Property Market 2016

Michael D Not Higgins

field_marshall wrote: »

china is slowing , china was the only region of the world with growth significant enough to keep things afloat this past fifteen years , the usa is not growing anymore than 3% at best and europe is both not growing and is looking very weak for the future , brazil is in an outright depression , global growth going forward is not looking very hot

how ireland is remaining immune from international factors right now is a complete mystery to me , the uk looks like its slowing too

My point is that the demand is not what's driving the oil price. The Saudis basically run OPEC and won't cut supply for their own interests. They can ride out the low return for oil in the short term in order to advance their own agenda.

The price that oil is getting shouldn't be used as an economic metric because the supply and demand curve is controlled by too few players.

field_marshall

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

My point is that the demand is not what's driving the oil price. The Saudis basically run OPEC and won't cut supply for their own interests. They can ride out the low return for oil in the short term in order to advance their own agenda.

The price that oil is getting shouldn't be used as an economic metric because the supply and demand curve is controlled by too few players.

how come oil was $150 per barrell in 2011 when the global economy was in worse shape than it is today

Michael D Not Higgins

field_marshall wrote: »

how come oil was $150 per barrell in 2011 when the global economy was in worse shape than it is today

Does that not support my point?

fad460

field_marshall wrote: »

how come oil was $150 per barrell in 2011 when the global economy was in worse shape than it is today

The price of oil per barrel was $10 in 2009. I don't think it was "$150" in 2011.

Shedite27

How did this chat get merged in here? Might as well merge in the Euro 2016 travel plans too - I'm sure that will impact the Property Market too with people either spending their money on that and nobody viewing houses in June!

koheim

fad460 wrote: »

The price of oil per barrel was $10 in 2009. I don't think it was "$150" in 2011.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

gaius c

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

But it's not low demand it's high supply. OPEC and specifically the Saudis are trying to put shale oil out of business.

It's a factor. Demand for all raw materials has fallen through the floor. Baltic dry and Harpex indices are very low. Global trade is extremely sluggish and there's no real demand or consumption anywhere.

Michael D Not Higgins

gaius c wrote: »

It's a factor. Demand for all raw materials has fallen through the floor. Baltic dry and Harpex indices are very low. Global trade is extremely sluggish and there's no real demand or consumption anywhere.

True it's a factor, but I think the higher output is a bigger factor than the recent slump. OPEC's numbers suggest about 1% growth over 2015 worldwide in oil consumption (might be negative to them when we consider domestic US supply). Their growth in production over 2015 was also 4-5%.

How this would affect house prices I don't know. Probably not much. Maybe people would be spending less on energy and have more to save for a deposit and buy sooner.

field_marshall

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Does that not support my point?

my point is that for political reasons , oil production was ramped up

field_marshall

gaius c wrote: »

It's a factor. Demand for all raw materials has fallen through the floor. Baltic dry and Harpex indices are very low. Global trade is extremely sluggish and there's no real demand or consumption anywhere.

copper prices etc have fallen just as much as oil , saudi arabia has nothing to do with that commodity , copper is driving the south african rand through the floor

Sono

Houses very slow to the market since the new year, very little if anything going up daily in the areas we are looking to buy, quite frustrating. Anyone else notice it's gone very quiet or is it simply the areas I am looking?

Alter_Ego

Sono wrote: »

Houses very slow to the market since the new year, very little if anything going up daily in the areas we are looking to buy, quite frustrating. Anyone else notice it's gone very quiet or is it simply the areas I am looking?

Definitely very few houses coming to the market anywhere in Dublin. It's quite frustrating indeed

athtrasna

Shedite27 wrote: »

How did this chat get merged in here? Might as well merge in the Euro 2016 travel plans too - I'm sure that will impact the Property Market too with people either spending their money on that and nobody viewing houses in June!

Mod note

It didn't get merged in here, the economy chat started in here. On that note, posters this is a property market thread, please focus your posts on that, thanks.

El_Dangeroso

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Definitely very few houses coming to the market anywhere in Dublin. It's quite frustrating indeed

Yep nothing coming up at all in Galway either. It's the time of year though, the easter season is early this year so would expect the selling season to kick off around then.

TiNcAn

Is there such a thing as selling season? And is it different across the country?
I would be interested in knowing this and stats to back this up would be even better.

flintash

i'd say slow coming of stock down in Cork as well. I would thought its full affect of "new" rules coming in full swing, plus banks governors words last week didnt help either - saying rules will be reviewed in the summer.

El_Dangeroso

TiNcAn wrote: »

Is there such a thing as selling season? And is it different across the country?
I would be interested in knowing this and stats to back this up would be even better.

I don't have stats (and am too lazy to find any) but there are two main selling 'seasons'

1. Spring/Early summer - the idea being sale closed and settled into new house before kids start school. Also performing renovations and redecorating much more pleasant in summer time

2. September/Early October - people want to be settled and moved in before Christmas.

This bears out my experience the past 2 years of searching.

Sono

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Definitely very few houses coming to the market anywhere in Dublin. It's quite frustrating indeed

I had to check my email alerts were active from daft today as I was sure they were off, that's how few emails I'm getting! Frustrating as hell

The_Conductor

Alter_Ego wrote: »

Definitely very few houses coming to the market anywhere in Dublin. It's quite frustrating indeed

From talking to a few local EAs- most of their stock- is stuff that was sale agreed before Christmas- that has now officially fallen through. Any estate agents I've been talking to since last Tuesday (Lucan area) are very very worried. Its a combination of factors- but largely- people have bid properties up to levels that they imagine they can get mortgages for- but are subsequently finding this is not the case (despite having pre-approvals in place etc).

