Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

Storm Aiden - Saturday October 31st

  • 28-10-2020 12:41am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I think it is worth starting a thread highlighting the threat of very windy and wet weather over the Halloween Weekend, possibly stormy , this on the back of very wet weather on the days leading up to it.

    MT has very good analysis here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115068492&postcount=5800

    Met Eireann has a very good Meteorologist's Commentary with a cracking title 'Howling Halloween' here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

    Met Eireann have already said to keep an eye on expected further warnings.

    Rivers will be running very high after the heavy rainfall over the coming days more so on the Western side of the country and especially along Atlantic coastal counties .Moving into Spring tides this weekend and with areas of deep LP and strong winds all adding to flooding potential.

    Warnings and Title will need to be amended over the coming days if warranted.





    Current model standings has the ECMWF and UKMO quiet similar for Sat and Sunday with a deepening depression running up off the W coasts on Saturday and possibly another deepening area of LP closer to Ireland later Sat night into Sunday morning, ECM also goes on to show potentially very windy weather Monday also ( UKMO not developing this LP as much ) .

    To note the GFS was showing very windy stormy conditions, backed off almost completely and is back showing some windy weather but nothing compared to the other models.

    The shorter range models are a bit too far out yet to be reliable but are remarkably similar for now anyway. Of course will expect tracks and intensity to change one way or the other but for now showing strong wind event potential.



    HUhgEDe.gif

    lD2IZvR.gif


    anim_rla4.gif

    anim_wew4.gif


«13456789

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Current forecast from Met Eireann :

    Next weekend: Very unsettled with occasional showers and longer spells of rain and strong predominantly south or southwest winds. There is a risk of extremely windy weather or even possibly stormy conditions in Atlantic coastal counties on Saturday and Saturday night. . Some sunny spells by day also. Maximum temperatures on Saturday 10 to 14 degrees, but cool on Sunday with values of 9 to 12 degrees.

    Further outlook : Current indications are for unsettled conditions continuing in the early days of next week, with sunny spells and showers, some heavy and possibly thundery, with a risk of hail. Very windy on Monday, with very strong westerly winds, easing a little on Tuesday.






    1Qi634G.gif



    ECMWF 18Z just out up to Sat 12.00

    bv5klvS.gif


    KB3E44W.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Thank you.

    It is bad out here already , with strong winds/gales a great feature. As in marine warnings which affect coastal dwellings and 12 miles out to sea.

    It has basic practical implications here as the ferries are in jeopardy in high winds; which is why the cupboards are well stocked ;). Rain/flooding is less of an issue for us. It depends too on wind direction,

    Well, all normal autumn weather! Right on cue...truly ferocious !

    West Mayo offshore


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The key concept here is the range of possible outcomes, we have the energy from current Gulf of Mexico hurricane Zeta rapidly merging with a short wave being ejected out of an upper level low in Texas-Oklahoma (bringing them a freezing rain storm), and the combined energy races east about as fast as low pressure ever moves in the general area of this forecast scenario. That all means that tiny changes could build into significant alterations of forecasts on both timing and intensity.

    Take the weekend part of this as a watch situation for now. The heavy rainfall for Thursday is pretty much locked in and a generally unsettled weekend scenario seems like a sure bet too, but these details could change. With these sorts of speeds in the jet stream, you have to think that some place is going to get nailed by the resulting frontal system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,580 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly


    So nothing out of the ordinary for kerry then :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭ Shepards Delight


    An unsettled day here in claremorris had very frequent showers .the 3 weather fronts coming between now into the weekend
    Tonight into the early hours
    Friday night into Saturday morning
    Saturday night into sunday
    Sunday day be an unsettled enough day in the west especially .
    From then on into early days of next week be more of a possibility of clear and colder weather developing but still room for showers to pop up here and there . Welcome to wintertime .


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    I just posted on the autumn thread as it has escalated swiftly here.

    The sudden increase in noise had me outside

    The ocean bay at the back is usually flat calm,. or occasionally ruffled, Now it has white breakers crashing in. A first time sight for me in my more than four years here

    Exhilarating! And invigorating. The next while will be.... challenging. Pure volatile autumn weather at its finest.

