Heavy Rain South/South East. Possible Flooding Sunday 25 November

I too admit that the DUB TAF was wrong regarding precipitation, but I can see how it happened. When I saw the TAF at 5 pm I too thought it was a little strange but, being near the edge of a pivoting rain band, I reckoned they reckoned that by the start of the forecast period (6 pm) it would be starting to retreat, just like I'm sure with Cork. Here's a screenshot I took at 16:30, just around the time the TAF was issued and 90 mins before its start time. The rain was just past DUB and was circulating around, not expected to go further north. They were wrong.



Now questioning the metars is just ridiculous. If you don't believe the metars, then let's look at the hourly synop reports, which report the minimum prevailing visibility over at least 1 half of the horizon, and are reported by a human observer by referencing several landmarks at known distances. I've thrown in Casement's too, for proof. In both cases rain was reported as light to moderate, and these qualifiers are not just "estimations", they are based on the resulting visibilities.

Dublin Airport (12-20 km)
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03969&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=06


Casement (9 km at 6 pm, then 12 - 20 km for the rest of the period.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03967&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=06

Delighted to say We got none of the rain yesterday because if we had there was a good chance the house would've got flooded, the field next door and our site is saturated after wednesday nights rain, i'm amazed it missed us cos 10mins away at the home place the father said they had some real heavy stuff at times, usually i'd love a bit of mad weather like that but glad it missed us yesterday .

Villain wrote: »

I think MT was a bit off but fair play to Met Eireann they got it spot on with their Weather Warning with over 50mm recorded in the East.

Just wondering, why did you feel the need to bring up MT's forecast? If you looked at his forecast right instead of cherry picking certain elements of it to back up some sort of point you would see that it was fairly spot on for the majority of the country. IF 50 mm was recorded in the east, then most likely in a very small area and very likely to the lee of hills. A quick look at the official reports yesterday shows that rainfall totals in the affected areas were between 13-30 mm range generally. A bit more than MT forecast for one or 2 local spots but as I said, pretty spot on in most cases.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

BTW, That is not the HIRLAM model met eireann uses as you claim.

Villain wrote: »

Mothman recorded 60.2mm over 24 hours and 43mm was recorded in Wexford, I quoted MT's forecast to show that on occasion he can get it wrong and Met Eireann get it spot on. From reading threads here people are only too quick to attack Met Eireann while saying that unless MT says so it isn't going to happen.

As I said, those high totals seem very localized but I agree, too much met bashing going on here when their forecasts don't comply to common thought. Forecasting isn't a perfect science though, No forecaster or forecasting service will ever be 100% correct in any one forecast.

Oh and they do use the HIRLAM model when forecasting or did up to last year at least?

They do use the HIRLAM, but their own version of it, which can differ quite substantially to other runs in the HIRLAM Suite. (as Su mentioned above)

Villain wrote: »

I couldn't agree more, my post wasn't an attack on an individual just a reminder of exactly what you just said above

Just so long as that is the case for as the old saying goes, 'let they without sin...

and so on.