Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

The Tetrarch · 27-02-2021 11:15am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Google how to be a successful punter. Read Patrick Vietch's book or something.

I would not recommend Patrick Veitch's book (not Vietch). There is little or nothing to learn from it.
Veitch started off with Exponential (2002), a 2yo gelding who ran 13th of 13 on its debut, beaten 17 lengths. In its second race on 16th August 2004 it opened at 100/1, and started at 8/1. Google says Veitch made almost a quarter of a million on the race. "(trainer said, regarding the improved form shown, gelding benefited from the experience of its first run and had also strengthened up between its two races)". :rolleyes:

Enemy Number One, the secrets of the UK's most feared professional punter, by Patrick Veitch, reveals nothing, perhaps because he has no secrets, except horses running very badly, and then running very well, for reasons known only to him.

del roy · 27-02-2021 11:18am

Morgans wrote: »

Interesting. One of the biggest certainties (with hindsight of course) this year was Royale Pagaille at Haydock. What turned out to be a high 160s horse running against soon-to-be-retired plodders. Drifted from 5/4 to 11/5 SP. Those who backed him all week into 5/4 weren't wrong. Sams Adventure, running today, was punted against him. Goshen last weekend is another high profile example, drifted from 5/2-100/30.

If you concentrate on backing winners first, leave the price worry about itself. Of course the bigger price the better, and of course the more you beat the SP the better.

The idea of value centres on each punter being able to make their own market, judging the probability of each horse winning, with the largest discrepancy between your judgement and that available to bet on as the best source of success. If you rate one at 6s and he is available at 10s great. Doesnt mean that the 6/1 shot is the most likely winner of the race.

Also most punters are doing it as a hobby, pitting their wits and solving a puzzle, rather than a pure money-making scheme.

To bring it back to tips - Im warming to Glens of Antrim in the Mares Novice and took 20s last night And the one horse that I think will win today is Acapella Bourgoise - took 7/4. Shorter now, but I hope he drifts before the off.

Couldn't agree more, you have to learn to believe in your judgement if you think a horse is too big at 10/1 then it normally is.

Slattsy · 27-02-2021 1:16pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Awful ****e sign up offers out there. Will they get better closer to Cheltenham would you think? My "mother" wants to open a paddy power account

Yes my wife has taken an interest in horses lately.

del roy · 27-02-2021 2:57pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Yes my wife has taken an interest in horses lately.

and her sister/brother in law soon

Shemale · 27-02-2021 3:35pm

Tritonic looked good there, took 5/1 with Skybet for the Triumph

zpehtsfd · 27-02-2021 4:16pm

del roy wrote: »

I think you have to beat the bookies at the price at least 50% of the time and back enough winners just to stay ahead in this game.

Long term beating the price helps but at least 30% of them have to be winning.

Remember "you can't eat VALUE"

Regarding Graeme Rodway and drifters

I would stop listening to him after that statement, how many drifters win ? very very few.

Always wondered about this so I wrote a software program many moons ago (2008) that compared the tissue prices to the SP of all winning horses. All prices were taken off PP website. I didn't include any races where there was a NR < 14/1. Ran the program over 2 years. First year showed 66% of all winners had been backed and 68% for the second year. Only a few % showed no change in price.

Although only a small sample size i thought the results were interesting. Must have stuck in my head cause i run from horses that drift.

Shemale · 27-02-2021 4:38pm

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Always wondered about this so I wrote a software program many moons ago (2008) that compared the tissue prices to the SP of all winning horses. All prices were taken off PP website. I didn't include any races where there was a NR < 14/1. Ran the program over 2 years. First year showed 66% of all winners had been backed and 68% for the second year. Only a few % showed no change in price.

Although only a small sample size i thought the results were interesting. Must have stuck in my head cause i run from horses that drift.

By tissue prices do you mean the opening show? If so where did you get this?

Anniepowaaa · 27-02-2021 4:43pm

another nail in the royal pagaille coffin there

zpehtsfd · 27-02-2021 5:03pm

Shemale wrote: »

By tissue prices do you mean the opening show? If so where did you get this?

Sorry yes opening price (i knew someone would correct me on that but was too lazy to change it).

Got them off PP website evening before raceday.

Shemale · 27-02-2021 8:02pm

Anniepowaaa wrote: »

another nail in the royal pagaille coffin there

What are you on about?

marty whelan · 27-02-2021 8:08pm

anyone thinking campeador could be good bet for Martin Pipe? any improvement in ground should help

Shemale · 27-02-2021 8:37pm

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Sorry yes opening price (i knew someone would correct me on that but was too lazy to change it).