    West Mayo offshore


  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭ eastmayo


    Met eireann on radio 1 said they will be issuing weather warnings for this weekend tomorrow for heavy rain and stormy weather.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has been the most consistent I reckon for the first strong winds on Saturday but this is a very fast moving system, deepening as it reaches Ireland so by no means the exact track and strength. Very strong winds on the coasts and strong winds overland.

    Most places would have strong winds at some stage during the day from a chart like this. Less than 60 hrs away but the nature of its approach, fast jet and deepening as it arrives will need watching right down to the wire perhaps.

    Heavy rains ahead of the winds, possibly thundery.

    r1qXq0Y.gif

    gGWbsh0.gif

    kmNXuqB.gif

    zzrtnjb.gif


    Qx4FGkP.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The second quick moving system for now looks windy on the coasts and blustery overland. Again nothing certain about the track or strength but looking windy

    gNapoe3.gif


    agregP5.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS showing it windier than previous runs but nothing too strong as yet.

    ARPEGE starting to look like the ECM on Sat but timing much different and track keeping the strongest winds off shore but I think it will look more like the ECM on the next run.

    anim_okm1.gif

    anim_gat9.gif


    ICON quite like the ECMWF but much stronger ( this has been showing a wide variety of tracks and strengths over the last few runs. I don't trust these wind speeds yet, would need to settle down and show consistency for a few runs.

    anim_acs7.gif

    anim_sfg4.gif

    anim_xlh7.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    UKMO has a different look to it bringing the Low much further S on Sat morning with the strong winds missing the country, goes on to show a windy Sat night into Sun morning and then very windy along the W, NW on Sunday into Monday, quite windy on the Northern half of the country Sun into Mon morning.

    If I was to guess I would think leaning more towards the ECM and the ARPEGE for now .

    43mFDaG.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Listening here and looking at met ie and I will be making calls in the morning re no deliveries as they are saying gusts up to 100 k. So no ferries.

    The sound effects are awesome now. Gale gusts, deluges hurled against windows and roof.. Sheer power...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Torrential rain in Galway now


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,580 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly


    A soft day in North kerry.
    Saw a neighbour out for a walk battling up the hill against the wind and rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    There will be a few Halloween decorations floating around the weekend judging by the forecasts.at least not as many up as previous years and no trick or treaters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    RTE weather had deep low last night that I dont see on any of the charts. Where are they getting that from?


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Truly spectacularly appalling ! As met.ie foretold and then some. The din is deafening. The ocean not as high just now but we have spring tides soon.
    Roaring and battering.

    There are no fields or mountains.

    Just.. WOW! I have spent half an hour on the phone rearranging deliveries etc.

    No ferries today; with gusts up to 100 k forecast.. of course not.

    There looks to be a lull tomorrow so shopping trip then.

    Before the next assault?

    The forecast according to Graces7! Focussing on the effects of the weather.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yes charts are evolving every run, the most severe winds from the earlier runs ( even from yesterday ) not showing as widespread stormy conditions atm yet still very windy in places especially coasts but I still wouldn't see todays charts as anywhere as final. This is so fast moving that anything could happen, could easily throw a depression straight at us with very strong winds at the last moment. Certainly a challenging one for forecasting, keeping it very generalized with so much change in the charts. No shortage of rain driving up the totals. Exact track of the heaviest rains changing also but in general the S, SW , W and NW getting the highest totals.

    z0fo6KW.gif


    lBwSMV0.gif

    i727a86.gif

    cWhKP7G.png



    v0gtIMx.png

    6kqXvVH.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Weather Advisory for Ireland

    Very unsettled weather will occur over the Halloween weekend as a series of vigorous Atlantic weather systems pass close to Ireland.

    Spells of heavy rain will lead to surface and river flooding.

    Very windy/stormy at times with some severe and damaging gusts possible.

    Some coastal flooding possible also due to the combination of low pressure, high tides and onshore winds.

    Very high seas.

