Who will be Ireland's 1st choice outhalf at the next world cup?

bayern · 11-11-2020 8:55am #1

Who ye got?

Contenders ordered by age as of Sept 1st 2023:

Jack Carty(31/Connacht)
Billy Burns(29/Ulster)
Ross Byrne(28/Leinster)
Joey Carbery(27/Munster)
Conor Fitzgerald(26/Connacht)
Michael Lowry(25/Ulster)
Ben Healy(24/Munster)
Harry Byrne(24/Leinster)
Jack Crowley(23/Munster)

11-11-2020 9:48am

I still think Joey Carbery is the most naturally gifted outhalf we've produced since Sexton so if fit he would be my pick.

I really don't know after that - Harry Byrne looks like he might have the widest skill set combined with good athleticism.

Sexton is arguably one of the best players we've ever produced in any position - it's going to be an incredibly tough act to follow.

aloooof · 11-11-2020 9:58am

There’s an alternative possibility (like 2011) where we end up going into the tournament not knowing who our 1st choice 10 is.

England managed it in 2019 where Farrell started all 6N games at 10 but they played the RWC semi-final and final with 10. Ford 12. Farrell. But I don’t think we currently have anyone of that calibre.

I’m hoping this indefinite break for Carbery will help solve his injury issues. Even then, pinning you hopes on him comes with risk given his injury profile. I think one of Carbery or Harry Byrne

pickarooney · 11-11-2020 11:09am

Hopefully one of 5-8 will have staked his claim.
I don't rate Carty as a starting international 10, Ross Byrne is bang average, Billy Burns could have improved his game by then or might have moved on, Carbery is finished. Never heard of the last guy.

hahashake · 11-11-2020 11:22am

No Sexton?

Zzippy · 11-11-2020 11:23am

Carbery and Healy ahead of the pack so far. Realistically, we can't have two 10s who could be starting for Ireland fighting for game time at the same province. One will surely have to move...

11-11-2020 11:24am

Could be quite the drought of mediocrity after Sexton retires

sydthebeat · 11-11-2020 11:28am

Zzippy wrote: »

Carbery and Healy ahead of the pack so far. Realistically, we can't have two 10s who could be starting for Ireland fighting for game time at the same province. One will surely have to move...

carbery and H Byrne

Zzippy · 11-11-2020 11:37am

Ha, you're right. How did I see that wrong!

kingofthekong · 11-11-2020 12:08pm

As far as talent goes I think Carberry and H byrne are two best,

However its so far out with injuries and form its so hard to tell,

As of right now presuming all fit - Carberry and H Byrne look the most likely for me

Dubinusa · 11-11-2020 5:24pm

I still don't think Carberry is the answer. He failed to bump RB at Leinster and was playing at fb! His injury profile is alarming also.
RB, Carty are leading the also ranks imo. Burns is worth a look at, but he doesn't take the kicks at Ulster.
Healy and HB are the lads to keep an eye on. They both look very capable.

aloooof · 11-11-2020 5:40pm

Dubinusa wrote: »

I still don't think Carberry is the answer. He failed to bump RB at Leinster and was playing at fb!

I'm not sure it's that simple, as it wasn't like Ross Byrne was 10 and Carberry in the 22 jersey. My take is that they preferred to have the combination of
10. RB
14. Larmour
15. Carbery

over, say
10. Carbery
14. Daly
15. Larmour
22. Byrne

What we can say for certain is that, at any opportunity an international level, Carbery has been ahead of RB.

I do agree with you tho, his injury worries are a massive concern.

sydthebeat · 11-11-2020 5:42pm

so sexton starts at 12 then???

El_Duderino 09 · 11-11-2020 6:11pm

hahashake wrote: »

No Sexton?

Absolutely no sexton. He’s been a great servant and a real positive to the team, but he’s winding down now. He’s in the phase of the game where he used to do things, doesn’t do those things anymore but still gets credit for it. Hearing sexton referred to as a running threat is just a lie at this stage. And I heard a podcast talking about how he “carries the ball so close the the line“ and that’s also not true anymore.

