End of November/start of December Forecast

forkassed

00z isnt as good as yesterdays 12z or 18z but still showing a shortlived cold snap for next weekend.. Heres hoping for upgrades:pac:

Supercell

00Z isn't realy encouraging to be honest. Finding it hard to be excited by the charts as they stand right now. A few frosty nights inland is about all I can see, maybe some showers on the north coast..not much else.

You'll possibly see some snow showers up in annamoe next week though when the wind swings North East.
I'm not so confident for the low landers or the coasties.

The trend in pattern is very very interesting though.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

You'll possibly see some snow showers up in annamoe next week though when the wind swings North East.
I'm not so confident for the low landers or the coasties.

The trend in pattern is very very interesting though.

The trend is very interesting for sure. Whether we get NE winds or just straight Northerlies is all important for eastern snow, not hugely optimistic truth be told, but the charts can and will change so all to play for yet I suppose.

force eleven

Supercell wrote: »

The trend is very interesting for sure. Whether we get NE winds or just straight Northerlies is all important for eastern snow, not hugely optimistic truth be told, but the charts can and will change so all to play for yet I suppose.

Charts are going to flip flop for 3 or 4 more days I feel until next weekends weather is nailed on. Too much bitter experience to expect much, we are still in late November only, so not too worried. Over on TWO, some posters were having kittens last evening Ah youthful exuberance

happyoutscan

Lovely morning in Galway, very mild with no hint of cold. Mighty stuff.

Deep Easterly

happyoutscan wrote: »

Lovely morning in Galway, very mild with no hint of cold. Mighty stuff.

Still mild for sure with temp currently 9.3c, but I'd not go as far to say that it's lovely. Ragged ripped stratus and damp dripping air just don't do it for me.

arctictree

Current GFS 12z shows a snowfest from next Friday on. Obviously FI, but very interesting eye candy!!

A

kerry1960

arctictree wrote: »

Current GFS 12z shows a snowfest from next Friday on. Obviously FI, but very interesting eye candy!!:p

A

I suggest that the word next be inserted in the Thread Title

Very cold next Friday and weekend .......:D:D:D:D:D:D.

Snowbie

Thats what i meant all along KY:D

Threads merged.
Arctic air never reached our shores.

Surprise surprise the Atlantic high won out in the end with air sourced from a less cold direction across Ireland while places like Aberdeen in Scotland has seen snow since early morning under arctic air.

Next, up a cool/cold NW airstream for us on Sunday followed by a northerly for early days then mild and then a setup which is dominated by cold LP( Scandi LP and maybe a Med LP pushing up from the south?) for next weekend. The next week seem to resemble what was typical of November before with short cold/mild spells with both not lasting too long.

Edit: By all means start a seperate thread if a potential event is in the making otherwise use this thread for models, ensembles and forecasts, FI or not.

M.T. Cranium

Looks to me like some heavy snow for the higher elevations on various mountains around the country on Sunday night and Monday, sleety hail or snow pellet showers for the east coast and inland in NNE winds ... with some luck it could turn to snow for a while almost anywhere as the temperature profile is just about marginal for snow and the thickness is close to borderline as well. Could be the borderline snow event of modern times, then.

I'll believe Friday-Sunday when I see it within 72h, that's a long way for low thicknesses to travel by sea, all of which is 10-12 C for the last 48h of the trip. A more direct route might be more convincing.

In between, it warms back up to 11 C, which seems to be the default temperature every month now.

Supercell

Snow days for all if this sucker comes off...


Long way away though.

Snowbie

GFS consistent with cold for the last days of the month as Supercell has posted above.

From the 06Z
Sunday looks set to be cold with a strong NW wind bringing heavy rain hail and sleet showers heaviest in the west and NW. Winds very strong and gusty.

Monday/Tuesday has the winds slowly backing into the N then NNE. Showers becoming more wintry as temps by day drop off. Sharp frosts by night.

Tuesday evening into Wedensday- becomes milder as a warm front approaches from the Atlantic with the possibility of snow on the leading edge mainly over the mountains. One to watch.

Thursday brings another change with the possibility of very cold temps even for November standards. As the cold front passes through winds back into WNW and gradually back NW or NNW later in the day. The 850mb air over Ireland seems to be around -5C to -8C making any showers wintry with snow above 200meters.

Friday and next weekend is progged by the 06Z as been bitter countrywide with strong sourced N'ly winds and a definite risk of snow. Northern and western areas most at risk.
Again it's way off and things can sway back and forward. Interesting outputs though.

nacho libre

bring it on:cool:

CianRyan

Come oooooooooon the east!!:pac:

danni2

Next weekend looks like were seeing an arctic plunge over the atlantic then the cold air will swing over towards ireland, so a chance of some snow around then?

kerry1960

Nothing too dramatic in the Farming Forecast on RTE then .

