Prolonged cold spell possible as senior organization call the spell..

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2005 11:51pm

Well tonight has not killed the cold spell at all

I'll rephrase whats ahead of us, it isnt a "severe"
cold spell as the "cold" isnt going to be that severe.
But the cold will be prolonged and should start
as early as next Friday in the form of a Northerly

The end is not even in the range of models with
winds veering Easterly by 264hrs as deep LP's
swing in gale force Easterlys

billy the squid · 30-01-2005 5:33am

have you seen this

30-01-2005 10:35am

Yes Billy, its a rogue model run probably aka or better described as an FI (fantasy island) model by weather model watchers.

If it came to pass there wouldnt be any hats left in the country , they'd all be eaten.

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 11:23am

Rogue

no it actually was an average run :eek: :eek: :eek:

Screw the no ramping rules..

Start panick Buying

Just LOOK at the ensembles purely exceptional

The mean stays below -5c 850hpa temps for 9 days
http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Now guys with good agreement we really are gonna have a good few weeks
over here

And if Boards breaks down again :eek: :mad:

30-01-2005 2:29pm

heh!

Anyway both the beeb and Met Éireanns TV forecasts for the week have just been shown.
Both have indicated a northerly for next w/end with snow showers but interestingly Met Éireann have a low pressure zipping down the North Sea.
Its kinda guesswork rather than certain at this far out from that event but that would sort of fall into line with a North Easterly or Easterly forming after that.

Thats where the interesting possibilities occur as the northerly will have laid the groundwork(ie it will have cooled us down considerably) for an Easterly(if it happened-as it could very well be a southerly ie bye bye snow) and increase the likelyhood of snow.

Over to you now weathercheck...

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 3:20pm

Well absolutely stunning runs all round

One point that may be a worry is the lak of a
real cold pool out east.. We are
going to have a Northerly towards th weekend
and then an Easterly is 80% likely but i all hinges
around where the Easterly originates from..
Current showng is we will have a Northerly which will
swing to an Easterly and bring very cold northerly
or northeasterly weather from Feb 4th - 7th but
then the consenus is to bring in milder air in association
with an LP on around the 8th, this could be a very iffy
snow event but if i came of you'd have lots of snow..Then
from the 8th its pretty much ground down that colder
northeasterly winds will move in and the real freeze begins.

Thats the current outlook with the latest OBS

A prolonged cold spell with plenty of chances for
snow for around 10 days but at the moment not
an intense freeze

Still, it do me

30-01-2005 4:21pm

To be frank, you would want a time machine to be able to call accurately whats going to happen.
The south East of England is very near the continent so it gets air from there direct in an easterly without a chance for it to warm up.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/i_fr_st.gif

Have a look at the above map.
If our easterly is actually an east wind circulating around a low and it derives its feed from Northern France then its no good up here with us tbh unless that part cools down considerably.
Dinard for instance and the channel coast of france are as warm if not warmer than us at the moment.
If the air is sourced further east then is will be tempered by the time it gets here especially if its crossing Brittany and its going to have to cross a warm Irish sea too, if it is south East then its got an even bigger sea path and further chances to warm up.

A whole lot of ifs and buts about this situation...

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 4:58pm

Ye Earthman lots of ifs and buts.
Although the ground works have been
laid for a very exciting 2-3 weeks of weather
watching and a severe cold spell is really a high possibility

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 7:05pm

Good agreement now that were heading into a 8 day cold spell.
Spring is suspended and winter is just beginning

This is real now, this is the real thing

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Crack open the champagne if you want

Were heading into a cold spell that should match
those of the 80's

Bring it on

Scubadevils · 30-01-2005 7:56pm

I cant believe snow is on the way as I am going away - I had better not miss the best of it! This is the second time. last bit of snow the week before last and I was away for that too :mad: I'm sure it will be snowing in Birminham too but its not the same as seeing it at home. I want to be stuck in the house, cant go to work and have to battle my way to the shops in blizzard conditions. Oh yeah, and the power gone

Well I just hope it arrives with all its might next Saturday and then flights are cancelled on Sunday

Danno · 30-01-2005 9:07pm

What is important here is where the low pressure will be in situ. Anyone with any details?