Anyone noticed the reduction in the late hits on sexton recently? That’s because he’s not carrying the ball as close to the line but he still gets credit for the work he did in 2017 as if he’s was doing it in 2020.

And as long as there isn’t an obvious, readymade, replacement for sexton, it’s excusable to pretend he’s still playing at 2017 levels. But at some point we have to pull the plug and shake his hand and tell him “thanks for all the hard work”.

I hope that next year they draw a line under the sexton era and start playing H Byrne and Carbery if he makes it back from injury.

ELM327 · 11-11-2020 6:13pm

Sexton will still be playing then, you're delusional if you think he's not starting.

Squidgy Black · 11-11-2020 6:20pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Sexton will still be playing then, you're delusional if you think he's not starting.

You genuinely think Sexton will be starting at 38 years old?

aloooof · 11-11-2020 6:22pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Sexton will still be playing then, you're delusional if you think he's not starting.

3 years is a long time in rugby at the best of times, let alone for a 35 year old out-half. Personally think you're way off the mark here.

As for the "delusional" comment, it's just condescending, hubristic and adds zero to the conversation.

briandebum · 11-11-2020 6:52pm

I do try and make the effort to watch the U-20s every year. I think if Crowley gets the gametime he could be special. But I also thought Bill Johnston was also the best upcoming outhalf at that level, goes to show how hard it is to predict these guys careers. So much comes down to injuries and also opportunity.

Dubinusa · 11-11-2020 6:52pm

I hope Sexton is done by the next rwc. He's not the player he was and will decline more with age. I hope someone else takes the reins.
It is a shame what happened with Jackson. I think he would be starting if he was still playing here in Ireland.

Neil3030 · 11-11-2020 6:55pm

I reckon it will be one of Carbery, Healy or H Byrne.

For the sake of a punt, I'll say Healy. He really seems to tick more boxes at his age than anyone else I've seen in quite some time.

However, the wildcard here for me is Craig Casey. Size is the obvious issue, but if he can get into the Munster team ahead of Murray, that could decide Ireland's 10 in 2023. Because I just don't see a 10 developing core strategic skills at the highest level when the 9 is making all the decisions.

theVersatile · 11-11-2020 7:18pm

Joey if he stays fit - if he doesn't then it could be anyone really.

El_Duderino 09 · 11-11-2020 7:22pm

theVersatile wrote: »

Joey if he stays fit - if he doesn't then it could be anyone really.

Any player who has been out for that long has to be reintroduced with skepticism and has to re-earn their place. Joey has been out for over a year and has no estimated return date yet.

I hope he can get back to where he was but I’d take nothing for granted.

12-11-2020 2:06am

It's really bad that I can't confidently choose anyone from that poll. Carbery if fit I guess.

Uriel. · 12-11-2020 2:18am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's really bad that I can't confidently choose anyone from that poll. Carbery if fit I guess.

That's because there is a glaring omission..
Mads to come back to D4 and lead Ireland to a WC semi final, tears and all.

Dubinusa · 12-11-2020 5:40pm

Alternatively, who will be our 9?

Dog Botherer · 12-11-2020 9:09pm

Dubinusa wrote: »

Alternatively, who will be our 9?

i’ll do it

KaneToad · 12-11-2020 10:43pm

Ciaran Frawley

Heres Johnny · 12-11-2020 10:56pm

No 38 year old will be playing 10 for Ireland, or any other country for that matter, in the next world cup. Think there may have been 1 or 2 forwards of that age for tier 2 or 3 nations in the past but not for a contending team. Even the great Dan Carter knew his time in black was up in 2015 and he was 33 or so then. BOD too.
I commend sextons drive to want to be there, but it just ain't happening folks.

El_Duderino 09 · 12-11-2020 11:36pm

Heres Johnny wrote: »

No 38 year old will be playing 10 for Ireland, or any other country for that matter, in the next world cup. Think there may have been 1 or 2 forwards of that age for tier 2 or 3 nations in the past but not for a contending team. Even the great Dan Carter knew his time in black was up in 2015 and he was 33 or so then. BOD too.
I commend sextons drive to want to be there, but it just ain't happening folks.

