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Winter 2011/2012

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    #1172
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    That was definitely not a sharp cold. More like a slight cooling before returning to normal temperatures.


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    #1173
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,510 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    The frost we had for three nights and early mornings there. So yes... you must have missed that.

    A low of -2.3 where temps recover to double figures in the day isn't really sudden sharp cold this time of year.


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    #1174
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Some Winter Forecasts here

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/newsstory/news/56653/winter-forecast-europe.asp

    http://www.clareherald.com/news/52-local/3590-pws-issues-long-range-forecast-for-winter-2011-12.html

    http://wsi.com/e7bd216b-ca72-4269-8a14-aeafaaefdf7e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

    http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

    http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

    and of course MTC's
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=74907235&postcount=1


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    #1175
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Enderman wrote: »
    That was definitely not a sharp cold. More like a slight cooling before returning to normal temperatures.

    It reached -2. He's not talking about -15 or -20! He said, if you bother to watch the video on youtube, a "short, sudden, sharp cold and then a return to sustained mild conditions... which is precisely what we are experiencing. It was 10degrees all day yesterday and then rose to 12degrees at 1am this morning and then returned to 11degrees and eventually dropped slightly to 8degrees and now it's been 11 degrees all day. If you research his stuff or watch some of his videos, you will see he and his team are showing promising research. November, according to meteorologists is NOT Winter. Winter begins from the end of November until the 1st of March. I love the focus on ONE thing I mention but it's correct so there you have it. :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::D


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    #1176
    lilzor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10 ✭lilzor


    the question is what do we need to get the snow ...i mean it has to be raining with - temperature or what ? because i dont really know .


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    #1177
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    lilzor wrote: »
    the question is what do we need to get the snow ...i mean it has to be raining with - temperature or what ? because i dont really know .

    preferably it should be around -4/5 to -9 for precipitation to fall as snow and not hail. :cool:


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    #1178
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    preferably it should be around -4/5 to -9 for precipitation to fall as snow and not hail. :cool:

    Yes the 850 temps(1500metres high) need to be at least a good -8 or more to bring sea level snow fall.


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    #1179
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Ohhhhh now he didnt mention anything about 850ph temps ! .. /retracts previous comment ...


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    #1180
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Eh ye thats completely wrong, anything less than +3 degrees and dew point of 0 degrees or less will bring snow to the ground...

    Actually, you will notice I said "preferably". Short answers are generally better but of course there are those that need further explanation! Upper atmospheric conditions count here ie sufficient moisture in the air, the air to be pushing upwards and it must cool as it rises. I am not talking about ground level temp. I am talking about 1500m. See the post on page 77 for enlightenment!


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    #1181
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    Actually, you will notice I said "preferably". Short answers are generally better but of course there are those that need further explanation! Upper atmospheric conditions count here ie sufficient moisture in the air, the air to be pushing upwards and it must cool as it rises. I am not talking about ground level temp. I am talking about 1500m. See the post on page 77 for enlightenment!

    I wonder what 850 temps ill get in Jan in Kiruna... hehehe :p


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    #1182
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    gfs-2010011612-1-5png?12


    :cool::pac::cool:


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    #1183
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    I wonder what 850 temps ill get in Jan in Kiruna... hehehe :p

    Ask Piers... :P


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    #1184
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Irish sea still relatively warm: 13.4 at the M2 buoy...positive anomaly of about 1-2 degrees (I recall last year there was a positive anomaly in front of wicklow/dublin coasts also)...I see a warmer than average sea as a positive thing as it can seriously beef up showers if there is a decent cold SE/E/NE flow...however, there is a trade off...a warmer than average sea means more convection but at the same time a higher chance of marginal situations particularly along the coasts...

    Looking at the bigger picture, last years incredible positive anomaly just off the greenland coast has disappeared and reverted to a below average anomaly...and remember that the positive anomalies off the greenland coast was one of the causes of the frequent blocking in that area (or consequence??...im not sure...), which in turn caused our cold snaps...interestingly, this year there is a positive anomaly over Scandinavian areas and extending out towards the W/NW....Scandinavian blocking this Winter??? We can only judge in March I suppose....:cool:

    Attachment is SST Anomaly Map (updated 7th november)

    ps. I wasnt sure where to post this so move it if you want ;)


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    #1185
    Kalemm63
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭Kalemm63


    most of these posts seem promising for snow in about 2 weeks .. just hope im not dissapointed :P cant waittttt xD


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    #1186
    flying11
    Registered Users Posts: 258 ✭✭flying11


    hi guys,
    long time reader and first time poster here.smile.gif
    i must say that this thread is great to read, the will it/won't it snow debate is fascinating!
    personally i love the cold weather and i think snow is greatbiggrin.gif

    in my opinion there is nothing better than going for a walk on a nice frosty night with all the stars on view and the sight of chimney smoke rising from everyhouse along the road.
    give me a sharp frost any night over the miserable mild weather that we seem to get constantly in ireland.
    and here is a funny pic about winter to end my first post in the weather forum:wink.gif
    dogsnow.jpg?w=329&h=230