Matty H · 30-01-2005 10:58pm

For me the encouragement is in the agreement in the model outputs. Even the MetO output this evening raises pressure over Greenland which would strengthen our block and the worries of it being a two day toppler that we are so used to now would be eleviated by this pressure rise. Tons of warm air being pumped up the western flank will only aid strenghtening.

The ensembles are equally favourable and this is where to look for the overall trend. It's ok to watch each individual output but the ensembles tell the true story and the agreement is there almost completely to a cold spell of some sort late this coming week.

What sort of cold spell? Time will tell although i'm not convinced we will see a proper easterly from this. A northerly yes and one that sticks around for more than 24 hours or so and with embedded troughs and the possibilty of polar lows anywhere could catch snowfall in this unstable airstream.

It's still all up in the air an the FI outputs are very messy, but it's all to play for at the moment. Hopefully that will still be the case by midweek

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 11:15pm

Fair Post Matty

The charts are very very encouraging if they are the same by
Tuesday morning then we can go into full ramp

And me and Matty H can Ramp together :eek:

Nice to see ye Matty and Welcome aboard

30-01-2005 11:25pm

Welcome Matty H to boards.ie

Good post.We would need some sort of Easterly to bring a significant snowfall to Eastern Ireland.
A northerly just doesn't deliver the goods here( it sends them into Wales unless by some fluke a shallow depression runs down the Irish sea hugging the East coast-EG: the one in a northerly that brought the massive Oct 2003 24 hours of thunderstorms to Dublin) this afair hasn't happened in winter in my lifetime.
It has done the biz many times in North Leinster,Ulster and North Connaught though.

By the way I heard Jean Byrne of M.E on the 9 forecast on RTÉ admit they werent certain about the length of the cold spell she said they would update on it later in the week but at least they are talking about it.

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 11:26pm

Real cold here by 114hrs and this chart by 132hrs
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

Things beginning to get put together now

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 11:28pm

Snow showers hugging the east coast
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1384.gif
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1382.gif

ninebeanrows · 30-01-2005 11:39pm

Tisnt a bad run this

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

Matty H · 30-01-2005 11:42pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Tisnt a bad run this
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

Nowhere near so good in FI though. Canadian low having a bad effect on our Atlantic block and sending it back south allowing the Atlantic to influence a little more.

Still, we are talking about a scenario that will change many times yet

30-01-2005 11:50pm

For those that don't know here FI means Fantasy island ie model runs done for time periods way ahead of what you could realistically expect to be reliable...( I think

)
Invariably these have predicted snow of "day after tomorrow-the film" proportions only to be over rided by more realistic runs nearer to the timeframe with invariably milder projections...

Matty H · 31-01-2005 12:02am

Earthman wrote:

For those that don't know here FI means Fantasy island ie model runs done for time periods way ahead of what you could realistically expect to be reliable...( I think )
Invariably these have predicted snow of "day after tomorrow-the film" proportions only to be over rided by more realistic runs nearer to the timeframe with invariably milder projections...

Indeed and charts that are barely worth mentioning for specifics at all. People say watch the trend at that range but i'm not convinced they even set a particularly reliable trend most of the time as the trend at that range often changes with the specifics.

18z is good tonight again. As good as you could hope for anyway, but that low out of Canada will bother me if it continues to show prominence on later runs this week

31-01-2005 12:06am

Matty H wrote:

but that low out of Canada will bother me if it continues to show prominence on later runs this week

Would that have the ability if it strenghtened and headed East to turn our high into a toppler as you mentioned above ie send the high into the continent and bye bye longer cold spell as a result?

Matty H · 31-01-2005 12:11am

Earthman wrote:

Would that have the ability if it strenghtened and headed East to turn our high into a toppler as you mentioned above ie send the high into the continent and bye bye longer cold spell as a result?

I'm not knowledgeable to give that a reliable answer, but my guess would be it would flatten our High out, effectively breaking the link to the north. This would assumedly allow the low to cross us at a later date. There are of course many other things such as the strength of the Siberian high ect that would influence how this Low may affect the coming cold spell.

At that range though I would say concentrate on Friday first and the potential start of it all and worry about how it may or may not break down once we are hopefully under way.

