US Presidential Election 2020

SharpshooterTom · 28-02-2020 9:09am

RobertKK wrote: »

This is Trump's election to lose, the Democrats need a financial crash at this stage to win it.

Sanders will have the problem Corbyn had and will be seen/portrayed as a communist.

Which is what they might be getting.

Have you not seen the stock market recently? Coronavirus is the democrats big opening.

briany · 28-02-2020 1:54pm

RobertKK wrote: »

This is Trump's election to lose, the Democrats need a financial crash at this stage to win it.

Sanders will have the problem Corbyn had and will be seen/portrayed as a communist.

The big problem with the economic recovery is that fewer people have felt it. If a sign of the economic recovery in a midwestern American city has been that an Amazon fulfillment centre has opened up there, it must surely be the modern equivalent of the mines that Merle Travis sang about in 16 Tons, except it would now be called 16 Miles, which is the amount of walking pickers routinely have to do in a day. The reality is that many people are working more for little money, and their hours are less certain, and they have almost no job security.

To label the questioning of this as Communist is a trite deflection of the real question which is, "Is it fair?".

hotmail.com · 28-02-2020 2:10pm

everlast75 wrote: »

I still have to periodically stop and take in the fact the Trump defenders on here are okay saying they would vote for him, despite the fact that he is an absolute (there can be no equivocation at this stage) racist.

Our species has learned **** all.

"It's the economy stupid"

everlast75 · 28-02-2020 2:18pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

"It's the economy stupid"

thanks for proving my point

FatherTed · 28-02-2020 2:35pm

RobertKK wrote: »

This is Trump's election to lose, the Democrats need a financial crash at this stage to win it.

Sanders will have the problem Corbyn had and will be seen/portrayed as a communist.

I am amazed at people in the US especially the pundits on TV how they have zero grasp in what Sanders is proposing which is essentially national healthcare that is available in most countries. It's not a radical idea. Also, they conflate socialism to communism. So clueless.

sid waddell · 28-02-2020 3:05pm

briany wrote: »

The big problem with the economic recovery is that fewer people have felt it. If a sign of the economic recovery in a midwestern American city has been that an Amazon fulfillment centre has opened up there, it must surely be the modern equivalent of the mines that Merle Travis sang about in 16 Tons, except it would now be called 16 Miles, which is the amount of walking pickers routinely have to do in a day. The reality is that many people are working more for little money, and their hours are less certain, and they have almost no job security.

To label the questioning of this as Communist is a trite deflection of the real question which is, "Is it fair?".

In Ireland Fine Gael tried in both 2016 and 2020 to run with the narrative of economic recovery and were met with a very hostile response from working class people, with many voting Sinn Fein in 2020.

Yet in the US it seems most of the white working class, at least outside the major cities, are in thrall to Trump despite this so called economic recovery being overwhelmingly felt by the rich, and not by them.

It's bizarre, the US white working class have bought into a narrative you'd expect to hear from the upper classes in Ireland.

People didn't vote for Trump in the first place because of the economy. They voted based on the cancerous ideology of white identity.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2020 3:09pm

FatherTed wrote: »

I am amazed at people in the US especially the pundits on TV how they have zero grasp in what Sanders is proposing which is essentially national healthcare that is available in most countries. It's not a radical idea. Also, they conflate socialism to communism. So clueless.

I think that is a quite lazy and ignorant view of the situation.

Most understand and would welcome the concept of it if they could click their fingers and have it tomorrow with the 'savings' now being claimed by Bernie. What most are wary of is the potential for it to be incredibly expensive and the risks of ending up far worse off than they are with their current plans.

What Bernie is promising is moving a country from basically no public healthcare for those of working age to something beyond what even Slaintecare is aiming for, in a country of 65 times the population and one that has to deal with states having their own rules and systems.

Having concerns about such a dramatic shift isn't a sign that they are clueless, if anything it is the opposite. It is made worse by the fact the person that is promising it has repeatedly struggled with how he is going to bring it about.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2020 3:22pm

sid waddell wrote: »

In Ireland Fine Gael tried in both 2016 and 2020 to run with the narrative of economic recovery and were met with a very hostile response from working class people, with many voting Sinn Fein in 2020.

Yet in the US it seems most of the white working class, at least outside the major cities, are in thrall to Trump despite this so called economic recovery being overwhelmingly felt by the rich, and not by them.

It's bizarre, the US white working class have bought into a narrative you'd expect to hear from the upper classes in Ireland.

