Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

beauf · 17-09-2020 9:37pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

If rents became significantly cheaper, in fact cheaper than paying a mortgage on average, would it be likely that people wouldn't bother buying houses or what impact on demand for housing would it have? Has there been a time before where rents were lower than mortgages?

Yes. I think it was early 90s maybe earlier. I remember it. Just not exactly when.

It's wasn't the hot potato it had been for the last few decades.

brisan · 17-09-2020 9:44pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

If rents became significantly cheaper, in fact cheaper than paying a mortgage on average, would it be likely that people wouldn't bother buying houses or what impact on demand for housing would it have? Has there been a time before where rents were lower than mortgages?

Back when mortgage rates were 16% in the 80s I would guess rents were cheaper than mortgages

Assetbacked · 17-09-2020 11:13pm

I think I may have found some data showing in Q3 2006 rents were around 20% lower than the cost of mortgages. From the attached extract from a paper by the National Competitiveness Council.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

As part of this research, I noticed something in the Wikipedia page on the Irish property bubble;
"By March 2006 most economists thought that property prices were unsustainable because rental yields had fallen below the risk free rate of over 3.5% offered by Government bonds".

Currently Irish gov bonds are being offered at around 0.1% but with so many new builds/newly renovated institutional investor properties on the market sitting vacant, many for a couple years, arguably they are yielding below government bonds. Is this data pointing to the roller-coaster being at the very top of the climb and trickling towards the drop, on the basis that demand is more than likely going to be muted for at least another 6 months?

brisan · 17-09-2020 11:33pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I think I may have found some data showing in Q3 2006 rents were around 20% lower than the cost of mortgages. From the attached extract from a paper by the National Competitiveness Council.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

As part of this research, I noticed something in the Wikipedia page on the Irish property bubble;
"By March 2006 most economists thought that property prices were unsustainable because rental yields had fallen below the risk free rate of over 3.5% offered by Government bonds".

Currently Irish gov bonds are being offered at around 0.1% but with so many new builds/newly renovated institutional investor properties on the market sitting vacant, many for a couple years, arguably they are yielding below government bonds. Is this data pointing to the roller-coaster being at the very top of the climb and trickling towards the drop, on the basis that demand is more than likely going to be muted for at least another 6 months?

Properties lying empty return a negative yield due to property tax and insurance and maintenance costs
Apartments even more so with management fees

Assetbacked · 17-09-2020 11:35pm

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-bodies-playing-role-in-squeezing-dublin-housing-market-1.4356642?mode=amp

"State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market
Groups other than households bought almost half new homes in capital in last year"

This is crazy and is exactly the type of action that adds fuel to the fire and lends credence to the belief that the market is being artificially propped up.

beauf · 17-09-2020 11:49pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-bodies-playing-role-in-squeezing-dublin-housing-market-1.4356642?mode=amp

"State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market
Groups other than households bought almost half new homes in capital in last year"

This is crazy and is exactly the type of action that adds fuel to the fire and lends credence to the belief that the market is being artificially propped up.

I thought they were buying up housing for social housing, because no one was building any. The govt failed dysmally to improve the supply. As a result they are having to buy expensive housing to use as social housing often in prime, premium even, locations.

The real damage was done prioritizing investment and recapitalisation over basic housing.

The local authorities buying property is a side show in comparison.

beauf · 17-09-2020 11:51pm

brisan wrote: »

Properties lying empty return a negative yield due to property tax and insurance and maintenance costs
Apartments even more so with management fees

Any stats about vacant properties over the last twenty years. Be interesting to see that, and the breakdown of where and of what type.

beauf · 17-09-2020 11:54pm

beauf wrote: »

I ...

The local authorities buying property is a side show in comparison.

Unless you're bidding against them obviously.

I thought recent stats show the majority of recent buyers are owner occupiers and the majority are first time buyers. I could be wrong, my memory is a little fuzzy on it.

