Cheltenham betting strategies

carq · 02-03-2015 12:49pm #1

Last year I had quite a bit on Ante post in various guises. Had multiple lucky 15’s, doubles, Trebles etc.
Ended up having about 3 horses in each race so I wasn’t sure who I was shouting for at the finish line! Also don’t think I broke even on any L15 over the festival.

This year I plan on narrowing my bets to more heavy Singles and e/w bets and do a place pot every day for other horses.
Also not to listen to Tom Segal, he didn’t pick 1 winner last year!
Tuesday looks a day for sticking to the high street for money back offers, won’t be betting on the course.

What are your strategies for this year that you have learned the hard way ?

Shemale · 02-03-2015 1:10pm

I am planning betting using percentage of bank on betfair, I will set the percentages based on the chances I think the horse has.

Nothing finalised as I need to do figures later but might score in increments of 5% to a max of 20%.

Francie Barrett · 02-03-2015 1:16pm

carq wrote: »

What are your strategies for this year that you have learned the hard way ?

This is the answer you probably don't want to hear, but as a betting proposition, Cheltenham is a very hard way to make money. I am sure plenty of folks will correct me and tell me that they consistently make a packet, but from my experience (over 20 years of betting); the vast, vast majority of people end up losing dough (I include myself in that bracket).

Personally, I will do about 6-8 ante-post bets before hand, a lucky 15 or two on the day, and them a few singles on any horse that word comes through.

Hulk Hands · 02-03-2015 1:43pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

This is the answer you probably don't want to hear, but as a betting proposition, Cheltenham is a very hard way to make money. I am sure plenty of folks will correct me and tell me that they consistently make a packet, but from my experience (over 20 years of betting); the vast, vast majority of people end up losing dough (I include myself in that bracket).

Personally, I will do about 6-8 ante-post bets before hand, a lucky 15 or two on the day, and them a few singles on any horse that word comes through.

Ah c'mon, Cheltenham is like Christmas. The easiest time of the year to make dough.

Every morning, especially Tuesday, blantant arbs on plenty of horse. Less than 100% books on all the big races. Loads of bad e/w races, and bookies paying 1/4 odds on said races. Extra places such as 4 or 5 places on the Supreme. Silly offers like money back this or that. And best of all, you can usually get the bets you want on regardless of your stakes, i.e you wont get knocked back. It's heaven

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-03-2015 1:56pm

Pin newspaper to wall

Throw 3 darts

Profit

Gavin "shels" · 02-03-2015 2:16pm

I'll start on Day 1 with a few hundred quid, with a hope to double it. Go from there.

Will be cutting down on multiples this year, aside from my Annie Power/UDS one!

handsfree2 · 02-03-2015 2:51pm

I'll try to be less dogmatic in my opinion and take some columnists opinions on board, probably Kevin Blake, nick mordin and Rory delgary from the Irish field

posturingpat · 02-03-2015 3:03pm

Single bets e/w if you're serious. But it's Cheltenham so Lucky 15's and the like have to be done for fun for me anyway :pac: Not really my bests normally but Cheltenhams about the entertainment for me rather than being an out and out profit making exercise.

Shemale · 02-03-2015 3:10pm

Last year was my worst festival with €600 profit, but that was all down to Windermere and Savello.

I was betting % bank and lost my knackers on Annie Power was going to put MOT in as cover but broke my rules and myself and doubled my max on the mare. Had I kept going I would have been in a much better financial place at the end of it.

supremenovice · 02-03-2015 3:53pm

Last year, I done 'follow the jockey' with Aidan Coleman.
No wins, no places.

Suffice to say, Ill be abandoning that strategy this year, which means he will
romp in on a 66/1 shot in one of the handicaps.

Moon Dice · 02-03-2015 9:01pm

Shemale wrote: »

Last year was my worst festival with €600 profit, but that was all down to Windermere and Savello.

I was betting % bank and lost my knackers on Annie Power was going to put MOT in as cover but broke my rules and myself and doubled my max on the mare. Had I kept going I would have been in a much better financial place at the end of it.

Your worst festival was €600 profit??

longshotvalue · 02-03-2015 10:03pm

On course myself and my brother go every year, and pick one each for each race and split winnings. It a great way to even out luck etc, and we've being going 8-years only loosing 1 so far (Boston Bob:mad:).. I think we've had a bit too many big priced winners to be reasonable but hopefully it continues..

