Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

joeysoap · 14-01-2019 1:35am

sdanseo wrote: »

Shower of muppets. About the same level of accuracy as the famous forecasting stone.

Was in San Fran a few weeks ago. Accuweather showing 16km visability and no precip for 120 mins.

It was raining and you couldn’t see more than 100m. ( you couldn’t see the Golden Gate Bridge from the Alcatraz ferry.) I checked a few times. Wrong every time. (FWIW it was beautiful after that day)

Unaccuweather more like.

force eleven · 14-01-2019 6:58am

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes at this stage there’s no point in trying to dress it up. It’s typical January winter fare as we see out the month. Wintry showers in on a PM airmass with sleet and wet snow to hills in the north and NW.
Strongly agree with YanSno about AO and NAO

This is what it looks like after latest GFS. And after the rubbish blandness we've had for weeks, at least it will be a tad more interesting. But no severe or deep cold it looks like, at least for this month.

BLIZZARD7 · 14-01-2019 7:09am

force eleven wrote: »

This is what it looks like after latest GFS. And after the rubbish blandness we've had for weeks, at least it will be a tad more interesting. But no severe or deep cold it looks like, at least for this month.

The models are all over the place for next week, never mind the later part of Jan- first slider low still needs to be resolved, then look towards Scandi/Svalbard for height rises later on (25th onwards) I wouldn't bet on no deep cold before months end yet.

Graces7 · 14-01-2019 7:17am

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

My wife lit a fire today for the sake of it.

It was around 12c!!!

Very mild in Limerick.

Not lit a fire for days but will need to today,, west mayo offshore

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 7:27am

Model output has been deteriorating in terms of very cold solutions from 20th in the operationals over the last 2 days. Very messy stuff, and disappointing. GFS and GFS para are showing more northwesterly polar maritime than clean northerlies or northeast sourced cold. I haven’t had a chance to look at ensembles yet this morning but usually if the op is consistent with a downgrade they start to follow. ECM wasn’t great last night. New one rolling out now

BLIZZARD7 · 14-01-2019 7:37am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Model output has been deteriorating in terms of very cold solutions from 20th in the operationals over the last 2 days. Very messy stuff, and disappointing. GFS and GFS para are showing more northwesterly polar maritime than clean northerlies or northeast sourced cold. I haven’t had a chance to look at ensembles yet this morning but usually if the op is consistent with a downgrade they start to follow. ECM wasn’t great last night. New one rolling out now

UKMO/GEM and ECM are all better than the GFS output and are showing quite a different scenario at days 5/6- this isn't resolved at all yet.

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 8:23am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

UKMO/GEM and ECM are all better than the GFS output and are showing quite a different scenario at days 5/6- this isn't resolved at all yet.

I don’t think either ECM or UKMO are showing much in line of snow though? We are looking at month end this morning whereas last Friday’s output across all models was showing snow potential from approx Jan 21st. Just saying what I see. A fired up jet is always bad news for cold here

sryanbruen · 14-01-2019 8:24am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I don’t think either ECM or UKMO are showing much in line of snow though? We are looking at month end this morning whereas last Friday’s output across all models was showing snow potential from approx Jan 21st. Just saying what I see. A fired up jet is always bad news for cold here

Rome wasn’t built in a day, get the cold in first before thinking about snow.

titan18 · 14-01-2019 8:29am

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

Lucreto · 14-01-2019 8:44am

titan18 wrote: »

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

I know how you feel. It feels like a dangling carrot situation. The cold is always 2 weeks away, no matter how much we move forward it's always out of reach.

The cold will probably get to us in May or June when it's not wanted.

esposito · 14-01-2019 8:52am

I think talk about the jet being fired up is a bit premature. Of course if it does happen, it might not necessarily lead to overly mild conditions, could well be polar maritime air which obviously isn’t as good as polar continental but it’s better than mild SW’s anyday. Plenty to be resolved yet.

munsterlegend · 14-01-2019 8:52am

At least we’ll be loaded for the summer holidays with all the the saved heating costs! Even if it doesn’tget too cold at least the weather will be a bit more interesting in the coming weeks.

Graces7 · 14-01-2019 9:56am

Very still and silent out here but darkening skies now. Birds are going song-crazy..Ominous... west mayo offshore

munsterlegend · 14-01-2019 9:57am

Graces7 wrote: »

Very still and silent out here but darkening skies now. Birds are going song-crazy..Ominous... west mayo offshore

Have to love the dramatic language! I think film scripts could be your thing grace

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-01-2019 10:21am

A chill in the air this morning.

Neddyusa · 14-01-2019 11:01am

Lucreto wrote: »

titan18 wrote: »

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

I know how you feel. It feels like a dangling carrot situation. The cold is always 2 weeks away, no matter how much we move forward it's always out of reach.

The cold will probably get to us in May or June when it's not wanted.

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

Rebelbrowser · 14-01-2019 11:12am

Neddyusa wrote: »

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

Yoy are trying to beat the odds looking for decent snow in Ireland. Typically we see snow lying for more than a day every 5 years or so. Most years we get a few coverings that last a few hours. This year there is a good chance of the latter in the next fortnight. There is also I would say a 50% chance of the former in February (that's a gut sense only btw). I will take that any year.

