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End of November/start of December Forecast

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    #122
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    nacho libre wrote: »
    well, he showed it quite cold on friday and saturday with wintry showers across a lot of the country and troughs(?) coming down from the north every so often. of course with some of these troughs, even though there coming down from a northerly direction, they probably could contain warmer air which ruins everything at lower levels but still i'm optimistic that some of us will experience snow at lower levels. if i'm wrong i'm off to the high ground in Wicklow for the weekend:pac:
    Thanks for that nacho.
    In the meantime i went and had a look myself and took every chart, every ensemble and concluded that the 18Z is poor or very poor for snow, except maybe Lug in Wicklow. Snow above 500meters. Cold rain with NE winds to the east with the south midlands in the favoured spot with low temps and Dp but no precip.

    Precip arrives along the east coast and moves SW across the country dying out. Wind is sourced from the SE and is modified mild before it hits the coast here reflecting in 850mb temps of -3C. Height remains at borderline with 528 moving back out west again. I can also see the troughs moving south but more like small circulations with warm core's on the 18Z but still deflect the cold air out to the Atlantic.

    Sunday into Monday is marginal for snow to lower levels and is the best shot of something wintry from the 18Z. That run was dyer imo but is still too early to call.
    Gerry must be going on the 12Z ECM as GFS 18Z backs off totally.


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    #123
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Thanks for that nacho.
    In the meantime i went and had a look myself and took every chart, every ensemble and concluded that the 18Z is poor or very poor for snow, except maybe Lug in Wicklow. Snow above 500meters. Cold rain with NE winds to the east with the south midlands in the favoured spot with low temps and Dp but no precip.

    Precip arrives along the east coast and moves SW across the country dying out. Wind is sourced from the SE and is modified mild before it hits the coast here reflecting in 850mb temps of -3C. Height remains at borderline with 528 moving back out west again. I can also see the troughs moving south but more like small circulations with warm core's on the 18Z but still deflect the cold air out to the Atlantic.

    Sunday into Monday is marginal for snow to lower levels and is the best shot of something wintry from the 18Z. That run was dyer imo but is still too early to call.
    Gerry must be going on the 12Z ECM as GFS 18Z backs off totally.

    the bbc forecast is backing this up as they show the snow line around 100 miles to the northwest of ireland. if only that low pressure would move 50 - 100 miles further to the south things could be different. i hate when it's feels really raw and the best we get is cold rain and some sleet:(


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    #124
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    We can forget about snow. Metcheck have the snow symbols out for Ireland for the weekend.


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    #125
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Just viewed the Fax charts for Sunday/Monday. A potential battleground with the arctic air which will be out west and an occluded front in the Irish sea. I posted on this last night and although delayed by a day or two, the arctic air could reach east and the front a bit more west but will it be cold enough?? Seems a short wave pushes down from the north messing things up a bit though. Million miles away to be certain. I wouldn rule snow out just yet untill things become clearer.

    A bit of a nightmare setup to forecast what will happen, where it will happen or if it happens at all:confused::D
    Talk about thinkin out loud in a texting kinda way:o :D

    PPVO89.png


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    #126
    forkassed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 311 ✭✭forkassed


    UKMO looking better this morning :pac:


    Rukm1201.gif


    GFS for the same time aint too shabby


    Rtavn1201.png


    ECM

    Recm1201.gif


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    #127
    rc28
    Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Has anyone seen meteireann's extended outlook on their website??"falls of sleet and snow...severe wintry weather..."


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    #128
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes things looking better than yesterday evening today!

    Almost as good as yesterdays 0z

    Looks like a forecasters nightmare but potential for a good amount of snow almost anywhere.

    Any movement of the LP over Biscay east will make our lifes that much easier.


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    #129
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,289 ✭✭✭arctictree


    The 00z ECM is a cracker this morning. Wintry weather Sat/Sun/Mon, a brief interlude and then more of the same for the following weekend. Needless to say, the closer we get to XMas, the more chance that this wintry weather can turn into a significant event....

    BTW, I remember very well the early December of 1981. Was heavy snow and very low temps on the east coast down to sea level...


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    #130
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    arctictree wrote: »
    The 00z ECM is a cracker this morning. Wintry weather Sat/Sun/Mon, a brief interlude and then more of the same for the following weekend. Needless to say, the closer we get to XMas, the more chance that this wintry weather can turn into a significant event....