    Please consult your county warnings from Met Éireann on a day by day basis https://www.met.ie/warnings/today

    Valid: 21:03 Friday 30/10/2020 to 18:00 Monday 02/11/2020

    Issued: 10:00 Thursday 29/10/2020


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Warning out for Saturday

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Strong to gale force southerly winds will veer westerly. Some severe gusts are possible.

    Valid: 01:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 15:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 29/10/2020


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Certainly not as bad as outlier chart they showed after news at 9. It will likely be yellow with an odd chance of 115kph along coasts in South and West.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,171 ✭✭✭ Widdensushi


    West getting strongest winds on Monday


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    How likely is the current Met Eireann forecast for a dry night on Saturday in Dublin to stick? About the one thing I'm looking forward to about Halloween this year is my usual wander around Dun Laoghaire to watch all the back garden fireworks displays people do, the last two (I think?) years in a row have had horrendous weather on Halloween night and it seems like this year, despite the weekend in general being forecast to be a mess, the night itself might actually be dry :D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,969 ✭✭✭ irishrover99


    I hate stormy weather, but this year on Halloween I hope it buckets down all night with huge gales.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Our Meteorologist's Commentary regarding the scary Halloween weather on the way has been updated and is available here...

    https://t.co/ktXtWjbfIg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    I hate stormy weather, but this year on Halloween I hope it buckets down all night with huge gales.

    I feel for the young kids who love this time of year and Covid writing it off. But since early September, it has been aggressive displays from teenagers with bangers and fireworks, and our dogs not able to handle these. It seems to being out the antisocial element that - hopefully - the bad weather will deter


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 275 ✭✭ sweet_trip


    How likely is the current Met Eireann forecast for a dry night on Saturday in Dublin to stick? About the one thing I'm looking forward to about Halloween this year is my usual wander around Dun Laoghaire to watch all the back garden fireworks displays people do, the last two (I think?) years in a row have had horrendous weather on Halloween night and it seems like this year, despite the weekend in general being forecast to be a mess, the night itself might actually be dry :D:D:D


    Looks like it's going to lul somewhat between saturday afternoon and saturday night. It's a small window but hopefully it won't deter many from having a good night.


    Have some fireworks and a little campfire planned.


    I hate stormy weather, but this year on Halloween I hope it buckets down all night with huge gales.

    I feel for the young kids who love this time of year and Covid writing it off. But since early September, it has been aggressive displays from teenagers with bangers and fireworks, and our dogs not able to handle these. It seems to being out the antisocial element that - hopefully - the bad weather will deter




    What you actually wanted was for it to bucket and gale from September to October every day.

    The one night of the year should be the only night for fireworks, and a fun night to enjoy and not be miserable wishing such things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    sweet_trip wrote: »
    The one night of the year should be the only night for fireworks, and a fun night to enjoy and not be miserable wishing such things.

    Who wished miserable on anybody? I certainly didn't - I want the antisocial element curbed which have been making the lives of many here MISERABLE with bangers, rockets and stupid carryon. As I said, I feel for the young kids who look forward to it.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM back looking stormy around the coasts on Saturday and some very windy overland. But the charts have been chopping and changing a lot as they try to grapple with the energy coming our way over the Halloween weekend into Monday. Would need to see more consistent charts and other models to come into some alignment to make any sort of a call, they are all over the place atm. ICON's last run is similar now to the ECM, ARPEGE was showing it stormy the previous run but gone off on another tangent, does show it very windy later Sat night into Sun. GFS showing it windy Sat night into Sun but otherwise not as strong as the Euro models.



    Rd9Weqd.gif

    hpnOBhI.gif

    YAaoAgV.gif

    anim_mos3.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭ Shepards Delight


    After a soft day today in Claremorris we face a wet scenario of flooding and any remaining leaves to come off our trees .Halloween weather will bring alot of scary night time hours of rain but i don't think anybody be able to set off any fireworks this year they be rained off .
    There is basically 24 hours between each weather front coming up . Meteorologists are saying we are in for a bit of respite as we come in to the new week so finally a bit of good news . Stay safe everybody . And dont forget to wear the mask this weekend .


Advertisement