There will be many ups and downs before Friday and the ensembles will tell the full story up to then rather than concentrating on the specifics of one individual model output

31-01-2005 12:29am

Agreed

on that note I toddles off to bed-should be a very interesting forthnight, at first in discussing what may pan out and then in experiencing it

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2005 2:21pm

On Lunch but Saturday's shaping up to be an interesting
day with widespread snow, more later

31-01-2005 4:33pm

Weathercheck wrote:

On Lunch but Saturday's shaping up to be an interesting
day with widespread snow, more later

perhaps... but you are forgetting to use the word probably or maybe or possible there- please use them when there is anything but certainty.
I dont want you getting peoples hopes up unnecessarilly.

Like a few posts backs, though you were joking , you said there would be food shortages....
Now I dont want people thinking that theres going to be a foot of snow in Dublin on Saturday-because there wont be!

I see the Beeb aka UKMO have changed their mind on calling a prolonged cold spell
The general agreement now is for 4 or 5 days with a northerly.
Anything more than that is pure speculation.

A northerly is not much use for snow in Dublin as experience has shown.

But this would be more encouraging with a kink in the gradient showing a slight north easterly in the flow.

But temps of plus three or four would confine snow to just the highest ground.

All of that stuff though that far out needs cup fulls of salt taken with it though.

6 days away though and thats very very uncertain.

Mothman · 31-01-2005 5:17pm

Earthman wrote:

perhaps... but you are forgetting to use the word probably or maybe or possible there- please use them when there is anything but certainty.
I dont want you getting peoples hopes up unnecessarilly.

Like a few posts backs, though you were joking , you said there would be food shortages....
Now I dont want people thinking that theres going to be a foot of snow in Dublin on Saturday-because there wont be!

I see the Beeb aka UKMO have changed their mind on calling a prolonged cold spell
The general agreement now is for 4 or 5 days with a northerly.
Anything more than that is pure speculation.

A northerly is not much use for snow in Dublin as experience has shown.

But this would be more encouraging with a kink in the gradient showing a slight north easterly in the flow.

But temps of plus three or four would confine snow to just the highest ground.

All of that stuff though that far out needs cup fulls of salt taken with it though.

6 days away though and thats very very uncertain.

Those anti-ramping pills are working.......

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2005 5:21pm

Not true Earthman the ground temperature
is profoundly useless in these situations

With 850hpa temps touching -10c and 500hpa Dam at
around 518dam snow is almost certain from any precip,
ground temperatures may max out at 4c but will drop
sharply in any precipitation

A Saturday - Tuesday Cold Spell is in the bag *i think*
A Saturday to Friday Cold Spell is still very much possible

With a tinge to the east in the winds towards next Monday
we shouldnt worry about precip as of yet but Saturday has
a nice feature moving through with the possibility of
a period of prolonged and heavy snow

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2005 5:26pm

mmmmmmmmm tasty http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

Blizzards in the East and North

31-01-2005 5:51pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Not true Earthman the ground temperature
is profoundly useless in these situations
With 850hpa temps touching -10c and 500hpa Dam at
around 518dam snow is almost certain from any precip,

[Injection of reality-only a little bit needed mind...]

I think you are being optimistic there weathercheck.
Those conditions might guarantee snow to higher ground but not to lower levels unless the precipitation was very heavy and a bullseye hit.
Plus you must factor in as I keep repeating that

And anyway, those are models guessing on whats going to happen in 5 or 6 days time...
That is past a reliable forecast timeframe.
I'd like to see models ran 3 or 4 days prior to an event, and then I'd be ramping-otherwise you will just disappoint yourself.

mmmmmmmmm tasty http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
Blizzards in the East and North

Again you are looking at models a week out.
They could change several times between this and then as they are only guesses based on several variables.

What I'm basically saying is, there are too many variables to guarantee what weathercheck is saying would happen but its got a higher than usual likelyhood.
Just dont get the hopes up and then if it doesnt come to pass, you wont be disappointed.
[/ end of injection]

Thanks Mothman and matty H for the anti ramping pills-they dont last long though

I actually do think its going to snow this w/end-I dont hold faith in model projections more than 4 days ahead though when so many things are going on.
It *could* snow a lot and then again it could completely miss us. If I was to give blind faith to models up to a week and more ahead I'd be ramping but experience tells me not to do that and wait untill 4 or 5 days at most prior.

( fcuk-its going to snow and snow a lot ...probably

)

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2005 7:11pm

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

I'll leave you to break the news Earthman, im taking a break
from the models too darn stressful! :eek:

Prolonged cold spell possible as senior organization call the spell..

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