Arctic Sea Ice Watch

Akrasia · 18-07-2017 9:09am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yet you are there with links to other papers and YouTube videos that support your theory when it suits you. You have selective aptitude, it seems.

Selective aptitude? I have been the one saying we need to take the preponderance of evidence and pointed out that there are 24000 climate change papers published this year alone

I am selective in the papers and 'youtube videos' (a lecture to the royal society by a respected expert in his field) because it's important to choose good sources for your arguments. When Bates chose to refer to Willie Soon and the connollys in his letter to the Irish Farmers Journal it shows that he is not as careful as I am or else he doesn't care that these people are not credible researchers.

It would be like your doctor telling you not to take a vaccine because of something Andrew Wakefield published.

1947 was the record 60 years ago. It was almost half a degree warmer than pre industrial levels. On an underlying warming trend it's no surprise that recent years will be warmer again.

The 'underlying warming trend may actually have been an underlying cooling trend over the last 60 years
The IPCC said that
"The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C, and from internal variability is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C."
So all the warming since at least the 1950s has been very likely (95% confidence) caused by humans.

You might think I'm alarmist. The truth is alarming

Gaoth Laidir · 18-07-2017 9:26am

Meanwhile Arctic ice extent is running at or just above the 2012 level.

Akrasia · 18-07-2017 12:37pm

And Arctic Ice Volume is running well below 2012 levels
6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb09a1ef98970d-800wi

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/06/piomas-june-2017.html

Akrasia · 18-07-2017 12:40pm

And Arctic Ice Volume is running well below 2012 levels and more than 2 standard deviations below the 1979-2016 average
6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb09a1ef98970d-800wi

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/06/piomas-june-2017.html

Gaoth Laidir · 18-07-2017 1:31pm

That's for June, but if you look at the most recent data for July you'll see it's caught up with the other years. Not quite as dramatic picture but still below where we would like it to be.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/07/piomas-july-2017.html#more

Last month we finally received some good news from PIOMAS, and the good news continues this month. With 2017 losing a below average amount of sea ice volume during June (compared to the average of the last 10 years), and a couple of years losing a great deal of volume, such as 2010, 2011 and of course, record smasher 2012, the gap has effectively been closed. At the end of May the difference between 2012 and 2017 was 1481 km3 (a month earlier it was 2412 km3 even), and now it's just 131 km3.

Oneiric 3 · 05-08-2017 9:11pm

Good political commentary here regarding the concept of 'climate change' and how it is being used as means to push forward an 'anti-humanist' ideology.

O'Neil makes the excellent point in that those who are the most vociferous about the dangers of climate change, are usually the very ones who are benefiting the most from the very societies that contribute most to it, hinting at their blatant lack of self-awareness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svbHVk0JdrA

"Anti-capitalism has become not so much radical, but an expression of a privileged narcissism amongst many in the west".

Quite.

Akrasia · 06-08-2017 8:04pm

It's a polemic that makes a lot of generalisations. Anti GMO activists are nothing to do with climate change activists.

Most of the people who argue that we need to tackle climate change are not anti modern technology, in fact, it's the opposite, we are anti 18th century technology. Burning fossil fuels is an obsolete technology, we need to move towards renewable energy, and we will eventually, but the climate crisis means we can't wait until the 'free market' does it on it's own, we need governments to do two things.

1. Stop propping up coal oil and gas industries with huge subsidies and tax breaks that the OECD estimate amount to about $180Bn a year
http://www.oecd.org/environment/support-to-fossil-fuels-remains-high-and-the-time-is-ripe-for-change.htm

2. Start government funded investment programs to fund the rapid transition to clean technology, grants for households to move to renewable energy to power and heat their homes and transport.

3. Regulations that make it prohibitively expensive for polluting industries to operate, and tax breaks for them to find technological solutions that allow them to operate with much lower environmental impact.

Which part of these is 'anti humanist'?

