The Celtic Tiger is beginning to roar.....says David McWilliams?

Mr. CooL ICE · 03-09-2014 11:16am

Valetta wrote: »

A well reasoned argument there Nic.

Backed up with evidence based links to counter the article. :rolleyes:

It's the economy. Not a game of monopoly.

Larbre34 · 03-09-2014 11:20am

"Consumer credit will become more available". Well thats just super Davey, sure didn't it do us no harm at all the last time? I really hope the Germans read some of this tripe and stick a jackboot in the door just in time, cos frankly we arent fit to be let out on our own. As Frankfurter Allgemeine said recently in a column, and something that should be stuck up on a static screen every evening while the Angelus is playing "IRELAND'S DEBT HAS NOT GONE AWAY YOU KNOW"

Go away McWilliams, you and your ilk have no credibility.

Valetta · 03-09-2014 11:35am

Nicolas Cage wrote: »

It's the economy. Not a game of monopoly.

It's an article specifically about our hotel industry.

Do you have any reason to believe we won't need up to 5,000 more rooms by 2020?

If so, I'd be interested in hearing them.

Otherwise you're just taking the populist line of "everything bad, bul****, blah blah"

Valetta · 03-09-2014 11:36am

Larbre34 wrote: »

"Consumer credit will become more available". Well thats just super Davey, sure didn't it do us no harm at all the last time? I really hope the Germans read some of this tripe and stick a jackboot in the door just in time, cos frankly we arent fit to be let out on our own. As Frankfurter Allgemeine said recently in a column, and something that should be stuck up on a static screen every evening while the Angelus is playing "IRELAND'S DEBT HAS NOT GONE AWAY YOU KNOW"

Go away McWilliams, you and your ilk have no credibility.

A healthy economy needs consumer credit to thrive.

smash · 03-09-2014 11:38am

Larbre34 wrote: »

I really hope the Germans read some of this tripe and stick a jackboot in the door just in time, cos frankly we arent fit to be let out on our own.

Would you ever feck off, the Germans are a race of obnoxious self righteous gits. I want nothing to do with them!

Barely There · 03-09-2014 11:45am

smash wrote: »

Would you ever feck off, the Germans are a race of obnoxious self righteous gits. I want nothing to do with them!

I'd miss their Weissbiers.

Chairman Meow · 03-09-2014 11:45am

Its like these fools measure a recovery solely based on house prices and rent. "House prices are up!! Were saved!!", yeah, yet the average joe still has less money in his pocket thanks to USC charges, property tax, water tax, you know, all those fun things the government brought in to try and make a few extra quid to un-**** what the banks did to us. Get rid of USC, property taxes and all that ****, so that I can actually see a few extra quid in my bank account at the end of the month, and maybe then, ill be okay with this 'Recovery'.

RoboRat · 03-09-2014 11:49am

Policy in Ireland has undoubtedly prolonged the slump. If you examine how quickly the UK, with its own exchange rate, or the US, with a massive fiscal expansion, came out of recession, there's little argument on this point.

The UK and the US have their own currencies, therefore had a lot more manoeuvrability to get out quicker.

Things are picking up, I have no doubt about that but I won't get my passport and festival wellies out yet. I just hope that this time around we learn from our lesson although that is not looking likely.

Golovkin p4p best · 03-09-2014 11:50am

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Its like these fools measure a recovery solely based on house prices and rent. "House prices are up!! Were saved!!", yeah, yet the average joe still has less money in his pocket thanks to USC charges, property tax, water tax, you know, all those fun things the government brought in to try and make a few extra quid to un-**** what the banks did to us. Get rid of USC, property taxes and all that ****, so that I can actually see a few extra quid in my bank account at the end of the month, and maybe then, ill be okay with this 'Recovery'.

The state of the economy isn't measured by how much spare cash you have, it's measured by the quantity of products and services produced.

RoboRat · 03-09-2014 11:59am

I have to say, for all the cringeworthyness of 'the gathering' it appears to have been a bit of a masterstroke. Tourism has rocketed this year and if the tourists have a good time, it will continue to grow so I can see the reasoning for new hotels.

