Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

BEASTERLY

I am worried by the GFS but I dont trust it. It goes against most other model output, fair enough it might be right.

It wants to really power up the vortex with no HLBs anywhere, at 150 hours. 10 days or so after a SSW with sustained warming. The current MJO phase supports Greenland heights as does the forecast vortex position/split. The other models make more sense in this respect. The GFS turns a shortwave by 90 degrees out of the jetstream. The GEFS will be interesting.

ZX7R

Looking at some of the different charts from the different models ,does any body think the cold pool over north America could push east to-wards us and meet up with the cold pool coming from our west,maybe if there was a push from our west it could be colder than we think, what do people think hope i make sense in what i am trying to say

pistolpetes11

ZX7R wrote: »

Looking at some of the different charts from the different models ,does any body think the cold pool over north America could push east to-wards us and meet up with the cold pool coming from our west,maybe if there was a push from our west it could be colder than we think, what do people think hope i make sense in what i am trying to say

would be to modified from the sea track

BEASTERLY

GEFS ens goodish, not much support for the op.

ZX7R

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

would be to modified from the sea track

I was thinking that ,but the temperature anomalies looked to be so cold that i thought that maybe it could hold the cold uppers.
thanks for the reply

BLIZZARD7

Well the NAM 00z is not supporting the GFS outlook at +84hrs and looks a lot more like the ECM upstream.





Dan

Oarrack Bama

Patience grasshopper. Tis coming.

maquiladora

Here comes the important bit.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

Here comes the important bit.

They seem to like it on netweather so far Maq

maquiladora

That bloody shortwave needs to drop southeast now.

Super hoop

Well.where is the important bit....??

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

That bloody shortwave needs to drop southeast now.

It will

maquiladora

At 84 its not.... :mad::mad::mad::mad:

Oarrack Bama

FFS.

Weathering

UGH

maquiladora

Amazing that such a small detail at around 84 hours will end up massively dictating the type of weather we get maybe for weeks ahead.

GFS is solid as a rock with this. It's really hard to see such a good model being wrong at such a short range now. Not looking forward to 0Z UKMO.

Weathering

If the other models are going to go pear shaped I'd like to know asap
All this waiting around is only breeding F-uped sleeping routines all around

Weathering

And look what Piers posted literally a few minutes ago
Piers Corbyn ‏@Piers_Corbyn
RtRtRt-Ty WeatherAction snow chaos special public warning on front page Daily Express http://bit.ly/WutW23 <= WeatherAction ahead of all

He's pretty sure...not that it matters one iota coming from him

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

Amazing that such a small detail at around 84 hours will end up massively dictating the type of weather we get maybe for weeks ahead.

GFS is solid as a rock with this. It's really hard to see such a good model being wrong at such a short range now. Not looking forward to 0Z UKMO.

Its even harder to imagine every other model is wrong though! Shocking performance by the models over the past few days...huge differences at +84 upstream.




Dan

BLIZZARD7

PV reforming and powering up on the GFS- Strat warming having no effect? MJO having no effect? Every other model wrong in normal reliable timeframe? Insanity if the GFS is right.





Dan

BLIZZARD7

THIS IS RIDICULOUS- Brilliant UKMO at +96hrs with no shortwave rubbish...Im thinking this is a major flop by the GFS now.

Or maybe the UKMO is wrong...ahh I dont know anymore




Dan

maquiladora

It's a poor model but the 0Z NOGAPS has moved towards the GFS idea now. GFS is no longer alone.

maquiladora

Huge difference still between UKMO and GFS.

0Z GEM disagrees with GFS now too. Crazy.

No pressure on the 0Z ECM then eh?! :P

BLIZZARD7

Maq have you seen the UKMO??!

Models in complete confusion.

Edit : yes you have lol


Dan

Oarrack Bama

The difference is so stark at 96 hrs between UKMO and GFS that i'm pissed off frankly. I have said all I need to say on net weather.

maquiladora

0Z GEM sinks the shortwave southeast like the UKMO but its struggling to ridge as far north at 120. It hasn't followed the GFS but it has downgraded.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GEM sinks the shortwave southeast like the UKMO but its struggling to ridge as far north at 120. It hasn't followed the GFS but it has downgraded.

True but it is definitley light years ahead of the GFS.


Actually I think its going to be excellent in the next few frames.

Dan

BLIZZARD7

GFS control looks almost identical to op run and the mean is better than both so far.




Dan

maquiladora

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

True but it is definitley light years ahead of the GFS.


Actually I think its going to be excellent in the next few frames.

Dan

Yeah its better than the GFS, just a downgrade from its previous one. Sets up a much weaker ridge instead of a strong Greenland high. The difference from the GFS earlier is still the more important part though.

GEFS mean looks worse to me at 144.

force eleven

Met Eireanns outlook has dropped it's snowy forecast for next week, or at least put it away for now. Only goes to Monday. I'm getting a sinking feeling about this. Cold weekend and 4-7 degrees on Monday. Hmmm.