Pa ElGrande · 06-08-2017 11:21pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Most of the people who argue that we need to tackle climate change are not anti modern technology, in fact, it's the opposite, we are anti 18th century technology. Burning fossil fuels is an obsolete technology, we need to move towards renewable energy, and we will eventually, but the climate crisis means we can't wait until the 'free market' does it on it's own, we need governments to do two things.

Technically the 18th century ran from January 1, 1701 to December 31, 1800 there were no hydro, oil, gas, coal or nuclear plants then. Hydro-electric power did not become a reality in Ireland until the 20th century and we use nuclear power via the interconnect with the UK grid and the finished products we consume made by companies that use energy produced by nuclear power. During that time period the primary energy source for people in Ireland and across much of Europe at the time for cooking and heating was wood, not coal. Europe of the 18th century was mostly an agrarian society and most people were only one bad harvest away from starvation, in fact there were several famines and severe weather catastrophes during this time period that killed people en-masse, for reference see the Irish Famine (1740–41). Today burning wood has been classed as renewable energy and the proposed wood burning station in the then Taoiseachs constituency was put into liquidation last year. There is a big question over whether shipping wood pellets from the American continent to Europe is a valid source of green energy.

A free market is just a voluntary exchange of property rights. During the 18th century most of the English crowns subjects in Ireland had extremely limited property rights. In fact the same was true across much of Europe, the combination of bad weather, high taxation and poor economic governance, the role of special interest groups and lack of property rights all contributed to the French revolution. If you are interested in the concept of free markets you my want to read up on Richard Cantillon and read his Essay on the Nature of Trade in General you may also read Edmund Burkes Reflections on the Revolution in France all from the 18th century. Historically those states that have protected and extended their citizens property rights have had the greatest improvement in their standard of living while those who have adopted the socialist model have done much less well. You will not be surprised to learn that environmental degradation was much greater on the other side of the iron curtain.

I have a question, why do you advocate the return to 18th century energy sources that lack the energy density to power the electrical energy future that you presumably see?

Akrasia wrote: »

1. Stop propping up coal oil and gas industries with huge subsidies and tax breaks that the OECD estimate amount to about $180Bn a year
http://www.oecd.org/environment/support-to-fossil-fuels-remains-high-and-the-time-is-ripe-for-change.htm

The number of coal plants that have been built and are being commissioned has increased worldwide, in part due to the the focus on climate change but also the necessity to support a growing population and improve their standard of living, these new high efficiency low emission coal plants are designated as green energy and being funded under the climate change moniker.

Akrasia wrote: »

2. Start government funded investment programs to fund the rapid transition to clean technology, grants for households to move to renewable energy to power and heat their homes and transport.

You will be aware of the debt overhang that the Irish state and many other welfare states across the world currently carry and it is likely that many states will default on their bonds in the next few years. You may also be aware you live in the northern hemisphere and depend on cheap energy to survive cold northern winters and that increasing the price of energy transfers wealth from those who cannot afford the luxury of inefficient renewable energy producing schemes to much wealthier people. Your assumption that you can tap into unlimited resources is incorrect, the bursting of the bond bubble is going to cause chaos and will be the final death knell of climate change as a political tool for a few generations.

Akrasia wrote: »

3. Regulations that make it prohibitively expensive for polluting industries to operate, and tax breaks for them to find technological solutions that allow them to operate with much lower environmental impact.

The specification inflation in Government regulations has contributed in no small part to the increase in building costs of essential shelter and tax breaks have also contributed to increasing margins of the operators benefiting from the subsidy without reducing prices for the end consumer. Maybe the government can raise taxes to fund a technological solution to the problem of incoming tides.

Akrasia wrote: »

Which part of these is 'anti humanist'?

All of them. Note the first line "Humanism is a philosophical and ethical stance that emphasizes the value and agency of human beings, individually and collectively, and generally prefers critical thinking and evidence (rationalism and empiricism) over acceptance of dogma or superstition."

