Random EV thoughts.....

MJohnston · 24-02-2021 12:18pm

KCross wrote: »

In reality there isnt any ban yet. Just alot of talk and click bait articles about it.

The 2025 and 2030 regulations are driving the shift away from ICE to hybrid and (PH)EV though.

Well, like I said, in reality we are governed by the bar that the EU set, and their's is already more stealthily aggressive with the fuel economy standards than a 2030 new ICE ban in Ireland would be. Effectively, I'm not really sure that Ireland is in control of EV adoption in Ireland.

What changes are proposed? I'd have my doubts about any changes because it took years and years of negotiation to agree to the 2020/2025/2030 limits and they are in law already. Car manufacturers are a massive lobby group in the EU (Germany and France mainly) and they will not "allow" any further tightening of those regulations in such a short period of time.

e.g. If a complete ICE ban occured in 2025 it would effectively put them all out of business as it would take them much longer than that to pivot their business all the way over to EV's. It might be what you want to see but it simply wont happen... Merkel and Macron are not going to allow those massive businesses to fail in their countries.

It's part of the Euro 7 standards that should be presented later this year:
https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/16/vda-worried-about-the-euro-7-emissions-standard/

You may be right about the historical power of the car industry lobby, but I have my doubts that it's still powerful enough to prevent these kinds of changes. And I'd imagine even these rumblings will have those manufacturers rethinking their 5-10 year plans for electric switchover.

Most manufacturers will have no issues meeting the 2025 regulations with their current plans.

2030 is going to be harder alright and you will need alot more PHEV's and BEV's to meet those regulations so I can see both of those being progressed side by side.

From what I've read, even most PHEVs will struggle to meet the 2030 standards, and a lot of them will fail the 2025 ones too.

This all ties to what I'm getting at though — effectively it doesn't really matter much what the Irish government does, because there's not really any practical way for us to be much more aggressive in standards than the EU.

What we're in control of is the 'carrots' of electric adoption — grants and charging infrastructure. The grants we have here are extremely generous. The charging infrastructure is imo at or just below capacity.

I'll also repeat what I've said before — I believe we're in that really awkward phase of EV adoption, because we have quite a load of EV owners concentrated in some specific places, but not enough adoption for their to be an economic case for a much denser charging network.

KCross · 24-02-2021 12:45pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Well, like I said, in reality we are governed by the bar that the EU set, and their's is already more stealthily aggressive with the fuel economy standards than a 2030 new ICE ban in Ireland would be. Effectively, I'm not really sure that Ireland is in control of EV adoption in Ireland.

You can be absolutely certain of that.
Nothing at all would be done in this area in Ireland if the EU was not pushing the agenda and imposing fines etc.

MJohnston wrote: »

It's part of the Euro 7 standards that should be presented later this year:
https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/16/vda-worried-about-the-euro-7-emissions-standard/

I'd put that in the click bait pile.
Lots of ifs, buts, maybes in there too. I know you said its a rumour so fair enough.

MJohnston wrote: »

You may be right about the historical power of the car industry lobby, but I have my doubts that it's still powerful enough to prevent these kinds of changes.

Its not just the manufacturer lobby groups. The political leaders will also not want to see their local industries die and have massive unemployment. Car manufacturers are a massive employer (millions of employees) in those countries. If there is any hint at all that the industry is under a threat the politicians will shy away when it comes to endorsing/tightening regs that accelerate the current 2025/2030 targets.

MJohnston wrote: »

And I'd imagine even these rumblings will have those manufacturers rethinking their 5-10 year plans for electric switchover.

For sure. All the car manufacturers decision making and R&D spend is directly linked to "how can we meet our EU emissions targets to avoid fines".

Euro 7 is going to be incredibly difficult (probably impossible) to meet for a pure ICE car. PHEV and BEV will be required.

MJohnston wrote: »

From what I've read, even most PHEVs will struggle to meet the 2030 standards, and a lot of them will fail the 2025 ones too.

Current PHEV's yes. But they are steadily increasing the range on those and as battery tech improves I'd say they will manage to meet the regs alright.

e.g. New PHEV's are now approaching the EV range of the first Gen Leaf! The first batch of PHEV's would have struggled to get 20km!

MJohnston wrote: »

This all ties to what I'm getting at though — effectively it doesn't really matter much what the Irish government does, because there's not really any practical way for us to be much more aggressive in standards than the EU.

What we're in control of is the 'carrots' of electric adoption — grants and charging infrastructure. The grants we have here are extremely generous. The charging infrastructure is imo at or just below capacity.

I'll also repeat what I've said before — I believe we're in that really awkward phase of EV adoption, because we have quite a load of EV owners concentrated in some specific places, but not enough adoption for their to be an economic case for a much denser charging network.