Got them off PP website evening before raceday.

Thanks.

I have been working on a database for about a year now, trying to speed it up at the moment and figure out the best and quickest data to display on the racecards.

The Mig · 27-02-2021 10:52pm

MOD NOTE

Back on topic folks.

This is not the place to be discussing a certain trainers love life and a potentially damaging pic which may or may not be real. Thanks

Limestone1 · 27-02-2021 10:53pm

Bet365 NRNB now
Paying best prices on top 3 in Champion Hurdle. Honeysuckle 11/4

Widdensushi · 27-02-2021 11:31pm

The Mig wrote: »

MOD NOTE

Back on topic folks.

This is not the place to be discussing a certain trainers love life and a potentially damaging pic which may or may not be real. Thanks

Surely trainers are relevant?

The Mig · 27-02-2021 11:35pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

Surely trainers are relevant?

They are if you want to mention one of his horses you’re backing.

Widdensushi · 27-02-2021 11:45pm

The Mig wrote: »

They are if you want to mention one of his horses you’re backing.

He has 59 entries, if all is not in order at his yard he is very relevant to Cheltenham discussion.

The Mig · 27-02-2021 11:56pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

He has 59 entries, if all is not in order at his yard he is very relevant to Cheltenham discussion.

Absolutely very relevant Widdensushi. No problem with you throwing up selections or discussing some of the runners from his stable.
Anything outside of that you might find yourself with a infraction.

So again, back on topic folks!

Morleystreet · 28-02-2021 12:00am

blackcard wrote: »

I wouldn't be taking those odds for the Prestbury Cup. I expect Ireland to do well enough in the Championship races but half the races are handicaps with Ireland having a minority of the runners. In a couple of the races, Ireland may only have one or two runners, in others maybe 4 or 5 out of 20 or so runners. I think the results have been a bit freakish the last couple of years and I don't think the handicapper will be kind. Even in some of the championship races, Irish horses will be vastly outnumbered. Ireland may have a lot of the favourites but if anything happens the favourite, Britain are best placed to win. If I got 2/1, I would be lumping it on Britain.

Just for info - UK are 9/2 and Ireland are 1/5. (PP - under specials).

Widdensushi · 28-02-2021 12:15am

Having backed petit moucher I hope any issues at the yard are resolved with positive outcomes soon, it would not be good for irish racing or racing in general for any other outcome.

EICVD · 28-02-2021 12:29am

Gordon tweeted that the IHRB are aware of the photo being circulated & he’s cooperating with the investigation, no statement that it’s not true though....

Slattsy · 28-02-2021 9:17am

Widdensushi wrote: »

Having backed petit moucher I hope any issues at the yard are resolved with positive outcomes soon, it would not be good for irish racing or racing in general for any other outcome.

Glens of Antrim a very interesting one on his run behind The Stattler. That's good form, and she didn't jump that day at all.

abarkie · 28-02-2021 9:31am

I was all for Us and Them last year

Seems have been quietly prepared for this year.

Anyone else think its a plot?

Slattsy · 28-02-2021 9:48am

abarkie wrote: »

I was all for Us and Them last year

Seems have been quietly prepared for this year.

Anyone else think its a plot?

Think a lot of us were on him last year!

longshotvalue · 28-02-2021 10:34am

abarkie wrote: »

I was all for Us and Them last year

Seems have been quietly prepared for this year.

Anyone else think its a plot?

Was all about him last year. He'll be of a lower mark , in a race where race form is huge. Its a NRNB advantage here, JOB wont be sending him without a chance. Ground looks to be better this year as well. (long rage forecast)

abarkie · 28-02-2021 1:39pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Was all about him last year. He'll be of a lower mark , in a race where race form is huge. Its a NRNB advantage here, JOB wont be sending him without a chance. Ground looks to be better this year as well. (long rage forecast)

Looks like 25/1 across the board

Labaik · 28-02-2021 7:54pm

Hopefully another few lbs dropped for Call Me Lord after todays effort

Hulk Hands · 01-03-2021 1:06pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I would not recommend Patrick Veitch's book (not Vietch). There is little or nothing to learn from it.
Veitch started off with Exponential (2002), a 2yo gelding who ran 13th of 13 on its debut, beaten 17 lengths. In its second race on 16th August 2004 it opened at 100/1, and started at 8/1. Google says Veitch made almost a quarter of a million on the race. "(trainer said, regarding the improved form shown, gelding benefited from the experience of its first run and had also strengthened up between its two races)". :rolleyes:

Enemy Number One, the secrets of the UK's most feared professional punter, by Patrick Veitch, reveals nothing, perhaps because he has no secrets, except horses running very badly, and then running very well, for reasons known only to him.