Akrasia · 09-08-2017 4:08pm

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/07/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-a-staggering-5-tn-per-year
5 trillion a year in fossil fuel subsidies a year. That's 6.5% of global productivity

it's madness. If the fossil fuels weren't subsidised so much, modern renewable energy would be much more competitive than it is right now.

Akrasia · 09-08-2017 4:11pm

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

All of them. Note the first line "Humanism is a philosophical and ethical stance that emphasizes the value and agency of human beings, individually and collectively, and generally prefers critical thinking and evidence (rationalism and empiricism) over acceptance of dogma or superstition."

There is nothing dogmatic about climate science. A true rational skeptic would identify it correctly, as the greatest challenge facing our species in recorded history.

It is a force multiplier. It is a huge problem on it's own, but it also makes almost every other pre-existing problem worse.

Oneiric 3 · 09-08-2017 4:14pm

Akrasia wrote: »

It's a polemic that makes a lot of generalisations. Anti GMO activists are nothing to do with climate change activists.

Most of the people who argue that we need to tackle climate change are not anti modern technology, in fact, it's the opposite, we are anti 18th century technology. Burning fossil fuels is an obsolete technology, we need to move towards renewable energy, and we will eventually, but the climate crisis means we can't wait until the 'free market' does it on it's own, we need governments to do two things.

1. Stop propping up coal oil and gas industries with huge subsidies and tax breaks that the OECD estimate amount to about $180Bn a year
http://www.oecd.org/environment/support-to-fossil-fuels-remains-high-and-the-time-is-ripe-for-change.htm

2. Start government funded investment programs to fund the rapid transition to clean technology, grants for households to move to renewable energy to power and heat their homes and transport.

3. Regulations that make it prohibitively expensive for polluting industries to operate, and tax breaks for them to find technological solutions that allow them to operate with much lower environmental impact.

Which part of these is 'anti humanist'?

These 'generalisations' are more than valid though.
Are fossil fuels really as 'obsolete' as you make out? because If so called 'renewable energy' was in anyway effective, it would have taken over from more traditional forms of energy by now.

Oneiric 3 · 09-08-2017 4:46pm

Akrasia wrote: »

It is a force multiplier. It is a huge problem on it's own, but it also makes almost every other pre-existing problem worse.

You'll have to explain this a bit more, because on the face of it, you are suggesting that current world problems are worse than they would because of climate change. This is a very flippant comment. Perhaps you would even go so far as to suggest that if climate change was a big factor back in the mid-1930s, we would have seen an even bigger percentage of the world's population being slaughtered in the years afterwards?

We all know that climate change in itself is a problem that we need to sort out, but to claim that it is the 'biggest threat to our species in recorded history' is as naive as it is untrue, and really just validates the very point that O'Neill was making about climate change being a substitute religion for those who don't hold one.

Akrasia · 09-08-2017 8:21pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

These 'generalisations' are more than valid though.
Are fossil fuels really as 'obsolete' as you make out? because If so called 'renewable energy' was in anyway effective, it would have taken over from more traditional forms of energy by now.

They're obsolete because there is better technology that can do the same thing at a much reduced cost economically, environmentally and medically (pollution from fossil fuels kills millions of people a year)
Look at the tables on this report
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

If the full cost of fossil fuels was actually paid, instead of externalised and subsidised, then we would begun the process of transitioning to renewable energy decades ago.

Solar panel prices have been dropping as more investment has been flowing into the sector which have reduced production costs, improved efficiency and made solar installations much more economically attractive.

Its a similar story with wind power. The cost per KWH has fallen by a factor of 3, from in the last 30 years and installed capacity is growing rapidly. while installation costs have increased as the world commodity prices increased and manufacturing costs increased, the improvements in efficiency per turbine mean that the costs per MWH are continuing to decrease and the IEA estimate that they will continue to fall by up to 40% further by 2030 (although there is a range of confidence so the decreases are likely to be lower than this)(based on their 2012 report) https://www.ieawind.org/index_page_postings/WP2_task26.pdf

Another technology in renewable energy is biomass. Currently this is mostly burning wood or generating ethanol from crops, but these are more and more looking like they're not viable economcally or environmentally.
That said, as a transitional technology, burning wood pellets is better than burning coal if it comes from a sustainable source, but in the medium term, we should be getting the vast majority of our energy from the wind, the sun, and from nuclear power.

