US Presidential Election 2020

MJohnston · 29-10-2020 2:39pm

seamus wrote: »

As much as it's clear that the democratic process in the US is decidedly not democratic, if the mail-in process results in a considerable jump in votes then there's a good model for other countries to consider following, to try and increase engagment in the system.

We cope just fine in Ireland without substantial mail-in or early voting. And think of how much more complex our PR-STV ballots can be compared to theirs!

Practically every problem with voting in the US is derived from current or historical voter suppression. Think of all the bizarre things that they have to do like have a verified signature on their ballot, or bring overly restricted forms of ID along. It just adds more and more time to the voting process (and that's the goal of Republicans, to be clear).

Maybe America's angry and aggressive partisanship results in additional electoral fraud, but there's not much evidence of it in any state.

One thing we should borrow here, which certain US states have started adopting recently, is automatic voter registration. I wouldn't go as far as mandatory voting, although I'd be receptive to an argument for it, but we shouldn't make it so hard to register to vote here.

Water John · 29-10-2020 2:55pm

Almost the total number who voted in 2016 have already voted in 2020 in Texas.

BonnieSituation · 29-10-2020 3:02pm

Shelga wrote: »

Anyone else just have no faith in the American people to do the right thing anymore?

Also I think many people will lie to pollsters, and intend to vote for Trump.

The economic numbers just released have given me pause for thought.

Manic Moran · 29-10-2020 3:21pm

looksee wrote: »

Amy Coney Barratt has recused herself from the Pennsylvania vote on the grounds that she has not had time to read up the arguments. The Supreme Court has declined to revisit as a fast-track the lower court's decision to allow 3 days after polling day to count votes. Is there hope, or should one be cynical?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-won-t-immediately-consider-whether-pa-can-count-n1245175

As I understand it, Barrett's participation may be unlikely to make a difference anyway. The swing vote on this topic seems to be Roberts, and he's apparently making his decisions on the basis of whether or not it is appropriate for federal courts to get involved in this sort of state-level voting processes. There were two cases which got up there recently about mail-in-ballot deadlines, one was Pennsylvania, the other Wisconsin. He joined with the liberal wing in the Pennsylvania case (5-3) as he believed the federal court below was wrong as a matter of process to reverse the State court. He joined with the conservative wing in the Wisconsin case as that came up through the State court system.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-wisconsin-elections-us-supreme-court-dcf1e115d0804e203ef2cf9887cfabff

Quin_Dub · 29-10-2020 3:31pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

As I understand it, Barrett's participation may be unlikely to make a difference anyway. The swing vote on this topic seems to be Roberts, and he's apparently making his decisions on the basis of whether or not it is appropriate for federal courts to get involved in this sort of state-level voting processes. There were two cases which got up there recently about mail-in-ballot deadlines, one was Pennsylvania, the other Wisconsin. He joined with the liberal wing in the Pennsylvania case (5-3) as he believed the federal court below was wrong as a matter of process to reverse the State court. He joined with the conservative wing in the Wisconsin case as that came up through the State court system.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-wisconsin-elections-us-supreme-court-dcf1e115d0804e203ef2cf9887cfabff

Indeed - looking at the various decision thus far around voting , it seems they are clearly following a guideline that says if the decision was taken solely at the State level , they are getting involved , but if there was a federal involvement they are open to over-ruling it.

spacecoyote · 29-10-2020 4:14pm

Broadly speaking it just seems nuts with these cases in the courts. For a country that claims to be the greatest ever democracy, a not insignificant portion of the country seem to think that not everyone's vote should count in said greatest democracy.

To be honest, its pretty embarrassing and pathetic really, and the fact that the supreme court of the land is happy to work around the constitution, to prevent or limit the count of votes, in a time of unprecedented circumstances, says everything that is wrong with the country and the system. There is no reason why they couldn't give a few days to ensure every vote is counted, by my understanding the president isn't officially declared until the states declare their EC votes, which is a couple of weeks after the election (could be wrong on my timings there)

I mean, even late night comedians appear to be doing more to help people to vote, each creating their own sites which give people guides on how to vote in their different states. I know that they lean pretty heavily anti-Trump, but that's beside the point, their message is...GET OUT AND VOTE across the board.

Water John · 29-10-2020 4:21pm

Could be corrected but I think States have until the 8th Dec to nominate their EC voters. See HC hopes to be one for New York.

Quin_Dub · 29-10-2020 5:38pm

Water John wrote: »

Could be corrected but I think States have until the 8th Dec to nominate their EC voters. See HC hopes to be one for New York.

