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By-Elections 2019

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  • Options
    #122
    Tea Shock
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    The FG party membership didn't even want Varadkar for taoiseach. They voted for Coveney.
    The FG TDs and Senators pushed him across the line.


    The media were selling the narrative for years that Varadkar was hugely popular amongst the public - it was completely made up of course. But the TDs looking for ministerial jobs from the new Taoiseach fell for it and fell over each other to be amongst the first to back him as soon as Kenny said he was going!

    Not just Coveney - I also thing people like Richard Bruton would have been a better party leader/Taoiseach than Varadkar. And I don't say that with the benefit of hindsight - I said it at the time too.


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    #123
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Jermaine Nutritious Mourner wrote: »
    I think it's FF who should be most worried in DMW. Their vote disappeared completely. Yes, Curran would attract more votes than Moynihan, but where did the core FF votes disappear to? I think SF would have a chance of taking a second seat if they can target Gino Kenny's vote with Mark Ward, but it would be risky to run two. Right now North Clondalkin has two TDs in the Dáil, and I don't think that's sustainable - in a full GE it would be one or the other.

    I see the fourth seat there going to Gogarty - Kenny's toast - and SF returning to one.


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    #124
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 13,997 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    9 years almost.

    9 years in government, 4 of them in a minority government, where there have been 3 separate ministers. So, tell us, how exactly can a government like that unilaterally 'fix' the health service?


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    #125
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Bruton would not answer question earlier on whether Verona should be a candidate in GE20. I think they might axe her.


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    #126
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Bruton would not answer question earlier on whether Verona should be a candidate in GE20. I think they might axe her.


    She is toast. The only question now is will she run as an independent and cost FG a seat.


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    #127
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    markodaly wrote: »
    9 years in government, 4 of them in a minority government, where there have been 3 separate ministers. So, tell us, how exactly can a government like that unilaterally 'fix' the health service?

    An improvement would have helped rather than the opposite where there are record numbers on trollies.


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    #128
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,843 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    charlie14 wrote: »
    An improvement would have helped rather than the opposite where there are record numbers on trollies.

    Please stop the delusion that any party or minister will sort the health service. Comedy ! Unless they have a magic wand !

    If you don’t want to tackle vested interests etc and nobody here does , you can’t fix anything , hence nothing gets fixed. Because what is a shambles for some , is a gravy train for others !


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    #129
    McMurphy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    markodaly wrote: »
    9 years in government, 4 of them in a minority government, where there have been 3 separate ministers.

    FG way, it was like this when we got here.
    Labour did that.
    FF made us do that.
    We need more time.

    Nothings ever their fault.

    So, tell us, how exactly can a government like that unilaterally 'fix' the health service?

    I never said that they could, but they said they would, remember?


    ?width=469&version=2358184


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    #130
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    markodaly wrote: »
    9 years in government, 4 of them in a minority government, where there have been 3 separate ministers. So, tell us, how exactly can a government like that unilaterally 'fix' the health service?

    They had a thumping majority in 2011 to go fix it, Enda said he would end the scandal of patients on trollies and the good Dr.James Reilly was the man to do it, finally an actual doctor in charge of the Health Service they said.

    But within weeks of FG taking over we had Dr.James Reilly gerrymandering primary health care centres for his own constituency which resulted in Roisin Shorthall resigning. That set the tone for how serious FG were about fixing the health service and that tone hasnt changed in the last 9 years. FG then put another doctor as Minister for Health and he did nothing either and now we have a journalism graduate who is out of his depth. Thats all on FG, its been their portfolio for all of those 9 years. They promised to fix it and it has gotten worse under their tenure.
    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Bruton would not answer question earlier on whether Verona should be a candidate in GE20. I think they might axe her.

    I think they're just politicking at the moment and giving her a slap on the wrist. Would be surprised if they dumped her after she gave a good showing. She would just run as an independent anyway so they're kind of stuck with her now.


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    #131
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    If FG were to get back in (which I think is unlikely at the moment) I could absolutely see Richard Bruton being Minister for Health. Any job he’s had he seems to stabilise it.


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    #132
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,072 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    [QUOTE=Muahahaha;111915674

    I think they're just politicking at the moment and giving her a slap on the wrist. Would be surprised if they dumped her after she gave a good showing. She would just run as an independent anyway so they're kind of stuck with her now.[/QUOTE]

    Pat Leahy said on the radio earlier on everyone he had talked to in FG wanted her gone, particularly over her last-minute 'campaign video', which was seen as the action of a loose cannon.


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    #133
    KWAG2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 834 ✭✭✭KWAG2019


    Faugheen wrote: »
    If FG were to get back in (which I think is unlikely at the moment) I could absolutely see Richard Bruton being Minister for Health. Any job he’s had he seems to stabilise it.

