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29 degrees possible May 28th.

  • 27-05-2020 11:25am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Temperatures into the high 20s possible tomorrow in the west of Connaught according to Met Eireann.


    TOMORROW - Thursday 28th May

    Tomorrow, Thursday will be a warm day and locally it will feel hot. It will be dry and sunny widely
    and winds will be light to moderate from a southeast direction, locally fresh. Temperatures will be
    25 degrees in the afternoon widely across the province,
    and as high as 29 degrees in local spots in the west of the province.


    could we reach 30? whats the record high for May in Ireland.

    What ever happens tommorow looks sweltering in the west.Bring it on.


«134

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 892 ✭✭✭ never_mind


    Tomorrow is the 28th but yes, BRING IT ON!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Wikipedia has 28.4c as the record for May though lots of Mays seem hot at the end


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I think 26 will probably be the max, maybe a 27C at Shannon Airport or Oak Park. Most of the models are going for 22 to 25C Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

    Czh5dSg.png

    So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

    I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Danno wrote: »
    One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

    Good point!!! The depth of dryness in the soil combined with the sun getting ever closer to maximum strength means that evenings and nights have the potential to be rather warm for the rest of the week, where there is little or no wind. Like a stone wall that has been absorbing heat from the sun all day which then radiates the heat after the sun sets, the ground is becoming deeply warm and that too will radiate the heat stored during the day but on a much much bigger scale, in an almost continental climate fashion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly


    I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭ amadangomor


    I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen. :D

    :D

    I presume turning the screen brightness up doesn't help?

    If ok with the OP can we use this as a prediction thread for the highest peak and location?

    I'm going with Claremorris on Thursday 28.0C


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

    So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

    I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

    I remember 29C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

    Remind us.


    I go with 26.4 for North Kerry


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

    it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

    edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

    edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.

    That's a different kettle of fish :pac:
    Remind us.


    I go with 26.4 for North Kerry

    It was the only thing that suggested even close to 29C (correction on the 30C) on that day in May 2018 and the official highest temperature was 26.5C at Glenties, Donegal. Can't find the screenshot although it was posted in the Spring 2018 thread somewhere.
    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Nowhere else other than their temperature map suggests temperatures even close to 29c on Tuesday.

    For instance, here's their old temperature map.

    c5ADGUm.png

    Also, their national forecast states high teens to low 20s at best.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Danno wrote: »
    One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

    Washed the concrete path that runs along the back of my house this morning, and it is still wet, suggesting that out of the sun (which the path has been all day) drying is actually quite poor today.

    I think one thing to consider for tomorrow temp potential is that pressure will be declining to the east, which could mean that a fair breeze could be springing up during the day which could prevent temps from rising as high as the forecast 29c. Forecast chart for tomorrow around the time, or shortly before, temps are expected to peak:

    RUbpvTX.png


    During the 3 days of 30c + back in late June 2018, it also got very breezy during the afternoon, but the air mass was drier and the sun stronger which would have allowed temps to climb as high as they did during that spell.

    All up for grabs tomorrow me thinks. I'm sceptical but who knows. Also, seems to be a bit of shear going on tomorrow so chance of a surprise shower bubbling up if temps do climb sufficiently?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Met Eireann's 'Yesterday's Weather' report for that day Syran:

    hHm8DuY.png

    And their badly missed weather map showing the set up:

    Jn9ppQw.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,294 ✭✭✭ davo2001


    Got up to 26.4 for me at my weather station today, oddly enough, not an overly sunny day, pretty overcast.

    https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLI26


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,462 ✭✭✭ jimmynokia


    Any chance of some sparks in the next few days


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Tomorrow afternoon's temperature anomaly forecast from the latest model run:

    XdzucxA.png

    Warm everywhere, but if 29c is to be achieved, it'll most likely be somewhere within that darkest red region on that map.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Back at the end of June 2018, when Shannon carpark hit 32.0 °C, afternoon 500-1000 thickness was around 569 dam and 850 temperature 16 °C. The next warmest synop station that day was Gurteen, which hit 29.9 °C.

    Tomorrow looks more like 560 dam and 13-14 °C T850. A southeasterly flow will make warmest areas more up towards the northwestern midlands. Various sounding indicate 25-27 possible at a couple of stations (Mount Dillon, Claremorris, etc.) but that's at a stretch, relying on the feedback from dry ground to get the extra degree or two. It will be an interesting one to watch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,833 ✭✭✭✭ neris


    I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen. :D

    bring back giant ledgers & the quill & ink


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭ piuswal


    pauldry wrote: »
    Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks

    Newport Furnace for me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,815 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    A 27c+ is likely in Connaught particularly toward the west.

    How widespread remains to be seen.

    Friday will be very warm to with mid 20's generally.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    Newport for me and 27.8°


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno wrote: »
    Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois

    Bit of a SE breeze going, and temperatures holding just below 20°c


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    20.0c now in Dublin 16. Light east breeze, so I don't foresee any dramatic temps here today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    20.9c Valentia 10pm


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:

    zuxzHLK.png

    I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:



    I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

    It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

    I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.


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