I agree with all that.

liamog · 24-02-2021 2:28pm

The only difference the Irish government can make is to incentivise whether an EU EV get's sold here versus being sold in Croatia.
We essentially have to compete to obtain the cleaner sale which will help with our own transport emission target.

the_amazing_raisin · 24-02-2021 4:54pm

McGiver wrote: »

All these things are sensible IF they pushed EVs AS WELL. Take EVs out of the equation and it's bollox.

Also they should be all going electric buses, but are not - all toxic diesel buses all over Ireland. Ireland is so behind in this, it's embarrassing. Whole Europe is full of electric buses, FFS Solaris, a Polish company, manufactures them and delivers them to Denmark, Netherlands, Germany etc. Another Polish company supplies huge fast chargers for electric bus depots.

The Irish EV charging infrastructure is getting to a similar position, it's an embarrasment...

Absolutely agree on this, we do need better public cycling infrstructure, and better (and elctrified) public transportation

But there's still the unfortunate truth that many people are going to need to commute long distances because of house prices or the nature of their jobs.

What Ireland can do for those people is incentivise them to go electric through scrappage schemes and fund public charging infrastructure to remove any form of charger anxiety

slave1 · 24-02-2021 11:52pm

...or the other Paddy way, tax the sh1te out of ICE vehicles and Dino fuel

AndyBoBandy · 25-02-2021 5:48pm

Just seen on Facebook (yeah, I know), that Hyundai are to swap out 82,000 batteries in their Kona EV's due to fire risk. (some Ioniq's too)

will cost them $900m

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/02/24/hyundai-to-replace-kona-ev-battery-packs-recall/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmllLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAbInulyTZtvMgCavE4LnU8hO9WKkHF9gjJhtHmL27FKmBf2cp1W1JOHgQk3EJTSkneDuNBg9B2JONHk-HnpZY3hvTkmMK1Gc9QgChk3VddvHBgapycpPBkgbEj0Tdn6pp84IkeFK2h_RVi1gdD90fUu0LFNtLETIXmt1XmPKvw-

ouch!!

25-02-2021 7:06pm

that article says it is an issue with Cells, not pack which makes things difficult.
maybe the packs could be repurposed safely for re-usage as energy storage being charged more slowly.
I'm probably doing my calculations incorrectly but I think assuming a 50/50 split between small and large batteries it gives 14.5 times the maximum output of Turlough Hill over one hour.

McGiver · 25-02-2021 11:49pm

cruisey1987 wrote:

What Ireland can do for those people is incentivise them to go electric through scrappage schemes and fund public charging infrastructure to remove any form of charger anxiety

Stick, stick, stick and more stick. Then some carrot.

Stick
1. Motor tax based on mileage AND PM/NOx/CO2 emissions (a product of the two). Zero for EVs as the emmision component is zero.

2. VRT based on PM/CO2/NOx emissions. Zero for EVs.

3. Increase fuel duty. Diesel first and rapidly. Tax diesel to death but give tax breaks for hauliers, delivery services and farmers for a while until tech catches up (to prevent inflation of the whole economy). Zero fuel duty for EVs, obviously.

Carrot m
1. Scrappage
2. Purchase subsidy - zero VAT / VAT return
3. Legislation - cut red tape in the charging infrastructure market, mandate chargers for certain types of settings, tax incentives for charger installation, regulations for community based chargers, regulations for apartment tenants/owners charger installation
4. Fund and/or tender out arterial charging infrastructure roll-out (no DIY!)

the_amazing_raisin · 26-02-2021 12:50pm

McGiver wrote: »

Stick, stick, stick and more stick. Then some carrot.

Stick
1. Motor tax based on mileage AND PM/NOx/CO2 emissions (a product of the two). Zero for EVs as the emmision component is zero.

2. VRT based on PM/CO2/NOx emissions. Zero for EVs.

3. Increase fuel duty. Diesel first and rapidly. Tax diesel to death but give tax breaks for hauliers, delivery services and farmers for a while until tech catches up (to prevent inflation of the whole economy). Zero fuel duty for EVs, obviously.

Carrot m
1. Scrappage
2. Purchase subsidy - zero VAT / VAT return
3. Legislation - cut red tape in the charging infrastructure market, mandate chargers for certain types of settings, tax incentives for charger installation, regulations for community based chargers, regulations for apartment tenants/owners charger installation
4. Fund and/or tender out arterial charging infrastructure roll-out (no DIY!)

Well you've got my vote if you ever run for government

I would also say that the VAT break on diesel will need to be steadily reduced down to 0 to encourage businesses to go electric. You could match it against availibility of electric trucks and vans

MJohnston · 26-02-2021 1:15pm

McGiver wrote: »

Stick, stick, stick and more stick. Then some carrot.

Stick
1. Motor tax based on mileage AND PM/NOx/CO2 emissions (a product of the two). Zero for EVs as the emmision component is zero.