In the meantime The Eagle not sounding very confident regarding next Thursdays prospects onwards .

That big LP to our SW could end up anywhere and slap on top of the UK would be fine .

arctictree

The charts are showing some fascinating weather for next weekend. Current GFS shows that low tracking up the Irish sea on Saturday night/Sunday morning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Whatever about wintry weather, there should be a lot of precipitation about and strong winds. That low will change course between now and then so it will be an interesting one to watch.

Supercell

The position of that low this weekend is going to be all important - 50 miles east little precip(here), fifty miles west and rain..where it is..epic in the east
Its going to be a nowcast event, these things never ever seem to match preditcions and with such a narrow degree of error, its certainly going to be a nail biter.

nacho libre

i'd like to hear what the bbc weather are saying about this. as they usually are more accurate in their forecasting.

Danno

BBC Countryfile here ---> www.iverweather.co.uk/countryfile.wmv

nacho libre

based on that bbc forecast, i'd say Thursday night looks promising for those of us in west and north west:)

CianRyan

*envious*

Danno

A long way to go still... but the 6pm charts suggest a good chance of heavy showers of snow in western coastal counties from Galway to Donegal.

Snowbie

Danno wrote: »

A long way to go still... but the 6pm charts suggest a good chance of heavy showers of snow in western coastal counties from Galway to Donegal.

Your right it is a long way away still but GFS has constantly in the last 5 runs push the cold air well away to the west this time and in fact the Azores islands will have colder air than Ireland at times from the 18Z output.

The cold air clips the west coast before retreating back west down the mid Atlantic this time with Ireland placed in the middle of nothingness again. The culprit is LP to our SW steering up mildish air and dashing any hopes of the cold that had shown up first on previous runs. However the only positive is were still far from certain of this occuring atm.

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

Ireland placed in the middle of nothingness again..

Quote of the year

M.T. Cranium

At the rate the cold air is shifting west (next weekend) perhaps I'll be the one to see it then.

And perhaps you'll get the next trough over, I mean it shifted about 5 degrees west from run to run, that trend would suggest 20 degrees per day.

Seriously, the 18z depiction looks realistic, I was never too convinced that Ireland could get into a serious snowfall pattern from cold air taking a three day journey over the central Atlantic, and the tendency in recent years has always been for the GFS to downgrade such events as perhaps some signal is picked up that so much cold air cannot all come out from its hiding place at once, over 10-12 C ocean water, and arrive with 510 thickness in western Ireland (or northern Scotland, eastern England, the list seems endless).

Doesn't have any trouble with Hudson Bay or the Great Lakes though, perhaps this is the problem, you've got the wrong kind of water in that ocean.

Danno

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Doesn't have any trouble with Hudson Bay or the Great Lakes though, perhaps this is the problem, you've got the wrong kind of water in that ocean.

Now THAT is quote of the year!!! :pac:

Snowbie

Yes which is true MT, snow is a bonus but in all fairness whether the cold reaches our shores is one thing but whats worth noting is the amount of it pooling around to our north and moving south to affect Ireland(October) and continuing the trend into November with this time the east of us (east UK) being affected this time.

Of one element to affect SST's is the temp of the air above it. Maybe not so much now but later on in the winter instead of 8C temps could be more than 6C in late December. A more common spliting or weakened PV is a possiblity this year with Straospheric warming higher moreso than on previous years. A rare arctic HP could make itself more known to us?

I don't think it's a case of snowfall events happening at this time of year but the possiblity of cooler weather in January especially than of late due to the more cold moving south presently.

M.T. Cranium

Yes I agree totally, the overall picture is good for later snow and cold weather when it's more likely in climatology ... and looking at the 00z GFS run here at a civilized hour, it's still a rather close call for Friday to Sunday snow potential, I could imagine the tops of some mountains getting heavy snow and I know some of the lads are planning a run up there from something I read, even if it's 4-5 C and raining in Dublin it could be 0-1 C on top of the local mountains and snowing, same goes for higher slopes further west. If that low would cut further east it could be a snow event for all.

Some are going to see a bit of snow today as well, I think. The winds are backing N to at least NNE, perhaps NE for a time, then back to N later, but that backing period will be at mid-day so convection could bring snow pellets if not real snow, same thrill I suppose, easier clean up. Kind of like my life in general. :eek:

If somebody had time today, it might be interesting to watch the radar develop and head up to a higher elevation if something heavy moves in, could be quite snowy above about 300 metres perhaps.