I think it's 41 days from the day of the Election so that sounds about right.

Clinton is an Electoral College voter and so will almost certainly be casting her vote for Biden in January when the official vote takes place.

Manic Moran · 29-10-2020 5:44pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - looking at the various decision thus far around voting , it seems they are clearly following a guideline that says if the decision was taken solely at the State level , they are getting involved , but if there was a federal involvement they are open to over-ruling it.

I think you have it reversed. If it's a purely state-level issue, he would rather the federal courts leave the state rulings alone (Unless you missed a "not" in there). It's a position I wish more politicians and judges had.

Quin_Dub · 29-10-2020 5:53pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - looking at the various decision thus far around voting , it seems they are clearly following a guideline that says if the decision was taken solely at the State level , they are getting involved , but if there was a federal involvement they are open to over-ruling it.

Manic Moran wrote: »

I think you have it reversed. If it's a purely state-level issue, he would rather the federal courts leave the state rulings alone (Unless you missed a "not" in there). It's a position I wish more politicians and judges had.

Indeed - Typo on my part

"if the decision was taken solely at the State level , they are NOT getting involved"

eire4 · 29-10-2020 7:44pm

Here is the bottom line IMHO when it comes to the US Supreme Court and voting. Says so much about who they are really.

According to the US Supreme Court an American has the right to bear arms and the government if it wants to try and take a gun away from you has to go to court to prove why. However voting not so much. If the government takes away someone's right to vote they can do so and then it is up to them to go to court to prove that the government is wrong.

So the bottom line is according to the US Supreme Court having a gun is a right but voting that is only a privilege not a right. As I said above it just says so much about who they are and the US as a country.

Outlaw Pete · 29-10-2020 10:00pm

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

L1011 · 29-10-2020 10:05pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

One post by one 'freelance editorial columnist' which basically means unemployed hack.

Translation - it probably isn't happening.

Foxtrol · 29-10-2020 10:11pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

Yes, the democrats really need to pull this kind of plot to win NY where Trump lost in 2016 by 22 points and according to polls Biden is up 30 points :rolleyes:

More unsubstantiated rubbish which I'm sure Trump will be tweeting about soon (especially seeing as the guy making the claim is tweeting at basically every right wing grifter).

everlast75 · 29-10-2020 10:15pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Yes, the democrats really need to pull this kind of plot to win NY where Trump lost in 2016 by 22 points and according to polls Biden is up 30 points :rolleyes:

More unsubstantiated rubbish which I'm sure Trump will be tweeting about soon (especially seeing as the guy making the claim is tweeting at basically every right wing grifter).

I would imagine if Trump is trailing on the night he will demand votes be counted into the middle of next year

MJohnston · 29-10-2020 10:30pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

Honestly, if this actually was happening, I’d think it most likely to be a Trumpist plot to undermine the whole process. Far more likely to be (a) made up (b) an error

marno21 · 29-10-2020 10:49pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I don't got it what's difference between b and c, and why multiple languages?

The Conservative Party of New York also nominated Trump/Pence as nominees for President.

spacecoyote · 29-10-2020 11:04pm

Saw some remarks also stating it's not a faked ballot, but is a sample letter that was sent showing how to complete the ballot papers, but not sure to be honest.

Smacks of more fakery to try dispute the result

L1011 · 29-10-2020 11:13pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I don't got it what's difference between b and c, and why multiple languages?

It may be a down ticket voting option possibly - there is a Conservative Party of New York who have also nominated Trump.

If its not down-ticket - in years when the candidate isn't the controversial option but the party might be, some nonsense option like this lets you say you didn't vote for the party.

Brussels Sprout · 29-10-2020 11:17pm

L1011 wrote: »

One post by one 'freelance editorial columnist' which basically means unemployed hack.

Translation - it probably isn't happening.

His bio also says that he's heavily associated with Fox News.

I also checked out his personal website (aside: the very worst layout that I have seen on a website in many years) and found this in the "Trump Policies" section

Stick to the issues and I can make you a Trump supporter in 10 minutes

by Jake Novak

I dunno - something tells me that this guy might not be a neutral conveyor of the facts.

Brussels Sprout · 29-10-2020 11:22pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I don't got it what's difference between b and c, and why multiple languages?

There isn't an actual official language in the USA. English is the de-facto language but in areas with many first generation immigrants who cannot speak English, such as New York in this case, businesses and public services will cater to the most common languages in the area.