    Lol. Bruton made a dogs dinner out of education. Talk to anyone in 3rd level or 2nd level about the stupidity he promoted. His party trick is to make grandiose announcements and expect them to be fulfilled by voluntary labour. The change in History for the new JC was crucially needed after he rubberstamped Ruairi’s sly elimination of it. If Brutons had their way we’d be back bowing to British royalty again.


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    #134
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    Please stop the delusion that any party or minister will sort the health service. Comedy ! Unless they have a magic wand !

    If you don’t want to tackle vested interests etc and nobody here does , you can’t fix anything , hence nothing gets fixed. Because what is a shambles for some , is a gravy train for others !


    So FG have been lying to us promising they would sort the health service ?
    Btw, I wasn`t saying they should sort it overnight, but the very least I would have expected from their 9 years in charge is a reduction of the numbers on trollies rather than the opposite.
    I doubt many see comedy in that.


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    #135
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 13,997 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    FG way, it was like this when we got here.

    Well, you are correct in stating that the HSE was the way it was when it was handed to them in 2011 along with a near bankrupt state, but lets move on shall we.

    Enda Kenny was wrong in 2011 because like other politicans before him, he told us the fib that only his party have the answer to the problem. Maybe he believed it at the time, but the HSE and all the other vested interest groups had other ideas.

    All of us should now realise this. This is why we should beware of similar empty grandoise promises about silver bullets for the HSE and overall health service.
    Ill repeat it again and again.

    The Health service is too big a problem by a single party, TD, minister or politican. If you hear someone saying otherwise, they are willfully lying to you. I do not care, if its FG, FF, SF or anyone else stating this, ill call them out on it.

    In fact I hope that the 'promise' made in 2011 by Enda Kenny will be the last time such a promise is made by a party leader. I hope the electorate realise the gravity of the issue, so we can move on with poltical point scoring and actually come to a consensus to fix the issue.

    What the government have done is endorsed Slaintecare, a cross party strategy in planning and reforming our health service. Although I may not agree with the entire plan, the fact that this approach to improving our health service is now the ONLY game in town. It also means that all other poltical partyies who put their name to it, cannot then turn arond months later and decry the 'government' to make some cheap poltii\cal point.

    That is how a mature political system should operate.


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    #136
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 13,997 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    They had a thumping majority in 2011 to go fix it, Enda said he would end the scandal of patients on trollies and the good Dr.James Reilly was the man to do it, finally an actual doctor in charge of the Health Service they said.

    They as in FG along with Labour? What majority did FG have in 2011?
    Oh, that is correct, they had none!
    I mentioned before, do you honestly think the Irish Labour party, who are financed by the likes of SIPTU are really going to take the knife out an affect their members?
    I have some magic beans to sell if you are interested.

    But within weeks of FG taking over we had Dr.James Reilly gerrymandering primary health care centres for his own constituency which resulted in Roisin Shorthall resigning. That set the tone for how serious FG were about fixing the health service and that tone hasnt changed in the last 9 years. FG then put another doctor as Minister for Health and he did nothing either and now we have a journalism graduate who is out of his depth. Thats all on FG, its been their portfolio for all of those 9 years. They promised to fix it and it has gotten worse under their tenure.

    I am not here to defend James Reilly or his tenure as minister of health, but that is streaching the truth somewhat. Rosin Shorthall resigned for various reasons butnow heads up committee for Slaintecare. Is Slaintecare something you support or not? Rosin Shorthall now has tremendous influence of the planning and strategic planning of the health system, something far beyond her reach in 2011, yet now you are giving her a free pass?

    People are fogetting all about Slaintecare it seems as they are thinking about health the old fashioned way. Health policy creation is now of all political parties. Slaintcare has been in planning since 2016, after the last election, yet expect FG to unilatterally do 'something' to fix the health service.
    People want their cake and eat it.

    As an aside, not one person has told us what FG should realisticly do to fix the health service. There is no silver bullet or panacea.


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    #137
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,252 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    markodaly wrote: »
    They as in FG along with Labour? What majority did FG have in 2011?
    Oh, that is correct, they had none!
    I mentioned before, do you honestly think the Irish Labour party, who are financed by the likes of SIPTU are really going to take the knife out an affect their members?
    I have some magic beans to sell if you are interested.




    I am not here to defend James Reilly or his tenure as minister of health, but that is streaching the truth somewhat. Rosin Shorthall resigned for various reasons butnow heads up committee for Slaintecare. Is Slaintecare something you support or not? Rosin Shorthall now has tremendous influence of the planning and strategic planning of the health system, something far beyond her reach in 2011, yet now you are giving her a free pass?

    People are fogetting all about Slaintecare it seems as they are thinking about health the old fashioned way. Health policy creation is now of all political parties. Slaintcare has been in planning since 2016, after the last election, yet expect FG to unilatterally do 'something' to fix the health service.
    People want their cake and eat it.

