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Property Market 2016

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24567…62

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    #32
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Villa05 wrote: »
    From that report, prices stalled in the final quarter everywhere. Going to be an interesting 2016

    I'm particularly interested to see what happens with Galway prices- whatever about a few select districts in Dublin being at stupid levels- the norm in Galway appears to be completely bizarre prices- justified solely by lack of supply.......

    Anyhow- it will be the end of March/beginning of April- before we get clarity on Q4 2015. Damn CSO and their rolling averages........


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    #33
    El_Dangeroso
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭El_Dangeroso


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I'm particularly interested to see what happens with Galway prices- whatever about a few select districts in Dublin being at stupid levels- the norm in Galway appears to be completely bizarre prices- justified solely by lack of supply.......

    Me too! It's f-ing mental down here! You'd swear we had tonnes of jobs or something!

    Looking forward to the first big O'Donnellan and Joyce auction on the 5th March, that's always a good litmus test for the market.


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    #34
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Galway city is a very bizarre case caused by appalling infrastructure and planning designed to enforce Dublin level quality of life issues on a town smaller than Limerick.


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    #35
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    gaius c wrote: »
    Galway city is a very bizarre case caused by appalling infrastructure and planning designed to enforce Dublin level quality of life issues on a town smaller than Limerick.


    Galway is a more attractive place to live than Limerick might also be noted


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    #36
    Sono
    Registered Users Posts: 2,383 ✭✭✭Sono


    Currently in the market for a house in Dublin and this thread has me more confused than I was before I read it!

    Have the deposit saved and mortgage approved just don't want to buy and then see a huge drop in prices, I wish someone could just tell me the right time to buy! Then there's the interest rates if they drop and houses prices drop I'll be sick altogether! I have enquired about a lot of houses lately and the majority have been sale agreed which was frustrating to say the least.

    Having checked out house prices on the price register in areas of interest for us some of them estates are selling for 80k more than 5 years ago, absolutely sickening.


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    #37
    Darkest Horse
    Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭Darkest Horse


    Sono wrote: »
    Currently in the market for a house in Dublin and this thread has me more confused than I was before I read it!

    Have the deposit saved and mortgage approved just don't want to buy and then see a huge drop in prices, I wish someone could just tell me the right time to buy! Then there's the interest rates if they drop and houses prices drop I'll be sick altogether! I have enquired about a lot of houses lately and the majority have been sale agreed which was frustrating to say the least.

    Having checked out house prices on the price register in areas of interest for us some of them estates are selling for 80k more than 5 years ago, absolutely sickening.

    This is not five years ago, it is now and nobody can tell you when to buy based on predicted market activity. In any case what do you care if the value rises or falls if you'll be living in the place? It's just a paper value and means nothing unless you are likely to flip the house again in time.


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    #38
    Sono
    Registered Users Posts: 2,383 ✭✭✭Sono


    I am well aware it is not 5 years ago but I think it's good to get an idea of what it has been worth, well I think it is anyway clearly you don't.

    In relation to the house price I don't want to buy a house that is worth 50k less in a years time thanks very much, it's a gamble I am well aware of that and I am also allowed to have concerns about one of the biggest decisions I will ever make.


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    #39
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    handlemaster wrote:
    Galway is a more attractive place to live than Limerick might also be noted

    It may well be, but with the higher incomes and much lower property prices. Limerick is home of the smart people enjoying a much higher quality of life


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    #40
    AsianDub
    Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭AsianDub


    The problem is not just the low volume of stock but also the low quality of the stock. I agree with the CB rules, I really do.I think they are a good thing but after the deposit theres not much left for repairs and renovations. I'm sale agreed on a house and got an architect and builder in to look at it. I'm not looking for anything too fancy, bit of a kitchen extension and it needs rewiring, new heating system, insulation, painting and decorating, a full refurb really and I'll have to sink another 80k+ into it to make it decent.


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    #41
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Sono wrote: »
    I am well aware it is not 5 years ago but I think it's good to get an idea of what it has been worth, well I think it is anyway clearly you don't.

    In relation to the house price I don't want to buy a house that is worth 50k less in a years time thanks very much, it's a gamble I am well aware of that and I am also allowed to have concerns about one of the biggest decisions I will ever make.


    You will be the forever the fence sitter so im afraid there will never be a guarantee with property.


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    #42
    DublinDilbert
    Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    Sono wrote: »
    I am well aware it is not 5 years ago but I think it's good to get an idea of what it has been worth, well I think it is anyway clearly you don't.

    In relation to the house price I don't want to buy a house that is worth 50k less in a years time thanks very much, it's a gamble I am well aware of that and I am also allowed to have concerns about one of the biggest decisions I will ever make.

