FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

daphne

I see MT Cranium says that we are going to get some proper rainfall 27th July-1/2nd Aug... are the runs now converging on that?

daphne

And... Boom?

Villain

daphne wrote: »

I see MT Cranium says that we are going to get some proper rainfall 27th July-1/2nd Aug... are the runs now converging on that?

Well they have shown that around day 10 of the charts several times but it hasn't materialized.

His forecast of 50mm from those dates is very interesting and will give a lot of farmers some great hope!

Not sure I would be brave enough to forecast it mind

pauldry

There is a 50/50 chance of heavy rain at end of month

However the other 50 percent is for a renewed heatwave so I give up at this stage

Model consensus from run to run is non existent presently.

However the Atlantic is still quite inactive so nothing severe will happen rainwise till this changes.

I do think a period of very heavy rain will have to come in August.

Sometime

daphne

That met eireann sequence seems to show the Atlantic high receding west / south west away from us.

sryanbruen

To prove how the GFS (other models too) hasn't got a clue, here's all its runs since 0z on Tuesday (up to 06z today) for 14:00 on Thursday 26th July.

Jpmarn

sryanbruen wrote: »

To prove how the GFS (other models too) hasn't got a clue, here's all its runs since 0z on Tuesday (up to 06z today) for 14:00 on Thursday 26th July.

Throughout my life if we are having a wet summer and models are showing an anticyclone over Ireland in 7 to 10 days after a run it seldom materialise to be true. I think the opposite is happening this summer. A low pressure system is either downgraded or replaced with high pressure as Sryan demonstrated in a few posts above.

pauldry

Yes Ive been keeping an eye on forecast for Sunday all week.

The temperatures started
21 to 27c mondays met forecast
22c to 26c tuesdays met forecast
22c to high twenties wed morning forecast
22c to 25c thurs morning forecast
19c to 24c this evening on news

Its usually the average of all

Id say it will be 21c in Sligo Sunday

Wouldnt it be funny if it was 21c to 27c like the original prediction. Could be.

Even if it rains every day now 2018 is set in stone as one of the great Summers. e.g remember the fantastic weather we had in 2018 from May to July will be the refrain here for many years Id say though I forgot about July 2013 until this year and I checked old photos on phone and yes it was hot in Sligo

sdanseo

12Z ECM shows much of the same as what we have for the next 10 days, mildly warmer Sunday and Monday then back as we were.

Then the following weekend the Atlantic very much wins. Very little precip up to 25th and then pow, we get 30mm.

As Sryan said though - FI is not much past 3/4 days. This is 9/10, so large tub of salt.

Calibos

Hope the 50% chance of renewed heatwave comes to pass for the weekend of the 28/29th or at the very least the rain is delayed till Sunday Night.

Bray Airshow on that weekend.

sryanbruen

Since you brought up the ECM, well here's every ECM run for the same time period (26th July) since Monday. It has been far more consistent than the above GFS runs but still not "brilliantly" consistent to really grow confidence. Notice on the ECM charts though the lack of northern blocking.

The teleconnections support more of the same of this Summer but.... there are some spanners in the works like potential tropical developments, Pacific trade wind bursts etc.

Meteorite58

Well the ECM has certainly made rain a stronger possibility the second half of next week with the merging of two areas of LP deepening off the coast and this set up would probably send in a few rain belts and showers to follow. Tight isobars also so potentially windy on these charts for now anyway. The synoptic chart posted by sdanseo showing the jet very active also. Wil be interesting to see if it keeps up this trend.

Showing HP building over Ireland on the end of the run.

The GFS not showing anything like the temperatures that was showing yesterday for the UK for the 28th, from the high 30's to the mid 20's today.

Meteorite58

The ECM 12Z showing the Jet getting quite active over Ireland next week. Will be watching to see if this continues and could it help to deepen does areas of LP at the end of the week , producing higher winds / more rain. At the end of the run it moves more North letting HP build again over Ireland. All FI of course

SleetAndSnow

Have we ever seen the models so topsy turvy? Every single run is different. Even during the snow they weren't this different every day, bar one or two days,

pauldry

I think theyr topsy turvy coz a change is coming and they dont believe it.