Hubertj · 18-09-2020 6:51am

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-bodies-playing-role-in-squeezing-dublin-housing-market-1.4356642?mode=amp

"State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market
Groups other than households bought almost half new homes in capital in last year"

This is crazy and is exactly the type of action that adds fuel to the fire and lends credence to the belief that the market is being artificially propped up.

Terrible first time buyers were prevented from buying, provided they could afford at the prices offered.

brisan · 18-09-2020 7:53am

beauf wrote: »

Any stats about vacant properties over the last twenty years. Be interesting to see that, and the breakdown of where and of what type.

No idea where one would find that data
I do know from posters on here that quite a high percentage of the higher end apt’s owned by REITS are empty and landlords on here are saying it’s better to leave an apartment empty rather than reduce rent due to RPZ regulations

The_Conductor · 18-09-2020 8:03am

brisan wrote: »

No idea where one would find that data
I do know from posters on here that quite a high percentage of the higher end apt’s owned by REITS are empty and landlords on here are saying it’s better to leave an apartment empty rather than reduce rent due to RPZ regulations

Its a combination of RPZ regulations- and the manner in which many of the high end units are owned by pension funds and REITs. If one of these types of landlords reduces the rent- they have to discount the forward revenue stream from the unit- and book a 'loss' (a capital depreciation) that they may have to make good- whereas if they leave it vacant- they can simply book a lower cash-flow, without having to tinker with book valuations and forward income projections etc.

Its particularly bad for pension funds who are legally obliged to make a periodic FRS17 declaration enumerating their assets and future liabilities and their income streams.

If RPZ was not there- it would make sense to let the units for whatever they could get- as there would be no need to discount future revenue projections.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

JimmyVik · 18-09-2020 8:40am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a combination of RPZ regulations- and the manner in which many of the high end units are owned by pension funds and REITs. If one of these types of landlords reduces the rent- they have to discount the forward revenue stream from the unit- and book a 'loss' (a capital depreciation) that they may have to make good- whereas if they leave it vacant- they can simply book a lower cash-flow, without having to tinker with book valuations and forward income projections etc.

Its particularly bad for pension funds who are legally obliged to make a periodic FRS17 declaration enumerating their assets and future liabilities and their income streams.

If RPZ was not there- it would make to let the units for whatever they could get- as there would be no need to discount future revenue projections.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

At this stage if they got rid of the RPZ I would be thinkiing thats only temporary and underneath there is a plan to bring them back as soon as possible. Wouldnt trust anything the govt do for investors im afraid.

Assetbacked · 18-09-2020 10:54am

Not a reduction in rent post, but a nifty streetview type tour of the Quayside Quarter gym and residents lounge; https://my.matterport.com/show/?m=N7jWy9UWMRW

Very slick looking, unfortunately 1 beds start from 2430 and what remains of the 2 beds starts from 2900!

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/north-wall-quay-dublin-1-dublin-162471/

Smouse156 · 18-09-2020 11:06am

Assetbacked wrote: »

Not a reduction in rent post, but a nifty streetview type tour of the Quayside Quarter communal areas; https://my.matterport.com/show/?m=N7jWy9UWMRW

Very slick looking, unfortunately 1 beds start from 2430 and what remains of the 2 beds starts from 2900!

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/north-wall-quay-dublin-1-dublin-162471/

These must be nearly empty at this stage but the accounting trick means they can “pretend” there is no write down in book value as long as one or two pay the rents.

The RPZ’s really effecting rents. Best to let landlord drop rents and increase them in future up to the last long term rental price: if apartment was renting for 2k a month (for at least 9 months) and landlord reduced it to 1600 to get a tenant then he should be allowed to increase it back to the 2k rather than 4% annually.

Once back at 2k then it goes to 4% increases.