People didn't vote for Trump in the first place because of the economy. They voted based on the cancerous ideology of white identity.

You're right, economic growth not being felt was used as an excuse by pundits for working class people voting for Trump over Hillary but nearly every Trump number of the last few years has been worse than the last 3 years of the Obama presidency but he still leads polls with them.

US politics is incredible by the fact that so many people vote against their own personal fiscal interests, whether it is wealthy democrats voting for higher taxes or working class republicans voting for a reduction in monetary supports for themselves. The social and identity elements are so important to many people.

everlast75 · 28-02-2020 6:06pm

Latest polls... from Fox

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1233418514935042048?s=19

Foxtrol · 28-02-2020 7:12pm

everlast75 wrote: »

Latest polls... from Fox

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1233418514935042048?s=19

There is basically no point in looking at anything other than state by state polls and focusing on swing states.

There is no prize for the popular vote.

Joe_ Public · 28-02-2020 7:22pm

Is it very likely any candidate would win the electoral college with 43% of the popular vote? Anything is possible - including the polls being inaccurate - but that would be fairly astonishing imo.

everlast75 · 28-02-2020 8:09pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

There is basically no point in looking at anything other than state by state polls

Tell Trump that. He's having another meltdown

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233412547958755329?s=19

eagle eye · 28-02-2020 8:18pm

FatherTed wrote:

I am amazed at people in the US especially the pundits on TV how they have zero grasp in what Sanders is proposing which is essentially national healthcare that is available in most countries. It's not a radical idea. Also, they conflate socialism to communism. So clueless.

It's not that they don't understood it, it's that they don't want it. These people would all earn a good living and are happy with how things are.

vetinari · 28-02-2020 9:01pm

Yeah, some of the questions Sanders gets are intentionally moronic.
I prefer Warren but cringe every time I hear
"Senator Sanders isn't it true your healthcare plan will raise taxes"
They intentionally have no interest in the idea of overall costs for people going down.
They just want a soundbite where Sanders says taxes are going up.

hotmail.com · 28-02-2020 10:20pm

everlast75 wrote: »

thanks for proving my point

Voters will overlook certain issues as long as their financial security is maintained.

You may find that baffling but it's a universal truth.

Joe_ Public · 01-03-2020 12:17am

CNN doesnt even bother to make it subtle anymore. They're symptomatic of dems who pretend to be concerned that sanders wont be able to beat trump though their greater fear is that he will.

https://twitter.com/MuseWendi/status/1233754436729700352?s=20

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 12:24am

hotmail.com wrote: »

Voters will overlook certain issues as long as their financial security is maintained.

You may find that baffling but it's a universal truth.

Is that the financial security where 40% of Americans can't meet a surprise $400 bill?

I suppose that's a form of financial security, where you're secure in the knowledge that your finances are screwed should things not go quite to plan.

pixelburp · 01-03-2020 12:27am

Seems 538 shows Biden heavy favourite to win SC, so presumably the next thing will be the mainstream media pivots to suddenly proclaim a backlash of centrism against Sanders' uprising. Biden was always in contention in Carolina, but given how obviously skewed reporting bad been, I won't be surprised if the narrative swings behind Biden

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 12:31am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Is it very likely any candidate would win the electoral college with 43% of the popular vote? Anything is possible - including the polls being inaccurate - but that would be fairly astonishing imo.

The election is about turnout. The Democrats need to aim for 70 million votes. Obama got 69 million in 2008.

I don't see Trump getting more than 65 million votes. 70 million votes will push whoever the Democratic candidate is over the top.

Who is the best placed candidate to pull 70 million votes is the question. I think it's Sanders. To pull 70 million votes, you need massive energy in your campaign and Sanders energises people on the ground more than other candidates.

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 12:44am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

CNN doesnt even bother to make it subtle anymore. They're symptomatic of dems who pretend to be concerned that sanders wont be able to beat trump though their greater fear is that he will.

https://twitter.com/MuseWendi/status/1233754436729700352?s=20

And here's more "centrist" hostility. Yet some people here think this is made up.

https://twitter.com/mashagessen/status/1233811800849879040

Water John · 01-03-2020 12:49am

How could anyone get so worked up for Pete? There's nothing there.

markodaly · 01-03-2020 1:19am

sid waddell wrote: »

Who is the best placed candidate to pull 70 million votes is the question. I think it's Sanders. To pull 70 million votes, you need massive energy in your campaign and Sanders energises people on the ground more than other candidates.

You can think what you like, but so far, democratic numbers in this primary is down, including the young vote.
Sanders has shown no proof that he can pull in the numbers needed for him to get over the line.

