Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora · 07-01-2013 12:18am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The details not quite right. But the GFS has totally dropped its idea of the powering up the polar vortex in the the medium FI range. Which in my opinion is a bigger jump than the ECM, which keeps a similar but less favourable theme.

0Z runs should be fun to see in the morning! Even if we end up without a single snowflake there will be plenty more entertainment with the models in the days ahead. I love it.

BEASTERLY · 07-01-2013 12:34am

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z runs should be fun to see in the morning! Even if we end up without a single snowflake there will be plenty more entertainment with the models in the days ahead. I love it.

So do I, but I love snow even more.

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 1:12am

Oh boy this is great stuff. I love model madness when a major event is taking place ie Strat Warming.

They are only still finding there feet folks.
Your Heads will fall off at this rate with so many twists and turns.

Anyway patient is a virtue so they say.

I'm not believing any model past 48 hours at the moment but just taking all 50 Ecm member for next Sunday sees 10 of the 50 showing -6 or more upper air similar to this.

BEASTERLY · 07-01-2013 1:15am

Redsunset, any idea when the models could get a real grip again?

BEASTERLY · 07-01-2013 1:23am

The majority GEFS member go for higher pressure in the north atlantic.

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 1:23am

Easterly flow from strat reaching down and influencing trop conditions would have major impact on model. Bit like flicking on a switch, ya get me.

maquiladora · 07-01-2013 1:27am

According to nouska on TWO, the two top analogues for the current SSW are Jan 1985 and Jan 1963. Maybe something to think about other than the computer models.

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 1:35am

Yes as regards the QBO, conditions now are extremely similar to 84-85 winter. It was a double winter easterly QBO where the previous autumn conditions were a match for now. Guess what happened next?

Not saying same will happen mind but this is fun.

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 1:56am

QBO DATA

1983
10.85 11.40 12.17 13.81 11.93 3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42

1984
-10.65 -11.34 -12.98 -14.58 -15.05 -17.97 -25.39 -27.90 -25.44 -21.59 -13.19 -8.16

2011
9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25

2012
-16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02

Comparing the two sets we see in both that the easterly QBO only gets going midway into first year of the double.
It takes many months for the westerly influence to clear before the ongoing easterly QBO can reach down and influence matters like now. Hope this helps.

compsys · 07-01-2013 2:39am

Redsunset wrote: »

Oh boy this is great stuff. I love model madness when a major event is taking place ie Strat Warming.

They are only still finding there feet folks.
Your Heads will fall off at this rate with so many twists and turns.

Anyway patient is a virtue so they say.

I'm not believing any model past 48 hours at the moment but just taking all 50 Ecm member for next Sunday sees 10 of the 50 showing -6 or more upper air similar to this.

But what are the other 40 of the 50 ECM members showing? Just because 10 are showing -6 uppers it hardly means its going to happen no?

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 2:44am

Who said it's going to happen. I already said I don't trust a model past 48hrs at the moment.

compsys · 07-01-2013 3:15am

Redsunset wrote: »

Who said it's going to happen. I already said I don't trust a model past 48hrs at the moment.

Yes, but I'm just wondering what it is exactly that the models are showing, in general, past 3/4 days?

You said 10 of the ECM members are showing -6 uppers. Are all the 40 others showing much milder conditions?

I probably love the cold and the snow more than anyone else on here and would love to see some, but too many people on here have a tendency to pick out one or two random runs from FI that happen to show some cold, ramp it up, and then completely ignore the vast majority of the rest of the runs.

I guess I'm just trying to figure out for myself how likely it is that a cold spell may develop later in the week so that I'm not disappointed.

Harps · 07-01-2013 9:32am

Haven't really been following the weather for the past 2 weeks but a quick look at the GFS runs this morning show nothing remarkable with pretty good agreement for the next 7 days, 850hPa temp over the country rarely if ever below -5C. After that, spread is too wide to take anything seriously. Doesn't look like anything too interesting in the short term but at least it'll be a change from the seemingly never ending drizzle of the past week

Rebelbrowser · 07-01-2013 10:24am

Harps wrote: »

Haven't really been following the weather for the past 2 weeks but a quick look at the GFS runs this morning show nothing remarkable with pretty good agreement for the next 7 days, 850hPa temp over the country rarely if ever below -5C. After that, spread is too wide to take anything seriously. Doesn't look like anything too interesting in the short term but at least it'll be a change from the seemingly never ending drizzle of the past week

Any "Risque Neige" at all at all is progress.... I even see a 30% there on 18 Jan - I like those odds (relatively speaking)!