The emission component of an EV is not zero, not yet. Otherwise fine - although EVs are currently heavier than the comparable ICE, contributing more to road wear (which isn't what motor tax is for, but there has to be a recognition of that somewhere).

2. VRT based on PM/CO2/NOx emissions. Zero for EVs.

3. Increase fuel duty. Diesel first and rapidly. Tax diesel to death but give tax breaks for hauliers, delivery services and farmers for a while until tech catches up (to prevent inflation of the whole economy). Zero fuel duty for EVs, obviously.

Carrot m
1. Scrappage
2. Purchase subsidy - zero VAT / VAT return
3. Legislation - cut red tape in the charging infrastructure market, mandate chargers for certain types of settings, tax incentives for charger installation, regulations for community based chargers, regulations for apartment tenants/owners charger installation
4. Fund and/or tender out arterial charging infrastructure roll-out (no DIY!)

I'd imagine scrappage is a post-2030 project, I'd say there's no chance that should happen before that.

Much as I'd love to switch everyone to EVs within a year, there's no country on Earth that could manage that. The gradual adoption is intentional.

the_amazing_raisin · 26-02-2021 2:21pm

MJohnston wrote: »

The emission component of an EV is not zero, not yet. Otherwise fine - although EVs are currently heavier than the comparable ICE, contributing more to road wear (which isn't what motor tax is for, but there has to be a recognition of that somewhere).

Well if we're doing lifecycle emissions for EVs then ICE cars should be taxed as such as well. Imagine what the road tax for a diesel Tiguan if they had to pay for the emissions of the tanker that brought it to Ireland and the fuel truck that drove the fuel to the garage. Not to mention all the emissions involved in building the car :eek:

Not saying lifecycle pollution isn't important, quite the contrary. But generally when paper start talking about EV "pollution" they forget the lifecycle pollution of the ICE equivalents

I do agree that motor tax will need to change, mostly because the government can't afford to have every car on the lowest rate. I'm not sure I buy the whole road wear argument, especially when there's hundereds of HGVs doing much more damage.

I feel like a mileage based road tax would be best for EVs, or a flat rate and an overhaul of motorway tolling to do it on a per exit basis

Busman Paddy Lasty · 26-02-2021 2:32pm

cruisey1987 wrote: »

I feel like a mileage based road tax would be best for EVs, or a flat rate and an overhaul of motorway tolling to do it on a per exit basis

Mileage based tax will create red tape and penalise efficient cars if it's not linked back to motor tax category though.

Fuel tax is a proxy for mileage, efficiency, driving style or any factor that increases consumption. Administering this is passive when paying it at the fuel pump. More elegant solution.

the_amazing_raisin · 26-02-2021 2:44pm

Busman Paddy Lasty wrote: »

Mileage based tax will create red tape and penalise efficient cars if it's not linked back to motor tax category though.

Fuel tax is a proxy for mileage, efficiency, driving style or any factor that increases consumption. Administering this is passive when paying it at the fuel pump. More elegant solution.

True, but it won't work for EVs, so in the end something will have to replace it

Exit based tolling is probably simpler to implement and more difficult to evade. That'll only find the motorway network though

I think the whole "motor tax pays for roads" argument doesn't really work anymore since it's all lumped into one budget, but the road network needs to be maintained and if they eliminated road tax then the money would just be taxed in a different way

Busman Paddy Lasty · 26-02-2021 3:06pm

cruisey1987 wrote: »

True, but it won't work for EVs, so in the end something will have to replace it

Exit based tolling is probably simpler to implement and more difficult to evade. That'll only find the motorway network though

I think the whole "motor tax pays for roads" argument doesn't really work anymore since it's all lumped into one budget, but the road network needs to be maintained and if they eliminated road tax then the money would just be taxed in a different way

Oh intended as a method to promote EVs and gradually get rid of ripping off the motorist for no good reason.

MJohnston · 26-02-2021 3:33pm

cruisey1987 wrote: »

I'm not sure I buy the whole road wear argument, especially when there's hundereds of HGVs doing much more damage.

For me it's about cost to society. Motor tax is wholly a carbon tax currently, but there are other costs to society of someone using a vehicle that need to be accounted for.

Health costs of NOx emissions (and Eamon Ryan should be hung by his party for pushing diesels early in the 2000s, which has massively contributed to the rise of these) and potentially micropollution.
Safety costs due to the presence of vehicles.
Costs to local authorities due to road maintenance.
etc.

I love EVs, but they only solve the local macro-emissions problem, so I don't think us EV owners should ever be let fully off of the annual taxation hook. A mileage-based tax would work for me, given that a lot of the non-emissions costs accrue due to vehicle usage, rather than their mere existence.