An Ciarraioch · 29-10-2020 11:22pm

The one thing we can safely say is that early voting will exceed 100 million, having already moved from 75m to 81m today.

Francie Barrett · 29-10-2020 11:23pm

Trump is in serious trouble. His polling is horrible, even more so than in 2016 and what's worse again, he's showing no signs of a late surge this time. Given covid and the fact that the economy is a mess, I struggle to believe that an increased turnout will help Trump. I actually think that Biden might just win this decisively.

Timberrrrrrrr · 29-10-2020 11:38pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

Ah Pete, thats embarrassing! That's a whole new low, I know Trumps fans are desperate at this stage but that? Wow!!

TomOnBoard · 29-10-2020 11:38pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

A truly pathetic post, Pete... Standards are slipping!

Sample ballots are available there, to explain how the voting process works...

https://findmypollsite.vote.nyc/?hn=&sn=&zip=11418#top

Try harder and please stop insulting our intelligence!

TomOnBoard · 29-10-2020 11:42pm

Here's a sample ballot from the Board of Elections for Queens, NYC:

Outlaw Pete · 29-10-2020 11:52pm

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Ah Pete, thats embarrassing! That's a whole new low, I know Trumps fans are desperate at this stage but that? Wow!!

TomOnBoard wrote: »

A truly pathetic post, Pete... Standards are slipping!

Not exactly sure what either of you are suggesting but (Fox News association sneers aside) the source is clearly credible and I see nothing to suggest they are not.

If the ballot turns out to be fake, direct your incredulity at them.

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321918394241896448

everlast75 · 29-10-2020 11:59pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Not exactly sure what either of you are suggesting but (Fox News association sneers aside) the source is clearly credible and I see nothing to suggest they are not.

If the ballot turns out to be fake, direct your incredulity at them.

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321918394241896448

Have you given up on the Hunter Biden theory peddled by Rudy "I was just tucking in my shirt" Gulliani and Tucker "it got lost in the mail" Carlson?

ExMachina1000 · 30-10-2020 12:02am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

His bio also says that he's heavily associated with Fox News.

I also checked out his personal website (aside: the very worst layout that I have seen on a website in many years) and found this in the "Trump Policies" section

I dunno - something tells me that this guy might not be a neutral conveyor of the facts.

If the allegations are true you would hardly expect a Biden supporter to be the one bringing them forward.

briany · 30-10-2020 12:02am

Never heard of electoral fraud being much of an issue in previous U.S. presidential elections. Not saying it doesn't happen to some degree but never to the point of it being decisive. No doubt if Biden wins, Trump fans will be screaming about it from the hilltops, but would they countenance the idea, even just for a second, that the polls were right?

In the words of Trump, "We'll have to wait and see..."

TomOnBoard · 30-10-2020 12:10am

Manic Moran wrote: »

As I understand it, Barrett's participation may be unlikely to make a difference anyway. The swing vote on this topic seems to be Roberts, and he's apparently making his decisions on the basis of whether or not it is appropriate for federal courts to get involved in this sort of state-level voting processes. There were two cases which got up there recently about mail-in-ballot deadlines, one was Pennsylvania, the other Wisconsin. He joined with the liberal wing in the Pennsylvania case (5-3) as he believed the federal court below was wrong as a matter of process to reverse the State court. He joined with the conservative wing in the Wisconsin case as that came up through the State court system.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-wisconsin-elections-us-supreme-court-dcf1e115d0804e203ef2cf9887cfabff

I don't agree with that assessment.

The PA case was decided last week. It was 4-4, and not 5-3. Because it was tied, the lower Court decision stood.

The Reps went back in to have it re-heard once Barrett was sworn in. She did NOT recuse herself; rather she declined to offer an opinion simply because she had not had time to read into the case. Therefore, the 4-4 stands right now.

However, Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch said that they might well hear it again after the election. Kavanaugh made no comment- he's probably still smarting after having been called out on his cack-handed written opinion after the Wisconsin decision! Imagine a SCOTUS decision having to be amended within 48 hours of being published!!!

Back to PA. If PA is close, and if mail-in ballots are crucial, the GOP will go back to SCOTUS, and Barrett WILL opine. I have no doubt that she will row in with Thomas/Alito/Gorsuch/Kavanaugh, and mail-in ballots will be thrown out if they don't conform to the new decision.