In places where solar power is especially abundant, we could create huge solar farms and store the energy as hydrogen or some other medium for export to places where renewable energy is not as abundant

Someone mentioned energy density as a critical factor. This is true, petrol is hugely energy dense, and is our most energy dense fuel (outside of rocketry applications) But the other side of the coin is energy efficiency, and internal combustion engines are less than 22% efficient (the rest of the energy is wasted). For aerospace, energy density really matters because of power to weight ratio and because jet engines are more efficient than internal combustion engines with some achieving maximum efficiency of 46%, but outside of this, most of our fuel needs can be achieved using renewable or carbon neutral technology.

Modern electric engines are 80-90% efficient and are also compatible with other technology like kinetic energy recovery. Burning coal to make electricity is not efficient, but collecting solar power and converting it into hydrogen for use in fuel cells or even transmitting the power directly is still much more efficient than coal gas or oil.
(especially when the costs of extracting the fuel from the ground are included)

The reason renewable energy is lagging behind fossil fuels, imo, is because of inertia. Fossil fuel industries are already established, they already have infrastructure, and there are already politically well connected people who are lobbying to ensure that governments protect their investment. To build a national infrastructure takes a long time and a lot of confidence to take a gamble that the standard you invest in will be the standard that ends up being adopted as well as the most important factor, the full cost of the fossil fuels are not accounted for in the price we pay. The vast majority of the cost of burning fossil fuels are deferred and will be paid by future generations if we don't transition ASAP to renewable and carbon neutral technology

Akrasia · 09-08-2017 8:34pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You'll have to explain this a bit more, because on the face of it, you are suggesting that current world problems are worse than they would because of climate change. This is a very flippant comment. Perhaps you would even go so far as to suggest that if climate change was a big factor back in the mid-1930s, we would have seen an even bigger percentage of the world's population being slaughtered in the years afterwards?

We all know that climate change in itself is a problem that we need to sort out, but to claim that it is the 'biggest threat to our species in recorded history' is as naive as it is untrue, and really just validates the very point that O'Neill was making about climate change being a substitute religion for those who don't hold one.

If we manage to limit global warming to below 1.5 to 2 degrees, then it will seem like hyperbole to suggest that global warming is an existential threat to humanity, but we will only succeed in limiting global warming if we acknowledge that inaction will result in temperature rises in far in excess of that with catastrophic consequences.

It's like telling someone if they don't fix the dodgy wiring in their house, it will burn down, and then someone coming back after fixing the wiring and saying 'you were so alarmist, my house didn't burn down at all. If we take action, it will look like a false alarm, if we don't take action, it will be too late to do anything and we'll be making excuses for why we didn't act sooner.

It's not just me, The UN, The Pentagon and NATO consider Global warming to be the biggest threat multiplier facing the world.

If a region is already facing political instability, the impacts of climate change are adding on additional pressures that can either push a potential crisis over the edge, or make an existing crisis worse.

There are 7 key areas where climate change makes existing problems worse on a geo-political scale

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/climate-change-poses-increasing-risks-to-global-stability/
1. Local resource competition

Competition for access to essential natural resources such as water and arable land, which will be constrained in some regions due to climate change, can lead to instability and even violent conflict. Particularly regions dependent on a narrow resource base, with a history of conflict, or home to marginalized groups are likely to have disruptive competition for resources.

2. Livelihood insecurity and migration

The increased insecurity of people who rely on natural resources for their livelihood is likely to induce climate related migration. Climate change will reduce grazing land, dry up water sources, and threaten jobs connected to climate-sensitive economic sectors, which could also push people to turn to illegal sources of income.

