Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

  • 07-10-2019 6:56pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Tropical Depression 20W has has rapidly intensified overnight into a 140-knot super typhoon Hagibis as it passed to the east of the Northern Mariana Islands. It's moving westwards and is about to pass near to Saipan and will turn north and head directily towards the Japanese mainland by the weekend. The question is will it affect the Ireland v Samoa game in Fukuoka, on the southwestern island of Kyushu.

    The latest forecast track has it strengthening further overnight tonight before gradually starting to weaken over the next few days as it becomes affected by the cooler waters and stronger windshear.

    wp202019.19100706.gif

    20191007.0852.f17.x.ir1km_bw.20WHAGIBIS.130kts-930mb-155N-1482E.072pc.jpg


«134

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Forecast track in relation to Fukuoka. That landfall point is around 700 knm from Fukuoka.

    492532.png


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Mightn't do any harm if it stalled a bit and headed straight for Yokohama on Sunday. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,933 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Mightn't do any harm if it stalled a bit and headed straight for Yokohama on Sunday. ;)

    Wouldn't make a difference, Japs would get 2 points and wed both be on 16 but they'd still top the group via H2H. It would be the Scots who'd get screwed in that scenario.

    Cheers for the thread GL!


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    Typhoon Hagibis has undertaken an extraordinary intensification phase over the course of today, and now has estimated winds of 180mph and a pressure of 896mb verified by SATIED. The storm could intensify further overnight, and the forecast calls for the storm to pass through the Northern Mariana islands with winds of 190 or 195mph before beginning to steadily weaken as it heads towards Japan this week.
    The immediate threat lies with the Northern Mariana islands, where CDPS Stage 9 (Extreme) conditions are now expected, along with a typhoon warning for Saipan and Tinian, and a Tropical Storm Warning in Guam. Rainfall amounts could reach 12 inches on some of these islands.

    H4szfWW.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    JTWC Prognostic Reasoning.
    WDPN31 PGTW 071500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
    WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
    NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH COMPACT AND
    SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE 5NM EYE. THE EIR LOOP
    ALSO SHOWS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, CONTINUE TO WRAP
    VERY TIGHTLY TOWARD THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD BIASES
    ENHANCED BY LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES AT
    29-30C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM
    PGTW AND RCTP. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
    THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
    THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER
    INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
    VWS WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 125KTS BY TAU 72, JUST BELOW
    STY CATEGORY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
    AND EVEN SPREAD TO 155NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
    PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
    C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY HAGIBIS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS
    IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER JAPAN. INCREASING VWS
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL OFFSET
    THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
    DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
    SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 310NM AT
    TAU 120; THIS PLUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS LEND
    LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
    NNNN


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Based on current data, this looks like being a non-event for Ireland's match, but that won't stop the Irish media getting carried away. The GFS is the easternmost track, almost missing Japan to the east completely, so were that to verify it may not affect any match at all!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    This is where the centre was in relation to ocean heat content (100-150 kJ/cm²) just before it started rapid intensification last night.

    2019WP20_OHCNFCST_201910061800.GIF


    It has a fair bit of dry air to punch through over the next couple of days.

    2019WP20_16KMGWVP_201910071510.GIF


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Based on current data, this looks like being a non-event for Ireland's match, but that won't stop the Irish media getting carried away.

    George Lee on the way! :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,993 ✭✭✭ giveitholly


    The question is will rte have a prime time special about it with George Lee flown over to report on it.......

    Beaten to it by Docarch


  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭ Popeleo


    I think they all got excited by the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast early this morning Irish time. That had Fukuoka at the centre of their projected track.

    Their projected track has changed considerably to the east since then. At the moment Fukuoka looks like one of the safest place in Japan.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭ Popeleo


    Forecast track in relation to Fukuoka. That landfall point is around 700 knm from Fukuoka.

    492532.png

    That landfall point is very near Suzuka and the Japanese GP is this weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    George Lee on the way! :p

    492536.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Latest Japan Met Agency's track has about a 5% chance of 50-knot winds in Fukuoka.

    More info here.

    492537.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭ schmoo2k


    Updated Image - Marked Irish and Scottish matches.

    PkL8PkZ.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭ Reckless Abandonment


    Popeleo wrote: »
    That landfall point is very near Suzuka and the Japanese GP is this weekend.

    Wet race.. bring it on


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    Latest track from the JTWC
    WuygYGn.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    It's just passed right over the island of Anatahan, which luckily is uninhabited. The island south of that is Saipan, where Super Royphoon Keane caused damage back in 2002.