2 Opinions is better than 1..

boomtown84 · 02-03-2015 10:44pm

aidankkk wrote: »

On course myself and my brother go every year, and pick one each for each race and split winnings. It a great way to even out luck etc, and we've being going 8-years only loosing 1 so far (Boston Bob:mad:).. I think we've had a bit too many big priced winners to be reasonable but hopefully it continues..

2 Opinions is better than 1..

Only down 1 year from 8? Nice!

Howjoe1 · 02-03-2015 10:46pm

A lot of Punters try to convince themselves they won even when they lost.

Profits at Cheltenham are scarce.

irish_major · 02-03-2015 10:46pm

Shemale wrote: »

Last year was my worst festival with €600 profit, but that was all down to Windermere and Savello.

I was betting % bank and lost my knackers on Annie Power was going to put MOT in as cover but broke my rules and myself and doubled my max on the mare. Had I kept going I would have been in a much better financial place at the end of it.

Will be following you blind this year, along with everyone on the forum, tom segal and hugh taylor

Chesty08 · 02-03-2015 10:51pm

€600 profit - what would you consider a 5% stake Shemale?

Aidankk, you tipped up VeryWood here last year. Got stuck in work and never got around to doing a cover bet! What you fancy this year?

longshotvalue · 02-03-2015 10:56pm

Chesty08 wrote: »

€600 profit - what would you consider a 5% stake Shemale?

Aidankk, you tipped up VeryWood here last year. Got stuck in work and never got around to doing a cover bet! What you fancy this year?

i have a good few up already in my other tread, ill be putting them all in a longshotvalue at cheltenham tread shortly..

I don't think ill put up anymore before the first day..

Duke of Lucca, Wicklow Brave, Tiger Roll, Bobs Worth, Jezki, Cue Card, and a few more antepost..

Shemale · 02-03-2015 11:13pm

Moon Dice wrote: »

Your worst festival was €600 profit??

Yeah I am only punting about 6 years but am normally in 4 figures and have hit 5 figures once, could have made serious money in accumulators, Fridays I absolutely spark it just depends on how good/ bad the first few days were.

My second year punting on the Friday after a lousy week and being down to €50 I had Barizan ew (second 33/1), dutched Denman (8/1) and Imperial Commander(20/1, 16/1, 12/1 8/1) ew, Baby Run (9/2), Pause and Clause (14/1) and Pigeon Island (33/1).

Two years ago I had Our Conor (4/1), Ted Veale (12/1), Salsify (3/1, 11/4), Bobs Worth (11/4), Salubrious (16/1) and Alderwood (3/1) dutched with (Kid Cassidy (12/1)

Shemale · 02-03-2015 11:15pm

aidankkk wrote: »

On course myself and my brother go every year, and pick one each for each race and split winnings. It a great way to even out luck etc, and we've being going 8-years only loosing 1 so far (Boston Bob:mad:).. I think we've had a bit too many big priced winners to be reasonable but hopefully it continues..

2 Opinions is better than 1..

If your brother is as good as you at finding them you will have a yacht each after this year.

Chesty08 · 02-03-2015 11:19pm

Here is an interesting strategy http://theparadering.blogspot.ie/2015/03/cheltenham-prep-runs-track-by-track.html

Shemale · 02-03-2015 11:40pm

Chesty08 wrote: »

€600 profit - what would you consider a 5% stake Shemale?

It all depends on the bank, using percentage of bank it could be any amount.

I am in a mire at the moment, can't find a winner since November, handed the bookies €150 this weekend when I should have just followed Aidan.

I am going Tuesday and Wednesday and have £450 for food, drink and betting so am very restricted at the start so need some luck to get rolling. I am €200 over my overdraft and might have to take the hit and deposit €100 and hope I do well again and all going well Un De Sceaux will have another €200 in my betfair account at 2.15pm on Tuesday and I can start from there.

If I start with €250, I could have 15 20% bets before running into minimum bet territory, I would have to be really sweet on a horse for a 20%, UDS would be one.

Gregk961 · 03-03-2015 12:06am

Definitely stick to singles, the penny dropped for me a couple of years ago regarding multiples. Nothing more frustrating than spending hours looking at form and throwing all the effort away by banging your selections into a lucky 15, such pitiful returns unless you get at least 3 up. Throw all your selections in a small accum if you fancy retirement odds, but singles are the way to consistent profit.

