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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Not quite.
Ophelia's central pressure at the time of the last NHC advisory near Ireland was 969mb
Forecast for Helene in a similar position closer to ~ 987mb
Nowhere near as intense, although Florence has been reminding us in the last few hours that intensity is not always completely aligned with windspeed.
Nope, ECM is showing a very similar situation to Ophelia:
Only difference is Ophelia was a pretty dry storm, Helene is going to have a fair bit of rain along with the strongest winds.
Still aways off though - the ECM track this morning had this grazing the west coast, now it's passing up the Irish sea, so it could completely disappear from our forecast even.
When you watch its progress, a large part of the track seems to be dictated by interaction with a large blob of high pressure on Sunday evening - that blob looks like it forces the track towards Ireland. So that's a wee bit more complex to model than a simple isolated storm track.0 -
Nope, ECM is showing a very similar situation to Ophelia:
Only difference is Ophelia was a pretty dry storm, Helene is going to have a fair bit of rain along with the strongest winds.
Still aways off though - the ECM track this morning had this grazing the west coast, now it's passing up the Irish sea, so it could completely disappear from our forecast even.
When you watch its progress, a large part of the track seems to be dictated by interaction with a large blob of high pressure on Sunday evening - that blob looks like it forces the track towards Ireland. So that's a wee bit more complex to model than a simple isolated storm track.
Wow, right you are too. Big change on the 12Z in terms of min pressure
That rivals Ophelia if it came off for sure.0 -
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This run seeing the SE and E getting the biggest winds from ex Helene around Tues next . Long way to go. ECM doing very well lately, outclassed the GFS with Florence. A windy day following on Weds but the ECM keeping the storm well off the coast atm.
Helene currently a Cat 1 Hurricane
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The GFS is showing some wintry showers for the north of Scotland (probably high ground though) next Sunday with -6c uppers getting there, which I guess is pretty impressive for September. In Ireland, we are also affected by N'ly/NW'ly with temperatures in the low teens, -2c uppers in the north. Can we not get this in November instead? :rolleyes:
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This GFS 12z is something else.... for Sunday 23rd September.
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ICON, ECM, ARPEGE and GFS all showing at least orange warning level winds for Wednesday across the west, and perhaps more of the country. ECM and ICON showing up to 160km/h for western coastal counties easily warranting the maximum warning for exposed coasts at least.
Many models are thereafter picking up on another wind event on Thursday night with strong gusts just about anywhere.
And then there's Sunday. ECM having none of it, GFS calling for hurricane-force winds just offshore.
Interesting few days ahead whatever the outcomes!
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very steep thermal gradient, the 0 degree 850 isotherm side by side with the +15 850 isotherm,can only spell trouble.
8 degrees in Donegal and 18 degrees in Cork at 9pm,incredible contrast.
Intense jet racing across ireland
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SleetAndSnow wrote: »ECM starting to show some strong winds across the country now. Think it shows parts of the south/midlands getting 130km + gusts (scales hard to read lol)? will leave the actual reading to the people who understand these more
Your second chart is winds @ 850hpa (about 1500m / 5,000ft) not surface.
The ECM is picking up on it but not deepening it near as much as GFS did yesterday. Not stopping nearly 12m waves though.
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Artane2002 wrote: »It looks more like 120km/h+ gusts at 1500m asl (so somewhere between 120kph and 130kph is how I like to read it, I don't know if it's the correct way of doing so.)
"Vents" is actually continuous winds, not gusts, but yeah, it's at altitude so not representative of ground level winds necessarily. ECM is getting in on the fun though, some really strong gusts here, including 160km/h+ on Dingle peninsula (mountaintop winds before Gaoth points it out):
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Just for a good laugh. Pub run last night was showing the Atlantic blocked for early October with a potent northerly shot (for early October anyway) and bringing snow to the UK.
Saying that as just for fun, there has been some trend from each of the models for the end of the month into early October to be quite a bit cooler than average.
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Exceptional levels of high pressure (near record breaking almost for September - 2018 does not stop does it?) still ahead on the outlook from Monday onwards with a very dominant anticyclone being the influence for the UK and Ireland for the end of September. Much higher pressure compared to what we had during the Summer. Signs of retrogression in early October though....
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ECM 00Z holding on to HP right out to +240 hrs, the potential Subtropical or Tropical Cyclone which the NHC says has a 60% chance of formation within 48hrs W of the Azores seems to become more or less stationary on the lastest run, being blocked by areas of HP in the N Atlantic. Will see how this develops and will it remain so.
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ECM showing some cold weather at times as we move into Oct. At the end of the run showing strong winds in off the Atlantic with frontal activity and what is Leslie going to do after it's walkabout, will it enter the strong Jet at the end of the run bringing it close to these shores ?
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Well the charts continue to show Leslie to just meander around the mid Atlantic up to +240 hrs at least.
After a few relatively mild days mid week ( more so S and E ) the ECM has been consistent in showing some very cool weather over the weekend. Could be windy along E and SE coasts Sat. Sun /Mon alternating mild and cold air mass with a breezy wet frontal passage and cooler again Tue /Weds according to the ECM in what looks like a brisk W'ly airflow, showers ( possibly windy/ wet along Atlantic coasts ).
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Our spell of benign weather looks to be coming to an end as signs of unsettled weather showing up on the charts as we move into next week with the Atlantic becoming more mobile, wet and windy weather with a particularly Deep Depression showing up off the W coast around Weds / Thurs ( early days though will have to see will it show up over the next few runs. ). Strong Jet . Mix of mild and cool air but not looking as cool as earlier charts.
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The ECM 12Z has that storm closer to Ireland on this run and showing some very strong winds. Looks abnormally deep atm ? Will see if it it maintains a similar proximity to Ireland and as vigorous as it has been showing now for two days. On tonight's run another depression can be seen forming on the heels of the weds storm .
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