    It's going through an eyewall replacement cycle now and is expected to increase slightly to a max of 145 knots before slowly starting to weaken in a couple of days. The new track a slight bit east of the last one, more in line with Yokohama and Tokyo and completely eliminating Fukuoka from the equation. In fact, landfall would be right at Shizuoka, where Ireland played Japan.

    Latest IR

    2019WP20_4KMIRIMG_201910072100.GIF

    Winds

    2019WP20_MPSATWND_201910072100_SWHR.GIF
    WDPN31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
    PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
    WARNING NR 011// RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS STY 20W AS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, 6 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KTS, SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, BOTH OF WHICH ARE CORROBORATED BY THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATCON ESTIMATES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, RESULTING IN A STEADY-STATE INTENSITY OF 140 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD. WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AFTER THE COMPLETION OF THE CURRENT ERC. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

    3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VWS, HIGH SST, AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM?S OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BE DISRUPTED TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SLOWLY INCREASING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN, ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING STY 20W TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WHICH WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A LOW (90 NM) CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN

    wp202019.19100706.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The JMA have it at 105 knots in their update at 2140Z. Seems a little low as they give the gusts as 150 knots. Maybe they're using 10-minute averages.

    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    It's weakened 5 knots overnight as the ERC completed. Slight strengthening should reoccur before it weakens to about a 90-knot landfall now a bit further east again, closer to the Chiba area east of Tokyo Saturday night.

    diag20191008T032611_amsr2_85.png

    wp202019.19100718.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭ schmoo2k


    Updated track from https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/index.html:

    QCbHHZn.png

    (I marked the Irish and Scottish RWC venues for reference)


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭ cherryghost


    Looks likely to affect F1 and Eng rugby this weekend. Suzuka circuit issued a statement this morning regarding a possible vague 'change of events' this weekend for the F1.

    And for the rugby, well..
    World Rugby insists it has a "robust contingency plan in place" should the adverse weather impact tournament fixtures.

    However, any games cancelled at the World Cup because of the weather are registered as scoreless draws.

    Scotland need to beat Japan to stand any chance of reaching the last eight, while a victory sends Ireland into the last eight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The ERC has completed now and the eyewall is no longer a pinhole. The latest track has landfall near Shizuoka on Saturday Japan time. The F1 at Suzuka is about 150 km west of this forecast track so wind would not be a problem for the qualifying but rain sure could.

    wp202019.19100812.gif

    37 GHz (shows lower structure/clouds)

    diag20191008T202140_gmi_37.png

    85 GHz (shows upper structure/deep convection bands). The eye is wider at the top than at lower levels (37 GHz).

    diag20191008T202140_gmi_85.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If it happens during the rugby is it a tryphoon?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭ CIARAN_BOYLE


    If it happens during the rugby is it a tryphoon?

    I was gonna go with

    If the Irish match is cancelled sending Scotland to the qf can we call it typhoon Haggis instead of hagibis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭ Awaaf


    I keep reading it in my head as Typhoon Heebeegeebees! Thanks for the clear updates on this one guys.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Latest forecast keeps the 64-knot radius in the northwest quadrant just far enough away not to affect the F1 at Suzuka. Still looking like landfall as a Cat 1 somewhere in the greater Tokyo region around lunchtime Saturday Irish time (Saturday night Japan time), so probably just early enough not to affect the Scotland match 18-24 hours later.

    492656.gif

    20W_090000sair.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 Naggdefy


    Awaaf wrote: »
    I keep reading it in my head as Typhoon Heebeegeebees! Thanks for the clear updates on this one guys.

    I read it dropping the 'i' as typhoon Hagiis. A Scottish named omen. At first, when it was forecast as a possibility of going to Fukuoka, that our match would be called off and Scotland would beat Japan with both going through to the quarters.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 Cork Boy 53


    Latest forecast keeps the 64-knot radius in the northwest quadrant just far enough away not to affect the F1 at Suzuka. Still looking like landfall as a Cat 1 somewhere in the greater Tokyo region around lunchtime Saturday Irish time (Saturday night Japan time), so probably just early enough not to affect the Scotland match 18-24 hours later.


    That could still potentially affect the England-France and New Zealand- Italy matches on Saturday though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Is it likely to lead to heavy rainfall in the region of the Irish match even if the windstorm misses it? I understands its the worst pitch in the competition as is.....


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Latest forecast. Another direct hit for Tokyo Saturday night (after Faxai a few weeks ago).

    492686.gif

    Latest water vapour image.

    20191009.1600.himawari8.x.wv1km.20WHAGIBIS.140kts-910mb-212N-1396E.100pc.jpg


Advertisement