Winter 2011/2012

jo06555 wrote: »

This piers corbyn seems to know what's he is talking about and he is predicting heavy snowfalls in a few weeks shall we all get the shovels out now in preparation?

You diggin graves?

As is now becoming clearer on reliable time frame global forecast models, late October could be a lot colder than the past three weeks have been. That colder trend may fade out for part of early NOVEMBER with another mild spell, but colder weather with some snow may then return in the second half of November.

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/

who's alter ego is caff caff I wonder?

dsmythy wrote: »

Caff Caff wrote: »

We can't allow the fact that someone comes across arrogant to stop us from listening to what they have to say. He has the backing of many many astrophysicists and meteorologists and his arrogance is due to broadcasters and forecasters who have been ignoring him and calling him a charlatan. He's a scientist... I am a man of science and I can tell you that my students tell me that they think that I am arrogant and staunch in my beliefs through my extensive work, observation and practice in my field but I say "Ca n'empeche pas d'exister". You may not like the theorist or the theory... but it does not stop it from existing! :cool:

either way... it's a few weeks and we will have a clearer idea. The mild and consistent weather we are having right now is interesting. It remains at 11degrees ALL day. It has been at an average of 11degrees for the last two days and nights and even right now at 23:20pm it is still 11degrees. Is there blocking going on right now? Hmmm...

So where are the previous forecasts? Probably me being blind not seeing his records.

Youtube and on his own site. his forecasts have been off in the past too but he and his team have been trying to perfect the theory. since 2007 he's been pretty spot on. just check out youtube and see d video upload dates. They predicted earthquakes, tornados in Africa, the unexpected blizzards in America, the floods here+UK. I dunno if he and his team are just lucky but they have been spot on the last 5years. Many do not like him because he says global warming is nonsense but his theory around that is also interesting. We can only wait and see. I've just always been fascinated by this stuff and deep down I do want it to snow but Corbyn and his team have caught my attention for now...

As always...roll on the snow...even though is still remained 11degrees till 1am and it rose to 13 and now its 12degrees out. jaysis... bit of a difference to d short lived frost -2 we had d weekend.

Check this out!

'WILL IT SNOW' – as promised
Despite the recent increase in solar activity and the large sunspots that are visible on the solar disk at present (See Fig.1), solar activity still remains very low in terms of UV radiation.

FIG.1 SOHO (2011)
I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.
As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.
I really won't have any of this talk about a mild winter, will the people who feel the need to email me every hour of the day trying to convince me otherwise, please stop this?
One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.
The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?
My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.
You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year.
No expensive computer models that don't work until a few weeks before or doctorate required!


UK Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 8th November 2011 (22:09) GMT
Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Www.irishweatheronline.com which is Positive Weather Solutions, believe we will not be seeing much snow or at all. booo... depressing! I hope they are wrong

Caff Caff wrote: »

Www.irishweatheronline.com which is Positive Weather Solutions

Now ur Definitely wrong on THIS ONE ha ... WolfEire set this site up this time last year ( happy Anniversary! ) ... And we get the forecasts from Peter O'Donnell . He isn't forecast no snow at all ... Just not to the extent of last year.

In anyways , anyone with nice pictures of today's weather send them to mise @ iwopics@live.ie and I'll post them over on the IWO FB

Caff Caff wrote: »

Forgot the image for last post... oops! This is all from www.exactaweather.com

Just thought I'd let you know that this exactaweather and James Mad One is a joke around here at this stage!

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Caff Caff wrote: »

Forgot the image for last post... oops! This is all from www.exactaweather.com

Just thought I'd let you know that this exactaweather and James Mad One is a joke around here at this stage!

tell me more!! What do you mean?

Caff Caff wrote: »

tell me more!! What do you mean?

He predicted heavy snowfall in October* - it was the mildest I've ever seen.
November will also be exceptionally mild as that high over Europe remains stationary for the next two weeks it seems.
* He's (Madden) now trying to say he correctly predicted snow in Oct by posting a picture, on some website, of snow in Scotland (and some slush in N.I.) taken at about 1000m asl which is not unusual at that altitude even in Oct.

I will not discuss exactaweather again after this post, if it wasn't for the tabloids no one would ever have heard of this lot.

Kippure wrote: »

Has anyone seen this.:)

http://www.winterready.ie/

Thats gas ha.... " Stay safe this winter by visiting Winterready.ie .... orrrrrrrr u could save all the hassle of opening up a pdf and vist... Met.ie "
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

From the Germans http://www.wetterpro...-2011-2012.html
Translated with Google translator

In recent days we have again increased e-mails received with questions such as: When is the snow? Can you even make a snow forecast?. Almost seems as though many now in a frenzy of winter and the snow against what our survey shows for the winter 2011/2012. Most likely it is to the present time that the weather situation around the 17th/18th. November is going to change around. Both weather models expect a large accumulation of cold air north of the Arctic Circle - Experience shows that it is only a matter of time until it finds its way to the south. Whether Germany will then be affected, to the present state can not be said, but there are already trends and probabilities. The U.S. weather model anticipates a moderate form of the temperature drop on november typical values ​​between 2 and 5 degrees from 20 Of November. The European weather model calculated from 19 November with a more typical winter constellation (high between Greenland and Scandinavia, gravure east Scandinavia), which enables the transport of cold air southward. If the scenario of the European weather model to arrive, with the first onset of winter around the 19th Expected around November. The view of the control runs indicates that a significantly cooler phase is significantly more likely than a continuation of the mild phase. The odds are still not bad for the first snow in the last Novembderdrittel.