2020 Arc De Triomphe

BagheeraBlue · 01-10-2020 1:08pm

oisin murphy coke test positive in france , mind french galop tried to pull the same **** with robbie downey even with hair strand tests both coming back negative

tryfix · 01-10-2020 2:40pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

No..Horse .........(Draw)

1 PERSIAN KING (7)
2 ROYAL JULIUS (8)
3 WAY TO PARIS (6)
4 JAPAN (11)
5 SOVEREIGN (10)
6 STRADIVARIUS (14)
7 SOTTSASS (4)
8 ENABLE (5)
9 DEIRDRE (12)
10 GOLD TRIP (9)
11 CHACHNAK (13)
12 IN SWOOP (1)
13 MOGUL (3)
14 SERPENTINE (15)
15 RAABIHAH (2)

With this smaller field and slow ground I think the draw makes little difference.
On fast ground a low draw is important.
I will post the winner when I have my bet placed. :cool:

I'm fairly confused at this stage.

It's likely to be a fair bit harder to pick the winner on atrocious ground, but the odds for the likes of Stradivarius are crazy short which means that there's some potentially rich pickings to be had on on some of the less fancied horses.

If staying is the game then the result by Dosage Index would be

In Swoop DI 0.57
Enable DI 0.60
Serpentine DI 0.71
Japan DI 0.74
Mogul DI 0.74
Sovereign DI 0.76
Stradivarius DI 0.91
Sottsass DI 1.00
Gold Trip DI 1.22
Raabihah DI 1.22
Royal Julius DI 1.33
Way To Paris DI 1.75
Persian King DI 1.86
Deirdre DI 2.20
Chachnak DI 3.00

The Tetrarch · 01-10-2020 2:41pm

Poor show by Betfair.
The Arc antepost market is suspended, but they have not put up a raceday market.

byronbay2 · 01-10-2020 2:51pm

In case anyone here backed Love ante-post with PP, they are giving a "Justice Refund" for all bets, no max. Fair dues to them, soothes the pain a little bit although most of my Love dosh was on BF.

Francie Barrett · 01-10-2020 5:20pm

I am backing Japan at 16/1 for the simple reason that this is the first time in 8 runs that Ryan Moore is no longer on it

UrbanFret · 01-10-2020 11:24pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I am backing Japan at 16/1 for the simple reason that this is the first time in 8 runs that Ryan Moore is no longer on it

he'd need the rest take the wrong course. I must be missing something with this horse. Has looked group 3 class anytime I have watched him.

RivetingRoger · 02-10-2020 8:59am

Any chance Boyles will do a refund on a Love/Battassh double placed in shop on Tuesday do ye think lads, or is that one for the bin?

Francie Barrett · 02-10-2020 9:08am

Battaash out now

Slattsy · 02-10-2020 9:12am

Ground must be close to unraceable.

Francie Barrett · 02-10-2020 9:14am

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I am backing Japan at 16/1 for the simple reason that this is the first time in 8 runs that Ryan Moore is no longer on it

On decent ground, I'd agree. On very soft/heavy as we look like we might get, anything can happen, and Japan should certainly stay as evidenced by last years Arc.

RivetingRoger · 02-10-2020 9:39am

The more it rains, the tougher it gets, Stradivarius might be the one!!!

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2020 10:48am

My guess

1 Sottsass
2 In Swoop
3 Stradivarius
4 Enable
5 Way To Paris
6 Sovereign
7 Raabihah
8 Persian King
9 Japan
10 Mogul
11 Serpentine
12 Gold Trip
13 Royal Julius
14 Chachnak
15 Deirdre

RivetingRoger · 02-10-2020 12:01pm

Hard to go for Sottsass
Needed to make more of an impression at the Curragh for me

Rabbit Redux · 02-10-2020 12:18pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I am backing Japan at 16/1 for the simple reason that this is the first time in 8 runs that Ryan Moore is no longer on it

Wouldn't have a lot of faith in Yutaka Take to do any better though.

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2020 12:45pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Hard to go for Sottsass
Needed to make more of an impression at the Curragh for me

Hard to make an impression at The Curragh when he never ran there.

RivetingRoger · 02-10-2020 1:22pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Hard to make an impression at The Curragh when he never ran there.

Leopardstown, my apols
Arsehole!!!

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2020 1:43pm

longshotvalue · 02-10-2020 1:57pm

Soverign at 80/1 5 places is mad, and also he is 33/1 to place only 3 places all 365. Ive dabbled in both. Bunch of donkeys apart from fav, nothing between the rest of em.

tryfix · 03-10-2020 3:32am

The race appears to be there on a plate for Enable. She should be far too good for this bunch, not too sure though that she will like Heavy ground.