Mr. CooL ICE · 03-09-2014 11:59am

Valetta wrote: »

It's an article specifically about our hotel industry.

Do you have any reason to believe we won't need up to 5,000 more rooms by 2020?

If so, I'd be interested in hearing them.

Otherwise you're just taking the populist line of "everything bad, bul****, blah blah"

Not a populist line, just skeptical. I take reports like this with a heavy, heavy pinch of salt. I'm not doubting that some more hotels might be needed, but 30? That's a fcuking ridiculous overestimation and just begging for a larger grant for ITIC.

Same skepticism for when the dean of computer science of whatever university claiming the industry needs 5,000 new IT graduates, when there are already thousands of inexperienced graduates floating around.

RoboRat · 03-09-2014 12:03pm

For those who are saying they haven't got more money, I reckon the likes of the USC etc will be cut back and possibly phased out.

Also, a thriving economy makes more jobs... more jobs means more opportunities to move to higher paid jobs... this means that companies will have to increase wages to keep their top talent. During the recession there were fcuk all jobs so people had no leverage and companies also had no money (or feigned to have none) so many were not getting increases - many felt they couldn't ask for fear of upsetting the apple cart. This should filter through in 2015 if the economy keeps growing.

wretcheddomain · 03-09-2014 12:04pm

You know when somebody hasn't a clue about economics or the state of the economy when they trot out the usual negative bull****.

03-09-2014 12:06pm

There is always a roar before a death rattle.

Gummy Panda · 03-09-2014 12:09pm

Pulled pork gaps. Its a sign of a new boom. Sure KFC now have pulled chicken burgers on the menu. This one is going to be crazier than the last.

catallus · 03-09-2014 12:10pm

I think you mean sexier, not crazier.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2014 12:12pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In fairness it's hard not to argue that all the economic indicators seem to point to a robust recovery.

Yes, and it's pretty feckin late for McWilliams to notice. From his article:

I have been in denial this year about what I was seeing around me, but now the time has come to say with a certain degree of confidence that the economy is likely to rebound much more strongly than most are expecting.

He is predicting what was announced yesterday! Waster.

whiskeyman · 03-09-2014 12:15pm

We're a small open economy, so we'll do well if the big economies around us are doing well.
If they get fooked again, we will too.

We / our polticians need to stop taking credit for something we've very little, if any, control on.

Barely There · 03-09-2014 12:15pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, and it's pretty feckin late for McWilliams to notice. From his article:

I have been in denial this year about what I was seeing around me, but now the time has come to say with a certain degree of confidence that the economy is likely to rebound much more strongly than most are expecting.

He is predicting what was announced yesterday! Waster.

Yes, but if you predict events after they've already happened, you have a significantly better chance of being right.

OldNotWIse · 03-09-2014 12:16pm

Will they be giving out free money again? Can't wait to buy a couple of Bulgarian apartments on my credit card, rip out the 12 month old bathroom suite and stick another conservatory onto the last spare side of our house. Better buy another house quick - they wont be at these prices for long!

eviltimeban · 03-09-2014 12:56pm

OldNotWIse wrote: »

Will they be giving out free money again? Can't wait to buy a couple of Bulgarian apartments on my credit card, rip out the 12 month old bathroom suite and stick another conservatory onto the last spare side of our house. Better buy another house quick - they wont be at these prices for long!

Just in time to pop over to New York for Christmas shopping!

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2014 1:01pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnCtav9OsV8

Mr.McLovin · 03-09-2014 1:05pm

eviltimeban wrote: »

Just in time to pop over to New York for Christmas shopping!

Just in time for the labour to give me a bonus for crimbo

dutch gold on the house!

OldNotWIse · 03-09-2014 1:08pm

http://www.dailyedge.ie/13-things-from-the-celtic-tiger-you-dont-see-anymore-911935-May2013/

Hmmmm apparently the website is called "itsyourmoney.ie" - really? Stop fuucking taking it then!