DreamsBurnDown · 01-03-2020 1:27am

Look like Biden has won SC, and CNN are projecting a very significant margin with him getting at least 14 of the 54 delegates and possibly more. That would vault him into a clear second place on delegates so far. It could well be that we have a two horse race at the end of super Tuesday.

markodaly · 01-03-2020 1:31am

DreamsBurnDown wrote: »

Look like Biden has won SC, and CNN are projecting a very significant margin with him getting at least 14 of the 54 delegates and possibly more. That would vault him into a clear second place on delegates so far. It could well be that we have a two horse race at the end of super Tuesday.

This Biden win could help Bernie. Bloomberg will eat into the moderate vote which will be a problem for Biden. Bernie, on the other hand, has a clear run at it from the more progressive side.

We will be down to 3 or 4 candidates after Super Tuesday.
Berine, Bloomberg, Biden and one of Warren or Buttigieg

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 1:41am

markodaly wrote: »

You can think what you like, but so far, democratic numbers in this primary is down, including the young vote.
Sanders has shown no proof that he can pull in the numbers needed for him to get over the line.

Sure if you're so sure about that why don't you post up the numbers who voted in the Democratic primaries in 2016 and 2020 in the states we have the figures for so far - Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada?

I'll give you a hint as to why you didn't - it's because for each of the three, there was a higher turnout in 2020, ie. you're wrong.

markodaly · 01-03-2020 1:49am

sid waddell wrote: »

Sure if you're so sure about that why don't you post up the numbers who voted in the Democratic primaries in 2016 and 2020 in the states we have the figures for so far - Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada?

I'll give you a hint as to why you didn't - it's because for each of the three, there was a higher turnout in 2020, ie. you're wrong.

Nice goalpost shifting.

The turnout for these primaries have been much much lower than the 2008 primaries, which elected Obama.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/was-iowa-caucus-turnout-a-huge-red-flag

The numbers are not that big for Bernie if you break down the numbers. In fact he has gotten fewer votes in both Iowa and NH this year than compared to 2016.
Its just the field is more split and he is coming out on top.

Your theory of Bernie being elected on a wave of young voters does not hold up to any scrutiny.
This is not Obama 2008, nowhere close. Its like McGovern 1972

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 1:56am

markodaly wrote: »

Nice goalpost shifting.

The turnout for these primaries have been much much lower than the 2008 primaries, which elected Obama.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/was-iowa-caucus-turnout-a-huge-red-flag

The numbers are not that big for Bernie if you break down the numbers. In fact he has gotten fewer votes in both Iowa and NH this year than compared to 2016.
Its just the field is more split and he is coming out on top.

Your theory of Bernie being elected on a wave of young voters does not hold up to any scrutiny.
This is not Obama 2008, nowhere close. Its like McGovern 1972

I didn't move any goalposts, you did. This is very simple. You said turnout is down. It isn't.

You were wrong. Move on.

Joe_ Public · 01-03-2020 2:03am

It's hardly surprising any candidate would get less votes now given there is such choice in the field. I mean, thats just obvious. But sanders polls the best in voters second choices so he'll do well from any candidate who drops out and not just progressives, ie warren.

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 2:21am

Biden is obviously going to win South Carolina, but on closer inspection the exit polls don't look as great for him with a view to other states.

From 538:
Sanders won 45 percent of white voters aged 17 to 44 while Biden won only 8 percent, but among black voters, Biden actually edged Sanders 41 percent to 29 percent under 45.

Obviously Biden was always going to do very well with black voters in an older, more conservative southern state given his association with Obama.

But that figure of just 8% of white voters aged 17-44 has to be alarming for him - not just for states with whiter electorates in the primaries, but in terms of his ability to win in November, whereas the black vote would fall heavily for Sanders if he makes it to November.

It should be remembered that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won South Carolina by a margin of 51.42% over Sanders.

Biden's margin of victory tonight is projected to be 24%. It looks Sanders will take second place with around 20%.

markodaly · 01-03-2020 2:34am

sid waddell wrote: »

I didn't move any goalposts, you did. This is very simple. You said turnout is down. It isn't.

You were wrong. Move on.

Ah, see with that attitude, Bernie is in for a hiding, McGovern style.

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 2:47am

markodaly wrote: »

Ah, see with that attitude, Bernie is in for a hiding, McGovern style.

This is bizarre. I simply stated that you were wrong when you said Democratic turnout numbers were down this year. You are wrong. Numbers are up.

