Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021

igCorcaigh · 28-01-2021 1:41pm

I always jump on this thread in excitement when it gets bumped.

What time are we taking about in the South?

lolie · 28-01-2021 11:49pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I always jump on this thread in excitement when it gets bumped.

What time are we taking about in the South?

Nothing much on Met Éireann's forecast apart from some windy wet weather in the South tonight.
Unfortunately it wouldn't be the first time Estofex have issued a warning for ireland and nothing to come of it.
No sparks out there atm
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Meteorite58 · 29-01-2021 12:04am

The best I can see is the SW for the next few hours as the front goes through associated with that advancing area of LP.

Weak CAPE readings though if the shear is somewhat strong and lapse rates are decent, no guarantee though but maybe with a bit of Orographic lift ? In all quite weak looking perhaps .

Rougies · 29-01-2021 1:13am

lolie wrote: »

Unfortunately it wouldn't be the first time Estofex have issued a warning for ireland and nothing to come of it.

And they often miss/ignore fairly significant events in Ireland too. I've found www.convectiveweather.co.uk to be much more accurate with their forecasts for Ireland. The past few "events" I've compared their forecast maps to sferic detection maps the next day and they were insanely accurate.

redsteveireland · 10-02-2021 6:07pm

I feel like I have been cheating on this thread spending so much time with the snow chasers.
A friend sent me this picture of a suspected funnel cloud on Monday, taken in the vicinity of Corandulla Galway.

Dank Janniels · 16-02-2021 7:13am

Flash of lightning and thunder in east Galway afew min ago

zell12 · 19-02-2021 12:49pm

thunderstorms due this afternoon in the west?
No mention on Met.ie though

Wanderer78 · 19-02-2021 3:16pm

zell12 wrote:

thunderstorms due this afternoon in the west? No mention on Met.ie though

Says who?

zell12 · 19-02-2021 5:22pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Says who?

Wanderer78 · 19-02-2021 7:13pm

zell12 wrote: »

suspect they were wrong?

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2021 12:55am

Would say slight risk of thunderstorm development Saturday 1500h-1900h in the midlands to central Leinster and inland southeast, as a well-defined cold front develops, may have minor squall line development.

Meteorite58 · 20-02-2021 1:38am

Latest ECM 18Z showing a pathway from the SW up along the Western side of the country as possibly producing some thunderstorms. Lot of shear available, decent lapse rates, upper cold pool, looks squally all right with some big gusty convective downpours.

SlowBlowin · 20-02-2021 10:23am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest ECM 18Z showing a pathway from the SW up along the Western side of the country as possibly producing some thunderstorms. Lot of shear available, decent lapse rates, upper cold pool, looks squally all right with some big gusty convective downpours.

Do you think that the risk is on the same timescales as suggested by M.T. Cranium earlier, just wondering when to unplug ?

Meteorite58 · 20-02-2021 12:04pm

Do you think that the risk is on the same timescales as suggested by M.T. Cranium earlier, just wondering when to unplug ?

Will be watching from early afternoon, probably more a chance say from North Kerry up through Limerick, midlands, N or NE. Not huge MUCAPE but some bit of a possibility, yeah around the same timescale.

Some straight wind like features showing up on the models for the afternoon, could be very wet and gusty during their passage.

Meteorite58 · 20-02-2021 12:26pm

Might be a chance ( low ) of a few isolated thunderstorms showers along the Atlantic Seaboard counties overnight.

highdef · 20-02-2021 7:08pm

Impressive looking squall line passing through Ulster at the moment.

Meteorite58 · 20-02-2021 7:13pm

highdef wrote: »

Impressive looking squall line passing through Ulster at the moment.

Looks like some intense rainfall .

No sferics showing up so far today.

Meteorite58 · 20-02-2021 7:22pm

That feature producing sferics now.

Xenji · 23-02-2021 8:32pm

A few flashes of lightning just outside Ballintubber on way way back from work about 15 minutes ago.

DOCARCH · 23-02-2021 8:37pm

Xenji wrote: »

A few flashes of lightning just outside Ballintubber on way way back from work about 15 minutes ago.

Just off the Mayo coast by the looks of it.

Oscar Bravo · 23-02-2021 9:52pm

Was outside there for about 10 minutes , plenty of white flashes up towards Belmullet.

Meteorite58 · 08-03-2021 9:41pm

Convective set up going into Thurs as we enter an unstable air flow with cold air aloft. Ok shear in lower levels and increasing in upper levels during the day, modest CAPE and decent enough lapse rates .Wintry showers of sleet rain with hail with thunderstorms possible. Some big blustery showers on Thurs but bright spells also.

Meteorite58 · 10-03-2021 10:22pm

Would think there is a fair chance of some convective / hail and thunderstorm activity tomorrow with the passage of troughs. Chance of squally gusty showers.

redsteveireland · 11-03-2021 11:33am

Wonderful prolonged hail shower in Galway city, I have a large sky light with metal cladding in the office so the sound is amazing!

DOCARCH · 11-03-2021 3:39pm

Recent strike in the Wicklow Mountains.

Meteorite58 · 11-03-2021 4:42pm

Blustery here in Kerry but good bright spells. Had sleet and a good few hail showers, very heavy hail showers overnight waking us a couple of times.

Good few well scattered sferics showing up today.