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January 2020 Boards weather forecast contest -- new participants welcome

  • 29-12-2019 9:47pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    As we start a new contest year, this is the best month to get involved as a new or returning (to our contest) forecaster. We have a steady turnout of about 20 to 25 but we would welcome a larger field. The benefits for you would include the fun of competing and once you're involved, regular updates on the developing trends of each month. Okay then, here's the contest which will be unchanged in format from previous years.

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, predict the highest wind gust (knots) at any of the regularly reporting locations (those seen in "yesterday's weather" on the met.ie website). No date or location required. I have the link to that section here:

    https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations/yesterday

    _____________________

    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of January, with a relaxed penalty timetable for January. Normally we go with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time). But for January, the late penalties will be one point for every six hours to that same cutoff, after which 1 point per hour (in addition to 6 points accumulated to that time), but picking up to 2 points towards the end of the countdown to terminate at the usual time (0700h of the 6th). If a late entry gains any advantage on a specific portion of the contest, a further 5 point deduction may be applied (for example, correctly stating that a wind observation on the 2nd will be the monthly maximum in an entry timed after that observation).

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen__6.8__15.1__-4.0__105__80__60

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__6.5__14.2__-4.3_100__90__65


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal__5.5__13.1__-4.5__90__95__70


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3__5.8__13.8__-4.2__85__90__62


    Happy New Year everyone!


  • Registered Users Posts: 955 ✭✭✭ esposito


    esposito__6.2__14.9__-3.6__110__85__60


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels _6.9_14.1_-4.0_107_80__55


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH__5.0__12.7__-5.8__90__100__58


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Mrskinner______5.9__13.9__-5.9__89__99__69


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002__6.4__15.1__-3.7__85__90__59


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 5.5 ____ 15.0 ____ -4.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 75


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  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29__5.0__13.0__-4.0__100__110__65


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts__6.2__14.1__-3.8__95__80__57


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm__4.9__14.0__-4.0__93__97__60


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa__5.5__14.4__-6.3_120__92__67


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.4 ___ 13.5 ___ -4.0 ___ 95 ___ 110 ___ 69


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __6.1__13.2__-4.6__95__90__72


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC __________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _ -4.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 78

    NormaL _______ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 67


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __5.8__14.4__-5.5__105__105__72


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac __5.5__13.7__-5.3__105__100__58


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public__5.1__13.8__-6.9__89__109__64

    Is it that time of the year already?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 __6__13.3__-4.4__100__90__68


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC__6.6__15.0__-4.7__105__90__65


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _______ 6.8 _ 15.3 _ -7.0 _ 105 _ 110 __ 75


    Happy New Year to all !


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Welcome to the 2020 forecast contest ... we may get a few more entries but for now, this is the table of entries received. As noted in the original post, late penalties are cut in half for this month only. Even if you were to read this mid-day Thursday and enter, you would only be looking at a six point deduction instead of the normal 12 (at 1500h, after that, penalties will increase 1 point per hour). Welcome to esposito and WesternStorm, hope we do get some more new (to our contest) forecasters. For their benefit, I will mention that the table of entries runs from highest to lowest IMT predictions and where tied, from high MAX to lower MAX values, if still tied, same idea for MIN etc. Consensus is based on a median rather than a mean of the entries so that a few wildly different values don't have as much effect. Con Sensus has always been about a top five performer in our contests, rather hard for the math to be much different. Scoring is based on the following general concepts:

    IMT max of 25, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
    MAX and MIN score 20, deduct 1 pt per 0.1 error
    PRC scores 15, deduct 1 pt per 3% error
    SUN scores 10, deduct 1 pt per 5% error (rounded off, so within 2 scores 10, within 3-7 scores 9 etc)
    BONUS question usually scores 10 and sometimes a point or two extra if you get very close to the right answer(s).

    When regular scoring will be too low, scores revert to "minimum progression" which awards points on a rank-ordered scale from 1 under max to zero. There can be modified minimum progression if one forecaster's raw score is within 2 of the max, then the rest of the scores can only be boosted half as much from raw to progression so that the one accurate forecast is better rewarded relatively speaking. No minimum progression score will be lower than a raw score, sometimes a blend is the fair solution.

    Table of Forecasts for January 2020


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (kn)

    200motels __________ 6.9 _ 14.1 _-4.0 _ 107 _ 080 ____ 55

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) __ 6.8 _ 15.3 _-7.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 75

    sryanbruen __________6.8 _ 15.1 _-4.0 _ 105 _ 080 ____ 60

    M.T. Cranium ________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _-4.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 78

    JCXBXC ______ (-2) __ 6.6 _ 15.0 _-4.7 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 65

    Pauldry _____________6.5 _ 14.2 _-4.3 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 65

    Artane2002 _________ 6.4 _ 15.1 _-3.7 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 59

    esposito ____________ 6.2 _ 14.9 _-3.6 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 60

    mickger844posts _____ 6.2 _ 14.1 _-3.8 _ 095 _ 080 ____ 57

    Tae laidir ____________6.1 _ 13.2 _-4.6 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 72

    Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 6.0 _ 13.3 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 68

    Mrskinner ___________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _-5.9 _ 089 _ 099 ____ 69


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 5.9 _ 14.1 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 65


    Jpmarn _____________ 5.8 _ 14.4 _-5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72

    Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _-4.2 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 62

    Rikand ______________5.5 _ 15.0 _-4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 75

    Dacogawa ___________ 5.5 _ 14.4 _-6.3 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 67

    john mac _____ (-2) ___5.5 _ 13.7 _-5.3 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 58

    Bsal ________________ 5.5 _ 13.1 _-4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ____ 70

    Kindred Spirit _________5.4 _ 13.5 _-4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 69


    NormaL _____________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _-7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 67


    Joe Public _____ (-2) ___5.1 _ 13.8 _-6.9 _ 089 _ 109 ____ 64

    Dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 65

    DOCARCH ____________5.0 _ 12.7 _-5.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 58

    WesternStorm ________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _-4.0 _ 093 _ 097 ____ 60

    ______________________________________________-

    The general consensus appears to be rather mild and near average for rain and sunshine, with a lack of apprehension for strong winds (only three of us went as high as 75 knots). Later entries will be added and Con Sensus may change as a result.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    I thought I had posted. :( Must be age ....


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    14.3c in 3 locations today but Pheonix may have got higher or Moore Park

    Also saw gusts near 60 knots on reports so maybe a target gust has been set


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    waterways wrote: »
    I thought I had posted. :( Must be age ....

    No worries, just jump back in next month and try to avoid two low scores, for most people I've noticed the first score to go is a really low one but the second score discarded in best 10/12 is often just a point or two below the next lowest.

    So as long as you follow that pattern, missing one month just costs you a couple of points in the main contest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Just a heads up also, if anyone is following this month's thread and didn't notice, I posted historical scoring records from the entire decade in the December thread. Will be adding a few things to that going forward.


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Newport Furnace had a max of 14.4 yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Malin Head had a gust of 59


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