I'm going for a bit of an outsider in Serpentine, he was good to me when he was supplemented for the Epsom Derby. They've supplemented him again when they could just have left him out of it if he wasn't good enough. He comes a family that likes Soft Ground so I'm not worried on that score, he has bags of stamina and he has a high cruising speed. His draw is bad but they say it doesn't matter on Heavy Ground.

Hoping to see Sovereign making the running with Serpentine making his way up to track him. I like Mogul but his G1 win was rated very low and this would need a 10lb improvement from him.

RivetingRoger · 03-10-2020 8:48am

Tricast !

1. Mogul
2. Stradivarius
3. Enable

Get on !

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2020 10:42am

ITV Racing: The Opening Show on ITV4 this morning was a painful watch at times.
Enable, Enable, Enable. Will she make history? She is already the greatest horse ever. Frankie went to soon on her last year.
I do not like excuses for defeats.

This in the Racing Post Weekender this week
"The Paris showpiece has the uncanny habit of producing the wrong result. Think back to when Akiyda beat Ardross, Subotica floored User Friendly and Sulamani succumed to the stronger finish of Marienbard. No way was Rail Link a superior horse to Deep Impact, and then the great injustice of Tony Bin robbing Mtoto. And let's not even go there last year. It can be a funny old race."
I think the same writer previously said that Orfevre threw away the race to Solemia in 2012.
For the record Deep Impact was only 3rd in the race and was subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance.

If I did get anything out of ITV4 this morning it was that John Gosden thinks Stradavarius will run a big race (trainer code for has a good chance), and Enable is not the horse of previous years. Perhaps John Gosden is trying to take the pressure off.

Longchamp: ground lourde (4.8): heavy ground

pottokblue · 03-10-2020 10:44am

In the Arc I like Mogul, Stradivarius and Persianking

Today my longchamps bets :Mykiss, ladyprincess, glycon, paix, princesszoe, kaiserperle,

I fancy princesszoe the most and will do an L15: mykiss, ladyprincess, princeesszoe, kaiserperle

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2020 11:22am

I keep an Excel file of the draw in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, all finishers from 1971 to 2019 (47 years, 1982 missing).
On fast ground a low draw is favoured. On soft/heavy the draw is less important.
I banded the 47 years into fast (14 races), good (16 races), slow ground (17 races).
Average draw of fast ground winners (5.5/16.3 starters), good (8.1/18.2 starters), slow (10.4/18.0 starters).

This morning I added another column: age of the winner.
Average age of fast ground winners (3.35), good (3.44), slow (3.71).
Number of wins age 3,4,5: fast (11,1,2), good (10,5,1), slow (6,10,1)
3yos do best on fast ground. 4yos do best on slow ground (even though they carry more weight).
Winners fast (4yo: Treve; 5yo: Marienbard; Tony Bin)
Winners good (5yo: Waldgeist)
Winners slow (3yo: Treve; Dalakhani; Sagamix; Workforce; All Along; Montjeu)

The 2019 race won by Waldgeist was 30th fastest of the 47 races indicating the ground was not as slow as many thought.

RivetingRoger · 03-10-2020 1:17pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

ITV Racing: The Opening Show on ITV4 this morning was a painful watch at times.
Enable, Enable, Enable. Will she make history? She is already the greatest horse ever. Frankie went to soon on her last year.
I do not like excuses for defeats.

This in the Racing Post Weekender this week
"The Paris showpiece has the uncanny habit of producing the wrong result. Think back to when Akiyda beat Ardross, Subotica floored User Friendly and Sulamani succumed to the stronger finish of Marienbard. No way was Rail Link a superior horse to Deep Impact, and then the great injustice of Tony Bin robbing Mtoto. And let's not even go there last year. It can be a funny old race."
I think the same writer previously said that Orfevre threw away the race to Solemia in 2012.
For the record Deep Impact was only 3rd in the race and was subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance.

If I did get anything out of ITV4 this morning it was that John Gosden thinks Stradavarius will run a big race (trainer code for has a good chance), and Enable is not the horse of previous years. Perhaps John Gosden is trying to take the pressure off.

Longchamp: ground lourde (4.8): heavy ground

Take the pressure off who? The horse???

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2020 1:40pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Take the pressure off who? The horse???

My guess is the horse was not listening to that Sky Sports TV interview.

The Racing Post Weekender front page has "The queen of the turf bids to finish her career in the grandest way, by winning a historic third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe".
Inside the paper there is the "Enable special - will the queen reign one last time?"
John Gosden is sensible enough to try to lessen the hype from TV, newspapers, and social media.
It does not make sense for him to increase expectations and the extra pressure to deliver the win.
I hope my explanation clarifies my earlier post.