This would put further pressure on the REITS as most of their apartments in the expensive developments (Capital Dock, Quayside Quarter etc) have never rented and couldn’t not be brought back up to a fantasy asking price. However, their competition (John & Mary) would benefit from the increased flexibility and take the remaining few tenants they have.

rightmove · 18-09-2020 11:23am

Smouse156 wrote: »

These must be nearly empty at this stage but the accounting trick means they can “pretend” there is no write down in book value as long as one or two pay the rents.

The RPZ’s really effecting rents. Best to let landlord drop rents and increase them in future up to the last long term rental price: if apartment was renting for 2k a month (for at least 9 months) and landlord reduced it to 1600 to get a tenant then he should be allowed to increase it back to the 2k rather than 4% annually.

Once back at 2k then it goes to 4% increases.

This would put further pressure on the REITS as most of their apartments in the expensive developments (Capital Dock, Quayside Quarter etc) have never rented and couldn’t not be brought back up to a fantasy asking price. However, their competition (John & Mary) would benefit from the increased flexibility and take the remaining few tenants they have.

really interesting. Kinda like buying something at argos where they tell you what it was previously on sale for or what the lowest price was on the item?

So in your suggestion would go something like
apt1 - previous max rent jan 2020 2k per month
apt1 - current rent 1k per month (decrease allowed)
the inference being that if it hits 2k ever again it can only increase by 4%?

its a good idea but i think if we looked at it we should use the chance to remove the rpz's but your suggestion might work with a bias and ignorant media

cgcsb · 18-09-2020 11:43am

Assetbacked wrote: »

Not a reduction in rent post, but a nifty streetview type tour of the Quayside Quarter gym and residents lounge; https://my.matterport.com/show/?m=N7jWy9UWMRW

Very slick looking, unfortunately 1 beds start from 2430 and what remains of the 2 beds starts from 2900!

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/north-wall-quay-dublin-1-dublin-162471/

I'm curious how long the institutional investors will hold out. Surely they need to come up with some actual money eventually, accounting tricks only go so far.

I assume there's communication (i.e. a cartel) between them to the effect that they'll stick together and keep prices high. It'll only take one of them to blink to cause a cascade though. If those places take a tumble in value then John and Mary may just sell up.

polaco · 18-09-2020 11:44am

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/3-bedroom-house-occu-scholarstown-scholarstown-road-rathfarnham-dublin-2044234/

Most of those houses already gone starting price is 2550.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/type-b-whitepines-south-stocking-avenue-rathfarnham-dublin-2050617/

Those are slowly getting more tenants as well

I was expecting both estates are going to be empty for while but it doesn't look like Covid has change much in demand

cgcsb · 18-09-2020 11:49am

polaco wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/3-bedroom-house-occu-scholarstown-scholarstown-road-rathfarnham-dublin-2044234/

Most of those houses already gone starting price is 2550.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/type-b-whitepines-south-stocking-avenue-rathfarnham-dublin-2050617/

Those are slowly getting more tenants as well

I was expecting both estates are going to be empty for while but it doesn't look like Covid has change much in demand

These are large 3 bed 2 bath houses though. The real over inflated prices are the one bed flats for the same price.

brisan · 18-09-2020 11:54am

polaco wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/3-bedroom-house-occu-scholarstown-scholarstown-road-rathfarnham-dublin-2044234/

Most of those houses already gone starting price is 2550.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/type-b-whitepines-south-stocking-avenue-rathfarnham-dublin-2050617/

Those are slowly getting more tenants as well

I was expecting both estates are going to be empty for while but it doesn't look like Covid has change much in demand

That’s good value in the current market
There again so is this

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/22066307

Smouse156 · 18-09-2020 12:13pm

rightmove wrote: »

really interesting. Kinda like buying something at argos where they tell you what it was previously on sale for or what the lowest price was on the item?