    BTW, I remember very well the early December of 1981. Was heavy snow and very low temps on the east coast down to sea level...

    Here's hoping...

    I've had a quick look at some of next weekends charts from, they are all over the place tbh, but nothing bad really,ranging from a deep low to the northwest,to scandi high pressure influence,to low pressure in the north sea. Lets enjoy this weekend first and hope it delivers something to somebody :)


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    #131
    Mothman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    rc28 wrote: »
    Has anyone seen meteireann's extended outlook on their website??"falls of sleet and snow...severe wintry weather..."
    Met E are quite bullish

    The full outlook as of AM 26th Nov
    The outlook is for cold weather over the weekend with wintry showers at times. Temperatures will start to drop close to or below freezing during Thursday night with severe frost developing and patches of freezing fog forming in the still cold air of night. This will be followed by more freezing nights right through the weekend and on into the start of next week. At the same time daytime temperatures from Friday right through to Monday will only be around 6 or 7C at the very best, and indeed will be lower than this for most of the time. While the weather will often be dry, showers could occur anywhere or anytime from Friday right through the weekend; with the temperatures so low falls of sleet and snow could well occur. There is a threat of more severe wintry weather later on Sunday or during Monday.


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    #132
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    arctictree wrote: »
    The 00z ECM is a cracker this morning. Wintry weather Sat/Sun/Mon, a brief interlude and then more of the same for the following weekend. Needless to say, the closer we get to XMas, the more chance that this wintry weather can turn into a significant event....

    BTW, I remember very well the early December of 1981. Was heavy snow and very low temps on the east coast down to sea level...
    Not quite...
    We had sleet here.
    Anywhere 3 miles inland from here had an awfull lot of snow including Rathdrum.

    But the important thing...remember what happened a few short weeks after that (january 1982) yes,the drifts here were up top the tops of the telephone poles.
    In the woods around croghan above 1500ft the trees disappeared under 30 to 40ft drifts.
    My Aunt who lived on a farm at circa 700ft just 4 miles from Arklow had to exit her house from an upstairs back window in the lee of the wind..
    Down here close to sea level we had no electricity for 3 whole days and nights as the lines had the thickness of a mug with frozen snow.The Esb had no trouble examining them though as they were at foot height once you were walking on the drifts.

    Incidently those drifts stuck around in the ditches here for 3 weeks after the thaw and through lots and lots of rain,thats how much snow there was at sea level.

    A neighbour who worked for what is now coillte was taken up by the air corps to assist in finding villages that couldnt be found up the hills becauses houses and roads were literally buried in the snow.

    Ah the memories of a once in a lifetime experience.
    The blizzard started on a wenesday evening and went on untill saturday complete with thunder and lightning.My then 90 year old Grandfather had not seen the like even in '47.
    To give you an idea of how heavy it was snowing,by the thursday morning the stuff was over a foot deep outside our hall door and on the thursday night my dad was waist deep in the drifts going down the yard and he was over 6ft tall.
    That was thursday and it continued non stop till saturday afternoon.
    It was sub zero with fog on and off for all of the following week.


    Anyhow I digress :p


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    #133
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i'm not going to get my hopes up until i see what the bbc forecaster says at lunchtime. last night's forecast from them wasn't too promising.


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    #134
    rc28
    Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Ice day! http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn15017.png:D
    Practically FI, I know, but one can dream...


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    #135
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    The swing continues, 06Z is a big upgrade again and the cold comes in earlier than 18Z last evening. With a run like that, we could all see some wintry stuff. Have to stress that the model runs are been a nightmare to forecast due to that LP to our south so by no mean's set in stone. The LP is dictating whether the wind is NE or N and how close it will be to the east and south coast with the fronts asscoiated with it. Could have frontal snow in the east or just cold N'ly with the odd shower?

    If that is the setup, what else can be thrown down in the N'ly airstream then.
    For my area it has a NE wind bringing in showers as mainly sleet, but my forecast takes the close proximity to the sea into account and which could be well of snow further inland and on mtns.

    http://www.irlweather.com/wxsimforecast.php

    A good run it has to be said.


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    #136
    kerry1960
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    Naw , nothing happening methinks :mad:.

    He he he :D:D:D , it worked .


    Roll on the Weekend .


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    #137
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,326 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Locking this now, WC has started a new thread here which I feel is completely merited given the potential of the coming days.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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