RivetingRoger · 03-10-2020 2:37pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

My guess is the horse was not listening to that Sky Sports TV interview.

The Racing Post Weekender front page has "The queen of the turf bids to finish her career in the grandest way, by winning a historic third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe".
Inside the paper there is the "Enable special - will the queen reign one last time?"
John Gosden is sensible enough to try to lessen the hype from TV, newspapers, and social media.
It does not make sense for him to increase expectations and the extra pressure to deliver the win.
I hope my explanation clarifies my earlier post.

Extra pressure on who ?
Trainer? Jockey? Owners?

BagheeraBlue · 03-10-2020 2:55pm

Murtagh will tear lumps out of Keane for that

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2020 3:03pm

I have a stalker. :rolleyes:

byronbay2 · 03-10-2020 4:07pm

tryfix wrote: »

The race appears to be there on a plate for Enable. She should be far too good for this bunch, not too sure though that she will like Heavy ground.

I disagree. I don't think Enable has anything to spare over this field and would be reasonably surprised were she to win. Big Lay for me at around 2.6 on Betfair.

maximo31 · 03-10-2020 4:08pm

Great win for Princess Zoe there!

Slattsy · 03-10-2020 4:13pm

Princess Zoe! Told you all haha

Joe_ Public · 03-10-2020 5:01pm

Absolutely delighted for Tony Mullins, one of Irish racing's good guys. Paddy would be some proud man today what his son has done with that horse.

tryfix · 03-10-2020 9:28pm

byronbay2 wrote: »

I disagree. I don't think Enable has anything to spare over this field and would be reasonably surprised were she to win. Big Lay for me at around 2.6 on Betfair.

It's easy to look at her and think that she's getting on a bit, but finding one that should beat her on the form book is nigh on impossible.

kksaints · 03-10-2020 9:39pm

All of the O'Brien horses out of the Longchamp meeting tomorrow according to Sky Sports Racing.

Daraa · 03-10-2020 9:45pm

https://twitter.com/ballydoyle/status/1312487812919300096?s=21

Andrew00 · 03-10-2020 9:48pm

Joke Arc weekend

EICVD · 03-10-2020 10:28pm

Great competitive days racing ruined.

tryfix · 03-10-2020 11:21pm

Feck sake, now I'm down to a small bet on Persian King and he'll need a lift in a horse box to stay the trip. ,&#55358;&#56611;

The Tetrarch · 04-10-2020 10:26am

I ignored my earlier analysis and had a few bets on Serpentine at 21 and 22.
This morning I bet 150 at 12s on In Swoop, although I think he lacks the speed to stay with the race.

markjbloggs · 04-10-2020 10:29am

"Contaminated feed" , eh?

Hmmmmm...........

Slattsy · 04-10-2020 11:11am

Can't find a bet anywhere in France.

Enable wins this by default doesn't she. Most of the field won't stay or just not good enough. Stradivarius the only danger? Jesus.

Slattsy · 04-10-2020 11:11am

Can't find a bet anywhere in France.

Enable wins this by default doesn't she. Most of the field won't stay or just not good enough. Stradivarius the only danger? Jesus.

piplip87 · 04-10-2020 11:38am

Surely there will be massive repercussions for this craic with the feed. Could explain the 400/1 second yesterday's in Tipp.

Apparently Varians yard been hit with it too.

I think Gain could be in trouble here.

piplip87 · 04-10-2020 11:38am

Surely there will be massive repercussions for this craic with the feed. Could explain the 400/1 second yesterday's in Tipp.

Apparently Varians yard been hit with it too.

I think Gain could be in trouble here.

zpehtsfd · 04-10-2020 12:04pm

I'm seeing double. Contaminated breakfast?

Lumping on Enable & Alpine Star today. And Simply a Breeze in Killarney. GLTA

boardise · 04-10-2020 12:06pm

markjbloggs wrote: »

"Contaminated feed" , eh?

Hmmmmm...........

Intriguing and tantalising comment . Anything more specific forthcoming ?

IAMAMORON · 04-10-2020 12:50pm

IAMAMORON · 04-10-2020 1:09pm

Blake hanging them all on ITV. I would say his phone is about to explode.

Varian pulled all his runners yesterday as well.

They are going to blame the supplier.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1002/1169062-gain-investigates-banned-substance-in-horse-food/

Slattsy · 04-10-2020 1:14pm

What did Blake say?

IAMAMORON · 04-10-2020 2:53pm

I am sick to the teeth of this ITV Enable love in. Your man Chamberlain really wrecks my head.

2020 Arc De Triomphe

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