So in your suggestion would go something like
apt1 - previous max rent jan 2020 2k per month
apt1 - current rent 1k per month (decrease allowed)
the inference being that if it hits 2k ever again it can only increase by 4%?

its a good idea but i think if we looked at it we should use the chance to remove the rpz's but your suggestion might work with a bias and ignorant media

It’s a good idea! The Govt/media will not allow a removal of the RPZ so even discussing that is pointless.

Renters benefit from a depressed market even if temporarily.

Landlords currently getting zero for their empty properties and are scared to lower rents as it might effect sales prices could drop large percentages and rise them by large percentages when demand picks up.

It benefits everybody bar the REITs who have never rented their empty properties.

Assetbacked · 18-09-2020 1:06pm

brisan wrote: »

That’s good value in the current market
There again so is this

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/22066307

Then you still have kips like this https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-7/valentia-parade-dublin-7-dublin-2059902/

It was first listed on 13 August for 1800, dropped to 1600 on 22 August an is still advertisted. Barely worth 800 going on those photos.

I was half looking today and remember posting this place a while ago to show price drops. It is, from what I can see, a nice house with a good price relative to the area and proximity to the city centre. Price has been dropped by 750 in total from 2500 to 1750 since 25 June.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/clontarf/5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-dublin-2044077/

brisan · 18-09-2020 1:35pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Then you still have kips like this https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-7/valentia-parade-dublin-7-dublin-2059902/

It was first listed on 13 August for 1800, dropped to 1600 on 22 August an is still advertisted. Barely worth 800 going on those photos.

I was half looking today and remember posting this place a while ago to show price drops. It is, from what I can see, a nice house with a good price relative to the area and proximity to the city centre. Price has been dropped by 750 in total from 2500 to 1750 since 25 June.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/clontarf/5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-dublin-2044077/

I know the square well
Right beside the coast and Clontarf village
Transport is a major issue in the area
Coast road constantly busy and it’s a bit of a hike to the dart
Good cycleways though
I’d like to live in the area

brisan · 18-09-2020 1:35pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Then you still have kips like this https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-7/valentia-parade-dublin-7-dublin-2059902/

It was first listed on 13 August for 1800, dropped to 1600 on 22 August an is still advertisted. Barely worth 800 going on those photos.

I was half looking today and remember posting this place a while ago to show price drops. It is, from what I can see, a nice house with a good price relative to the area and proximity to the city centre. Price has been dropped by 750 in total from 2500 to 1750 since 25 June.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/clontarf/5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-dublin-2044077/

But lads are saying rents are not dropping

Beigepaint · 18-09-2020 2:06pm

brisan wrote: »

But lads are saying rents are not dropping

Even if they are, they’re not.

Reminds me of the Narcissist’s Prayer.

Ozark707 · 18-09-2020 2:47pm

polaco wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/3-bedroom-house-occu-scholarstown-scholarstown-road-rathfarnham-dublin-2044234/

Most of those houses already gone starting price is 2550.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathfarnham/type-b-whitepines-south-stocking-avenue-rathfarnham-dublin-2050617/

Those are slowly getting more tenants as well

I was expecting both estates are going to be empty for while but it doesn't look like Covid has change much in demand

If you were previously paying close on 2.5k for a 2 bed this represents much better value. Good to see more places coming on the market. Wonder were they able to negotiate a reduction in price.

Assetbacked · 18-09-2020 3:02pm

brisan wrote: »

I know the square well
Right beside the coast and Clontarf village
Transport is a major issue in the area
Coast road constantly busy and it’s a bit of a hike to the dart
Good cycleways though
I’d like to live in the area

To you is there anything you could think of that might work against the property/square other than the road transport issues? E.G. anti-social behaviour in the square.

Assetbacked · 18-09-2020 3:09pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

If you were previously paying close on 2.5k for a 2 bed this represents much better value. Good to see more places coming on the market. Wonder were they able to negotiate a reduction in price.