Theres been rain in Sligo on all days this week bar one.

Jetstream is back home

Normal Summer service has resumed.

Still at least went on holidays in dry spell.

Meteorite58

I think the models are starting to come in line more and more with potential for substantial spells of rain from weds to Fri , perhaps with ridging over Ireland from around Fri with pressure building along with some rise in temperatures but atm not looking overly warm. Both main models showing that this may last until around Monday / Tuesday with signs that the Atlantic will push through again.

Villain

ECMWF has mived the trough slightly further west which could see most of the decent rain confined to western areas though.

UKMO brings it closer though so still a lot that will change.

The ECMWF Clusters showed a bring spread behind +240 and I wouldn’t like to try call that.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z shows the Wednesday rain band quite weak in nature, even for the west of the country. It seems we're about firming up on the details that Ireland will have a fairly warm but damp affair for the end of July with temperatures in the high teens most of the time out west and low 20s to the east. Rain not looking heavy at all generally so not really a lot going on for Ireland if this is right. Still no signs of northern blocking so not much of a cool down either but the heat will be far more focused on southeastern England this time around compared to May and much of June when it was the north and west of the UK along with Ireland that had the heat.

Meteorite58

I'm thinking the ECM is getting fairly consistent now based over the last 4 runs with a share of rain from Weds through Fri ( timing of course not pinned down ). Just inside FI range sees decent accumulated precipitation for 24 hrs, a bit off I know but it is holding this pattern now for a number of runs. The rainfall although not very heavy looks prolonged so the amounts may add up over the couple of days.

Meteorite58

Ridging on the latest ECM runs not as strong letting LP fronts brush up against the country around Sunday next. Will see if this develops into a new consistent trend.

Donegal Storm

An almost autumnal look to the charts this week with the jet stream right over us and lows being whipped up in the Atlantic. Our wet windy south westerlies back home after disappearing for the best part of 5 months

sryanbruen

GFS 06z does it again. :pac:

JCX BXC

Yup, as I begin to lose hope the 06Z GFS throws up this short oven blast!





Look at those temperatures over Paris!

Thewife

I’m due to go to Paris that weekend , how likely is that those temperatures will come to fruition ? I’d acrually die in that heat LOL 🀣🀣

JCX BXC wrote: »

Yup, as I begin to lose hope the 06Z GFS throws up this short oven blast!





Look at those temperatures over Paris!

JCX BXC

It's 10 days out and quite an outlier so I'd say quite unlikely. However something in the 30's is likely.

Slashermcguirk

In Paris, temperatures in the 30s would not be unusual at all. I spent a few summers there and it gets very hot, you also don't get much relief on the hotter days as you are a long way from any coast line. I have to travel to London a decent amount and while it tends to be warmer than Dublin, Paris is a whole other level. The difference between Ireland / UK and then Continental Europe is so big.
That being said temps in Ireland this summer have been ideal. I would take mid to high 20s every time over temps in the 30s.

Sammy2012

Any idea what the weather will be like next Tuesday the 31st? Due to get the ferry to Wales and hoping it won't be too rough.

sryanbruen

UKMO 12z has a changeable weekend for Ireland, cooler Saturday but temperatures already rising again for Sunday as the low pressure starts travelling northwards instead of eastwards. Think the Azores High and Scandi High are trying to link with one another. Looks kind of a knife edge though as there's another drop of 850hPa temperatures in the middle of the North Atlantic that would likely be involved with another low which would push towards us if we could go on a bit further with the model.

sryanbruen

In contrast to the 06z, the GFS 12z shows no plume for the UK and the heat is far more sensible. High pressure starts building over Ireland too. Next runs are likely to change again knowing the inconsistency of every run of the GFS recently.

Periscal

We had lovely summer so far,can't complain ,but unfortunately there are ominous signs of emerging Euro High-killer of our recent summers,so unless if you live in SE corner of UK I wouldn't get your hopes high for the foreseeable outlook,perhaps the odd chance East coast might have a few days rest from Atlantic lows,but watch that low south of Iceland not moving for weeks now as it hits the blocking high, thanks god this came now not in May