Now, how or why you extrapolated that a factual correction about numbers in a post on an Irish discussion forum is an indicator of what will happen in the US presidential election in November, I have no idea, but I'd guess having a bad "attitude" about being corrected on facts would be a likely reason.

Manic Moran · 01-03-2020 3:41am

The political adverts are starting to hit a bit harder, now, here in TX. This evening was the first non-Bloomberg one I've seen. Three for Warren so far.

Rjd2 · 01-03-2020 5:25am

Warren needs to have a think right now.

She can't win and her dropping out would be a big boost for Bernie who supposedly she is closest to politically and friendship wise.

Stuff like this below really doesn't do her cause any good whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/aishaismad/status/1233899739906813952

The Phantom Jipper · 01-03-2020 5:42am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Warren needs to have a think right now.

She can't win and her dropping out would be a big boost for Bernie who supposedly she is closest to politically and friendship wise.

Stuff like this below really doesn't do her cause any good whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/aishaismad/status/1233899739906813952

The cat's out of the bag? It's a competition to be the nominee. Surely she's allowed to think she should be the nominee ahead of Bernie while she's still in the race?

Sawduck · 01-03-2020 5:49am

Hopefully bernie gets it, just because there is so many people against him including dems, would be interesting to see who they would vote for in a trump v sanders situation

The Phantom Jipper · 01-03-2020 5:57am

Tom Steyer just dropped out.

eire4 · 01-03-2020 6:11am

Sawduck wrote: »

Hopefully bernie gets it, just because there is so many people against him including dems, would be interesting to see who they would vote for in a trump v sanders situation

That is so true. The very same corporate Democrats preaching that you have to vote for whoever wins no matter what in the Democratic primary will they get behind Sanders 100% if he wins open for debate I think. Because they only really mean what they say if it is one of their corporate candidates who wins.

DreamsBurnDown · 01-03-2020 8:10am

markodaly wrote: »

This Biden win could help Bernie. Bloomberg will eat into the moderate vote which will be a problem for Biden. Bernie, on the other hand, has a clear run at it from the more progressive side.

We will be down to 3 or 4 candidates after Super Tuesday.
Berine, Bloomberg, Biden and one of Warren or Buttigieg

Possibly but I think Bernie and Biden is more likely. Bloomberg only entered the race as he didn't think Biden could make it, if Biden does well Tuesday Bloomberg likely will step aside.

The first four primaries are all about momentum, Warren has developed none and Buttigieg is losing momentum. Both will be gone next week imo.

briany · 01-03-2020 11:20am

Pete Buttigieg's whole appears to be, "I'm gay. But before you get too freaked out over that, conservative America, I'm also a veteran, so they balance out, right?"

Much like Biden and Bloomberg, I don't get a feeling off him that he can really inspire people. If he he could do so, he probably already would have done. Bernie has an amount of ability to get people fired up. Biden more appeals to pragmatists and those who vote as a matter of course.
Problem is that Biden also represents the Washington establishment like nobody's business.

pixelburp · 01-03-2020 1:00pm

briany wrote: »

Pete Buttigieg's whole appears to be, "I'm gay. But before you get too freaked out over that, conservative America, I'm also a veteran, so they balance out, right?"

Much like Biden and Bloomberg, I don't get a feeling off him that he can really inspire people. If he he could do so, he probably already would have done. Bernie has an amount of ability to get people fired up. Biden more appeals to pragmatists and those who vote as a matter of course.
Problem is that Biden also represents the Washington establishment like nobody's business.

You'd have to imagine at this stage, Buttigieg's simply persisting for the benefit of the inevitable(?) 2024 run, or a run at the Senate at the bare minimum. No way this isn't long term thinking for a guy not even yet 40.

If I were a conspiratorial type, I'd even suggest he's playing the long term game here, betting that if / when a Populist Sanders (or Trump) Presidency comes to its end & the next election cycle, along will come the picture of Centrism himself, and pillar of progressive America if you so wish, to steer the ship back to normalcy.

sid waddell · 01-03-2020 1:18pm

One thing Biden's win last night did is increase the chances of a contested convention. Biden is the only possible challenger to Sanders but Bloomberg and Buttigieg still being in the race mean that he isn't likely to have a very good Super Tuesday based on the split "centrist" vote.

Sanders is likely to take a good lead after Tuesday but whether it will be decisive is another thing entirely.

I think the scenario where Sanders gets a plurality but not a majority of pledged delegates by the end of the primaries, with Biden x number of hundreds behind, is coming into view.

