[kindredspirit]

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.4 ___ 13.5 ___ -4.0 ___ 95 ___ 110 ___ 69

[Tae laidir]

Tae laidir __6.1__13.2__-4.6__95__90__72

[M.T. Cranium]

MTC __________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _ -4.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 78

NormaL _______ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 67

[Jpmarn]

Jpmarn __5.8__14.4__-5.5__105__105__72

[John mac]

john mac __5.5__13.7__-5.3__105__100__58

[Joe Public]

Joe Public__5.1__13.8__-6.9__89__109__64

Is it that time of the year already?

[adam240610]

Adam240610 __6__13.3__-4.4__100__90__68

[JCX BXC]

JCXBXC__6.6__15.0__-4.7__105__90__65

[BLIZZARD7]

BLIZZARD7 _______ 6.8 _ 15.3 _ -7.0 _ 105 _ 110 __ 75


Happy New Year to all !

[M.T. Cranium]

Welcome to the 2020 forecast contest ... we may get a few more entries but for now, this is the table of entries received. As noted in the original post, late penalties are cut in half for this month only. Even if you were to read this mid-day Thursday and enter, you would only be looking at a six point deduction instead of the normal 12 (at 1500h, after that, penalties will increase 1 point per hour). Welcome to esposito and WesternStorm, hope we do get some more new (to our contest) forecasters. For their benefit, I will mention that the table of entries runs from highest to lowest IMT predictions and where tied, from high MAX to lower MAX values, if still tied, same idea for MIN etc. Consensus is based on a median rather than a mean of the entries so that a few wildly different values don't have as much effect. Con Sensus has always been about a top five performer in our contests, rather hard for the math to be much different. Scoring is based on the following general concepts:

IMT max of 25, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
MAX and MIN score 20, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
PRC scores 15, deduct 1 pt per 3% error
SUN scores 10, deduct 1 pt per 5% error (rounded off, so within 2 scores 10, within 3-7 scores 9 etc)
BONUS question usually scores 10 and sometimes a point or two extra if you get very close to the right answer(s).

When regular scoring will be too low, scores revert to "minimum progression" which awards points on a rank-ordered scale from 1 under max to zero. There can be modified minimum progression if one forecaster's raw score is within 2 of the max, then the rest of the scores can only be boosted half as much from raw to progression so that the one accurate forecast is better rewarded relatively speaking. No minimum progression score will be lower than a raw score, sometimes a blend is the fair solution.

Table of Forecasts for January 2020


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (kn)

200motels __________ 6.9 _ 14.1 _-4.0 _ 107 _ 080 ____ 55

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) __ 6.8 _ 15.3 _-7.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 75

sryanbruen __________6.8 _ 15.1 _-4.0 _ 105 _ 080 ____ 60

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _-4.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 78

JCXBXC ______ (-2) __ 6.6 _ 15.0 _-4.7 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 65

Pauldry _____________6.5 _ 14.2 _-4.3 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 65

Artane2002 _________ 6.4 _ 15.1 _-3.7 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 59

esposito ____________ 6.2 _ 14.9 _-3.6 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 60

mickger844posts _____ 6.2 _ 14.1 _-3.8 _ 095 _ 080 ____ 57

Tae laidir ____________6.1 _ 13.2 _-4.6 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 72

Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 6.0 _ 13.3 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 68

Mrskinner ___________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _-5.9 _ 089 _ 099 ____ 69


___ Con Sensus ______ 5.9 _ 14.1 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 65


Jpmarn _____________ 5.8 _ 14.4 _-5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72

Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _-4.2 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 62

Rikand ______________5.5 _ 15.0 _-4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 75

Dacogawa ___________ 5.5 _ 14.4 _-6.3 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 67

john mac _____ (-2) ___5.5 _ 13.7 _-5.3 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 58

Bsal ________________ 5.5 _ 13.1 _-4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ____ 70

Kindred Spirit _________5.4 _ 13.5 _-4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 69


NormaL _____________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _-7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 67


Joe Public _____ (-2) ___5.1 _ 13.8 _-6.9 _ 089 _ 109 ____ 64

Dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 65

DOCARCH ____________5.0 _ 12.7 _-5.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 58

WesternStorm ________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _-4.0 _ 093 _ 097 ____ 60

______________________________________________-

The general consensus appears to be rather mild and near average for rain and sunshine, with a lack of apprehension for strong winds (only three of us went as high as 75 knots). Later entries will be added and Con Sensus may change as a result.

[waterways]

I thought I had posted. Must be age ....

[pauldry]

14.3c in 3 locations today but Pheonix may have got higher or Moore Park

Also saw gusts near 60 knots on reports so maybe a target gust has been set

[M.T. Cranium]

Originally Posted by waterways

I thought I had posted. Must be age ....

No worries, just jump back in next month and try to avoid two low scores, for most people I've noticed the first score to go is a really low one but the second score discarded in best 10/12 is often just a point or two below the next lowest.

So as long as you follow that pattern, missing one month just costs you a couple of points in the main contest.

[M.T. Cranium]

Just a heads up also, if anyone is following this month's thread and didn't notice, I posted historical scoring records from the entire decade in the December thread. Will be adding a few things to that going forward.

[Tae laidir]

Newport Furnace had a max of 14.4 yesterday.