29 degrees possible May 28th.

squarecircles

Temperatures into the high 20s possible tomorrow in the west of Connaught according to Met Eireann.


TOMORROW - Thursday 28th May

Tomorrow, Thursday will be a warm day and locally it will feel hot. It will be dry and sunny widely
and winds will be light to moderate from a southeast direction, locally fresh. Temperatures will be
25 degrees in the afternoon widely across the province,
and as high as 29 degrees in local spots in the west of the province.


could we reach 30? whats the record high for May in Ireland.

What ever happens tommorow looks sweltering in the west.Bring it on.

never_mind

Tomorrow is the 28th but yes, BRING IT ON!

pauldry

Wikipedia has 28.4c as the record for May though lots of Mays seem hot at the end

Gonzo

I think 26 will probably be the max, maybe a 27C at Shannon Airport or Oak Park. Most of the models are going for 22 to 25C Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Oneiric 3

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:



So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

Danno

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

highdef

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Good point!!! The depth of dryness in the soil combined with the sun getting ever closer to maximum strength means that evenings and nights have the potential to be rather warm for the rest of the week, where there is little or no wind. Like a stone wall that has been absorbing heat from the sun all day which then radiates the heat after the sun sets, the ground is becoming deeply warm and that too will radiate the heat stored during the day but on a much much bigger scale, in an almost continental climate fashion.

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

amadangomor

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

I presume turning the screen brightness up doesn't help?

If ok with the OP can we use this as a prediction thread for the highest peak and location?

I'm going with Claremorris on Thursday 28.0C

pauldry

Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

I remember 29C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

Remind us.


I go with 26.4 for North Kerry

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.

That's a different kettle of fish :pac:

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Remind us.


I go with 26.4 for North Kerry

It was the only thing that suggested even close to 29C (correction on the 30C) on that day in May 2018 and the official highest temperature was 26.5C at Glenties, Donegal. Can't find the screenshot although it was posted in the Spring 2018 thread somewhere.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nowhere else other than their temperature map suggests temperatures even close to 29c on Tuesday.

For instance, here's their old temperature map.



Also, their national forecast states high teens to low 20s at best.

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Washed the concrete path that runs along the back of my house this morning, and it is still wet, suggesting that out of the sun (which the path has been all day) drying is actually quite poor today.

I think one thing to consider for tomorrow temp potential is that pressure will be declining to the east, which could mean that a fair breeze could be springing up during the day which could prevent temps from rising as high as the forecast 29c. Forecast chart for tomorrow around the time, or shortly before, temps are expected to peak:




During the 3 days of 30c + back in late June 2018, it also got very breezy during the afternoon, but the air mass was drier and the sun stronger which would have allowed temps to climb as high as they did during that spell.

All up for grabs tomorrow me thinks. I'm sceptical but who knows. Also, seems to be a bit of shear going on tomorrow so chance of a surprise shower bubbling up if temps do climb sufficiently?

Oneiric 3

Met Eireann's 'Yesterday's Weather' report for that day Syran:



And their badly missed weather map showing the set up:

davo2001

Got up to 26.4 for me at my weather station today, oddly enough, not an overly sunny day, pretty overcast.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLI26

jimmynokia

Any chance of some sparks in the next few days

Oneiric 3

Tomorrow afternoon's temperature anomaly forecast from the latest model run:



Warm everywhere, but if 29c is to be achieved, it'll most likely be somewhere within that darkest red region on that map.

Gaoth Laidir

Back at the end of June 2018, when Shannon carpark hit 32.0 °C, afternoon 500-1000 thickness was around 569 dam and 850 temperature 16 °C. The next warmest synop station that day was Gurteen, which hit 29.9 °C.

Tomorrow looks more like 560 dam and 13-14 °C T850. A southeasterly flow will make warmest areas more up towards the northwestern midlands. Various sounding indicate 25-27 possible at a couple of stations (Mount Dillon, Claremorris, etc.) but that's at a stretch, relying on the feedback from dry ground to get the extra degree or two. It will be an interesting one to watch.

neris

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

bring back giant ledgers & the quill & ink

piuswal

pauldry wrote: »

Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks

Newport Furnace for me.

Kermit.de.frog

A 27c+ is likely in Connaught particularly toward the west.

How widespread remains to be seen.

Friday will be very warm to with mid 20's generally.

John mac

Newport for me and 27.8°

Danno

Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois

Danno

Danno wrote: »

Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois

Bit of a SE breeze going, and temperatures holding just below 20°c

DOCARCH

20.0c now in Dublin 16. Light east breeze, so I don't foresee any dramatic temps here today.

pauldry

20.9c Valentia 10pm

Oneiric 3

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:



I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

cameramonkey

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=laptop+sun+shade&adgrpid=62021508207&gclid=Cj0KCQjwwr32BRD4ARIsAAJNf_3h7EHyBuu5_OaozWwy6Y5wRIlmBICBdUsbrDCPtIblcKI4aZhVQuQaAvc8EALw_wcB&hvadid=291314274897&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=1007850&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=7484900456260038640&hvtargid=kwd-295849093333&hydadcr=2661_1761551&tag=googiehydra-21&ref=pd_sl_8kd0ifh6vb_b


get outside for some vitamin D.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:



I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.

pauldry

22c Mt Dillon 11am

Gonzo

the forecasts and models were always going for max 26, maybe hinting at 27C. Not sure where the 29C came from, that would be an incredible temperature to reach and records would be broken. 26 or 27C in May is still a fantastic achievement for Irish weather in general.

Gaoth Laidir

22 C at Shannon and Costume Baracks (Athlone) at 11.30. Costume baracks will be interesting to watch as it's located in the centre of the town and more representative of an urban area.

Danno

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:

It has me at 21°c max, but already 23°c here in south Laois!

Meteorite58

21.5C a short time ago here near Tralee.

Cloud around 5/8

pauldry

Yup my 28.4c prediction way over the top

Probably mount Dillon will top whatever they get 26 or 27.

Other parts of west might touch 26

Neddyusa

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

22 C at Shannon and Costume Baracks (Athlone) at 11.30. Costume baracks will be interesting to watch as it's located in the centre of the town and more representative of an urban area.

With the breeze today why would Athlone would have any different temperatures than surrounding rural areas?

Gaoth Laidir

Mount Dillon 23 at midday. All others 22 or less.

Gaoth Laidir

Neddyusa wrote: »

With the breeze today why would Athlone would have any different temperatures than surrounding rural areas?

It depends on how much the breeze gets up. At the moment it's southeast 6 knots there.

It's a large concreted area in an urban setting so more in line with many people's locations. With a southeasterly or easterly breeze it gets air from an urban source.

https://www.google.com/maps/@53.4244003,-7.9478849,306m/data=!3m1!1e3

Regardsgreen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Mount Dillon 23 at midday. All others 22 or less.

Belmullet is 23.

Gaoth Laidir

Regardsgreen wrote: »

Belmullet is 23.

Sorry, you're right, it's 22.5.

pauldry

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sorry, you're right, it's 22.5.

Newport "only" 21c but watch Newport make a comeback. Its often warmer there as some of the rest cool. 23.9c yesterday....they might still get over 26.

Danno

Hovering between 22°c and 23°c the last while now in a 10mph southeasterly. South Laois.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.

Thanks GL, and that makes sense. Wouldn't you think that this glaring obviousness would have registered in my brain?

@ Danno, I think that those same charts had higher temperatures for you earlier in the day before the body of warmth shifted somewhat more northwards as per that 5pm chart. The reason I posted that particular one is because maxima tends to peak around that time at this time of year.

23 at noon today.
North Kerry.
Getting cloudy now

Danno

Gone above 23°c now and the breeze has dropped slightly here in south Laois.

Danno

And all of a shot 24°c reached just on the stroke of 1pm!

Kaybaykwah

Warm weather is cool.

Gaoth Laidir

1 pm:

24 °C - Shannon, Costume Baracks, Belmullet, Claremorris, Mount Dillon,

km79

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

1 pm:

24 °C - Shannon, Costume Baracks, Belmullet, Claremorris, Mount Dillon,

I can confirm it is roasting on south mayo
Heavenly