Furthermore, the PA GOP may well embark on a lengthy legal battle, simply to run down the clock and prevent the election being offically called. IF PA is the deciding State from an EC point of view, ( eg. Biden = 268 from all other states except PA), and the election can't be called before the Electoral College, then the Republican PA Assembly will simply appoint EC reps to give the 20 votes to Trump, REGARDLESS of how poorly Trump may have done! This would follow in the vein of Bush V Gore and the battle of Florida in 2000.

L1011 · 30-10-2020 12:12am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

If the ballot turns out to be fake, direct your incredulity at them.

Attempting to redirect the fallout from falling for nonsense isn't going to work.

Random unemployed hack makes extraordinary claim with absolutely falsifiable "evidence", trying to get people to retweet it; rather than actually going to any authorities about it.

Why would someone receiving such a thing go to a random unemployed hack about it anyway?

And why would there be Democrat driven electoral fraud in a state they would win under any circumstances?

If (sorry, when) it turns out to be fake, you need to carry all the gullibility.

pgmcpq · 30-10-2020 12:18am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Not exactly sure what either of you are suggesting but (Fox News association sneers aside) the source is clearly credible and I see nothing to suggest they are not.

If the ballot turns out to be fake, direct your incredulity at them.

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321918394241896448

Interesting .... Trump has no chance of winning NY so i find it hard to imagine the Biden campaign sitting around desperately faking ballots in Queens. I'll add it to the digusted ex-Biden supporter breathlessly reporting the Biden advocates sex-change operations for 8 year olds, or the nassive sign in the neighbouring dustrict annoucing the endorsenent of the local Reoublican congressman by an LGBQT group that no one has ever heard of !

This is the dirtiest election I've ever seen ...most sane Republican are embarassed.... and the Proud Boys are exoected nearby tomorrow to visit a local business if which they "disaoorove".

Brussels Sprout · 30-10-2020 12:26am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Not exactly sure what either of you are suggesting but (Fox News association sneers aside) the source is clearly credible and I see nothing to suggest they are not.

I'm afraid we're going to have to disagree on that assertion.

BonnieSituation · 30-10-2020 12:32am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Ah here, how can this nonsense be happening:

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1321900543451799559

So the Dems are ballot stuffing in Queens? Seems a bit pointless to break the law so blatantly in a district that is as blue as the sky!

Larbre34 · 30-10-2020 12:35am

I think myself that for the above scenario to be a possibility, you would have to have Ohio and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Florida and Georgia and one or two others all effectively in the same situation, which is pretty unlikely.

In other words, I expect Biden to receive enough clear EC votes from States by a clear margin, not to have any one close-call State prevent the election from being called on the night. I have it as a minimum 317 to 218 to Biden, but more likely 337 to 198

gmisk · 30-10-2020 12:37am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So the Dems are ballot stuffing in Queens? Seems a bit pointless to break the law so blatantly in a district that is as blue as the sky!

It's almost like its a pile of sh1t invented by a desperate campaign.

BonnieSituation · 30-10-2020 12:42am

gmisk wrote: »

It's almost like its a pile of sh1t invented by a desperate campaign.

The district is so blue that the Republicans haven't even nominated a candidate for Congress, State Senator or the local assembly.

Ridiculous nonsense.

gmisk · 30-10-2020 12:43am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The district is so blue that the Republicans haven't even nominated a candidate for Congress, State Senator or the local assembly.

Ridiculous nonsense.

Thats it tbh.

They can't even make up dirt convincingly anymore it's sad really.
The trick might have worked at one stage...Hillary's emails etc...but it's worn very thin

Water John · 30-10-2020 12:48am

Here's another conspiracy theory debunked:
'A fake “intelligence” document circulating the internet laid the groundwork for the unsubstantiated Hunter Biden conspiracy theories that Republicans have been pushing all month, NBC reports.

From NBC:

One month before a purported leak of files from Hunter Biden’s laptop, a fake “intelligence” document about him went viral on the right-wing internet, asserting an elaborate conspiracy theory involving former Vice President Joe Biden’s son and business in China.

The document, a 64-page composition that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump, appears to be the work of a fake “intelligence firm” called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents.

The author of the document, a self-identified Swiss security analyst named Martin Aspen, is a fabricated identity, according to analysis by disinformation researchers, who also concluded that Aspen’s profile picture was created with an artificial intelligence face generator. The intelligence firm that Aspen lists as his previous employer said that no one by that name had ever worked for the company and that no one by that name lives in Switzerland, according to public records and social media searches.

One of the original posters of the document, a blogger and professor named Christopher Balding, took credit for writing parts of it when asked about it and said Aspen does not exist.