That's not the point. Veitch explains simply in the first few paragraphs the basics behind value punting over the pursuit for winners. I could've picked a dozen different books, I just went with the highest profile individual that came to mind in a split second, while ranting on a longer post. Unfortunately the true Don of the game, Tony Bloom, doesn't tend to pen his football memoirs.

Do you always correct typo's? I thought mods frowned upon that?

The Tetrarch · 01-03-2021 1:19pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Do you always correct typo's? I thought mods frowned upon that?

Mods frown on others moderating the forum.

NaiveMelodies · 02-03-2021 2:22pm

Will Blackmore get the Envoi Allen ride now?

The Mig · 02-03-2021 2:27pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Will Blackmore get the Envoi Allen ride now?

Jack keeping the ride

The Rooster · 02-03-2021 3:35pm

The Mig wrote: »

Jack keeping the ride

The guy from Cheveley Park said Davy or Jack on Sky, depending on fitness. He said Davy's name first, but no idea if that means anything!

Coneygree · 02-03-2021 3:39pm

The Rooster wrote: »

The guy from Cheveley Park said Davy or Jack on Sky, depending on fitness. He said Davy's name first, but no idea if that means anything!

Sure Davey is out for a while anyway so Jack will be on for Cheltenham.

realdanbreen · 02-03-2021 4:06pm

Don't suppose the odds will fluctuate much on Elliots horses as a result of all the hysteria?

The Rooster · 02-03-2021 4:40pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Don't suppose the odds will fluctuate much on Elliots horses as a result of all the hysteria?

A bloke from one of the betting companies (can't remember which one, other than it began with "Bet"

and they are NRNB and BOG) was on telly earlier, said they are being very cautious and that everyone else seems to be the same (those who are NRNB anyway).

He said it'll be on the day that there might be value for these horses.

realdanbreen · 03-03-2021 12:04am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Don't suppose the odds will fluctuate much on Elliots horses as a result of all the hysteria?

I would imagine Davy pointing out on prime time that the horses would be affected by moving yards would affect the odds.

carq · 03-03-2021 8:57am

Its a bit unprecdented!
Lots of odds on favourites changing yards, possibly changing feeds, stable hands all 2 weeks before the fest.

I will be opposing all the horses moving for the festival i think.

Slattsy · 03-03-2021 9:05am

carq wrote: »

Its a bit unprecdented!
Lots of odds on favourites changing yards, possibly changing feeds, stable hands all 2 weeks before the fest.

I will be opposing all the horses moving for the festival i think.

Could very well be a good angle.

Backstreet Moyes · 03-03-2021 9:46am

Anybody gone off elliots former horse's over the disruption so close to the festival

Have Zanhiyr and Ballyadam backed but thinking of cashing out

akelly02 · 03-03-2021 10:20am

as paul nicholls put it, its not ideal, definately not a plus.

feed, training regime etc will all be changed. some horses might transition well, some might not.

as paul says, some of the horses he got off willie took the best part of a year to settle in

Motivator · 03-03-2021 10:21am

The markets for all the races has been turned on its head now, I can’t believe there hasn’t been a bigger reaction in the betting. I was full sure Envoi Allen would go evens or a shade of odds against yesterday. What’s happening is absolutely massive and the markets aren’t reflecting it. Someone mentioned that one of the bookies said it’ll be on the day when things could change but these are major changes we’re seeing.

There’s no way of knowing what way these horses are going to be affected but I know myself from a visit to Willie’s yard a few years ago that he has to have everything relaxed in the yard, horses are so highly strung and they pick up on everything. Imagine the chaos in Elliott’s yard the last few days? Those horses are now away from their normal stable, normal groom/work rider, in a completely different environment ahead of a huge two weeks of preparation and then they’ve to go travelling again to the UK.

I’ll be avoiding Elliott’s horses, leave them win but I couldn’t trust them now. Ruby said Willie takes his time with any horse that comes into the yard. French Asseel was only put through serious work last week or the week before and he was in the yard since the first week of January. Nichols got horses from Willie and he said it’s taken them an age to get comfortable and used to the new yard.

The Tetrarch · 03-03-2021 10:35am

This may be off topic, and I could be reported, but it was antepost.