I've come to the view that if that happens, the party establishment are prepared to screw Sanders at any cost.

And the cost will be huge if they do. Not only could it fatally undermine Biden as the presidential candidate, but it could fatally undermine the Democratic party for years.

It could cause a split in the party with the progessive wing feeling it has been betrayed despite getting more votes.

The narrative that corporate Democrats are prepared to screw over Sanders at any cost would be borne out in reality, and the narrative that they would prefer to see Trump win rather than Sanders would also be seen to be true.

is_that_so · 01-03-2020 1:19pm

Sawduck wrote: »

Hopefully bernie gets it, just because there is so many people against him including dems, would be interesting to see who they would vote for in a trump v sanders situation

It may all come down to horse trading at the convention. Not clear that anyone will land a knockout during the primaries. At least if it's down to two we might see an end to the regular end of road guesswork opinion pieces on candidates.

Water John · 01-03-2020 2:01pm

Run one as the Presidential candidate- Sanders, the other for Vice President again- Biden. Some roles and policies could be clearly defined, great team. Sanders agrees to moderate one or two things.

Rjd2 · 01-03-2020 3:45pm

Water John wrote: »

Run one as the Presidential candidate- Sanders, the other for Vice President again- Biden. Some roles and policies could be clearly defined, great team. Sanders agrees to moderate one or two things.

Its dodgy enough to have one near 80 year old leading the ticket but another as VP? Nope to old,,probably to white for the Dem party also.

Biden has numerous options for VP tbf,, Harris, Booker, Castro etc.

briany · 01-03-2020 3:49pm

Water John wrote: »

Run one as the Presidential candidate- Sanders, the other for Vice President again- Biden. Some roles and policies could be clearly defined, great team. Sanders agrees to moderate one or two things.

Too ideologically opposed to work together. Supposing Sanders got the nomination - his supporters don't want to see him cosying up to the centre ground. It would be like Trump picking Jeb Bush as his no. 2 in 2016.

DreamsBurnDown · 01-03-2020 4:07pm

A contested convention is indeed looking likely, but it was always likely with so many candidates in the race. It will be very divisive, especially if one candidate wins a plurarity of delegates and then loses the nomination. Especially as the superdelegates could effectively decide the outcome, and will decide the outcome if there are only two candidates.

The rules have already been established by the DNC though, they can hardly change them at this point. It would be a farce to change the rules in the middle of the nomination process.

It should be noted that Bernie's view on superdelegates has changed since 2016. In a recent debate he was the only candidate who said the candidate with the majority of pledged delegates should get the nomination. In May of 2016 he called for superdelegates to support him as the nominee, even though Clinton was ahead on the pledged delegate count and the popular vote. "The responsibility that superdelegates have is to decide what is best for this country and what is best for the Democratic party".

If it goes to a second round the superdelegates should support whoever has the lead in pledged delegates. Whether they will or not is another question.

briany · 01-03-2020 4:39pm

One thing's for sure - if it comes down to the superdelegates, there's no way in hell is Bernie getting the nomination.

Stacksofwacks · 01-03-2020 6:34pm

I'm sick and tired of people in the American media making out Bernie Sanders to be some kind of dangerous radical, yes his policies are somewhat to the left but he's made out to be far radical than he actually is. Another that he's an ideologue, a politician with actual policies..the horror!! I couldn't name off the top of my head any of Joe Biden's policies or what he actually stands for.

But anyway, the scaremongering appears to be working and Biden's big win in South Carolina is bound to give him some momentum going into super Tuesday. I think Bernie will still end up with the most delegates but if he heads into the convention without a majority and Bloomberg or Biden on his coattails then I think he lose on the superdelegates. That would be a great result for Donald Trump.

Stacksofwacks · 01-03-2020 6:45pm

briany wrote: »

One thing's for sure - if it comes down to the superdelegates, there's no way in hell is Bernie getting the nomination.

Even if there is even a sliver of a chance, they will take the nomination from Bernie. He will need a sizable lead going into the convention. He may still get that but if his nearest challenger is within touching distance the its over for him unfortunately. They are already prepping for this scenario in the media by slandering Sander's supporters as boorish and unruly so that when they take the nomination the outrage from his supporters can be dismissed out of hand.

Bobtheman · 01-03-2020 6:51pm

Bernie is more extreme than Trump just in the other direction. Both parties need to revamp their primary systems to stop Johnny come latelys
My heart is with Bernie but he needs to moderate or he will bern out !

US Presidential Election 2020

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