Saipanne · 03-09-2014 1:41pm

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Its like these fools measure a recovery solely based on house prices and rent. "House prices are up!! Were saved!!", yeah, yet the average joe still has less money in his pocket thanks to USC charges, property tax, water tax, you know, all those fun things the government brought in to try and make a few extra quid to un-**** what the banks did to us. Get rid of USC, property taxes and all that ****, so that I can actually see a few extra quid in my bank account at the end of the month, and maybe then, ill be okay with this 'Recovery'.

Champagne?

wrt40 · 03-09-2014 1:53pm

Damn I was enjoying this recession. There's nothing worse than knackers on planes.

The Strawman Argument · 03-09-2014 2:09pm

I've known the recession was over ever since I heard people talking about building new housing estates in Longford and Edgeworthstown.
I've known there'll be another one within a few years ever since I heard people talking about building new housing estates in Longford and Edgeworthstown.

average hero · 03-09-2014 2:12pm

David McWilliams is an economist and in fairness most of the economic indicators are looking up. He points out that it will be a while for unemployment to improve or people to see more cash in their pockets.

As previously stated, we are very heavily linked with the rest of the globalised world and global markets so if one of our big partners has a hiccup, we'll feel it.

With that being said, corruption is still endemic in the country. In my opinion we haven't sorted out the 'cronyism' that occurs so very often in this country. I would hope that the banks are more tightly regulated but we need to get the people in power to be more in it for the social and communal good rather than lining their own pockets with fat pensions etc.

Idbatterim · 03-09-2014 2:13pm

Quote:
Originally Posted by kneemos View Post
Pretty much guaranteed to be tax relief next year with an election due in 2016.
I'm quite excited. In fact it's nearly enough to make you vote Labour! Let the great public sector votes buying begin...

not sure if this is sarcasm or not. Labour have increased the time it has taken to get out of recession and they FF like will be the first to want to start throwing the cash out like confetti again! They are a major bloody threat to our future IMO, yeah things will be on the up here now, its the lack of prudence now though that may well be our undoing again in 5-10 years...

The lack of confidence is what resulted in people hoarding money or putting off buying, yes a large amount of people dont have any money left at the end of the week or month, lots do though and / or had large amounts saved but simply had it lying in the bank mainly earning interest below the level of inflation. There are tens of billions if not more on deposit here, I will try and find the exact figure...

Barely There · 03-09-2014 2:14pm

I'm going to fire up the jet ski tonight and ride it round my hot tub like it's 2006.

Tony EH · 03-09-2014 2:15pm

Golovkin p4p best wrote: »

Where are all the people who said austerity doesn't work?

They had to go to Canada, America and Australia.

Timberrrrrrrr · 03-09-2014 2:19pm

I used to drive tower cranes on sites and got out just before it all went tits up. I worked for a lot of agencies back then and must be still on their books. Every now and then i would get a call or a text saying a crane driver or banksman needed for short term contracts, Last month i got 4 texts and 6 calls from agencies looking for crane drivers and this and i have had 4 calls since Monday looking for crane drivers. When the cranes start dotting the skyline you know the money is starting to get spent again.

Grayson · 03-09-2014 2:25pm

whiskeyman wrote: »

We're a small open economy, so we'll do well if the big economies around us are doing well.
If they get fooked again, we will too.

We / our polticians need to stop taking credit for something we've very little, if any, control on.

To be fair, we're doing much better than a lot of the large economies that we're surrounded by.

Idbatterim · 03-09-2014 2:40pm

Believe it or not this will benefit everyone including the doubting thomases! What a bloody surprise that in the end the sky didnt fall in... you dont have to get caught up in crazy borrowing or keeping up with the Jones!

kneemos · 03-09-2014 2:47pm

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I used to drive tower cranes on sites and got out just before it all went tits up. I worked for a lot of agencies back then and must be still on their books. Every now and then i would get a call or a text saying a crane driver or banksman needed for short term contracts, Last month i got 4 texts and 6 calls from agencies looking for crane drivers and this and i have had 4 calls since Monday looking for crane drivers. When the cranes start dotting the skyline you know the money is starting to get spent again.

Shortage of tradesmen in the Dublin area according to last night's news.

TwoShedsJackson · 03-09-2014 2:49pm

So if someone states something once, they may never again say anything that contradicts that position, even if referring to a situation occurring 8 to 10 years later, is that what we're getting out of this thread?

