We are in the beginnings of a recession and governments are taking on bigger and bigger debts. Typical in this environment we will see properties go down and banks tighten up lending.
I havent really seen this as yet, some are saying its due to supply. But other assets are also over inflated and will likely see big drops. I think Countries are propping up economies with stimulus, but once this settles we we start seeing the impact, now exacerbated by that very stimulus.



I think its clear big investors are no longer buying property. (I have heard of the odd home owner buying a second property as an investment and this makes me shudder, but the big boys are out of the buying)
Once investors start selling then we could see a big reversal.


When I see articles like this it makes me laugh.
https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/financial-expert-carol-brick-reveals-22663182
I mean you get more useful info on this forum then the data this "financial expert" detailed in the interview.

I guess the point I am making is, I try not to listen to any "financial experts". In this mad world, you are better off drawing your own conclusions. On a side note, why does the person in this article run a business that only provides financial advice to woman. This is bizarre to me.

KnowingWind wrote: »

I think investors could well be a catalyst for big drops.


We are in the beginnings of a recession and governments are taking on bigger and bigger debts. Typical in this environment we will see properties go down and banks tighten up lending.
I havent really seen this as yet, some are saying its due to supply. But other assets are also over inflated and will likely see big drops. I think Countries are propping up economies with stimulus, but once this settles we we start seeing the impact, now exacerbated by that very stimulus.



I think its clear big investors are no longer buying property. (I have heard of the odd home owner buying a second property as an investment and this makes me shudder, but the big boys are out of the buying)
Once investors start selling then we could see a big reversal.


When I see articles like this it makes me laugh.
https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/financial-expert-carol-brick-reveals-22663182
I mean you get more useful info on this forum then the data this "financial expert" detailed in the interview.

I guess the point I am making is, I try not to listen to any "financial experts". In this mad world, you are better off drawing your own conclusions. On a side note, why does the person in this article run a business that only provides financial advice to woman. This is bizarre to me.

Once again you show a complete misunderstanding of property investment. First property is a long-term investment. It not like shares where investors often dump them or take a profit if they smell an issue that will effect there prices.

Property investors look at investment as a 20 year plus cycle. The vast majority will have been through 2-3 downturn in prices. The cost of buying and selling and buying again is 3-20% if CGT is an issue as well as rental loss


What's a large investor if you are talking about REIT's again these are long-term investors and while they may at time offload part of there investment most again look at it in the longer term.

The other investors are those that own multiple properties. Larger investors may have 10+ properties. Most will have been investing 20+years in property. They look at investment again in the long-term. Unless in need of the money must will not sell. Even if they requite cash most will have the option of remortgaging. Thus may be a better option than selling. Older larger investors would have massive CGT bills are on selling and while selling 2006-2016 properties may be an options most of the rest of there portfolios would raise a CGT issue.

As well most larger property investors will be older maybe in there 60's or 70,'s and not only will selling raise CGT issue in 5-10 years the cash may will be subject to inheritance tax. It much more tx efficient to leave it in property

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Once again you show a complete misunderstanding of property investment. First property is a long-term investment. It not like shares where investors often dump them or take a profit if they smell an issue that will effect there prices.

Property investors look at investment as a 20 year plus cycle. The vast majority will have been through 2-3 downturn in prices. The cost of buying and selling and buying again is 3-20% if CGT is an issue as well as rental loss


What's a large investor if you are talking about REIT's again these are long-term investors and while they may at time offload part of there investment most again look at it in the longer term.

The other investors are those that own multiple properties. Larger investors may have 10+ properties. Most will have been investing 20+years in property. They look at investment again in the long-term. Unless in need of the money must will not sell. Even if they requite cash most will have the option of remortgaging. Thus may be a better option than selling. Older larger investors would have massive CGT bills are on selling and while selling 2006-2016 properties may be an options most of the rest of there portfolios would raise a CGT issue.

As well most larger property investors will be older maybe in there 60's or 70,'s and not only will selling raise CGT issue in 5-10 years the cash may will be subject to inheritance tax. It much more tx efficient to leave it in property

I think your analysis would be spot on in a normally functioning housing market. But, as that RTE investigation showed, REITs etc comprised a very small percentage of the €200 billion in property and business loans purchased between 2012 and 2016.

The vulture funds (excl. reits etc.) who purchased tens of billions of euro of investment properties and property development loans are most likely wanting to exit now. Even if they sell at 50% of current market prices, they’re still probably going to walk away with a large return. They’re probably not interested in micro-managing these properties indefinitely.

The main question now is when will they pull the trigger. Maybe they have already or started the process and we won’t know until it’s all done and dusted and we’re left holding the proverbial all over again.

Vieira82 wrote: »

Big Investor Companies will not sell. They literally have billions in surplus waiting for the market to crash to mass buy what goes down. The houses going down, means they will maintain their investments highly priced waiting for the market to rebound. Here from minute 9, Blakcstone Alone has 156 Billion dollars ready to invest in the property market: youtu.be/G-Rp6bGORc8 or youtube Why You Should Be Very Afraid Of A K-shaped Recovery from Economics Explained

Well IRES REIT said recently they’re selling over 150 apartments. We only know this because they’re a public company and like glenveagh recently publicly stating they will reduce their prices, they must inform the market of their plans.

Unfortunately, the majority of the €200 billion in property and business loans bought by the vulture funds between 2012 and 2016 are private companies and we have little knowledge of what they have done to date or plan to do in the very near future.

Link to ires reit Selling apartments article here: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

PropQueries wrote: »

Well IRES REIT said recently they’re selling over 150 apartments. We only know this because they’re a public company and like glenveagh recently publicly stating they will reduce their prices, they must inform the market of their plans.

Unfortunately, the majority of the €200 billion in property and business loans bought by the vulture funds between 2012 and 2016 are private companies and we have little knowledge of what they have done to date or plan to do in the very near future.

Link to ires reit Selling apartments article here: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

It's 150 apartment across nine developments. It could be well be the case that they selling small Portfolios, which are more difficult to manage and consolidating under bigger investment. Don't be surprised to see in coming year, investing in bigger residential projects over 150 apartments for Build-to-Rent, as those are easier to manage for big landlords.

Its always the way, even when the writing is on the wall, people still think property will go up and up.

A friend of mine closed last week on a house in a desirable area of Dublin. Asking price was 500k, they closed at 420k.

Had originally lost out to someone offering asking, but that sale fell through due to COVID.

I've been looking for about a year and I've decided to bow out for now. I've bid on three properties in the last few months. One in Marino went sale agreed at 95k over the asking, one in the Liberties and one in Drumcondra went for 50k over.

shatners bassoon wrote: »

I've been looking for about a year and I've decided to bow out for now. I've bid on three properties in the last few months. One in Marino went sale agreed at 95k over the asking, one in the Liberties and one in Drumcondra went for 50k over.

My cousin went through something similar recently. They were looking at a beautiful house in a fairly rural area that's still only 30 mins from Cork City. Asking was €260k and by the time she bowed out the highest bid was €400k. Now that's obviously the extreme case but it just goes to show that people have money at the moment.

However on the flip side the houses we've had our eyes on over the last few months have all gone for asking +- €15k. The majority have gone for asking price. I guess the houses / areas we're considering aren't high on people's priorities. Just offering my 2c that it's not all doom & gloom, at least outside Dublin anyway.