Despite the document’s questionable authorship and anonymous sourcing, its claims that Hunter Biden has a problematic connection to the Communist Party of China have been used by people who oppose the Chinese government, as well as by far-right influencers, to baselessly accuse candidate Joe Biden of being beholden to the Chinese government.

The fake intelligence document, however, preceded the leak by months, and it helped lay the groundwork among right-wing media for what would become a failed October surprise: a viral pile-on of conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden.' Guardian

Outlaw Pete · 30-10-2020 12:50am

L1011 wrote: »

If (sorry, when) it turns out to be fake, you need to carry all the gullibility.

No problem, should that happen, and as soon as I see the guts of the Politics forum carry all their gullibility for believing Trump was a compromised agent of the Kremlin, I'll post my mea culpas re the filled in ballots.

In other news, MN is not going the way of PA, thankfully:

https://twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1321953042271506432

L1011 · 30-10-2020 12:55am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

No problem, should that happen, and as soon as I see the guts of the Politics forum carry all their gullibility for believing Trump was a compromised agent of the Kremlin

So even when it turns out to be nonsense, you admitting that you were gullible is dependent on something else?

I'm not really sure you get how this works. You're either gullible or you're not.

There is an awful lot of attempts at spoilers like "her emails!" 2.0 going around, and you have posted some of them. They're all amateur gubbins.

I don't honestly expect to see you post here ever again after maybe the 5th, though, so this is all rather irrelvant.

Overheal · 30-10-2020 12:59am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

No problem, should that happen, and as soon as I see the guts of the Politics forum carry all their gullibility for believing Trump was a compromised agent of the Kremlin, I'll post my mea culpas re the filled in ballots.

In other news, MN is not going the way of PA, thankfully:

https://twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1321953042271506432

3 judge panel, one Obama, GWB, and Trump appointee.

Here is the opinion:

https://ecf.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/20/10/203139P.pdf

2 Business days before Election Day was not the best time to change the Status Quo with 80 million votes already cast.

Outlaw Pete · 30-10-2020 1:07am

L1011 wrote: »

I don't honestly expect to see you post here ever again after maybe the 5th, though, so this is all rather irrelvant.

Why would I not post here again after Trump wins reelection?

L1011 · 30-10-2020 1:08am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Why would I not post here again after Trump wins reelection?

He isn't going to. And that's why we'll never see you again

Larbre34 · 30-10-2020 1:17am

Correct. He isn't going to be reelected. He is going to lose by 200 or so electoral college votes and by 10 to 15 million, at least, in the popular vote.

The only contest still too close to call is the US Senate, but if I had to choose I'd say the Dems will take it.

Graham · 30-10-2020 1:17am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

In other news, MN is not going the way of PA, thankfully:

Why would you be pleased that some voters may not have their votes counted?

Wouldn't you rather everyone got their vote counted?

Larbre34 · 30-10-2020 1:35am

I've said it before in this thread as someone who has counted elections for 20 years - and bear in mind we don't allow it in Ireland - there is zero justification for asking for or expecting ballots received after election day to be counted.

The date of this election has been known for 4 years, the options to vote early or mail in your ballot have been open for many weeks already. If a ballot doesn't make it on time that's nobody's fault except the voter. These court petitions undermine confidence in the vote and that's the last thing that's needed. In reality, "late" ballots would not add up to the margin of error anyway.

Timberrrrrrrr · 30-10-2020 1:39am

Graham wrote: »

Why would you be pleased that some voters may not have their votes counted?

Wouldn't you rather everyone got their vote counted?

Unfortunately this is exactly what the Republican Party and their zealots do not want, they know time is running out, at this stage it isn't wether Trump loses the election it's all about damage limitation and trying to ensure he doesn't have the biggest loss in US presidential history.

Overheal · 30-10-2020 1:41am

Larbre34 wrote: »

I've said it before in this thread as someone who has counted elections for 20 years - and bear in mind we don't allow it in Ireland - there is zero justification for asking for or expecting ballots received after election day to be counted.

The date of this election has been known for 4 years, the options to vote early or mail in your ballot have been open for many weeks already. If a ballot doesn't make it on time that's nobody's fault except the voter. These court petitions undermine confidence in the vote and that's the last thing that's needed. In reality, "late" ballots would not add up to the margin of error anyway.

At the same time the election doesn't really happen until December 14, which is why I think lighting hair on fire over 3-7 days to let mail rifle through a beleaguered and crippled postal system is not unreasonable.

US Presidential Election 2020

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