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09-10-2019, 17:36   #31
Gaoth Laidir
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Latest forecast. Another direct hit for Tokyo Saturday night (after Faxai a few weeks ago).



Latest water vapour image.

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09-10-2019, 20:51   #32
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Hhagibis has made a much earlier turn north and even north-northeastwards by almost half a degree in the past few hours, despite the forecast of it continuing north-northwestwards for the next 24 hours (above). Satellite fixes at 16:20Z and 17:30Z were longitude 139.71E and 139.79E, respectively. The latest sat image at 19Z has it at around 139.90E, which is a difference of about 40 NM compared to where it should have been (around 139.20E)

It seems more than just a wobble. Will it mean it will miss Japan completely? We'll see...

16:20Z


17:30Z
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09-10-2019, 22:28   #33
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The JTWC say it's just a wobble and it will resume NNW-wards. Still, it's still heading NNE-wards and is now centred along 140.0E, almost 60 NM east of forecast. This is around the difference between landfall near Tokyo and completely missing land to the east.

Weakening should begin in about 12 hours' time.

Quote:
WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 20 NAUTICAL MILE (NM) EYE, PROVIDING
GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION PLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EYE IS SHOWING TROCHOIDAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HRS. A 091619Z
AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DISPLAYS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, HOWEVER THE CIMSS M-
PERC PRODUCT IS NOT INDICATING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140
KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A 090835Z SMAP IMAGE
(40 KM RESOLUTION) WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS OF 128 KTS (1-MINUTE
AVERAGE) THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. STY 20W HAS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW; THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING FURTHER
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE,
THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
WARM SST (29C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 20W IS
CURRENTLY WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER A SHIFT FROM A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT-C AND SMAP DATA--THIS DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE GALE WIND FIELD.
B. STY 20W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36

WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. STY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, STY 20W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12 AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
INTERFERE WITH OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT BUT POOR ALONG-TRACK SPEED AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER JAPAN, WEAKENING THE STR AND
ALLOWING STY 20W TO BEGIN RECURVING. STY 20W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IN THIS PORTION OF THE
TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, SSTS WILL DROP
BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM SKIRTING HONSHU
WILL DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE, AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE WEST, ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. STY 20W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 84 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND GAINS STRONG FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT AFTER RECURVATURE OF STY 20W. HOWEVER, AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES THROUGH
TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. BASED ON THE VARIATION
IN MODEL TIMING OF THE RECURVE AND ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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09-10-2019, 22:44   #34
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Latest wv

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09-10-2019, 22:57   #35
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Iwo Jima, that first island around 190 NM to the northeast of the eye in the image below, is getting pretty windy now. Mean speed southeasterly 46, gusting 74 knots.

Quote:
METAR RJAW 092100Z 12046G74KT 3500 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 OVC010 27/24 Q0990 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 8CU010 A2924=

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 09-10-2019 at 23:03.
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10-10-2019, 07:24   #36
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Back on Northwesterly track and England France off.
Also New Zealand Italy....denying Italy (a 71-3 loss)

Irelands match will escape
Scotland being monitored
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10-10-2019, 07:51   #37
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It got worse on Iwo Jima. Gusta up to 94 knots

https://www.ogimet.com/display_metar...f=59&send=send

Quote:
METAR RJAW 100600Z 14055G94KT 1600 SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 OVC010 25/24 Q0977 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 8CU010 A2888=

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 10-10-2019 at 08:02.
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10-10-2019, 08:58   #38
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What's the chances of this actually affecting the Scotland game?
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10-10-2019, 09:25   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donegal Storm View Post
What's the chances of this actually affecting the Scotland game?
Storm will be well gone but if it causes lots of damage to transport etc then it will be cancelled. In fact, seeing as cancelling it puts Japan through as group winners I'd say the organisers will be only too delighted to do this! Italy have already been knocked out due to a match cancellation (they had a theoretical chance of going through still) so the precedent is now there. If I was Scotland I would be very, very afraid....
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10-10-2019, 10:00   #40
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Just looking at the latest guidance (below), it looks to me as though:-

- this could still affect (but not cancel) the Irish match (see discussion on the yellow circle on the map below)
- it looks to me as though when they are making a call on the Japan v Scotland match (6 hours before at latest) there could still be a decent wind blowing in Yokohama which must heighten risk of cancellation if the main part of the storm (landing ca. 24 hours before the match starts) is very strong and causes damage
- Just comparing the latest guidance with the track predicted last night, there looks to me as though there has been a pronounced shift west in the predicted track. The further west it tracks the more it could affect the Ireland match and the later it arrives in Tokyo (heightening the risk of the Scotland game being cancelled)

On the chart below the times are UTC (same time as Ireland right now) so Japanese times are +9 hours. Thus you can see that at 6am UTC on Saturday (3pm Japanese time) the storm is approaching Japan. At that stage, crudely, it is about 500km from Fukuoka where Ireland are playing at, I think, 8.45pm Japanese time. It then moves north east along the coast towards Tokyo / Yokohama and away from the Ireland match. Thus it should be 750km+ from the Irish match by kick off. Any further correction west in the track, or slowing down of its arrival time, could lead to a fair bit of wind and rain for the Irish match though. Not sure if there is a roof in the Fukuoka stadium?

Current landfall near Tokyo seems to be slated for, crudely, 12 noon UTC / 9pm Japanese time on Saturday night. Looking at the diamater of the red cone (denoting the areas that can expect 50 nkot+ winds) and the diameter of the yellow circle (showing areas that can expect 30 Knot+ winds), it looks as though the winds may not abate below 30 Knots in the Tokyo area until the early afternoon on the Sunday, with the Japan v Scotland match kicking off at 8.45pm local time.

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10-10-2019, 15:51   #41
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Impressive size!

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10-10-2019, 16:10   #42
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Video of Typhoon over last 5 days:

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/st...097561089?s=20
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10-10-2019, 16:39   #43
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Latest update below. Track seems a little further east so can't see this having any effect at all on Irish match. Still a direct hit for Tokyo area with landfall ca. 9pm local time on Saturday night with gusts of 120 knots (thats 222km) at that time. That's serious stuff. Will be clear of Tokyo by the time of the Japan v Scotland the following night, but not that long clear and there is bound to be a lot of debris etc around. I'd say much more likely to be cancelled than not if this chart comes to pass....

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10-10-2019, 16:48   #44
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Not at all fair on the Scots if it comes to pass. But that's a discussion for the rugby forum.

Is this typhoon of relatively unprecedented strength or common enough power?
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10-10-2019, 16:52   #45
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Poor Iwo Jima's still getting battered by gusts up to 90 knots, and that's been going on for almost 24 hours (since 20Z yesterday).

Quote:
METAR RJAW 101500Z 17050G79KT 3200 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 BKN010 26/25 Q0985 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 7CU010 A2911=
METAR RJAW 101200Z 17057G90KT 2000 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 OVC010 25/24 Q0982 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 8CU010 A2902=
Latest track has it landfalling at 85 knots somewhere near Shimoda at 12Z on Saturday. Interaction with land should weaken it a bit before it hits Tokyo proper.

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