Reading The Clean Sweep by Arthur Webb, a book about the Irish Hospitals Sweepstakes ...

"This clerical enthusiasm (for gambling) is the source of a tale in the repertoire of almost every Irish priest - one of many about the unconventional Father Healy of Bray. Father Healy had often stretched the limits of permitted sporting enthusiasm; he reached a breaking-point when he proposed to ride his donkey in the local fete. His bishop dropped a hint that donkey-racing was undignified. Father Healy persisted. The long-tried bishop sent a peremptory demand that Father Healy should withdraw his mount from the unsuitable affair. Father Healy was reluctantly compelled to obey, but he had the last word. IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR INSTRUCTIONS, he telegraphed the bishop, I HAVE SCRATCHED MY ASS."

carq · 03-03-2021 10:52am

Ok so wheres the value?

Supreme -oppose ballyadam
Appreciate it more value ?
Metier / blue lord /dreal deal?

Champ hurdle -w/o abra
Jason the millitant?
Aspire tower

National hunt-w/o galvin
Latest exhibition antepost?

Marsh - w/o envoi
Lots in betting who may not go here so maybe calue antepost if you know race plans

Pertempts - w/o bosses oscar
?

Paddy plate - w/o farclas and conflated
Plenty of options here

Triumph - w/o zanahiyr nd quilixious
French aseel?
Herros du seuil?

Slattsy · 03-03-2021 11:09am

Motivator wrote: »

The markets for all the races has been turned on its head now, I can’t believe there hasn’t been a bigger reaction in the betting. I was full sure Envoi Allen would go evens or a shade of odds against yesterday. What’s happening is absolutely massive and the markets aren’t reflecting it. Someone mentioned that one of the bookies said it’ll be on the day when things could change but these are major changes we’re seeing.

There’s no way of knowing what way these horses are going to be affected but I know myself from a visit to Willie’s yard a few years ago that he has to have everything relaxed in the yard, horses are so highly strung and they pick up on everything. Imagine the chaos in Elliott’s yard the last few days? Those horses are now away from their normal stable, normal groom/work rider, in a completely different environment ahead of a huge two weeks of preparation and then they’ve to go travelling again to the UK.

I’ll be avoiding Elliott’s horses, leave them win but I couldn’t trust them now. Ruby said Willie takes his time with any horse that comes into the yard. French Asseel was only put through serious work last week or the week before and he was in the yard since the first week of January. Nichols got horses from Willie and he said it’s taken them an age to get comfortable and used to the new yard.

All the serious bits of work have been completed at this stage, which is the positive. Barry Geraghty said it last night on ATR, it absolutely wont bother many horses, but it could with some, particularly younger horses. Its very hard to know what to do betting wise.

If EA goes 6/4 (wishful thinking) i might have to have a go!!

famagusta · 03-03-2021 11:25am

akelly02 wrote: »

as paul nicholls put it, its not ideal, definately not a plus.

feed, training regime etc will all be changed. some horses might transition well, some might not.

as paul says, some of the horses he got off willie took the best part of a year to settle in

Lads,

don't be getting too caught up on all this change of stables thing,

With the big trainers, especially mullins and elliott, a lot of the horses go into pretraining yards to get them 80% + fit,

I have seen only in the last few months a couple of horses at a yard that won a race for mullins a few weeks later, they are more adaptable than you think.

I'm not saying its not an issue but maybe not as big as you think is all!

Coneygree · 03-03-2021 11:54am

famagusta wrote: »

Lads,

don't be getting too caught up on all this change of stables thing,

With the big trainers, especially mullins and elliott, a lot of the horses go into pretraining yards to get them 80% + fit,

I have seen only in the last few months a couple of horses at a yard that won a race for mullins a few weeks later, they are more adaptable than you think.

I'm not saying its not an issue but maybe not as big as you think is all!

Sssh we need people to start backing Shan Blue and Chantry House!

Slattsy · 03-03-2021 12:07pm

Coneygree wrote: »

Sssh we need people to start backing Shan Blue and Chantry House!

Shan Blue has been backed.

FatRat · 03-03-2021 12:51pm

Betting suggest Royale Pagaille is going to the NH Chase. Correct call imo.

And because I lose my bets if he doesn't.

abarkie · 03-03-2021 12:59pm

Cheltenham Weights announced

Shemale · 03-03-2021 1:04pm

FatRat wrote: »

Betting suggest Royale Pagaille is going to the NH Chase. Correct call imo.

And because I lose my bets if he doesn't.

I backed him in everything he was entered in NRNB, should win that very snugly.

Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

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