3. Extreme weather events and disasters

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts and storms. Extreme weather events and disasters will exacerbate fragility challenges and can increase people’s vulnerability and grievances, especially in conflict-affected situations.

4. Volatile food prices and provision

The impacts of climate change are expected to decrease yields and disrupt food production in many areas, increasing prices of food and market volatility. As a result, risks of public unrest, democratic breakdown and civil and local conflict will likely be heightened, particularly in poorer regions.

5. Transboundary water management

Competition over water use is likely to increase the pressure on governance structure where the management of water supplies is shared. Several transboundary water basins are located in regions with a history of armed conflict and significant interstate tensions.

6. Sea-level rise and coastal degradation

Rising sea levels are threats to the economic and physical viability of low-lying areas, as land and coastal resources are gradually lost. This can lead to social disruption, displacement and migration, as well as disagreements over maritime boundaries and ocean resources.

7. Unintended effects of climate policies

Unintended consequences from climate adaptation and mitigation policies may occur if they are implemented without enough cross-sectoral coordination or due to the lack of conflict-sensitive implementation. Possible unintended consequences include increased insecurity of land tenure, marginalization of minority groups, increased environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity.

It is widely accepted that the syrian conflict was at the very least exacerbated due to the drought and food shortages that displaced many people brought people onto the streets demanding action.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html

Pa ElGrande · 09-08-2017 10:48pm

Akrasia wrote: »

There is nothing dogmatic about climate science. A true rational skeptic would identify it correctly, as the greatest challenge facing our species in recorded history.

It is a force multiplier. It is a huge problem on it's own, but it also makes almost every other pre-existing problem worse.

Because science. Your use of the term climate science is just an appeal to authority and it is clear from the hyperbole you generated throughout this thread that you lack sufficient grasp of the scientific disciplines or research involved in studying a complex system like climate. Yet that does not stop you preaching absolute certainty where it does not exist.

Oneiric 3 · 09-08-2017 10:54pm

Akrasia wrote: »

It is widely accepted that the syrian conflict was at the very least exacerbated due to the drought and food shortages that displaced many people brought people onto the streets demanding action.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html

And a counter argument to this claim:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12022872/Drought-did-not-cause-the-Syria-terror-crisis.html

Oneiric 3 · 09-08-2017 11:35pm

Anyway, back to the actual Arctic Sea Ice topic, I think no one can deny that it is looking pretty bleak up there at the moment regarding extent. Line represents the daily average extent for the time of year, the white shows just how far the current extent is from that average:

Akrasia · 10-08-2017 10:08am

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Because science. Your use of the term climate science is just an appeal to authority and it is clear from the hyperbole you generated throughout this thread that you lack sufficient grasp of the scientific disciplines or research involved in studying a complex system like climate. Yet that does not stop you preaching absolute certainty where it does not exist.

When does the truth become hyperbole?

If you have lymphatic cancer and your oncologist tells you that it is 95% likely to metastasize if untreated and that the likely symptoms are extreme pain, loss of bodily function and a painful death. Would you consider this hyperbole just because the prognosis is severe? I am not an alarmist. The people who know the most about the science are the ones who are most fearful of the consequences of global warming.

There are lots of climate scientists who think that even the IPCC's predictions of the consequences of global warming are overly optimistic and that dangerous climate change will occur at well below 2 degrees warming, (eg james hansen https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016-discussion.html )
but I am sticking to the findings of the IPCC because I want to use the best available evidence to support my position. Those who disagree with the IPCC and think it'll all be grand are the ones who are being imprudent and anti scientific

Forgive me for sounding as though the science is settled, Science is never absolutely certain, it's about probability and confidence, but the IPCC have put it at 95% confidence that global warming is real and that the causes are carbon emissions. The best science that we have show the different scenarios for our carbon emissions. Business as usual will very likely result in temperature increases in excess of 4 degrees C before 2100. (but even if the 2100 date is too soon, that's a irrelevant if the actual date is 2120 or 2150, the long term effects are basically the same)

You can call me an alarmist or pretend that you're being prudent by not accepting the best available science, but in fact, the prudent thing to do is act in the face of a very likely existential threat.