I think it’s unlikely but there’s a clear path to being forced to play him: There isn’t a clear successor and most of the best candidates are very young and inexperienced at the top level. Johnny was a world class player and has the influence of a tip top player so it won’t be easy to drop him while he’s still better than his potential replacements.

So they could end up continuing with Sexton until it’s too late to try the new guys. How long until we start hearing talk of “what he brings to the dressing room”, which is code for “not doing it on the pitch but it feels comfortable to play him anyway”.

It’s also difficult for a coach to drop him. If they play Sexton and lose then it’s everyone’s fault. If you drop sexton and lose then it’s the coach’s fault. Much easier to just keep playing him this year and next year and hope a player comes along to usurp him so they don’t have to make the difficult decision to drop him or not give him another year’s contract.

kingofthekong · 13-11-2020 9:53am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think it’s unlikely but there’s a clear path to being forced to play him: There isn’t a clear successor and most of the best candidates are very young and inexperienced at the top level. Johnny was a world class player and has the influence of a tip top player so it won’t be easy to drop him while he’s still better than his potential replacements.

So they could end up continuing with Sexton until it’s too late to try the new guys. How long until we start hearing talk of “what he brings to the dressing room”, which is code for “not doing it on the pitch but it feels comfortable to play him anyway”.

It’s also difficult for a coach to drop him. If they play Sexton and lose then it’s everyone’s fault. If you drop sexton and lose then it’s the coach’s fault. Much easier to just keep playing him this year and next year and hope a player comes along to usurp him so they don’t have to make the difficult decision to drop him or not give him another year’s contract.

Could end up seeing some kind of Rog/sexton situation at the 2011 rwc - except this time its Sexton being in Rog's shoes

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 11:38am

kingofthekong wrote: »

Could end up seeing some kind of Rog/sexton situation at the 2011 rwc - except this time its Sexton being in Rog's shoes

Sexton's contract is up at the end of the season.
It wont be renewed. Bon voyage to Pro14

I've voted for Carbery. But he does look too frail considering his injuries.
He may have to get moved to FB to protect him a bit more and also allow Crowley to emerge.
Prob the best medium to long term plan considering the lack of depth at FB.
Fingers crossed Harry Byrne is also the real deal.

hahashake · 13-11-2020 12:35pm

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

KaneToad · 13-11-2020 12:53pm

hahashake wrote: »

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

He's stated that he's keen to do a Tom Brady. He's still the best 10 in Leinster & Ireland, albeit not as good as he once was. I don't see why he wouldn't be given another contract...

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 1:00pm

hahashake wrote: »

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

Yes but you must weigh it against the other facts.
He will be 36
He has played poorly in all of Ireland's biggest games for the last 18 months Eng 2019, Wales 2019, NZ 2019 and England & France 2020.
He's not improving.
He's on a €700k contract that is partly funded by Dennis O'Brien and the IRFU has a massive hole in it's pockets.

They also have to renew these other contracts in 2021
CJ
Furlong
Henderson

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

alias no.9 · 13-11-2020 1:11pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think it’s unlikely but there’s a clear path to being forced to play him: There isn’t a clear successor and most of the best candidates are very young and inexperienced at the top level.

In his early career, Sexton was given game time for Ireland when he couldn't kick snow off a rope, that was succession planning, it was the right thing then and it's the right thing now.

Regardless of how the game is going, Burns needs to get 40 minutes tonight, probably needs Murray to come on too for kicking but if JGP is going well maybe delay Murray for 15 minutes.

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 1:19pm

alias no.9 wrote: »

In his early career, Sexton was given game time for Ireland when he couldn't kick snow off a rope, that was succession planning, it was the right thing then and it's the right thing now.

Regardless of how the game is going, Burns needs to get 40 minutes tonight, probably needs Murray to come on too for kicking but if JGP is going well maybe delay Murray for 15 minutes.

Sexton started brilliantly and went from strength to strength in 2009 Nov through the 2010 6N and into 2011 6N.

For some reason Kidney then selected O'Gara v Wales in 2011 6N and again in RWC. ROG was 34. It didnt go well.

Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

El_Duderino 09 · 13-11-2020 2:11pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

...
Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

The other problem is that the succession plan has never actually had a run of games at 10. As soon as he was added to the Ireland squad he was put on the same schedule as sexton so they tended to only be available together so sexton played 10 and Carbery played 15. Then he moved to Munster to play 10 and has been injured almost the entire time since.

That isn’t meant as a slight against him or his potential, but his potential as a 10 hasn’t been proven yet.

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 2:28pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The other problem is that the succession plan has never actually had a run of games at 10. As soon as he was added to the Ireland squad he was put on the same schedule as sexton so they tended to only be available together so sexton played 10 and Carbery played 15. Then he moved to Munster to play 10 and has been almost the entire time since.

That isn’t meant as a slight against him or his potential, but his potential as a 10 hasn’t been proven yet.

Potential has been proven (v NZ Chicago Debut '16, v Aus Brisbane ''17, v Scot Murrayfield '19)
But he is not yet a proven international 10

Cullen starting him at FB in March 2017 didnt help him and ultimately led to Munster

alias no.9 · 13-11-2020 4:42pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

Sexton started brilliantly and went from strength to strength in 2009 Nov through the 2010 6N and into 2011 6N.

For some reason Kidney then selected O'Gara v Wales in 2011 6N and again in RWC. ROG was 34. It didnt go well.

Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

Rose tinted spectacles. Missed penalties were the difference between Ireland and Scotland in Croke Park in 2010. Loosing at home to Scotland in the 6 nations is never part of the plan.

We know Sexton won't be at the next World Cup, Burns may be.

Zeugnis · 13-11-2020 4:59pm

Carbery is not centrally contracted.

CMcsporty wrote: »

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

hahashake · 13-11-2020 5:14pm

I understand Top14 clubs going after Sexton but it's in his own hands, and he has admitted he wants to prolong his career as much as he can. He is already well paid (as well as the tax break issue) so I can see him being pushed rather than jumping.

bilston · 13-11-2020 9:38pm

Where's the Conor Murray option?

un5byh7sqpd2x0 · 14-11-2020 1:04am

+1 Murray is a definite candidate.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-11-2020 1:28am

Edwin Attractive Dungeon wrote: »

+1 Murray is a definite candidate.

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

thomond2006 · 14-11-2020 1:36am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

We are way off Murray being under pressure for his 9 jersey at Munster.

14-11-2020 1:41am

Murray is probably the worst kicker in world rugby

The Lost Sheep · 14-11-2020 1:48am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

should he? As while Casey has great potential he isnt near being ready to take 9 from Murray. And the others arent either and what would you like to be done about the 10 issue in Ireland then?

Deleted User wrote: »

Murray is probably the worst kicker in world rugby

Based on what exactly?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-11-2020 11:09am

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

...And the others arent either and what would you like to be done about the 10 issue in Ireland then?

The last line of the post you quoted was “We need to be serious and give the options game time“.

As long as they don’t re-sign Sexton for next year, then it’ll be fine. All the 10 options need time at provincial and national level. It’ll be a step down in experience and maybe (maybe not by then) in quality initially. But it’s worth the investment.

WoollyRedHat · 21-11-2020 7:15pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

Yes but you must weigh it against the other facts.
He will be 36
He has played poorly in all of Ireland's biggest games for the last 18 months Eng 2019, Wales 2019, NZ 2019 and England & France 2020.
He's not improving.
He's on a €700k contract that is partly funded by
Dennis O'Brien and the IRFU has a massive hole in it's pockets.

They also have to renew these other contracts in 2021
CJ
Furlong
Henderson

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

IRFU shouldn't accept a cent of DOB money. Trying to curry favors to avoid scrutiny.

hahashake · 02-12-2020 12:41pm

"'Do I think I can get to the World Cup? I think I can'"

https://www.the42.ie/sexton-ireland-world-cup-5284978-Dec2020/

td1 · 02-12-2020 12:56pm

hahashake wrote: »

https://www.the42.ie/sexton-ireland-world-cup-5284978-Dec2020/

If JS is in the frame for the next World Cup squad, it'll be an indictment of our professional set up

Who will be Ireland's 1st choice outhalf at the next world cup?

Who is 1st choice outhalf at the 2023 World Cup? 236 votes

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