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    #1187
    Bishop_Donal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Bishop_Donal


    Anyone know if Poodles ever thawed out?:)


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    #1188
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Bishop_Donal wrote: »
    Anyone know if Poodles ever thawed out?:)

    Ah yea sure its been above 10c since yesterday afternoon!:pac: How is actually spelled, puddles? Ah that's it, lord do i fell stupid now!:o


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    #1189
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    yes Weatheraction.com or youtube.
    Interestingly, he doesn't blow his own trumpet. It's blown for him...so to speak...
    He explains the science and how his predictions have been true. It is his goal to prove that the weather forecasters we have and their "science" is not science at all. As he says, "when will the world listen to science that works, rather than science that does not work". If he can predict tornados, blizzards, heat waves to the very DATE for the last number of years then I say give the man his own show...but they don't and he keeps going, unfunded because he believes. How many great men have we read something similar about in History??

    Checked his website but cant find his past forecasts anywhere. Extremely arrogant and constantly going on about how great his unexplained methods are while taking cheap digs at other forecasters. Not a fan of the guy at all


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    #1190
    Hue.G rection
    Registered Users Posts: 22 ✭Hue.G rection


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Booked My Flights To Kiruna Sweden Yesterday for Jan.! :)
    Hoping to see the lights ! ... but ye... heres a picture from Jan earlier this year :)

    5400687973_f6c6d27980.jpg

    I can't explain how jealous I am right now!


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    #1191
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Hue.G rection wrote: »
    I can't explain how jealous I am right now!

    Ill send pictures i promise.. hehe :D


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    #1192
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Ill send pictures i promise.. hehe :D

    That'll just make us more jealous! :(


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    #1193
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Booked My Flights To Kiruna Sweden Yesterday for Jan.! :)
    Hoping to see the lights ! ... but ye... heres a picture from Jan earlier this year :)
    I hope you dont get this set up when you're in Northern Sweden :p
    Rrea00119920124.gif
    It would be a shame to see temps above freezing and lots of slush!
    me jealous? I wouldn't know how!!


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    #1194
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    I hope you dont get this set up when you're in Northern Sweden :p
    Rrea00119920124.gif
    It would be a shame to see temps above freezing and lots of slush!
    me jealous? I wouldn't know how!!

    Hahaha... sure, clear skies = better chance of the northern lights! ... So ye ..:)

    Just a thought , How long did it take ya to find that chart? hehe ;)


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    #1195
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I didn't have to look hard for that chart. I can remember that winter of 91/2 as the most depressing I've ever experienced. There was endless weeks of anticyclonic gloom as intense areas of high pressure remained stationary over Europe and also in the vicinity of Ireland. Look at the charts between Dec and Feb and you'll find high pressure was never far away - always in the wrong place of course!


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    #1196
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Kalemm63 wrote: »
    most of these posts seem promising for snow in about 2 weeks .. just hope im not dissapointed :P cant waittttt xD

    I think you could be dissapointed looking at the models tonight


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    #1197
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    I didn't have to look hard for that chart. I can remember that winter of 91/2 as the most depressing I've ever experienced. There was endless weeks of anticyclonic gloom as intense areas of high pressure remained stationary over Europe and also in the vicinity of Ireland. Look at the charts between Dec and Feb and you'll find high pressure was never far away - always in the wrong place of course!
    well lets hope the hp over Europe doesn't decide to stay there this winter :(


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    #1198
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,891 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yes it looks scary. dont like seeing all of that orange.

    why wont the blues come visit.

    maybe the end of the month.

    i have no idea how ye do that attaching of images to yer posts is it difficult.

    tried a couple of times and nearly smashed me computer


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    #1199
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,650 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Ill send pictures i promise.. hehe :D

    no need Ian. we'll be snowed in come January:p

    Besides as nice as that place looks, snow at home is better

    ah who am I fooling, I'm envious too :pac:


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    #1200
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    nacho libre wrote: »
    no need Ian. we'll be snowed in come January:p

    Besides as nice as that place looks, snow at home is better

    ah who am I fooling, I'm envious too :pac:

    Its funny u say that... when i went to Oslo 2 Januarys back , it was the most snow i had ever seen! ... then i get a picture sent to me from home of it snowing! ha

    But ye... looking at it i was like... "pppffft " ... :rolleyes:

    Recorded from where ill be going! :):):)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnfSnT0TSLE


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    #1201
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    This piers corbyn seems to know what's he is talking about and he is predicting heavy snowfalls in a few weeks :) shall we all get the shovels out now in preparation? ;)


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