Recession predictions

Deub wrote: »

I buy Lyxor CAC40 (BX4) which is an ETF inverse X2 linked to the French CAC40. Basically when the CAC40 goes down 1%, the BX4 goes 2% up and vice versa. It helps to limit my exposure of my portfolio when I think the CAC40 may go down.

Is this just betting against yourself?

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

It's a bit like betting on the red and the black at roulette and claiming to be making a profit.

Except when I am saying profit, I mean overall. You increase and decrease the volume of BX4 depending of the situations.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I ll say plenty about it then, tax avoidance is immoral and dangerous, not only are we losing out on much needed revenue, we re facilitating these activities, and preventing other countries from obtaining much needed revenue also, sovereign wealth funds could be used to rectify this. Job creation alone will not solve these issues, large corporations need to start paying more tax.

or pay higher salaries & everybody wins

daheff wrote:

or pay higher salaries & everybody wins

Maybe, but with the current process of wage inflation suppression, what is the chances of that occuring?

Pussyhands wrote:

Might not be as bad but I think it'll certainly be longer.

I do think we could be heading into a period of global stagnation, we have to start dealing with issues such as debt accumulation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7up38Jyv0w&list=PLRgTUN1zz_ofJoMx1rB6Z0EA1OwAGDRdR

This is a good watch - given what it says is true, a recession (or collapse) seems inevitable

Cant time it though, but its close. I feel it in my waters

42% chance of recession by June 2020, in the USA, according to this:

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/06/plain-vanilla-term-spread-model-recession-probability-for-2020m0642

Forgotten I had posted in this - dunno why I unfollowed

This article, reminded me so much of the last one where economists were told to shut up and stop talking us into a crash (which ultimately quickly followed)

At the time of the recent crash and for a few years before I had said to friends the building projects in the country were crazy (house building for a population that didn't exist/couldn't afford it) and only needed even a minor blip in the economy for it to all come crashing down. Was told at the time (by people who would be kinda working in the areas) that not a chance it would happen in Ireland, the country was as secure as it ever could be. As it was it was a major global crash

As others have said the housing market is not likely going to be the reason this time but country/corporate debt.
This time it is more likely to be a EU issue - Germany, Italy etc. Brexit may be the trigger that starts it. How badly it may screw Ireland is not really known but everyone knows it will be major
Deutsche Bank is screwed but will never be allowed to fail by Germany - how much of their money is in Ireland?
Lotta things happening at the moment

Does this sound familiar?

https://amp.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-denies-economy-on-the-cusp-of-overheating-despite-brexit-warnings-937971.html

Deub wrote: »

It doesn't smell good right now:

- US Indexes went ATH and are now going down
- FED decreased the interest rate for the first time since 2008

A little unexpected spark and we could see some correction on the markets.

Listening to the business news on the radio its definitely on the way. The slow dow in German economic growth has started to impact their unemployment figures. Glanbia plans for the performance nutrition side of the hit a road block many countries even non EU they were targeting with these products where demand hasn't developed as hoped. Numerous investment banks taking a look at their core business strategies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Shouldn't the NTMA be cashing in about now refinancing some of our debt?

Interest rates or yields for the government are below 0 right now out to beyond 10 years.

Well arguably we should have been paying down the debt before now, but we are about 5 years out of recession and no progress made.
We are overspending to build a national hospital inside a hospital, in the wrong place.
Spending 3 billion on broadband that Eir claim they can do for 1 billion.

I don't have a lot of faith in this government decisions, at least until the economic situation forces them to change direction.

Geuze wrote: »

The NTMA do re-finance debt, it has been happening all year.

Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

Hopefully we don't miss the boat.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

Hopefully we don't miss the boat.

Bond sales are planned a few weeks/months in advance.

But I'm sure the NTMA will do everything possible to take advantage of low yields.

LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Sweden’s 20-year government bond yield fell below zero for the first time on Friday, taking the country’s entire yield curve negative.

Sweden, where the key central bank interest rate is -0.25%, joins Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands with the whole bond curve yielding less than zero.

The yield on the Swedish 20-year bond, the longest dated maturity in Sweden, fell 4 basis points to -0.004% .

https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-bonds/entire-swedish-yield-curve-now-negative-as-20-yr-bond-yield-falls-below-zero-idUSL8N25C2QW

Nice club to be in! We have only one more planned for Q3 Geuze? What's the thoughts on this yield being available to Ireland in Q3 and Q4?
Is Brexit uncertainty impacting our future bond sales..

Gerald Celente and Nouriel Roubini both came out with some dire forecasts in the last few days, what we are going to witness in the next few months will make the GFC of 2008 and 1929 look like a cakewalk. Ireland will be particularly decimated is my own prediction. Forecasts range from a harsh recession at best to World War Three at worst.

China and the US are stuck in a Thucydides trap and will edge towards war in my opinion. The global economy needs a hard reset button and with catastrophic environmental challenges, demographic crisis in Europe and a migration crisis then we will see economies and nation states crash. China is going through massive internal pressures now like never before seen and it remains to be seen if the Communist Party can retain control, the easiest option will be to go to war against its outside aggressor enemy. Trump may need such an event to unify the states behind him also for 2020 or simply suspend elections and declare martial law in a time of Emergency.

Europe will turn to the far-Right in this time of calamity, In Ireland as the economy crashes and there is no safety valve of immigration then we will see a resurgent conflict in Northern Ireland and this is already starting right now before a hard border is even implemented.

The next 12 months will unparalleled in peoples lives world wide. Sorry for being so negative and pessimistic but I feel there is a buildup towards this for years and I hope I am wrong.