If I told you that statistically there is a 30% chance that your make and model of car will spontaneously catch fire and explode while you are driving it due to faulty wiring, you could take the risk that it won't happen, but you'd be a fool to not get it fixed.

Akrasia · 10-08-2017 10:13am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

And a counter argument to this claim:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12022872/Drought-did-not-cause-the-Syria-terror-crisis.html

Christopher Booker is a climate change denier (he wrote the book on it in 2009) and a conspiracy theorist and a professional contrarian not unlike Kevin Myers so he's gonna say that anyway, and his whole argument misses the point that the Syrian conflict wasn't caused by climate change, that the drought wasn't really a proper drought.
The Syria uprising happened in 2011, throughout 2010 there are many reports of devastating crop failures and livestock losses due to drought in Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/world/middleeast/14syria.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1330449407-yAiPXrD1kQsKbG2Bb5A61A&pagewanted=1 Booker's claims that things were normal in Syria before the uprising are simply wrong.

There were of course underlying political and economic and social conditions and there is never one single cause for why any political event occors, but climate change made the underlying conditions worse.

There are very few conceivable instances where severe drought, famine and heatwaves can make social, political and economic conditions better.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-08-2017 11:49pm

Jesus wept.

So 2010 was the only time there was a drought in Syria. There must not have been droughts prior to this because this crisis didn't happen before then.

Where's the evidence that the 2010 drought - in an arid area of the world, I might add - was caused by climate change?

dense · 12-08-2017 1:06am

Till someone can explain how CO2, which makes up around just one tenth of one per cent of the earths atmosphere can be affecting anything, I'll call the whole thing a scam.

That's even before we try to drill down to differentiate what miniscule fraction of that 10% of 1% of CO2 is man made and what is from nature, and how one portion is good and the other detrimental.

Dig deep.

This 97% of scientists baloney is as reliable as the 9 out of 10 cats preferring something that smells meatier.

Pa ElGrande · 12-08-2017 9:57pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zk7Xfyv6k4

Judith A. Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for atmospheric research. She is a member of the National Research Council's Climate Research Committee. As of 2017, she has retired from academia.Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002), as well as over 140 scientific papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.

Regarding climate change, she thinks that the IPCC reports typically neglect what she calls the "Uncertainty Monster" in projecting future climate trends, which she calls a "wicked problem." Curry also hosts a popular science blog in which she writes on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw470ury2kw

One incorrect observation by a scientist in 1879, snowballed into 150 years of consensus mass delusion.

and back on topic to the Arctic and the failed predictions to date of scientists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R00G48OAuMM

Gaoth Laidir · 20-08-2017 10:12pm

Latest arctic extent is showing some temporary levelling off of late, now well above the low of 2012. With about 3 weeks of the melt season left, it's unlikely to go below that of 2016 or 2015.

Akrasia · 21-08-2017 11:05am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Jesus wept.

So 2010 was the only time there was a drought in Syria. There must not have been droughts prior to this because this crisis didn't happen before then.

Where's the evidence that the 2010 drought - in an arid area of the world, I might add - was caused by climate change?

I don't appreciate the dismissive 'jesus wept' comment.

The 2007 - 2010 drought was the worst drought on the instrumental record. It was also 2-3 times more likely to have occured due to climate change according this paper
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.abstract

There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.

And my whole point was that these droughts and other extreme weather, which are going to be made worse by global warming, make bad circumstances worse, they are not the sole cause of political uprisings, but mass displacement of people due to drought and heatwaves is only going to further destabilise a region and make civil conflict worse.

Your 'jesus wept' comment made it look like I am being unreasonable. Can you please tell me how droughts and heatwaves made worse or more frequent can have any effect other than to destabilise fragile societies?

