Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

sparrowcar · 02-01-2018 12:51pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

TAFS can be occasionally be misleading. at 50 knots it means the wind is likely to gust to between 41 and 59 knots, unless there are local arrangements most wind gust tafs just need to be within 10 knots of the actual.

Have you anything to back this up by any chance? Not saying it's not true but in 20 years in aviation it's the first time I've heard that?

MJohnston · 02-01-2018 12:53pm

Teddy1690 wrote: »

I dunno there is bright sunny skies here in Kildare no even wind seems strange they say to expect storm in just few hours I thought should be atleast cold out but yet all is mild. debating whether to secure the garden furniture or not

It'll actually get even calmer before the winds peak. Expect it to be calm in the East right up until about 5pm or so, then peak around 7 or 8pm tonight. The winds will bring an increase in temperature too, and probably quite a bit of rain, but very abruptly.

km79 · 02-01-2018 12:54pm

Teddy1690 wrote: »

I dunno there is bright sunny skies here in Kildare no even wind seems strange they say to expect storm in just few hours I thought should be atleast cold out but yet all is mild. debating whether to secure the garden furniture or not

Jesus

Cantona's Collars · 02-01-2018 1:05pm

RTE had the forecast on about half an hour ago on TV. They are giving the strongest winds from the North Midlands all the way down through the country. Anything above that line aren't as bad.
Warning of gusts reaching 130kph.

Donegal Storm · 02-01-2018 1:07pm

Is that a sting jet being picked up by the arome model across south Ulster? I've never seen such a small and intense band of winds on a model forecast when the surrounding wind field is relatively benign. Over 150kph being forecast for Belfast..

Outside of that little feature it looks again like a normal winter gale to me, we had gusts of 110-120kph here the other night and it passed without incident. Very windy yes but as long as bins, furniture etc are secured I don't see any issues

Will be interesting to track the feature across Ulster though

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 1:10pm

Max gust speeds from the latest UK Met update for towns and airports in the firing line:

(knots)
Dublin: 50
Dublin Airport: 54
Dundalk: 49
Cork International: 52
Tralee: 54
Shannon Airport: 52
Birr: 54
Mullingar: 42
Rosslare: 58

Keep in mind that the UK Met are often very conservative in their forecasts regarding wind speeds.

Iancar29 · 02-01-2018 1:12pm

Rough position of trough which will soon become more defined as a closed low. Note the strong contrast in colour which is the separation of warmer and cooler airmass, this is what fuels the storm's formation.

Shedbebreezy · 02-01-2018 1:20pm

Latest GFS maintains a max gust of 53mph/46Knots at Dublin Airport

redsteveireland · 02-01-2018 1:24pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Max gust speeds from the latest UK Met update for towns and airports in the firing line:

(knots)
Dublin: 50
Dublin Airport: 54
Dundalk: 49
Cork International: 52
Tralee: 54
Shannon Airport: 52
Birr: 54
Mullingar: 42
Rosslare: 58

Keep in mind that the UK Met are often very conservative in their forecasts regarding wind speeds.

That's based on Met Eireann stations right? Would they not have included Mace Head and Athenry as they look to be close enough to the higher gusts?
I'm not being selfish or anything.

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 1:25pm

EMHI has the low tracking a little further south on the 06z update.

Zone of yellow donates gusts speeds between 48 & 58 knots.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 1:32pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

EMHI has the low tracking a little further south on the 06z update.

Zone of yellow donates gusts speeds between 48 & 58 knots.

The short-range Harmonie here is showing similar

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 1:33pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

That's based on Met Eireann stations right? Would they not have included Mace Head and Athenry as they look to be close enough to the higher gusts?
I'm not being selfish or anything.

They don't seem to have either Atherny or Mace Head on the app RedSteve, but for what it is worth, they have Galway City down for max gust of 54 knots, which I find surprising really.

Shedbebreezy · 02-01-2018 1:33pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

EMHI has the low tracking a little further south on the 06z update.

Zone of yellow donates gusts speeds between 48 & 58 knots.

Upper end of the yellow 58 knots is 107km. I think this will be a pretty standard event, possibility of a narrow swathe getting stronger winds but not as widespread as the orange warning suggests.

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 1:40pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The short-range Harmonie here is showing similar

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Looks to be running further north than the EMHI F?

Just to ask, I thought those charts were based on the short range Hirlam output rather than the Harmonie?

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2018 1:42pm

Yea the short term is a direct hit for Dublin. Sustained gale 9 for city centre.

La.de.da · 02-01-2018 1:45pm

Sorry to ask but is there a guess estimated time that this will hit around tipp or will we see much of it.

Have to arrange a journey.

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 1:50pm

La.de.da wrote: »

Sorry to ask but is there a guess estimated time that this will hit around tipp or will we see much of it.

Have to arrange a journey.

Follow these excellent short range charts La.De.Da, they give a good idea for 2 to 3 hours ahead.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

As it stands, anytime between 5 and 7pm tonight looks potentially dodgy for Co. Tipp.

nacho libre · 02-01-2018 1:52pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Outside of that little feature it looks again like a normal winter gale to me, we had gusts of 110-120kph here the other night and it passed without incident. Very windy yes but as long as bins, furniture etc are secured I don't see any issues

Will be interesting to track the feature across Ulster though

I am not sure about that.
A 74mph gust hitting an isolated spot in Donegal might not have the same impact as one hitting a densely populated area, particularly one where trees have a weak rooting system, as well as the other potential hazards.

pad199207 · 02-01-2018 1:55pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea the short term is a direct hit for Dublin. Sustained gale 9 for city centre.

What about Naas ?

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2018 1:58pm

pad199207 wrote: »

What about Naas ?

Naas also!

munsterlegend · 02-01-2018 1:59pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Naas also!

Travelling up the M7 then!

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 2:00pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looks to be running further north than the EMHI F?

Just to ask, I thought those charts were based on the short range Hirlam output rather than the Harmonie?

Well it does say Hirlam on that page alright, but for some reason I thought I remember reading Harmonie there before! Maybe I'm imagining things...

Oneiric 3 · 02-01-2018 2:01pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Naas also!

Are you basing this on personal intuition or from some model? because the charts available on met.ie at least suggest a sustained gale 8, not gale 9, for the regions you mention.

missfarmer · 02-01-2018 2:07pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Travelling up the M7 then!

Munster Legend. you and me both. :eek:

Discodog · 02-01-2018 2:22pm

Torrential rain now West of Galway. The storm is moving fast.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2018 2:24pm

The tail of the storm is just beginning to become visible off the west coast. This is going to make rapid progress eastwards.

Psychologeeee · 02-01-2018 2:24pm

Currently driving from Louth to Wexford. Hoping to stay ahead of the storm but the sky ahead on the m50 looks ominous

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2018 2:38pm

M6 Buoy down to 985hPa. Has fallen 9hPa in last 3 hours.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 2:38pm

Aerodrome warnings for Shannon and Cork. None for Dublin or Casement (yet).

Shannon
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 021600/030000 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 35-40
BECMG 0216/0218 W 30-35 MAX 50-55 BECMG 0220/0322 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

Cork
EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 021500/030000 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 35-40
BECMG 0215/0217 WSW 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 0217/1219 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

lolie · 02-01-2018 2:45pm

BBC weather showing some snow in the forecast tonight for Northern Ireland and also mentions gusts upto 70mph up there and possible 80mph in the Republic.
https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/948115528534691842

Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

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