The GOP Primary 2024

Brian? wrote: »

Romney smells like a loser after losing to Obama. He hasn’t a hope.

You'd wonder if the loser stench is something that will effect trump (which is also a big reason he keeps denying the loss).

CPAC is on this weekend and has already begun.


https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1365305729637371904


Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz have already given speeches.


https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1365345637731033088

The laughable thing though is if Trump somehow get's the nomination again it would be comedy gold for the Democrats. They could easily destroy his campaign with a literal "This is the crap we were left cleaning up after this guy" campaign not to mention "Incited Sedition and only got off because of the Republican Party valuing loyalty over the Nation".

Trump got lucky in 2016 because people weren't motivated to vote. He never won the popular vote and any time since 2016 if he campaign's he might get the Trumpy voters out BUT he also has the effect of motivating Democratic Voters out in BIGGER numbers to block him.

If he get's the nomination Republicans will lose as all the Dem's have to do is hit him with his record of failures and screwups and of course the endless "Insurrection" hammer. He's damaged goods and he could possibly be up against an Incumbent if Joe decides to stay in the job in 2024 (In theory he could still go for the presidency and if health issues catch up to him in a year or 2, step down in favour of Kamala)

I don't know if you could compare the 2012 election to the 2016. Both parties ran very different candidates to what they had previously for example and each election is its own beast anyway making comparisons very tough in terms of how one would play out if you'd swapped candidate types if that makes sense.

I think what you saw in 2012 in the GOP was the slide, which has continued even further to the right. McCain was not right wing enough for the base so his running mate was parachuted in as one of their own. It's very rare that presidents don't get two terms so they also had to contend with that.

We did see them make the gains in the house and senate so continued to build from where they had been in 06. We saw more of the extreme elements of the party find a home and the continuing growing influence of social media and disinformation which reached a crescendo of sorts in 2016. Coupled with the perfect storm of the other side having held the wh for 8 years (so normally there is a switch to the other party) and them running a candidate who was so u popular it must have even been a shock to them in the end.

What you see in the GOP is the continuing of the trend, they will continue to run further to the right and play more to the fringe elements as they are the loudest voices as long as they see that working for them. Cruz doing his best trump impression at cpac was no coincidence, but trump he is not. He has no chance of being elected president and he isn't too stupid to realise that but he is too arrogant I believe. He has achieved great success all of his privileged life. Debate champion, Princeton graduate, clerked for supreme court justice. It's not that he doesn't understand how international treaties work for example, but he believes those who support him don't so he plays to that.

While attacking other GOP members they also spoke about how the civil war in the party is a media made up story - Orwell didn't even hit the mark on the double speak enough in retrospect.

I said it a little while ago, it's time to accept that the GOP is what it is, it is exactly where it wants to be on issues. There isn't going to be some road to Damascus moment where someone comes along and saves the soul of the party. That party is gone now, evolved or devolved depending on your point of view.

Those thinking that Trump would lose in a landslide in 2024 vastly, vastly overestimate the intelligence and educational levels of the American voting public.

Not to say he would clearly win, but they (in combination with the EC system) have proven themselves the very definition of the negative side of the saying "a democracy deserves the governance it gets" time, and time, and time again, and will likely vote for what is the shiniest object in the room at any given moment.

If he's mentally & physically fit and not in legal jeopardy there's no way that he won't run, as far as I can see. He absolutely hated the day to day tasks of being President (so much so that he pretty much stopped doing them). However, he absolutely loved the pomp & grandeur of the role and, more than anything, he craves the validation of an election win.

If there's one thing we know about Trump he loves the limelight and can't stand to see anyone else get too much shine. This is a man who has to have the largest portion of food when he dines with other people. A man who can't stand for a conversation not to be about himself. There's no way that he will stand aside and let someone else get all of that attention, even if they are completely subservient to him. That's only going to happen as a last resort - if he himself is blocked from running for either health or legal reasons.

Bobtheman wrote: »

More **** on him will come out about him the next few years. He will be damaged goods by 2024.

What exactly do you think could possibly come out about Trump that could hurt him with the Republican base when he has already:

• Mocked a disabled person
• Mocked war veterans
• Been accused of sexual assault by more than 15 women
• been caught on a microphone bragging about sexual assaults
• bribed a porn star to keep an affair secret prior to the election
• surrounded himself with people who ultimately were convicted of serious crimes
• been accused of having paid practically no tax in years where he was President
• personally asked a foreign leader for damaging information on a political opponent
• presided over a disastrous Covid-19 response with 400k dying under his leadership
• hosted a super spreader event at the white House itself
• fomented an insurrection

and none of those made a dent in his popularity. Some of those he was able to brush off as "fake news" but others were impossible to dispute. His base didn't care either way.