Akrasia · 21-08-2017 11:22am

dense wrote: »

Till someone can explain how CO2, which makes up around just one tenth of one per cent of the earths atmosphere can be affecting anything, I'll call the whole thing a scam.

The Ozone layer is an even smaller proportion of the atmosphere, and without it, we would all be getting skin cancer due to UV radiation reaching the surface

CO2 is a gas that is opaque to radiation from the sun, but it reflects infra red radiation
In other words, it allows sunshine to hit the ground, warming the surface. The warm surface emits heat which is basically infra red light. CO2 absorbs the infra red light and scatters it back into the atmosphere.

The fact that it is a small percentage of the atmosphere doesn't mean it has a small effect. Your body has about 3 grams of Hemoglobin in it at any one time. Take away the haemoglobin, or the Iron that it needs, and you'd die instantly.

That's even before we try to drill down to differentiate what miniscule fraction of that 10% of 1% of CO2 is man made and what is from nature, and how one portion is good and the other detrimental.

Dig deep.

This 97% of scientists baloney is as reliable as the 9 out of 10 cats preferring something that smells meatier.

The Pre-industrial atmosphere had about 280 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere. We're now at about 400 parts per million

That's a very significant change in the atmospheric composition. And that ignores the fact that the vast majority of the CO2 we have emitted has gone into the oceans which can store less Co2 the warmer they get, so what we're doing is relying on a carbon sink that is less effective the warmer it gets, and the oceans are getting warmer.

Akrasia · 21-08-2017 11:53am

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zk7Xfyv6k4

and back on topic to the Arctic and the failed predictions to date of scientists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R00G48OAuMM

If you want to gamble with the future of the planet by choosing to believe the people who say Nasa are deliberately faking the data, then fine, that's your choice.

Any climate scientist who claims that the current global warming isn't caused by humans is a contrarian. Judith Curry is infuriating because accepts the science, she accepts everything about it, except how fast the warming might happen. She doesn't dispute the science, she doesn't accept the Data, she thinks there is fraud and political interference in the data by 'alarmists'

In other words, she's a a conspiracy theorist blinded by her own hubris. Her own analysis of the data is different to almost everyone else, so they must all be wrong. She accepts the science, but goes anomaly hunting, trying to find weaknesses in data or models and then overstating their importance and 'asking questions' that everyone is 'afraid to ask'. If Judith Curry respected the scientific process, she would try to convince people using published research, but she is frustrated that her research isn't getting the impact she thinks it deserves, so she has decided to go direct and set up a blog and give interviews accusing her fellow scientists of corruption and bias.

There are always going to be individual contrarians in any field. And the 'sceptics' love to give them a platform while dismissing the vast majority of evidence and considered expert opinion that contradicts whatever they want to be true.

Some people think that every opinion is valid. But in Science, you are compelled to follow the data. Diverse perspectives need to be backed up by data. otherwise we end up putting flat earthers on the same platform as astro physicists.

Judith Curry resigned from her universty role because she didn't like being challenged by her peers. She is much more comfortable in the 'private sector' where she can say whatever she wants without having to worry about convincing the experts in her field.

Tae laidir · 21-08-2017 3:15pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest arctic extent is showing some temporary levelling off of late, now well above the low of 2012. With about 3 weeks of the melt season left, it's unlikely to go below that of 2016 or 2015.

Yes, Arctic Temperatures have remained consistently at average or a little below over the summer period.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The Arctic Oscillation has also remained largely neutral.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
Generally another remarkable year in respect to the 1981-2010 median, but unremarkable in respect of a 2007-2016 median.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-08-2017 8:30pm

Akrasia wrote: »

I don't appreciate the dismissive 'jesus wept' comment.

It was in relation to this (underlined bits)

Originally Posted by Akrasia
It is widely accepted that the syrian conflict was at the very least exacerbated due to the drought and food shortages that displaced many people brought people onto the streets demanding action.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/s...te-change.html

The 2007 - 2010 drought was the worst drought on the instrumental record. It was also 2-3 times more likely to have occured due to climate change according this paper
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.abstract

And my whole point was that these droughts and other extreme weather, which are going to be made worse by global warming, make bad circumstances worse, they are not the sole cause of political uprisings, but mass displacement of people due to drought and heatwaves is only going to further destabilise a region and make civil conflict worse.