Similarly, seeing really nice new builds/newly renovated with the full amenities, high spec fittings etc offering two beds for 2300 starts to put downward preessure on those Celtic Tiger era Sandyford and Grand Canal / Spencer Dock 2 beds for €2k+.

These are two developments which are pretty accessible to the city centre/Docklands, certainly by bike (15/20 mins);

Mount Argus, Harold's Cross 2 beds from 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-161860/

Clancy Quay 2300+ for 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/two-bedroom-apartment-clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-dublin-2046047/

By comparison, these places look like poor value;

Gallery Quay, GCD 2400 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/gallery-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2017016/

Pembroke Square (beside Google) 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/pembroke-square-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2076113/

brisan · 18-09-2020 6:02pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

To you is there anything you could think of that might work against the property/square other than the road transport issues? E.G. anti-social behaviour in the square.

No its an exceptionally quiet square
A lot of older couples with a few houses converted into 2 apts (one upstairs one downstairs)
Car parking is on the street and you are not allowed park in the centre area so parking can be a bit scarce
But for a rental its a great area if the transport options work for you
Pub Supermarket (pricey) restaurants post office ,etc on your door
10 min walk to St Annes park and a 2 minute walk to the seafront
You could walk to the IFSC or the eastpoint on a nice day

Hubertj · 18-09-2020 7:22pm

brisan wrote: »

No its an exceptionally quiet square
A lot of older couples with a few houses converted into 2 apts (one upstairs one downstairs)
Car parking is on the street and you are not allowed park in the centre area so parking can be a bit scarce
But for a rental its a great area if the transport options work for you
Pub Supermarket (pricey) restaurants post office ,etc on your door
10 min walk to St Annes park and a 2 minute walk to the seafront
You could walk to the IFSC or the eastpoint on a nice day

Do they have gardens or terraces put back? I don’t think the ad showed any outdoor spaces?

brisan · 18-09-2020 7:28pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Do they have gardens or terraces put back? I don’t think the ad showed any outdoor spaces?

I have only been in one and it had a small courtyard
Most have been extended over the years
I seen one on DAFT with a small garden ,most are courtyards though
in the fifth picture in that ad you can see a small courtyard
Down to 1690 as and from today

Hubertj · 18-09-2020 8:08pm

brisan wrote: »

I have only been in one and it had a small courtyard
Most have been extended over the years
I seen one on DAFT with a small garden ,most are courtyards though
in the fifth picture in that ad you can see a small courtyard
Down to 1690 as and from today

Ah see it now thank you. Seems strange, nice area, place looks pretty nice. Price. Sounds good for a 2 bed house in a nice are. You could move from a €2k ish 2 bed apartment to a 2 bed house and save €300 a month.

brisan · 18-09-2020 8:11pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Ah see it now thank you. Seems strange, nice area, place looks pretty nice. Price. Sounds good for a 2 bed house in a nice are. You could move from a €2k ish 2 bed apartment to a 2 bed house and save €300 a month.

Realistic landlord or one with a pressing need to pay the mortgage

Ozark707 · 18-09-2020 8:44pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Similarly, seeing really nice new builds/newly renovated with the full amenities, high spec fittings etc offering two beds for 2300 starts to put downward preessure on those Celtic Tiger era Sandyford and Grand Canal / Spencer Dock 2 beds for €2k+.

These are two developments which are pretty accessible to the city centre/Docklands, certainly by bike (15/20 mins);

Mount Argus, Harold's Cross 2 beds from 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-161860/

Clancy Quay 2300+ for 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/two-bedroom-apartment-clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-dublin-2046047/

By comparison, these places look like poor value;

Gallery Quay, GCD 2400 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/gallery-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2017016/

Pembroke Square (beside Google) 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/pembroke-square-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2076113/

It looks like we are moving towards 2K for a high spec 2 bed in a nice part of Dublin. I think the Clancy Quay ones for 2.3k might be a push. I think those Mt Argus ones have been on for months now so I am assuming they are too pricey as well.