Timberrrrrrrr · 03-09-2014 2:50pm

Wonder when the 1st thread will be posted about De bleedin Foredners takin all de jobs

kneemos · 03-09-2014 2:53pm

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Wonder when the 1st thread will be posted about De bleedin Foredners takin all de jobs

We need the foreigners to rent the houses they're going to build to live in.

Davarus Walrus · 03-09-2014 2:55pm

An extremely punitive rate of tax on repeating tired clichés about the last boom might help to curb excess spending. Talking 95-99% rate of tax on gross income if heard mentioning: apartments in Bulgaria, shopping trips to New York, hot tubs in the back garden, decking; helicopters at the Galway Races, jumbo breakfast rolls.

padd b1975 · 03-09-2014 3:04pm

Chairman Meow wrote: »

Get rid of USC, property taxes and all that ****, so that I can actually see a few extra quid in my bank account at the end of the month, and maybe then, ill be okay with this 'Recovery'.

Any proposals on how to plug the massive hole in the public finances this will create??

Davarus Walrus · 03-09-2014 3:09pm

padd b1975 wrote: »

Any proposals on how to plug the massive hole in the public finances this will create??

Outsource the entire public service to Bangladesh.

Specialun · 03-09-2014 3:16pm

I think this article is about Dublin...what about the rest of the country

kneemos · 03-09-2014 3:22pm

Specialun wrote: »

I think this article is about Dublin...what about the rest of the country

Eat potaetoes.

Hoop66 · 03-09-2014 3:27pm

Specialun wrote: »

I think this article is about Dublin...what about the rest of the country

Fuck 'em.

* pays 6 quid for a pint *

smellmepower · 03-09-2014 3:37pm

Specialun wrote: »

I think this article is about Dublin...what about the rest of the country

Probably the parts of Dublin pricks like McWilliams,his mates and Indo buying tossers frequent.

Not much sign of an upturn in the economy around Clondalkin or Ballyfermot.Still massive queues outside the SW and post office's when I pass them on the bus every morning.Local shop a friend works for got over 400 hundred CV's for two jobs they advertised recently too.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2014 3:46pm

smellmepower wrote: »

Not much sign of an upturn in the economy around Clondalkin or Ballyfermot.Still massive queues outside the SW and post office's

Erm, massive queues for social welfare in Clondalkin and Ballyfermot were not unusual during the boom so they are hardly unusual now.

If you said there is massive queues outside the SW in Blackrock or Foxrock it might mean more tbh.

Idbatterim · 03-09-2014 4:02pm

Probably the parts of Dublin pricks like McWilliams,his mates and Indo buying tossers frequent.

Not much sign of an upturn in the economy around Clondalkin or Ballyfermot.Still massive queues outside the SW and post office's when I pass them on the bus every morning.Local shop a friend works for got over 400 hundred CV's for two jobs they advertised recently too.

what do you expect, for it to touch each part exactly the same way and exactly the same time?

jimgoose · 03-09-2014 4:09pm

Ah, we're back I see. Good, good. Everyone under 28 is gone, apartments in the middle of Dublin are costing a million-euro-a-metre on account of a few hundred people working for Google, there's still no en massé blue-collar employment and a Master's degree will just about get you a job at a local Spar. But we are about to start roaring and rollercoasting and all the usual happy horsepuckey. Yays!! :pac:

enda1 · 03-09-2014 4:15pm

As a nurse/primary school teacher/garda I think it is DEFINITELY time to buy 3 off-plan apartments in outer Dublin (Meath/Louth/Longford) with 30 year mortgages and lied about earnings with the intention to flip them in 5 years and retire early.

Definitely

Valetta · 03-09-2014 4:18pm

enda1 wrote: »

As a nurse/primary school teacher/garda I think it is DEFINITELY time to buy 3 off-plan apartments in outer Dublin (Meath/Louth/Longford) with 30 year mortgages and lied about earnings with the intention to flip them in 5 years and retire early.

Definitely

With all those jobs you could afford 5 of them.

The Celtic Tiger is beginning to roar.....says David McWilliams?

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