Its a mess- and its getting worse.

quadrifoglio verde

The_Conductor wrote: »

From talking to a few local EAs- most of their stock- is stuff that was sale agreed before Christmas- that has now officially fallen through. Any estate agents I've been talking to since last Tuesday (Lucan area) are very very worried. Its a combination of factors- but largely- people have bid properties up to levels that they imagine they can get mortgages for- but are subsequently finding this is not the case (despite having pre-approvals in place etc).

Its a mess- and its getting worse.

Which should point to house prices falling shouldn't it?
Due to the exemptions I thought id see the price rising in q1 and q2 and then plateauing for 3 and 4.
I'd have thought the best time to sell is q1 and 2 due to people able to get exemptions to the rules but if supply is that bad, then Christ it's going to get worse throuhout the year or sellers have missed the boat and will put properties on in q3 and q4 causing prices to fall

This Crystal ball gazing is brilliant

mel123

Sono wrote: »

Houses very slow to the market since the new year, very little if anything going up daily in the areas we are looking to buy, quite frustrating. Anyone else notice it's gone very quiet or is it simply the areas I am looking?

Definitely. Little or nothing coming in on the email alerts I have set up. Its hard to know whats going on - is it the new rules, are sellers hoping property prices are going to rise, have people just settled in their house now with a view to doing some refurb and staying there. So many reasons.

Personally I think its the new rules playing a big part.

sunnyday1234

mel123 wrote: »

Definitely. Little or nothing coming in on the email alerts I have set up. Its hard to know whats going on - is it the new rules, are sellers hoping property prices are going to rise, have people just settled in their house now with a view to doing some refurb and staying there. So many reasons.

Personally I think its the new rules playing a big part.

The rules will be abolished in the summer and ye will get your housing boom then again

Alkers

I don't think that's on the cards?

Zenify

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

The rules will be abolished in the summer and ye will get your housing boom then again

I don't see the rules being abolished, possibly tweaked but that's about it.

Zenify

If NAMA have to build 20,000 new homes by 2020 they should start coming onto the market soon right? so 2016 must get a proportion of these?

Alter_Ego

The_Conductor wrote: »

From talking to a few local EAs- most of their stock- is stuff that was sale agreed before Christmas- that has now officially fallen through. Any estate agents I've been talking to since last Tuesday (Lucan area) are very very worried. Its a combination of factors- but largely- people have bid properties up to levels that they imagine they can get mortgages for- but are subsequently finding this is not the case (despite having pre-approvals in place etc).

Its a mess- and its getting worse.

Why would the banks be giving someone pre-approval for a higher amount than the actual mortgage? This makes no sense, drives the prices up and results in no business for them in the end.

Re stock - I have been watching the property sites for nearly a year now, possibly a bit more and there are quite a few properties that disappear and later come back. Feels like groundhog day.

Zenify

Zenify wrote: »

I don't see the rules being abolished, possibly tweaked but that's about it.

I seriously doubt it. The new guv'nor would lose all credibility with his peers.

In the interview with the Irish Times he really doesn't suggest that they need to be changed much if at all. He just says it's too soon to assess their impact but when a full year's worth of data is in they'll have a look. Of course, they will - it would be weird to introduce a new policy and not assess the impact.

That Irish Times article mentioned the impact on first-time buyers in Dublin but, in fact, there were already concessions for FTBs and it would be mad to introduce some kind of Dublin-exception - it would only exacerbate the decoupling of the capital and the rest of the country.

Alter_Ego

Deleted User wrote: »

I seriously doubt it. The new guv'nor would lose all credibility with his peers.

In the interview with the Irish Times he really doesn't suggest that they need to be changed much if at all. He just says it's too soon to assess their impact but when a full year's worth of data is in they'll have a look. Of course, they will - it would be weird to introduce a new policy and not assess the impact.

That Irish Times article mentioned the impact on first-time buyers in Dublin but, in fact, there were already concessions for FTBs and it would be mad to introduce some kind of Dublin-exception - it would only exacerbate the decoupling of the capital and the rest of the country.

That's how I read it too, but in my view:

1. There are exceptions - up to 15%. That should be abolished. It's either is a rule that applies or it doesn't.
2. The 220k threshold is unfair on Dublin residents as it doesn't apply to such extent in much of the rest of the country because prices are generally lower
3. The 20% deposit is unnecessary and should probably be tweaked. Why don't just have 10% across the board? You're still limited by LTI ratios, so why requiring such large deposits? 20% locks second time buyers into their existing properties, constraining supply.

sunnyday1234

Simona1986 wrote: »

I don't think that's on the cards?

they are to be "reviewed" . With election coming up , i would bet that they will be abolished or seriously weakened. No central bank will stand against the kind of pressure that will be exerted on them by the govt in order to win votes

highgiant1985

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

they are to be "reviewed" . With election coming up , i would bet that they will be abolished or seriously weakened. No central bank will stand against the kind of pressure that will be exerted on them by the govt in order to win votes

The election has to be held no later than 8 April 2018 so will be well over before any change to these rules.

Any changes to these rules won't come until the summer or later - Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-to-review-mortgage-rules-says-governor-1.2488855