I know of a recent let in the docklands of a nice place (with parking) for 2.1k.

Ozark707 · 20-09-2020 8:08am

I know this is London based but still interesting to see the state of the rental market now over there.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/20/private-rents-plunge-covid-19-decimates-lettings-market-workplace-space-gardens

Assetbacked · 20-09-2020 8:59am

Ozark707 wrote: »

I know this is London based but still interesting to see the state of the rental market now over there.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/20/private-rents-plunge-covid-19-decimates-lettings-market-workplace-space-gardens

FT also had an opinion article yesterday on it; https://www.ft.com/content/e8af0787-7616-4a6b-8bc7-20b14327f3bf

Some points from the article;

- When demand falls, prices do not follow in lockstep, since most sellers simply sit on their hands rather than offer their property to the market at a discount. Even some distressed sellers can be granted a stay of execution when mortgage lenders choose forbearance over repossession. As a result, a downturn in sentiment is far more likely to be expressed initially as a drop in transaction activity, rather than prices.

- In London there is a close correlation between rental growth, and migration and jobs growth.

- House prices in London are rising — but rents have dropped in the past 12 months. Its rental index for the capital shows a fall of 2.7 per cent in the year to the end of July, a decline that is likely to grow to 5 per cent by the end of the year.

- At first glance, tourism should not affect the rents charged in the conventional market for long lets. But as travel ground to a near halt in the pandemic, landlords of Airbnb-style short-term rental properties have switched to offering longer residential leases, bringing significant supply to the mainstream market and thereby putting downward pressure on rents.

- As long as economic trends continue to feed directly into rent levels, tenants in the capital can expect a note of relief, at least, on their strained finances.

It's also worth noting that the UK has an eviction ban until the end of October and ours is the end of this year so this will obviously have an impact too on the rental market, though who knows how significant. Of course, it doesn't mean it is easy after that to kick out tenants so supply won't dramatically increase overnight. But even if tenants cannot be kicked out easily, other landlords might be eager to take on good tenants and therefore be open to compromising on the rent they will accept.

Edgware · 20-09-2020 1:49pm

There are several developments all over Dublin coming to completion by early 2021 and plenty more on the plans with the build to lets schemes. Just recently read of a 628 apartment development applied for five minutes from Dundrum, Dublin.
Increased availability has to impact on rents. There is a good supply south of the Grand Canal at the moment with some reduction in rents, though not that big a decrease.
However with the slow down in the return of students and increased work from homes landlords will be waiting longer to let. Then they will have to decide to be more competitive in their rents or leave the property empty

20-09-2020 2:38pm

Edgware wrote: »

There are several developments all over Dublin coming to completion by early 2021 and plenty more on the plans with the build to lets schemes. Just recently read of a 628 apartment development applied for five minutes from Dundrum, Dublin.
Increased availability has to impact on rents. There is a good supply south of the Grand Canal at the moment with some reduction in rents, though not that big a decrease.
However with the slow down in the return of students and increased work from homes landlords will be waiting longer to let. Then they will have to decide to be more competitive in their rents or leave the property empty

Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.

Ozark707 · 20-09-2020 3:22pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.

I am guessing a new development would take a minimum of 18 months from when they start to until when they are ready to take tenants? If developers decide to sit on them now it is a good indication they are not expecting any return to pre-covid rent levels in the short to medium term.

Claw Hammer · 20-09-2020 4:03pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am guessing a new development would take a minimum of 18 months from when they start to until when they are ready to take tenants? If developers decide to sit on them now it is a good indication they are not expecting any return to pre-covid rent levels in the short to medium term.

Currently new developments of all kinds are not breaking ground. Nobody knows if billing will have to stop due to Covid or if sites will have restrictions imposed or if supplies of building materials will be interrupted. That is outside of any consideration of the economic environment when the building is actually complete.