Mortelaro · 14-01-2019 11:33am

Neddyusa wrote: »

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

I think though to be fair,what regular model watchers have been doing since Xmas is watching the strat warming and waiting for its effects(together with other global atmospherics watched already)
The time table for that has always been last week in January and on into February
That has not changed at all at all
The expectation at the start was that increasingly cold options would appear in output (they have) reacting slowly to the new news but FI caveats applying, how mad they'd become and whether versions of them would get into sub 120 output
There was always the expectation I think that en route to wherever this was going we,'d vary from the bland to the extreme

diceyd · 14-01-2019 11:40am

Open for business?

Gonzo · 14-01-2019 11:41am

poor enough ensemble run for Dunshaughlin this morning, with once again a wide variation of outcomes after 21st of January, still some cold members but more mild ones than yesterday.

Dickie10 · 14-01-2019 11:45am

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 11:50am

GFS 6z continues with a familiar theme, very pronounced jet stream diving through ireland right into the FI time-frame eroding any significant chance of snow. The downgrades continue. A very depressing run.

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 11:51am

Dickie10 wrote: »

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

No shortage of rain on the way

Mortelaro · 14-01-2019 11:58am

Gonzo wrote: »

poor enough ensemble run for Dunshaughlin this morning, with once again a wide variation of outcomes after 21st of January, still some cold members but more mild ones than yesterday.

GFS ensembles?
I wouldn't be too worried about their FI output,scorching or freezing

Graces7 · 14-01-2019 12:12pm

Dickie10 wrote: »

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

Agree; totally wonderful and easy on us. Pottering about outside with no coat.... even sitting out..Loving it.

Graces7 · 14-01-2019 12:14pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Have to love the dramatic language! I think film scripts could be your thing grace

do they pay well? lol... Need money! no viable car any more!

sryanbruen · 14-01-2019 12:55pm

Notice how the colder than average 850hPa temperature anomalies retain themselves on the GEFS over the UK and Ireland regardless of what is happening over in the US, yes the air is mainly polar maritime sourced.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1084457544238559235

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 1:19pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

GFS ensembles?
I wouldn't be too worried about their FI output,scorching or freezing

Crucially ECM ensembles are also relaxing on any exceptional cold. There are still hard cold options in both suites, and by hard cold I mean snow and ice and day temperatures near freezing or below. Friday just gone was pretty much the peak in model output for cold options on way from around January 21st, with spectacular ensembles appearing and a number of incredibly cold operational runs. Since then the pendulum has begun to swing toward rather messy crap for our side of the world.

For me, I have to say I’m quite disappointed. I think the SSW effects are now in play and the models are getting a slow handle on what they mean for the troposphere albeit still with a lot of uncertainty the probability is swinging toward deep low pressure systems bringing colder polar maritime air than we’ve seen for a while but true hard cold not likely, ie deep northerlies and extended arctic troughs or north easterlies. Early February may bring better solutions. Winter is not over but the clock is ticking.

novarock · 14-01-2019 1:28pm

Sorry lads, I jinxed it... delivery expected the 25th...

munsterlegend · 14-01-2019 1:47pm

novarock wrote: »

Sorry lads, I jinxed it... delivery expected the 25th...

No all my fault. Mentioned it to my family members after the morning runs yesterday that snow was on the way next week.

esposito · 14-01-2019 1:48pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Since then the pendulum has begun to swing toward rather messy crap for our side of the world.
.

Who’s to say the pendulum won’t swing back towards deep cold.

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

giveitholly · 14-01-2019 1:49pm

If real cold hits the east coast of America will that only stir up the Atlantic and send weather systems barrelling into us?

esposito · 14-01-2019 1:51pm

giveitholly wrote: »

If real cold hits the east coast of America will that only stir up the Atlantic and send weather systems barrelling into us?

It has happened many times in the past but it is not a certainty.

KingdomRushed · 14-01-2019 2:09pm

esposito wrote: »

Who’s to say the pendulum won’t swing back towards deep cold.

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

I know it potentially can, but the output shown today for say Jan 22nd is far more likely than the output which was showing for the same date 3 days ago. As we approach the hinge-point of a major pattern change the models should now be picking up what that will mean better and sadly they are beginning to sniff out a powerful jet stream overriding any tendency for high altitude blocking in this part of world despite major displacement of vortex sections

ninebeanrows · 14-01-2019 2:12pm

The extended EC forecast is issued tonight.

Would be a disappointment to see it fall back from its strong signal for cold weather and high latitude blocking.

However the last 48 hours hasn’t filled me with confidence.

Will be interesting to see what it delivers.

igCorcaigh · 14-01-2019 2:33pm

Are we there yet?

sryanbruen · 14-01-2019 2:52pm

GEFS have suddenly pointed towards -NAO for the end of January now with more than 80% showing at least -0.01 sigma. Indicative of the Greenland blocking they’ve been showing near the end of the fourth week of January onwards. Let’s see this being a consistent signal rather than just a present observation. This is based on the ensemble mean - there is good differences between the individual members with a huge spread to the south of Greenland.