The truth is that there is no act that his base will not ignore so long as he continues to attack the same people and things that they themselves despise. The only thing that could possibly hurt him in their eyes would be an act of contrition, which will never happen, since he is absolutely incapable of apologising for anything.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What exactly do you think could possibly come out about Trump that could hurt him with the Republican base when he has already:

• Mocked a disabled person
• Mocked war veterans
• Been accused of sexual assault by more than 15 women
• been caught on a microphone bragging about sexual assaults
• bribed a porn star to keep an affair secret prior to the election
• surrounded himself with people who ultimately were convicted of serious crimes
• been accused of having paid practically no tax in years where he was President
• personally asked a foreign leader for damaging information on a political opponent
• presided over a disastrous Covid-19 response with 400k dying under his leadership
• hosted a super spreader event at the white House itself
• fomented an insurrection

and none of those made a dent in his popularity. Some of those he was able to brush off as "fake news" but others were impossible to dispute. His base didn't care either way.

The truth is that there is no act that his base will not ignore so long as he continues to attack the same people and things that they themselves despise. The only thing that could possibly hurt him in their eyes would be an act of contrition, which will never happen, since he is absolutely incapable of apologising for anything.

This is the key issue, none of that dents his solid supporters.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Trumps problem is not GOP voters - It's everybody else.

Virtually no-one that voted for Biden last November is going to vote for Trump in 2024 . Trump will do absolutely nothing to try and win over new voters or to "expand his base" he will simply continue to pander to his existing voter base and bather in their reflected adulation.

...

Oh I agree that picking Trump would be a disaster in the General Election. However this thread is about the Republican Nomination where the electorate are the Republican base, which is increasingly now Trump's base.

Trump managed to win the nomination in 2016 with only a plurality of the vote. In the intervening period, the base has become even more concentrated with his supporters. It's difficult to see how the RNC can stop him from pulling off the same feat again even if they know it will likely be a disaster for them with the wider population.

Romney will never be the GOP main ticket for 2 reasons: I would struggle to imagine a Mormon ever being President of the US - there is far too much distrust (distrust isn't really the right word, but I can't think of how to explain it better at the moment) of Mormons generally, and Romney is viewed as far too centrist for the current GOP voter.

Along those lines, I would also struggle to see the current GOP nominating a female when it actually came down to the numbers on the primary. Bachmann is a good example I think, as she was polling extremely well and then her showing in Iowa was absolutely awful (I think she dropped out either right after or shortly thereafter). Carly Fiorina is the only other woman I can remember running in what could be considered the "modern GOP" and she also got completely obliterated in Iowa, but I don't think she ever polled well.

I think if I had to put money on it right now, I'd go Ted Cruz (shudder).

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Totally agree - All other things being equal , If Trump runs he wins the GOP nomination.

But, if Trump is their nominee , they aren't winning the White House (absent them getting away with massive vote suppression).

I think that behind closed doors the GOP are hoping that someone takes Trump out for them so they don't have to do it.

They are secretly hoping that one of the court cases takes him out of the picture.

They then can rail against "the deep state" and "cancel culture" blah blah blah to fire up the base. All the while knowing that it has done them a massive massive favour.

Trump's absence doesn't really solve the problem for the Republicans because it is as much the message as the man who is toxic. If the Republicans are a band and Trump is the singer, any replacement must sing the greatest hits, because that's what their audience wants to hear.

And it's a hell of a message to repackage. Trump has taken all that bigotry, zealotry and xenophobia that was just under the surface and exposed it to the sun and it felt soooo good for all those people. They won't want to go back 'wink, wink, nod, nod, say no more'. They want a firebrand who'll 'tell it like it is', and anyone who does so is not spreading a message of political compromise in any sense, and thus will trigger a strong wave of opposition at the ballot box.

So, it would be voter apathy (or voter suppression) which would be the biggest helps to Trump or a Trumpist getting back into office.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If their traditional pathway to those votes (via gerrymandering and various vote suppression activities) is taken away by the revised voting act, what will their response be?

Well, the Republicans responded to a fair election in a couple of ways. They either baselessly claimed it was rigged, or refused to condemn baseless claims that it was rigged. And this culminated in a violent riot at the US Capitol.

So, if the Republicans can get that bad over that, then I have to think that their response would be something along the lines of, "The Democrats are trying to take over America. They are trying to create a one-party state by rigging the vote in their favour forevermore. Bernie Sanders. AOC. Communism." They probably wouldn't go so far as to lead their voters into a violent confrontation, but they'd just use inflammatory language until nature took its course.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

In any other country on earth the response from a political party to losing a National election by a significant margin would be to reflect on their policy platform and try to identify ways to adjust it to increase their vote.

I wouldn't go so far as to say, 'in any other country on Earth', although I would say 'in any other civilised, functional Democracy." The US remains a functional democracy for now, but its rivets and seams have been put under considerable strain by Trump and Trumpism. The civilised part has gone out the window, and that's dangerous because it's the ability to respect your opponents and rules which underpins the ability of a democracy to function. I don't think the checks and balances can hold out forever in the face of the onslaught they currently face.