Edgware · 20-09-2020 4:53pm

There are certainly developments in the pipeline where the developer is holding back but there are a lot coming to completion. Will they be sold in one go to a REIT though?

Claw Hammer · 20-09-2020 4:58pm

Edgware wrote: »

There are certainly developments in the pipeline where the developer is holding back but there are a lot coming to completion. Will they be sold in one go to a REIT though?

If they are already coming to completion they are presold. The REIT will have provided financing throughout.

Donald Trump · 20-09-2020 6:25pm

beauf wrote: »

Sherry FitzGerald said investors are continuing to withdraw from the market. About 32 per cent of all sellers in the first six months of 2020 were selling investment properties while just 12 per cent of purchasers were investors. If this continues throughout the year, the agent said, it would represent the lowest proportion of investors entering the market since 2012.

Falling rents, falling values, (according to Boards), no timely way of recovering property. Most entering the market are owner occupiers.

32% of sellers and 12% of purchasers is likely not the same as 32% of units sold and 12% of units bought by investors.

JimmyVik · 21-09-2020 8:13am

Dav010 wrote: »

Rent associated with planned new developments will depend to a large extent on whether they are built, if there is oversupply builders will wait, and also whether they are forward financed by an institutional buyer who may leave them empty until rents meet a certain price threshold, which is what is currently happening in some singely owned developments.

There is a site opposite me with about 20 houses and one about 1 km down the road with about 50 houses. None have been touched since March.

In fact a couple of weeks ago the builders came in with trucks and were taking stuff out of the houses and loading them onto trucks.
My mother phones the cops. Thought they were robbing the site, but it was the builders.

Claw Hammer · 21-09-2020 10:29am

Donald Trump wrote: »

32% of sellers and 12% of purchasers is likely not the same as 32% of units sold and 12% of units bought by investors.

How so?

johnnyskeleton · 21-09-2020 10:39am

Claw Hammer wrote: »

How so?

If 100 people sell 100 properties, i.e. 1 property each, and 32 of them are investors, 32% of investors AND 32% of properties, are sold by investors.

If 100 people buy 125 properties, 88 of them are not investors and buy 1 property each, and 12 are investors and buy 3 properties each, then 12% of them are investors, but ~30% of the properties are bought by investors

Claw Hammer · 21-09-2020 10:52am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If 100 people sell 100 properties, i.e. 1 property each, and 32 of them are investors, 32% of investors AND 32% of properties, are sold by investors.

If 100 people buy 125 properties, 88 of them are not investors and buy 1 property each, and 12 are investors and buy 3 properties each, then 12% of them are investors, but ~30% of the properties are bought by investors

What is the basis for saying that is a likely interpretation of Sherry Fitzgerald's comment?

Browney7 · 21-09-2020 11:07am

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What is the basis for saying that is a likely interpretation of Sherry Fitzgerald's comment?

It's more a look at what Sherry Fitzgerald may or may not be saying with the stats they are quoting and how people interpret these.

Claw Hammer · 21-09-2020 2:12pm

Browney7 wrote: »

It's more a look at what Sherry Fitzgerald may or may not be saying with the stats they are quoting and how people interpret these.

Yes, but where is the issue of likelihood coming from?

rocketspocket · 21-09-2020 3:55pm

landlord (institutional) just increased my rent by 4% (in a pressure zone) - they have 100s of empty apartments to fill yet felt that putting the price up for long term tenants is good business. handed in my notice to vacate..

Smouse156 · 21-09-2020 4:21pm

rocketspocket wrote: »

landlord (institutional) just increased my rent by 4% (in a pressure zone) - they have 100s of empty apartments to fill yet felt that putting the price up for long term tenants is good business. handed in my notice to vacate..

The neck of them is amazing! A total rental market collapse is on the cards especially given the rise in the virus and they try this. I’d go back and offer 10-20% below what you were previously paying. Let’s us know if they come back with some counter offer please

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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