The rollercoaster goes on. The outlook is still not any clearer.

Gonzo · 14-01-2019 3:16pm

esposito wrote: »

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

the event last year was exceptional, but I still reckon even February 27th is verging on late. We scored a direct hit with great depth of cold and huge falls of snow so considering that it was running into March, this direct hit of cold and high precipitation lead to a perfect storm. If the same event was not a direct hit, we may not have fared so well.

If this had happened a few weeks earlier, the freeze would have been much more severe and we would not have had the dripping sounds during daylight.

We still have about 4 to 5 weeks of prime time winter left, so fingers crossed that we get what we're all desperately looking for by mid February at the very latest.

Sycamore Tree · 14-01-2019 5:18pm

I think this Phoney War period is driving people (including myself) a bit nutty.

Jaysus at this point we are badly in need of a few hailstones or some wet sleet.

endainoz · 14-01-2019 5:50pm

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

SleetAndSnow · 14-01-2019 5:53pm

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

yeah its hard for a farmer but as has been said a lot, this is a weather forum. You are going to find that the majority of people in this forum like extreme weather events to analyze them and just look at them in general, and if there is a chance of snow and ice then hope just jumps!

Mortelaro · 14-01-2019 5:59pm

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

In here those considerations are way outweighed by the excitement of extreme weather,especially snow and thunder etc
Its a minority excitement
Although everyone does get excited about extremes,it wanes quickly when it becomes a nuisance or affects livelihood etc
In here it doesn't wane,it's a place where enthusiasts come to compare share and hope with weather charts

SleetAndSnow · 14-01-2019 6:18pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1084858682834411521

Igotadose · 14-01-2019 6:21pm

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

not wanting frost, but damn there are way too many flying insects still around. We need some sustained cold to reduce their numbers.

Gonzo · 14-01-2019 6:22pm

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

many people here have a great interest in the extremes of weather that rarely effect Ireland.

Our climate generally has a relatively small difference with temperature and
precipitation between Summer and Winter compared to most other places such as North America, much of Europe and Asia. Our proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Atlantic Drift keeps us in similar weather types throughout the year.

This is why many people here wish for extremes, particularly during Summer and Winter. The most popular weather scenarios wished for here include:

- Easterly based severe cold outbreaks with snow storms preferably end of November - mid February.
- Deep easterly based prolonged snow showers with thunderstorm activity - thundersnow.
- Deep cold high pressures in winter with severe frost or freezing fog and sunshine by day.
- some like Atlantic based extremely stormy conditions with huge rainfall totals and very high or extreme winds.
- Hot, dry and sunny conditions in the summer, preferably end of May to beginning of September, the higher the temperatures the better.
- Hot and thundery conditions, fork lightning, hailstones, an extremely rare weather event, some parts of Ireland hasn't experienced this since 1985.

Temperature wise Ireland is mostly in the 8 to 18C range throughout the year during daylight hours. Only sometimes does most of Ireland get above 18C in the Summer and under 8C in the winter.

Defaulter1831 · 14-01-2019 6:28pm

Gonzo wrote: »

many people here have a great interest in the extremes of weather that rarely effect Ireland.

Our climate generally has a relatively small difference with temperature and
precipitation between Summer and Winter compared to most other places such as North America, much of Europe and Asia. Our proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Atlantic Drift keeps us in similar weather types throughout the year.

This is why many people here wish for extremes, particularly during Summer and Winter. The most popular weather scenarios wished for here include:

- Easterly based severe cold outbreaks with snow storms preferably end of November - mid February.
- Deep easterly based prolonged snow showers with thunderstorm activity - thundersnow.
- Deep cold high pressures in winter with severe frost or freezing fog and sunshine by day.
- some like Atlantic based extremely stormy conditions with huge rainfall totals and very high or extreme winds.
- Hot, dry and sunny conditions in the summer, preferably end of May to beginning of September, the higher the temperatures the better.
- Hot and thundery conditions, fork lightning, hailstones, an extremely rare weather event, some parts of Ireland hasn't experienced this since 1985.

Temperature wise Ireland is mostly in the 8 to 18C range throughout the year during daylight hours. Only sometimes does most of Ireland get above 18C in the Summer and under 8C in the winter.

The average summer daytime temperature is 17/18C to 20/21C.

And most winters the daily average is 6-9C.

Mortelaro · 14-01-2019 6:29pm

Gonzo,you forgot hot hail,earthquakes and volcanoes...
If we could get three rock to erupt,we'd be in with a chance for all three

Franz Von Peppercorn · 14-01-2019 6:35pm

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

The average summer daytime temperature is 17/18C to 20/21C.

And most winters the daily average is 6-9C.

That’s pretty much what he said.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 14-01-2019 6:36pm

anyway if the snow is off I have to sell sh1t loads of bread. Pm if interested.

Defaulter1831 · 14-01-2019 6:37pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That’s pretty much what he said.

He said only sometimes is most of the country over 18C in summer. I wouldn't agree. Most of the country is over 18C most days in July and August, a fair bit of June and September too. I'd up that a notch and say only some days is most of the country over 20C in summer.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments