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Storm Aiden - Saturday October 31st

2456

Comments

  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Ship report of 59 knot westerly winds at 37N 66W which is between post-tropical Zeta and the developing tail end low.

    The GFS perturbations give some more intense solutions for Saturday night into Sunday morning, but not a big spread, implying moderately high confidence in the solution as presented.

    However, I have to wonder if the intensity of the upper flow dynamics will merge the two storms so that the mid-day frontal passage becomes a sort of occlusion of the fast-approaching remnant low of Zeta, then a two-part windstorm ensues with peaks at mid-day Saturday and just after midnight (0300h Nov 1st).

    Something to watch in future model runs. Full moon is Saturday (around 15z) so tidal surges may need to be considered for Galway Bay.


  • #53
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    ME may upgrade warnings later this morning.


  • #54
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Significant looking rainfall for the southeast tonight/tomorrow morning, and then wet and wild around lunchtime tomorrow in the west, a day for the fire.


  • #55
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Significant looking rainfall for the southeast tonight/tomorrow morning, and then wet and wild around lunchtime tomorrow in the west, a day for the fire.

    Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.


  • #56
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Clonmel1000 wrote: »
    Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.

    Yesterday was so mild the fire was not needed here; but today is a diferent matter with clearer skies and no cloud blanket. Decidedly parky out there


  • #57
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Looks like we should get a few hours respite with the heavy wind and rain around 5pm-9pm just in time for Wexford V Galway


  • #58
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    On Saturday morning strong southerly winds veering southwesterly associated with Storm Aiden will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h, with severe and damaging gusts of 100 to 130km/h.

    Valid: 05:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 10:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

    Issued: 10:00 Friday 30/10/2020

    ———————————————————————-

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    On Saturday morning and afternoon strong southwest to west winds associated with Storm Aiden will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h, with severe and damaging gusts of 100 to 130km/h.

    Valid: 08:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

    Issued: 10:00 Friday 30/10/2020

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  • #59
    Jimbob1977
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭Jimbob1977


    Calm and clear in Limerick at the moment.

    A great day

    The calm before the storm.


  • #60
    Kamili
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    851881-B9-A402-4296-B536-E030399-FFC9-D.jpg

    I still can't get over how the weather sticks to county borders.


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  • #61
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Kamili wrote: »
    I still can't get over how the weather sticks to county borders.

    The coastal counties will see the highest winds which is usually what happens.


  • #62
    Kamili
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    The coastal counties will see the highest winds which is usually what happens.

    Not Disputing that at all, just how once you hit a county border the weather seems to reduce in severity in some cases.

    Anyway off topic so I will keep schtum.


  • #63
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Kamili wrote: »
    Anyway off topic so I will keep schtum.

    Mod Note: Thanks! :)

    There is a special thread for that: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791


  • #64
    compsys
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭compsys


    Clonmel1000 wrote: »
    Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.

    Ya think?

    Things have been OK - in Dublin at least.

    Hasn't felt too wet and it's been sunny enough. It's late October after all...


  • #65
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Storm Aidan on All Hallow's Eve... . All Hallows Eve. then All Hallows Day ie All Saints Day, , then All Souls Day. An auspicious weekend for storms.

    It is so quiet now .

    All lies ahead. Good to have such clear warnings; thank you!

    West Mayo ; offshore


  • #66
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest ECM 06Z and ICON 06Z

    ECM bringing stronger winds on this run along Southern coasts, think there could be very strong winds running across into the midlands in the afternoon. Just my thoughts but thinking very strong winds could whip in there for a time around 11.00 or 12.00 for a couple of hours or so. Will keep an eye to see if the charts develop it more.




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  • #67
    endainoz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,135 ✭✭✭endainoz


    That third pic shows it coming right across North Clare in the Midlands, looks like it might be a wild one! Will try to get a video of Doolin Pier tomorrow morning.


  • #68
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO showing a very tight gradient along Southern counties. Very generalized map with not much detail but showing the strongest winds of all the models atm.

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  • #69
    Gerianam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭Gerianam


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Storm Aidan on All Hallow's Eve... . All Hallows Eve. then All Hallows Day ie All Saints Day, , then All Souls Day. An auspicious weekend for storms.

    It is so quiet now .

    All lies ahead. Good to have such clear warnings; thank you!

    West Mayo ; offshore

    Did you get your supplies, Graces ?


  • #70
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Cork airport forecasting gusts up to 55 knots between 5am and 7am
    BECMG 3105/3107 21035G55KT 9999


  • #71
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    compsys wrote: »
    Ya think?

    Things have been OK - in Dublin at least.

    Hasn't felt too wet and it's been sunny enough. It's late October after all...

    Dublin never gets it as bad as anywhere else :)


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  • #72
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Update: During Friday night and Saturday strong southerly winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with severe and possibly damaging gusts to around 100km/h.
    Some coastal flooding possible also due to the combination of low pressure, high tides and onshore winds.

    Valid: 02:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 29/10/2020

    Updated: 13:04 Friday 30/10/2020


  • #73
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Fast moving, rapidly falling pressure . That's a drop of about 30 hPa in 24 hrs

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  • #74
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,594 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What a beautiful Autumn day before the storm.
    The storm is probably a good thing - it will distract the kids from the fact they cant trick-or-treat.
    It will distract the rest of us from non-stop Covid.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #75
    fonecrusher1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,702 ✭✭✭fonecrusher1


    Kamili wrote: »
    I still can't get over how the weather sticks to county borders.

    Yeah why is veering around County Limerick? Is it lower lying or something?


  • #76
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Didn't we already have storm Aiden? What was the A-storm we had back a month or two ago?

    EDIT: Scratch that. I'm having a senior moment. It was Alex.


  • #77
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    These charts start at 18Z yesterday and go up to Monday.

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  • #78
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,594 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    In times gone by, an Orange warning storm thread would be absolutely hopping. People would even be asking whether there was any chance of a Red so they could skive off work.

    Covid has ruined everything ;)

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #79
    kravmaga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,978 ✭✭✭kravmaga


    Sorry to be pedantic folks , its spelt Aidan also


  • #80
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Clonmel1000 wrote: »
    Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.

    Strangely enough i haven't lit the fire since last March, such a beautiful calm day today.


  • #81
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    kravmaga wrote: »
    Sorry to be pedantic folks , its spelt Aidan also

    Nope

    (PS. I hope we get to Saidhbhín just so we can hear the BBC trying to pronounce it...)

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  • #82
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The UKMO have the low 7 hPa lower at 12Z tomorrow in their 12Z forecast today compared to their 00Z forecast (967 versus 974 hPa). The centre is about 2 degrees (120 NM) further to the north-northwest, however, so the gradient across the country looks slightly slacker as a result.

    Forecast issued at 12Z today.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020103012_024.png

    Forecast issued at 00Z today.
    ukmo_nat_fax_2020103000_036.png


  • #83
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Cork Airport forecast gusts up to 57 knots between 5am and 7am

    BECMG 3105/3107 21033G57KT 9999


  • #84
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gerianam wrote: »
    Did you get your supplies, Graces ?

    OH yes indeed For some reason the coal did not arrive but the cat food did.. ALl ready and safe here we are!

    " Cry HAVOC and let loose the dogs of war!"

    Looking at the new map; it is quite formidable.... ; :eek:


  • #85
    je551e
    Registered Users Posts: 440 ✭✭je551e


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Didn't we already have storm Aiden? What was the A-storm we had back a month or two ago?

    EDIT: Scratch that. I'm having a senior moment. It was Alex.

    Quick question why are we back to A?


  • #86
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    kravmaga wrote: »
    Sorry to be pedantic folks , its spelt Aidan also

    As I spelt it on my post! Whoever made up the storm names got it wrong ...AIDAN


  • #87
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    je551e wrote: »
    Quick question why are we back to A?

    Alex was named by Méteo France, which uses a different list, along with AEMET of Spain, IPMA of Portugal and IRM of Belgium.

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  • #88
    secman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,408 ✭✭✭secman


    je551e wrote: »
    Quick question why are we back to A?

    Think Alex was named by Portuguese met .....or France or both definitely a European one.
    This new list is Uk Ireland one


  • #89
    CirrusBusiness
    Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    How are the charts looking this evening? (Upgrades or downgrades) I thought it would be very active in here by now. The sense in the locality seems to be that there's a good storm coming. We spent the evening clearing everything away from around the house and garden.


  • #90
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The emphasis for the strongest winds has moved very much to the W and NW. Both main models have tracked further N on the latest runs . Will this trend of tracking further N continue ? ECM has a tighter gradient near the W / NW and showing stronger winds. Close to red warning there for a time going by the ECM unless it drifts a bit further away from the coasts ?

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  • #91
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Of the other models ICON has been the most consistent, ARPEGE getting there and GFS stronger now as well but not developing the stronger section in the W. NW tomorrow afternoon.


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  • #92
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    We usually bring mother up to ours or to one of my sisters but she is saying that she is sick of being shunted out of her home every time a bit of wind is forecast and staying put. She would have to come to mine as she is in our social bubble with the covid. I dont blame her. The nonsense with these warnings every time a gale comes in. The country is in enough of a mess and older people stressed out enough without orange warnings. Yes it will be windy and im sure it will blow a good gale but let's review the warning systems and increase rhe warning level thresholds. Bit of a rant but I'm annoyed.


  • #93
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Away from south ,west,nw coasts not to bad i would think at this stage.

    Max gusts been forecasted at airports up until 11am
    Dublin :47 knots between 7am - 9am
    Shannon:45 knots betwern 5am-10am
    Knock 48 knots between 7am-9am
    Cork :57 knots between 5am -7am


  • #94
    fineso.mom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭fineso.mom


    Graces7 wrote: »
    As I spelt it on my post! Whoever made up the storm names got it wrong ...AIDAN

    They didn't 'get it wrong'?? They chose the "Aiden' version of the name. Either spelling is correct.
    Absolutely lovely day here in West Limerick, got a lot of outside work done today in case Aiden decides to come this way.


  • #95
    dmc17
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭dmc17


    fineso.mom wrote: »
    They didn't 'get it wrong'?? They chose the "Aiden' version of the name. Either spelling is correct.
    Absolutely lovely day here in West Limerick, got a lot of outside work done today in case Aiden decides to come this way.

    I thought they named it after Dr Aidan Nulty


  • #96
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Bit of a spread even at this stage with the winds predicted for overnight Sat into Sun and during Sun.

    ECM keeping the strongest winds away from the coasts, blustery overland.

    GFS develops a proper depression bringing it close to the W / NW and brings the Sunday wave further N over Ireland bringing the winds more over the Southern half of the country

    ARPEGE quite windy early Sun morning , not developing the wave as much on Sunday

    ICON windy enough along the coastal fringes early Sunday morning, blustery overland and not developing the wave on Sun apart from skimming along the SE coasts.

    We will see.



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  • #97
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,996 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    NE like Drogheda and Dundalk seem to always be off the radar for these events.

    Maybe they are in shade of something or other, but often noticed this fact.


  • #98
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Lateas Met Eireann forecast

    30 October 2020 20:04

    Tonight
    Dry at first tonight, but becoming wet and very windy overnight, with heavy rain developing, accompanied by strengthening south to southeast winds. Winds increasing strong to gale force later, with some severe and damaging gusts occurring towards dawn, especially in parts of Munster and south Leinster. Cool early in the night, with lowest temperatures of 4 to 7 degrees, but much milder later with temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.

    Tomorrow
    Tomorrow, Saturday will be extremely windy for a time in many areas, as storm Aiden tracks to the northwest of the country. Very strong and gusty southerly winds will veer westerly with some severe and damaging gusts, especially in Atlantic coastal counties, with weather warnings in operation. Very high seas around coasts with a risk of coastal flooding. Bright spells developing tomorrow, with squally showers, some of them heavy and prolonged, mainly in the northwest. Becoming mostly dry by evening, with winds moderating, except on northwest coasts. Highest temperatures 12 to 14 degrees early on, but turning cooler in the afternoon.


  • #99
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,594 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Would I be right in saying that we wont see a lot of rainfall during daylight hours tomorrow in the west?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #100
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Can see the system taking shape and deepening rapidly well off the SW, ECM showing some potential for elevated convection, low chance of lightning but maybe along the SW, S some heavy squally downpours.

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  • #101
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    Would I be right in saying that we wont see a lot of rainfall during daylight hours tomorrow in the west?

    Yeah most of the heaviest rain gone through early in the morning.


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