    Supply is still quite low, if you choose the right property I can't see a 50k fall or anything close to that. Of course it is possible to pay too much for a property, then in a years time it could be worth 50k less.

    You need to do your home work, the property price register is great for that. I know of houses selling in Dublin currently for approx 200k, which is less half the boom price and is 50k less than a batch sold for in 2011/2012. So they have fallen since 2011/2012.

    Btw a drop of €50k is nothing major, when you look at the cost to buy land and build a house. The 50k could easily be used up between architects, engineers, planning permission, leavies, compliance, solicitors....


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    #43
    jjwada
    Registered Users Posts: 26 ✭jjwada


    Im convinced a downturn is on the way.
    I was all set to buy 3 years ago and decided to wait for another while and then it rockets.
    So now I have my deposit saved and will wait another while.
    Too scared to jump right now.


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    #44
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Galway is a more attractive place to live than Limerick might also be noted

    Not if you're trying to commute into it and cross the Corrib on a daily basis. I was flabbergasted at how bad it is. It's like somebody deliberately tried to engineer the worst traffic snarl up they could manage in a fairly small town.


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    #45
    El_Dangeroso
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭El_Dangeroso


    gaius c wrote: »
    Not if you're trying to commute into it and cross the Corrib on a daily basis. I was flabbergasted at how bad it is. It's like somebody deliberately tried to engineer the worst traffic snarl up they could manage in a fairly small town.

    That's why on the Galway forum we always advise people to live on the same side of the corrib that they work on and is also the reason I can't buy a nice cheap new house in Knocknacarra! :)


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    #46
    bald_painter
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4 ✭bald_painter


    gaius c wrote: »
    Not if you're trying to commute into it and cross the Corrib on a daily basis. I was flabbergasted at how bad it is. It's like somebody deliberately tried to engineer the worst traffic snarl up they could manage in a fairly small town.

    i think the galway property market is more expensive than the dublin market when you consider how small galway is and how reliant it is on a handful of multinationals plus tourism ( limerick also has a large student population so galway isnt distinct in this way ) , not to mention the truly awful climate

    to give it its due however , its everyones darling , everyone loves galway


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    #47
    bald_painter
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4 ✭bald_painter


    Villa05 wrote: »
    It may well be, but with the higher incomes and much lower property prices. Limerick is home of the smart people enjoying a much higher quality of life

    while certain parts of limerick are well off , the city has poverty black spots which rival inner city dublin , nowhere in galway is as destitute , overall , there is far far more wealth in galway city than in limerick city and property prices reflect this

    limerick is a failure economically relatively speaking where as galway is an astounding success considering how small it is and how few people live in galway county and the connacht region


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    #48
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    El_Dangeroso wrote: »
    That's why on the Galway forum we always advise people to live on the same side of the corrib that they work on and is also the reason I can't buy a nice cheap new house in Knocknacarra! :)

    Living in east Galway versus a Limerick commuter town?
    Think Limerick wins that one tbf.


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    #49
    bald_painter
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4 ✭bald_painter


    gaius c wrote: »
    Living in east Galway versus a Limerick commuter town?
    Think Limerick wins that one tbf.

    outside the city of galway , there are no decent towns of any kind until you get to athlone or ennis and ennis is closer to limerick


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    #50
    El_Dangeroso
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭El_Dangeroso


    gaius c wrote: »
    Living in east Galway versus a Limerick commuter town?
    Think Limerick wins that one tbf.

    Hence why I want to live in the city, but that's becoming increasingly less likely.

    Just lost in another bidding war where price went 40K over asking. Stop the property market I want to get off. :(


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    #51
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    jjwada wrote: »
    Im convinced a downturn is on the way.
    I was all set to buy 3 years ago and decided to wait for another while and then it rockets.
    So now I have my deposit saved and will wait another while.
    Too scared to jump right now.

    How much have you spend in all this time waiting ?


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    #52
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    Sono wrote: »
    Currently in the market for a house in Dublin and this thread has me more confused than I was before I read it!

    Have the deposit saved and mortgage approved just don't want to buy and then see a huge drop in prices, I wish someone could just tell me the right time to buy! Then there's the interest rates if they drop and houses prices drop I'll be sick altogether! I have enquired about a lot of houses lately and the majority have been sale agreed which was frustrating to say the least.

    Having checked out house prices on the price register in areas of interest for us some of them estates are selling for 80k more than 5 years ago, absolutely sickening.

    Are you buying for a home for 10years+ or BTL?

    If its your home then once you can afford the repayments (stress tested) then go right ahead, once you're happy wtih the property.