Your 'jesus wept' comment made it look like I am being unreasonable. Can you please tell me how droughts and heatwaves made worse or more frequent can have any effect other than to destabilise fragile societies?

I asked where is the proof that this drought was definitely caused by agw. That paper does not address this question, it speaks of increased probability. You speak of it being "at the very least exacerbating" the conflict. So what's your "very most" scenario?

The image below shows this drought viewed in parallel with a fivefold increase in population. Add to that an irrigation system that has for a long time been profoundly unfit for purpose to meet that increased demand, and that in itself is a serious situation. In other words, had this drought occured a few decades ago, or with a proper irrigation system, then the effects would have been greatly reduced. A crisis was waiting to happen sooner or later with that increase in population fully depending on that system, even with no reduction in rainfall.

Note also the lack of any trend during the early-century warming of the 1900s, which, according to you, was also significantly enhanced by anthro ghgs. Where's the signal there? No trend from 1900 right up to 20 years ago.

F1.large.jpg

Akrasia · 21-08-2017 9:05pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was in relation to this (underlined bits)

I asked where is the proof that this drought was definitely caused by agw. That paper does not address this question, it speaks of increased probability. You speak of it being "at the very least exacerbating" the conflict. So what's your "very most" scenario?

I'm beginning to wonder if you know what these words mean.

Exacerbated means to make an existing problem worse. If Syria had a simmering political unrest, adding the worst drought since instrumentation began is bound to exacerbate the problem.
I said 'at the very least' because I fail to see how anyone could deny this.

Also, weather and climate models are inherently probabilistic. If your standard of evidence is 'individual weather event definitely caused by global warming' then you are setting the standards of evidence beyond what any reasonable person would accept.

It's the same standard that the smoking causes lung cancer deniers used when they said 'nobody can say for certain that this specific case of lung cancer was caused by smoking' while ignoring the scientific position that smoking makes lung cancer much more likely compared to non smokers.

The research on global warming says that extreme weather will be more likely. And we are already seeing a large increase in the number and scale of extreme weather events. But no scientist is going to publish a paper saying x drought definitely wouldn't have happened without global warming.

The image below shows this drought viewed in parallel with a fivefold increase in population. Add to that an irrigation system that has for a long time been profoundly unfit for purpose to meet that increased demand, and that in itself is a serious situation. In other words, had this drought occured a few decades ago, or with a proper irrigation system, then the effects would have been greatly reduced. A crisis was waiting to happen sooner or later with that increase in population fully depending on that system, even with no reduction in rainfall.

Note also the lack of any trend during the early-century warming of the 1900s, which, according to you, was also significantly enhanced by anthro ghgs. Where's the signal there? No trend from 1900 right up to 20 years ago.

You've just shown me 3 graphs that show global warming is affecting rainfall and temperatures in the fertile cresent coupled with a load of whataboutery regarding their irrigation system. The fact is, it was the worst drought in decades and their crops failed.

Would there still have been a civil war if the drought wasn't so bad? Maybe. Probably?, nobody knows, Crop failures are definitely one of the reasons people took to the streets, but other factors also pushed people towards rebellion, but given that the drought was so bad, was the civil war exacerbated by all the displaced and starving people. OF course it was.

Oneiric 3 · 21-08-2017 10:39pm

Current sea ice extent Vs average over the last 7 days:

Coming close to the minimum extent now, which I think occurs in early Sept on average if I am not mistaken? However, it remains to be seen how this much ice extent will increase this year as the waters around the Arctic region are extremely warm at the moment, and are likely to remain so during the coming Autumn season.

Edit: Latest SST anomalies from DMI:

satanom.arc.d-01.png

Depressing.

Arctic Sea Ice Watch

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