There is certainly money to be made backing e/w in the "banker" races, this year the Supreme, Arkle and Mares could all be very profitable not even accounting for the PP money back offers, its almost gift money this year. I've dipped into the W/o fav markets the last couple of years and have had a bit of success, especially going e/w, though im not sure about that market long term, the prices are usually fair and sometimes are actually quite a bit overpriced.

BumperD · 03-03-2015 3:27am

Shemale wrote: »

It all depends on the bank, using percentage of bank it could be any amount.

I am in a mire at the moment, can't find a winner since November, handed the bookies €150 this weekend when I should have just followed Aidan.

I am going Tuesday and Wednesday and have £450 for food, drink and betting so am very restricted at the start so need some luck to get rolling. I am €200 over my overdraft and might have to take the hit and deposit €100 and hope I do well again and all going well Un De Sceaux will have another €200 in my betfair account at 2.15pm on Tuesday and I can start from there.

If I start with €250, I could have 15 20% bets before running into minimum bet territory, I would have to be really sweet on a horse for a 20%, UDS would be one.

That's when you started posting here :pac:

Shemale · 03-03-2015 9:04am

BumperD wrote: »

That's when you started posting here :pac:

I will be back the end of March :pac:

Just haven't had the time to study the form as much as I have previously.

Have an interview this morning and training course Wed - Fri, but I am offically on my holidays :cool:

bit of a bogey · 03-03-2015 11:36pm

Personally I'm not a fan of doubles. Majority of the time, I'd rather back the first horse, win or lose, then re-asses things and back the second horse.

UnitedIrishman · 04-03-2015 2:43am

Only betting strategy I've had is find the best offers with bookies for certain races (plan on using a 100% bonus offer with 365 this week to give me something to play with - use a reasonable amount on UDS and AP on first day to get through the rollover limit, will see on the day).

And for everything else I use Betfair, mainly because of their prices on the major handicaps. Prefer to go with 2-3 horses in the win market for some of the prices at small money (I'm not by any means a massive punter) rather than having 1 horse EW at much smaller odds with some of the firms in the big field races. It's served me well through the years.

Biggest mistake I made was when Hurricane Fly lost the Champion Hurdle in 2012. Was too pot committed to him winning - had convinced my naive self that there was no way he could lose - and had a pittance to work with in the Wednesday. Managed to rescue it on the Wednesday (would have been a brilliant day if I wasn't working with bugger all money), Thursday and Friday to be ahead when finished up.

BumperD · 04-03-2015 2:51am

I set aside a pot of money for the week. Then narrow down a few horses to back. I will then back them ew and wrapped in a couple of each way doubles. About 80% of my money will go on 2-3 horses. The other 20% gets wagered on a few small bets during the 4 days if I see something of interest or else stays in my pocket.

I never get sucked into the day one bankers. I tend to avoid Thursday or keep wagers to a minimum, the most unpredictable day with Venetia 33/1 shots popping up out of nowhere on ladies day

Deco99 · 04-03-2015 5:28pm

aidankkk wrote: »

i have a good few up already in my other tread, ill be putting them all in a longshotvalue at cheltenham tread shortly..

I don't think ill put up anymore before the first day..

Duke of Lucca, Wicklow Brave, Tiger Roll, Bobs Worth, Jezki, Cue Card, and a few more antepost..

Any of these bets you'd change your mind on since putting on the bet? Aside from Cue Card.

longshotvalue · 04-03-2015 9:27pm

Deco99 wrote: »

Any of these bets you'd change your mind on since putting on the bet? Aside from Cue Card.

None, as is the norm with me i'm most confident about the Donkey Race, I think Duke of Lucca is great value at 8/1.. This race is very strong on year after year form and he was 4th last year and is much better of with Any Currency.. He is a sold 140 handicapper as well, similar to his stable mate Baltazar King..

The jock · 04-03-2015 9:31pm

The first day is the best day of the festival for betting. If you don't get any winners on the first day it will get harder and harder. There's more big field handicap races on the last two days. The Friday has 3 handicap races and a hunters chase. Not a good day to be chasing it. You need to have a great Tuesday and a decent Wednesday to have any chance of coming out with a good profit. You might think this is stupid but the placepot is the best bet on every day. Yeah I have my multiples and large single bets but I find the placepot very profitable. Low risk, high reward. I got one up 4 years back, 3,500 for 1 euro stake. Got 2 up last year but didn't pay as well haha.

diomed · 04-03-2015 11:05pm

no bet

Cheltenham betting strategies

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