    As an aside, not one person has told us what FG should realisticly do to fix the health service. There is no silver bullet or panacea.

    What a sensible post which is rare around here.


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    #138
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,251 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    With over 26% last GE, unless the FG vote collapsed completely Higgins will definitely get a seat. Other than that the only change I would see is SF going after Kenny`s vote and splitting O`Brion`s looking to take two that could leave them with both or none.
    Cannot see O`Brion going for that though, so highly likely no change.

    Sinn Fein are left with an interesting conundrum.

    24% in a by-election, if increased to 27-28% in a general election, and split evenly, could mean two seats, if the transfer toxicity has reduced. On the other hand, if that 24% was exaggerated by the low turnout, and the real figure is below the 22% O'Broin got in the last election, there is a risk of losing both, as 17% split evenly, could leave them in fifth place and without a seat.

    SF 1, FF 1, FG 1, and the last between Gogarty and Kenny, with Gogarty marginal favourite because of the Green connection, is how I would call it now, but there is a long way to go.


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    #139
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    markodaly wrote: »
    They as in FG along with Labour? What majority did FG have in 2011?
    Oh, that is correct, they had none!
    I mentioned before, do you honestly think the Irish Labour party, who are financed by the likes of SIPTU are really going to take the knife out an affect their members?
    I have some magic beans to sell if you are interested.

    I am not here to defend James Reilly or his tenure as minister of health, but that is streaching the truth somewhat. Rosin Shorthall resigned for various reasons butnow heads up committee for Slaintecare. Is Slaintecare something you support or not? Rosin Shorthall now has tremendous influence of the planning and strategic planning of the health system, something far beyond her reach in 2011, yet now you are giving her a free pass?

    People are fogetting all about Slaintecare it seems as they are thinking about health the old fashioned way. Health policy creation is now of all political parties. Slaintcare has been in planning since 2016, after the last election, yet expect FG to unilatterally do 'something' to fix the health service.
    People want their cake and eat it.

    As an aside, not one person has told us what FG should realisticly do to fix the health service. There is no silver bullet or panacea.


    Are you going to give every future coalition government a free pass on twiddling their thumbs if health care is collapsing ?
    It certainly sounds that way, or is it just going to be coalition governments led by FG.


    2011 FG had 76 seats (7 short of an overall majority) and Labour had 37. That gave that government 113 seats where the main opposition party, in a very fractured opposition, had 24.
    Labour sold their soul for cabinet seats in 2011 and from the water metering fiasco that wasted 1,000,000,000 euro of taxpayers money, it is more than obvious the Labour party come hell or high water were not going to take their behinds off those cabinet seats until their ministerial pension were guaranteed.
    FG could have sacrificed every SIPTU members first born and Labour wouldn`t have budged.
    To somehow attempt to suggest that FG could not do anything about health care because of Labour is farcical.


    Slaintecare is nothing more than Harris, who is completely out of his depth, attempting to put on some spin that he is improving the service. Which is par for FG over the last 8 years where spin has greatly outweighed substance

    Even the two most powerful people in government aren`t keen on it.
    Pascal Donohue will not give it funding and Varadkar didn`t even turn up for the launch.
    Between one committee and another it has been a talking shop since June 2016 with the grand total to date invested in actual projects 20M.

    That is roughly 1/4 of the money thrown to consultants in the set up of the Irish Water fiasco. Goes to show just how serious this government are about Slaintecare.


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    #140
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Sinn Fein are left with an interesting conundrum.

    24% in a by-election, if increased to 27-28% in a general election, and split evenly, could mean two seats, if the transfer toxicity has reduced. On the other hand, if that 24% was exaggerated by the low turnout, and the real figure is below the 22% O'Broin got in the last election, there is a risk of losing both, as 17% split evenly, could leave them in fifth place and without a seat.

    SF 1, FF 1, FG 1, and the last between Gogarty and Kenny, with Gogarty marginal favourite because of the Green connection, is how I would call it now, but there is a long way to go.


    Possibly, but SF are the only party with a chance of taking two seats in that constituency.

    The Greens are definitely in there with a shout, but if SF did split their vote and successfully target Kenny`s vote, then with him being a member of PBP his vote would be more likely to go their way than to the Greens


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    #141
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,251 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Possibly, but SF are the only party with a chance of taking two seats in that constituency.

    The Greens are definitely in there with a shout, but if SF did split their vote and successfully target Kenny`s vote, then with him being a member of PBP his vote would be more likely to go their way than to the Greens

    Gogarty is an independent Green, which gives him the opportunity to take some of that Kenny vote rather than a "pure" Green who would have less of a chance.

    You are right that SF are the only party with a chance of taking two seats, but that means O'Broin has to be prepared to risk losing his. I don't get the sense that he is.


