29 degrees possible May 28th.

Wikipedia has 28.4c as the record for May though lots of Mays seem hot at the end

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:



So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Good point!!! The depth of dryness in the soil combined with the sun getting ever closer to maximum strength means that evenings and nights have the potential to be rather warm for the rest of the week, where there is little or no wind. Like a stone wall that has been absorbing heat from the sun all day which then radiates the heat after the sun sets, the ground is becoming deeply warm and that too will radiate the heat stored during the day but on a much much bigger scale, in an almost continental climate fashion.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

I remember 29C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Washed the concrete path that runs along the back of my house this morning, and it is still wet, suggesting that out of the sun (which the path has been all day) drying is actually quite poor today.

I think one thing to consider for tomorrow temp potential is that pressure will be declining to the east, which could mean that a fair breeze could be springing up during the day which could prevent temps from rising as high as the forecast 29c. Forecast chart for tomorrow around the time, or shortly before, temps are expected to peak:




During the 3 days of 30c + back in late June 2018, it also got very breezy during the afternoon, but the air mass was drier and the sun stronger which would have allowed temps to climb as high as they did during that spell.

All up for grabs tomorrow me thinks. I'm sceptical but who knows. Also, seems to be a bit of shear going on tomorrow so chance of a surprise shower bubbling up if temps do climb sufficiently?

Got up to 26.4 for me at my weather station today, oddly enough, not an overly sunny day, pretty overcast.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLI26

Tomorrow afternoon's temperature anomaly forecast from the latest model run:



Warm everywhere, but if 29c is to be achieved, it'll most likely be somewhere within that darkest red region on that map.

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

bring back giant ledgers & the quill & ink

A 27c+ is likely in Connaught particularly toward the west.

How widespread remains to be seen.

Friday will be very warm to with mid 20's generally.

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:



I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:



I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.

Yup my 28.4c prediction way over the top

Probably mount Dillon will top whatever they get 26 or 27.

Other parts of west might touch 26

Mount Dillon 23 at midday. All others 22 or less.

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sorry, you're right, it's 22.5.

Newport "only" 21c but watch Newport make a comeback. Its often warmer there as some of the rest cool. 23.9c yesterday....they might still get over 26.

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.

Thanks GL, and that makes sense. Wouldn't you think that this glaring obviousness would have registered in my brain?

@ Danno, I think that those same charts had higher temperatures for you earlier in the day before the body of warmth shifted somewhat more northwards as per that 5pm chart. The reason I posted that particular one is because maxima tends to peak around that time at this time of year.

Warm weather is cool.

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

1 pm:

24 °C - Shannon, Costume Baracks, Belmullet, Claremorris, Mount Dillon,

I can confirm it is roasting on south mayo
Heavenly