    Prices are not going to drop in Dublin. Stagnate possibly, but not drop. Rents are still extremely high and getting higher, employment going well, and confidence returning to the economy overall. Supply in Dublin is no where near the demand, so why would prices drop?


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    #53
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    bald_painter wrote: »
    outside the city of galway , there are no decent towns of any kind until you get to athlone or ennis and ennis is closer to limerick

    That's pretty much my point. Have a few friends living in Adare and Munster coach Anthony Foley commutes in from Killaloe. There's no comparable nice towns within reasonable commuting distance of Galway.
    And for budget options, you have Shannon and Nenagh.

    Oranmore?
    Gort?
    Urgh...well at least they are budget options

    Galway city is grand if you can afford to live in just the right location but if you can't, your quality of life is adversely impacted by issues completely out of scale with a city of it's size.


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    #54
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    handlemaster wrote: »
    How much have you spend in all this time waiting ?

    Some people will never get off the fence!

    Facts are that unless you want to live with your mammy and daddy for life, the likelihood is that you'll pay for a roof over your head.

    If paying he bank is less/same than paying a landlord and you can afford it, then why not buy? unless you plan on buying and selling regularly ups and downs in the property market won't effect you in the slightest.


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    #55
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    SarahMollie wrote: »
    Some people will never get off the fence!

    Facts are that unless you want to live with your mammy and daddy for life, the likelihood is that you'll pay for a roof over your head.

    If paying he bank is less/same than paying a landlord and you can afford it, then why not buy? unless you plan on buying and selling regularly ups and downs in the property market won't effect you in the slightest.


    Agreed.. After a few years you forget what you paid.


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    #56
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    The Central Bank said they will look at rte deposit situation for first time buyers in the summer.might have an affect on some. .


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    #57
    mcbert
    Registered Users Posts: 460 ✭✭mcbert


    handlemaster wrote: »
    The Central Bank said they will look at rte deposit situation for first time buyers in the summer.might have an affect on some. .

    Yep, by pushing up prices (assuming they relax it a bit, of course)


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    #58
    Michael D Not Higgins
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 7,223 Mod ✭✭✭✭Michael D Not Higgins


    mcbert wrote: »
    Yep, by pushing up prices (assuming they relax it a bit, of course)

    That doesn't make sense, if someone has x amount of income then they can only borrow 3.5x max. If they need 10% deposit then the max house price is 3.88x.

    If they need less than a 10% deposit (let's say 5%), then the max house price they can get is 3.68x, less than before.

    This doesn't preclude them from saving more but allows them to enter the market at a lower value.


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    #59
    mcbert
    Registered Users Posts: 460 ✭✭mcbert


    Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »
    That doesn't make sense, if someone has x amount of income then they can only borrow 3.5x max. If they need 10% deposit then the max house price is 3.88x.

    If they need less than a 10% deposit (let's say 5%), then the max house price they can get is 3.68x, less than before.

    This doesn't preclude them from saving more but allows them to enter the market at a lower value.

    I meant the x3.5 factor being increased.

    Yes, I didnt read the earlier comment properly. They looking at the deposit only? Ok, my bad.


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    #60
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »
    That doesn't make sense, if someone has x amount of income then they can only borrow 3.5x max. If they need 10% deposit then the max house price is 3.88x.

    If they need less than a 10% deposit (let's say 5%), then the max house price they can get is 3.68x, less than before.

    This doesn't preclude them from saving more but allows them to enter the market at a lower value.

    You're only considering the deposit aspect.

    What if they increase the salary multiple to 4x or allow the banks greater scope for exceptions?

    I think they will tweak it slightly, but I think some sort of mechanism to calm the market is here to stay. Irish ppl are just too fascinated with owning property so I think if left unchecked, as soon as theres money in the economy, prices will surge if left alone.


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    #61
    Michael D Not Higgins
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 7,223 Mod ✭✭✭✭Michael D Not Higgins


    mcbert wrote: »
    I meant the x3.5 factor being increased.

    But handlemaster mentioned the deposit situation not the income ratio...

    Nonetheless, any change in the LTV is unlikely to affect first time buyers, it's the LTI that's the limiting factor for affordability and there's no way the CBI is willing to allow the LTI to increase again when the rules are doing what they are supposed to up until now.

    The market is not what the Central Bank are interested in, merely the exposure to debt of the individuals and the banks at large, although they're aware of what will happen if they change any of the rules one way or the other. I'd say the most likely change (if they were to make one) would be to allow an increase in LTI for a proportional decrease in LTV for first time buyers, e.g. a sliding scale from 5% 3x to 10% 3.5x to 20% 4x.

    This would offset some risk of additional borrowing with higher stake in the property but also allow a lower deposit at the bottom of the market. Feel free to punch holes in this idea!


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