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    #142
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    I could see O’Broin contesting for Dublin West. There’s a Sinn Fein vote there but they just don’t trust Paul Donnelly enough. O’Broin knocks on the doors and gets the voters out.


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    #143
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,251 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Faugheen wrote: »
    I could see O’Broin contesting for Dublin West. There’s a Sinn Fein vote there but they just don’t trust Paul Donnelly enough. O’Broin knocks on the doors and gets the voters out.


    Can't see it.

    Varadkar, Chambers, Burton, Coppinger, Currie and O'Gorman are six candidates for four seats.

    Can't see O'Broin breaking in. Each of them have their own local pockets of support.


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    #144
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,072 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Gogarty is an independent Green, which gives him the opportunity to take some of that Kenny vote rather than a "pure" Green who would have less of a chance.

    You are right that SF are the only party with a chance of taking two seats, but that means O'Broin has to be prepared to risk losing his. I don't get the sense that he is.

    A 'Green pool independent' I saw him described. Possibly planning to return to the mothership if elected, especially if the Greens find themselves in government again?


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    #145
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Gogarty is an independent Green, which gives him the opportunity to take some of that Kenny vote rather than a "pure" Green who would have less of a chance.

    You are right that SF are the only party with a chance of taking two seats, but that means O'Broin has to be prepared to risk losing his. I don't get the sense that he is.


    I don`t see that being a different shade of green would give Gogarty a better chance of taking a seat. In fact I would imagine being true green would give him a better chance.


    With most parties I would not see the longer sitting TD agreeing to split his vote, but O`Broin from reports put in a serious effort in the by election to get their man elected so hard to tell what he will agree to.
    Faughen has a good point. He might just move to Dublin West. SF had 14.38% there 2016 with Copinger on 15.64 and Burton on 15.36.
    That could come down to three for two seats. If I was Burton and O`Broin moves over I would not feel anyway safe.
    Even without O`Broin I think Burton will be in trouble.


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    #146
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,251 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I don`t see that being a different shade of green would give Gogarty a better chance of taking a seat. In fact I would imagine being true green would give him a better chance.


    With most parties I would not see the longer sitting TD agreeing to split his vote, but O`Broin from reports put in a serious effort in the by election to get their man elected so hard to tell what he will agree to.
    Faughen has a good point. He might just move to Dublin West. SF had 14.38% there 2016 with Copinger on 15.64 and Burton on 15.36.
    That could come down to three for two seats. If I was Burton and O`Broin moves over I would not feel anyway safe.
    Even without O`Broin I think Burton will be in trouble.

    I think Burton is in trouble too, but O'Gorman did very well in the locals and is very active locally, could be part of a Green surge.

    Varadkar's surplus will also be key to whether Austin Currie's daughter can get in on his coat-tails.

    Sinn Fein went backwards in the locals in Dublin West.


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    #147
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Can't see it.

    Varadkar, Chambers, Burton, Coppinger, Currie and O'Gorman are six candidates for four seats.

    Can't see O'Broin breaking in. Each of them have their own local pockets of support.

    Only two I could see beating O’Broin from that list are Leo and Chambers.

    He knows how to get people out to vote, and SF already have a solid base there, just not enough to get over the line. A star name like O’Broin (whatever you may think of the Shinners, he’ll lead them one day) and it changes everything.


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    #148
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,072 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Even without O`Broin I think Burton will be in trouble.

    Is Burton confirmed as running again? Getting on now...


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    #149
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I think Burton is in trouble too, but O'Gorman did very well in the locals and is very active locally, could be part of a Green surge.

    Varadkar's surplus will also be key to whether Austin Currie's daughter can get in on his coat-tails.

    Sinn Fein went backwards in the locals in Dublin West.


    O`Gorman did well in the locals but it would be a long way from 4.12% of FPVs in 2016 to a seat in 2019 with all the big guns in that constituency. Especially if O`Broin does decide to run there.


    I would not see Varadkar having enough (if any) surplus to get a running mate a seat.
    He only reached the quota on the third count due to his running mate`s elimination after the second count.

    The combined FG vote in 2016 was 22%. Unless Varadkar is going to split a lesser vote than SF in Mid West then there is no chance of FG taking a second seat.
    A greater chance of taking none in fact as there are much lesser chance of pickings in West for FG than there are for SF in Mid West.


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    #150
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Is Burton confirmed as running again? Getting on now...


    Not sure, but if she doesn`t it would more than likely help O`Broin if he does run there. A fair percentage of her vote I suspect is personal and might not transfer to another Labour candidate.


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    #151
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,072 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Not sure, but if she doesn`t it would more than likely help O`Broin if he does run there. A fair percentage of her vote I suspect is personal and might not transfer to another Labour candidate.

    Yeah you'd think the second 'left' seat after Coppinger would be up for grabs.


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