Rebelbrowser · 07-01-2013 10:36am

compsys wrote: »

Yes, but I'm just wondering what it is exactly that the models are showing, in general, past 3/4 days?

You said 10 of the ECM members are showing -6 uppers. Are all the 40 others showing much milder conditions?

I probably love the cold and the snow more than anyone else on here and would love to see some, but too many people on here have a tendency to pick out one or two random runs from FI that happen to show some cold, ramp it up, and then completely ignore the vast majority of the rest of the runs.

I guess I'm just trying to figure out for myself how likely it is that a cold spell may develop later in the week so that I'm not disappointed.

Have a look yourself - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php . These are freely available to all.

Jaffusmaximus · 07-01-2013 10:42am

Such spread from -6 to +1 on the AO! This was modeled to go positive in a big way just a few days back.

Min · 07-01-2013 5:17pm

Current GFS run the 12z is an upgrade for the core of the cold over Europe.

We on the periphery wouldn't have it too bad in terms of cold upto 150hr in current run.

Jaffusmaximus · 07-01-2013 5:23pm

From Ian Ferguson over on Netweather!

"Just wanted to stress an important (indeed critical, for this thread) bit of guidance from our medium range folk at Exeter: Do NOT confuse current outlook for a return to the cooler conditions next few days with SSW effect. The latter has NOT yet shown it's hand in any NWP output in any reliable sense. They continue to expect this next key phase - with hugely uncertain outcome - to become a feature appearing from around 10d onwards, and NOT in the more near-term medium range. Current set-up into weekend / early next week etc is not related to SSW in their estimation - just bob-standard winter fare."

whitebriar · 07-01-2013 5:28pm

Min wrote: »

Current GFS run the 12z is an upgrade for the core of the cold over Europe.

We on the periphery wouldn't have it too bad in terms of cold upto 150hr in current run.

Unless an easterly
happen in the next couple of weeks,we'd know all about it then.

As above Ian Ferguson,has just commented that Ukmo group think is that the strat warming won't trickle down into medium output for another 10 days.
Ergo what's in the models now and our current weather would be here anyway.

In 10 days time..if you think its hard to forecast now...

pistolpetes11 · 07-01-2013 10:46pm

Look at the blocking in this chart over Greenland and the cold flow over UK/Irleand , pretty good chart , through all the swing and roundabouts 500MB anomaly charts have been very good

814day.03.gif

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 08-01-2013 5:05pm

Finally, something to put here !

Looking more positive within 120 hours now !

BEASTERLY · 08-01-2013 5:09pm

We are now in a position to talk about something interesting in this thread!

IF the 12z GFS is right. Eastern counties could wake up to a dusting on Sunday!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 08-01-2013 5:10pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

We are now in a position to talk about something interesting in this thread! IF the 12z GFS is right. Eastern counties could wake up to a dusting on Sunday!

There seems to be a trend to shoft that low and move things west, this is what we want to see !!

Over to you ECM, don't break our hearts !

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 08-01-2013 5:14pm

UKMO

BEASTERLY · 08-01-2013 5:21pm

Nice!!!!!

patneve2 · 08-01-2013 5:21pm

Yes, the westerly shift of the pattern is very notable when comparing the 12z to the 6z.

naughto · 08-01-2013 5:29pm

i dont really have a clue what iam looking at here

patneve2 · 08-01-2013 5:53pm

F1 is really incoming ice-age type of stuff

BEASTERLY · 08-01-2013 6:26pm

12z GEFS ensembles extremely poor.

Musicman2000 · 08-01-2013 6:29pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

12z GEFS ensembles extremely poor.

They have the look of this mornings ECM 00z run which was very poor for longer term cold prospects, I have a feeling MT could well be right about waiting to early February for anything very cold and snowy.

Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Comments