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07-10-2019, 18:56   #1
Gaoth Laidir
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Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

Tropical Depression 20W has has rapidly intensified overnight into a 140-knot super typhoon Hagibis as it passed to the east of the Northern Mariana Islands. It's moving westwards and is about to pass near to Saipan and will turn north and head directily towards the Japanese mainland by the weekend. The question is will it affect the Ireland v Samoa game in Fukuoka, on the southwestern island of Kyushu.

The latest forecast track has it strengthening further overnight tonight before gradually starting to weaken over the next few days as it becomes affected by the cooler waters and stronger windshear.



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07-10-2019, 19:07   #2
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Forecast track in relation to Fukuoka. That landfall point is around 700 knm from Fukuoka.

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Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 07-10-2019 at 19:17.
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07-10-2019, 19:14   #3
DOCARCH
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Mightn't do any harm if it stalled a bit and headed straight for Yokohama on Sunday.
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07-10-2019, 19:20   #4
PokeHerKing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DOCARCH View Post
Mightn't do any harm if it stalled a bit and headed straight for Yokohama on Sunday.
Wouldn't make a difference, Japs would get 2 points and wed both be on 16 but they'd still top the group via H2H. It would be the Scots who'd get screwed in that scenario.

Cheers for the thread GL!
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07-10-2019, 19:20   #5
YanSno
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Typhoon Hagibis has undertaken an extraordinary intensification phase over the course of today, and now has estimated winds of 180mph and a pressure of 896mb verified by SATIED. The storm could intensify further overnight, and the forecast calls for the storm to pass through the Northern Mariana islands with winds of 190 or 195mph before beginning to steadily weaken as it heads towards Japan this week.
The immediate threat lies with the Northern Mariana islands, where CDPS Stage 9 (Extreme) conditions are now expected, along with a typhoon warning for Saipan and Tinian, and a Tropical Storm Warning in Guam. Rainfall amounts could reach 12 inches on some of these islands.

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07-10-2019, 19:21   #6
Gaoth Laidir
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JTWC Prognostic Reasoning.

Quote:
WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH COMPACT AND
SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE 5NM EYE. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, CONTINUE TO WRAP
VERY TIGHTLY TOWARD THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD BIASES
ENHANCED BY LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES AT
29-30C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM
PGTW AND RCTP. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 125KTS BY TAU 72, JUST BELOW
STY CATEGORY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
AND EVEN SPREAD TO 155NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY HAGIBIS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS
IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER JAPAN. INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL OFFSET
THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 310NM AT
TAU 120; THIS PLUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS LEND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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07-10-2019, 19:24   #7
Gaoth Laidir
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Based on current data, this looks like being a non-event for Ireland's match, but that won't stop the Irish media getting carried away. The GFS is the easternmost track, almost missing Japan to the east completely, so were that to verify it may not affect any match at all!
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07-10-2019, 19:30   #8
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This is where the centre was in relation to ocean heat content (100-150 kJ/cm²) just before it started rapid intensification last night.




It has a fair bit of dry air to punch through over the next couple of days.

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07-10-2019, 19:33   #9
DOCARCH
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Based on current data, this looks like being a non-event for Ireland's match, but that won't stop the Irish media getting carried away.
George Lee on the way!
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07-10-2019, 19:33   #10
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The question is will rte have a prime time special about it with George Lee flown over to report on it.......

Beaten to it by Docarch
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07-10-2019, 19:34   #11
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I think they all got excited by the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast early this morning Irish time. That had Fukuoka at the centre of their projected track.

Their projected track has changed considerably to the east since then. At the moment Fukuoka looks like one of the safest place in Japan.
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07-10-2019, 19:40   #12
Popeleo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Forecast track in relation to Fukuoka. That landfall point is around 700 knm from Fukuoka.

That landfall point is very near Suzuka and the Japanese GP is this weekend.
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07-10-2019, 19:45   #13
Gaoth Laidir
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Quote:
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George Lee on the way!
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07-10-2019, 19:52   #14
Gaoth Laidir
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Latest Japan Met Agency's track has about a 5% chance of 50-knot winds in Fukuoka.

More info here.

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07-10-2019, 20:56   #15
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Updated Image - Marked Irish and Scottish matches.

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