Turkish forces have started bombing and attacking Kurdish people in Syria

So is this one of those invidious situations where people either have to go along with the flow of yet another massacre overseas, or maybe slightly rethink the cliff notes vision of US foreign policy as simply being an un-nuanced bane wherever it touches.

Still I don't want to make people think I'm just here to take a cheap shot at anti-US sentiment, I don't think it has escaped anyone's notice that this moving is a stunningly selective interpretation of this apparently in vogue 'neo-isolationism' which has become popular in the US, as a means of reducing US commitments overseas. I mean could he not have started with Saudi Arabia? Was that really utterly unthinkable? That maybe the purported leaders of the free world could cut the cord with perhaps the most notoriously regressive regime in the world?

Perhaps there's simply a grim calculus of politics behind this all but it really just looks like a knee-jerk move made with no consideration of the future implications.

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Looking at public snapchats from Akcakale, Turkey. There are plenty of tanks and soldiers heading to Syria.

Feel so sorry for the Kurds. If you look at public snapchats from Aleppo, there are businesses open and kids being kids again. That wouldn’t be the case if the Kurdish fighters hadn’t been involved.

I feel very helpless knowing how wrong this is. I hope people think twice about booking their cheap Turkish holiday as it’s funding all this.

Public Snapchats are one of the most fun ways to get a visual feeling of what's happening on the ground. Remember Croatia getting to the football final last summer the place lost the plot. Was hilarious to watch.

Trump has stated he has one of three options to the situation "Send in thousands of troops and win Militarily, hit Turkey very hard Financially and with Sanctions, or mediate a deal between Turkey and the Kurds!"

So, am I correct in the assumption that the majority here, who constantly complain of US military intervention into the region are in favor of more US military intervention?

crashadder wrote: »

Woow. Even the Kurds would laugh at that. PKK have been killing innocent people in Turkey since 1980's. YPG = PKK. There are 20m Kurds in Turkey. This isnt against Kurds . It is against PKK. This is like describing the fight against IRA as fight against the "Irish". I hate Erdogan myself and i certainly hate violence but i grew up with terror fear. Turkey has the right to defend their borders just like US did when they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11 to wipe terrorism.
P.S My English could have been better if PKK hadnt burned my English teacher alive. (being serious). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Market_massacre
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/13-shoppers-die-in-istanbul-arson-attack-1080615.html

The US had the right to defend their borders after 9/11 against Iraq? Who had nothing to do with it.

While still supporting Saudi Arabia who are the most culpable country for that attack.

its exactly what toddlers do, they can't process their rage and attack nearest easiest target

crashadder wrote: »

Woow. Even the Kurds would laugh at that. PKK have been killing innocent people in Turkey since 1980's. YPG = PKK. There are 20m Kurds in Turkey. This isnt against Kurds . It is against PKK. This is like describing the fight against IRA as fight against the "Irish". I hate Erdogan myself and i certainly hate violence but i grew up with terror fear. Turkey has the right to defend their borders just like US did when they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11 to wipe terrorism.
P.S My English could have been better if PKK hadnt burned my English teacher alive. (being serious). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Market_massacre
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/13-shoppers-die-in-istanbul-arson-attack-1080615.html

Ye wha?

Turkey has a lot of military power but I think they will struggle in northern Syria against hardened defensive positions and guerilla warfare.

joseywhales wrote: »

Turkey has a lot of military power but I think they will struggle in northern Syria against hardened defensive positions and guerilla warfare.

Nah, unfortunately I don't think the Kurds stand much of a chance.

Most of their towns are right on the border. One foot into Syria and you're already in those towns.

The lands south of the border are predominantly flat and open, and Turkey has got a very substantial airforce. The Kurds have no air power. The Kurds put up an amazing fight against ISIS, but this is a much more uneven struggle.

The Euphrates is a great obstacle, but it runs north-south, not east-west as would be required for it to be useful in this circumstance.

The front is also spectacularly wide (about 200 km). For comparison sake the entire border of Germany and Poland is about 300 km.

To make matters even worse, Assad has declared that the Kurds' preference for Washinton over Aleppo means that he won't help them out. In fact, as the Kurds have quite a lot of oil in eastern Syria, Assad is likely to try grab a lot of Kurdish territory in that region. This is a significant difference to a year ago when Assad's solders helped defend Manbij from Turkish incursion.

The only other players in the region are Russia and Iran, but as the Kurds allied themselves with America instead of either of these nations, trying to woo their affection at this late stage would be unlikely. Iran has publicly decried Turkey's invasion, while Putin is publicly sitting on the fence.

rockatansky wrote: »

So what happens if Assads Army push up into current Kurdish Control area and meet the lines of the Turkish Army?

I don't see it happening, (edit: seems like I was wrong) but if it did it would be brinkmanship.

Syrian troops would dare the Turkish troops to attack them. If they didn't, the invasion would probably end, and a stalemate would ensue (as happened before).

If Turkey did attack Syrian troops, then I suppose a state of war would exist between the two countries. This would be really messy. Syria doesn't have a very large military. It is very exhausted after a long war, which it is still fighting. Most of their forces are currently taken up with clearing Idlib of Al Qaeda and Turkish-backed rebels. While they have some good mechanized forces, they couldn't really hope to beat Turkey. This is particularly the case in the air. The only way for Syria to stand a chance is to use Russian hardware (for instance s-400 air defense system) if not actual Russian forces. Essentially Assad would have to get permission from Putin for this type of escalation.

Putin has been very, very happy to drive a wedge between two NATO countries. This conflict helps to drive the wedge further. While Putin probably doesn't trust or like Turkey, having Turkey on side gives him significant leverage. Putin doesn't need to throw his lot into this conflict, so there's not much chance he will, and as such the Syrian forces are probably going to remain, right where they currently are.

Because of international outrage Turkey will probably limit its campaign to a depth of about 30km into Syria (unless they're looking for oil). They'll definately seek to annex Manbij because that's been a bugbear of theirs for a while. Ceding territory to Turkey will be a painful loss for Assad, but he can rationalize that it hasn't been his land for several years at this stage anyway. Turkey won't officially encorporate this Syrian land into Turkey, but will have a puppet rebel organisation administer on their behalf. They will probably force most Kurds living in this territory south, and have many of the refugees currently living in Turkey move into Kurdish towns near the border.