26-02-2021 3:40pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Health costs of NOx emissions (and Eamon Ryan should be hung by his party for pushing diesels early in the 2000s, which has massively contributed to the rise of these) and potentially micropollution.
Safety costs due to the presence of vehicles.
Costs to local authorities due to road maintenance.
etc.

it is a misapprehension that cars destroy road surfaces, lorries and especially overloaded lorries destroy road surfaces.
the new regulations from 2022 mean that for new cars you will need to try very hard to crash in to someone or something else. the car will prevent or mitigate many accidents.
EVs produce next to no pollution(dependent on electricity source). brake pads barely engage to produce brake dust.

the_amazing_raisin · 26-02-2021 3:56pm

Fastned just procured some cash

https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/26/fastned-closes-financing-round-with-e150-million/

€150 million (10 times ESB eCars funding) should buy a lot of chargers with that amount

Fingers corssed they come to Ireland soon, they're already looking for locations

KCross · 26-02-2021 4:13pm

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Fastned just procured some cash

https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/26/fastned-closes-financing-round-with-e150-million/

€150 million (10 times ESB eCars funding) should buy a lot of chargers with that amount

Fingers corssed they come to Ireland soon, they're already looking for locations

Fastned seem to be very focussed on an ever increasing circle around their home country (Belgium, Switzerland, Germany).

I'd see them going into France in particular but also Spain, Portugal and Italy before they moved into our uneconomic proposition, we can but hope!

26-02-2021 4:14pm

MJohnston wrote: »

The emission component of an EV is not zero, not yet. Otherwise fine - although EVs are currently heavier than the comparable ICE, contributing more to road wear (which isn't what motor tax is for, but there has to be a recognition of that somewhere).

I'd imagine scrappage is a post-2030 project, I'd say there's no chance that should happen before that.

Much as I'd love to switch everyone to EVs within a year, there's no country on Earth that could manage that. The gradual adoption is intentional.

Personally, I would prefer if they didn't do scrappage, instead give tax incentives to de-ICE vehicles that are recent and viable to convert.

timsey tiger · 26-02-2021 4:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Personally, I would prefer if they didn't do scrappage, instead give tax incentives to de-ICE vehicles that are recent and viable to convert.

Only ever going to be niche, given the immense expense and design compromises meaning the vehicles are going to be of limited utility.

No point in giving incentives to things that will ultimately never achieve scale. imo

26-02-2021 4:28pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

Only ever going to be niche, given the immense expense and design compromises meaning the vehicles are going to be of limited utility.

No point in giving incentives to things that will ultimately never achieve scale. imo

Depends on the vehicle, with a decent tax incentive and low resale value of the ICE, the de-ICE'd vehicle could still be worthwhile doing, crossovers & SUV's make the perfect platform with their already raised floors.

MJohnston · 26-02-2021 8:19pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

it is a misapprehension that cars destroy road surfaces, lorries and especially overloaded lorries destroy road surfaces.
the new regulations from 2022 mean that for new cars you will need to try very hard to crash in to someone or something else. the car will prevent or mitigate many accidents.
EVs produce next to no pollution(dependent on electricity source). brake pads barely engage to produce brake dust.

None of that suggests that anything I mentioned will be completely eliminated by a switch to EVs.

the_amazing_raisin · 26-02-2021 8:29pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Personally, I would prefer if they didn't do scrappage, instead give tax incentives to de-ICE vehicles that are recent and viable to convert.

Offer scrappage on older vehicles starting with euro 4 and 5 first. Get the most polluting cars off the road. As we get towards 2030, extend it to euro 6 which will be getting old by then anyway

It's worth considering there are other improvements besides emissions. The safety systems in modern cars are a big improvement over cars from 10 years ago. Moving to newer cars could improve overall road safety

26-02-2021 8:36pm

MJohnston wrote: »

None of that suggests that anything I mentioned will be completely eliminated by a switch to EVs.

I can't help if you want people to be wrapped up in cotton wool from cradle to grave.

JohnC. · 28-02-2021 6:57pm

I know some here would like better signage for EV parking. Let's hope for better than this.

the_amazing_raisin · 28-02-2021 9:19pm

JohnC. wrote: »

I know some here would like better signage for EV parking. Let's hope for better than this.

I wouldn't even call that green, more of a turquoise

redcup342 · 01-03-2021 3:19pm

Ah Americans ..... I guess this is comparitively clean :pac:

Took this when I was in San Francisco

timsey tiger · 01-03-2021 3:34pm

redcup342 wrote: »

Ah Americans ..... I guess this is comparitively clean :pac:

Took this when I was in San Francisco

They are all clean when they are parked up

01-03-2021 5:04pm

At least it has an NCT :P

liamog · 01-03-2021 6:14pm

I may have seen the worst ever picture of EV charging from an automotive mag AutoExpress

Citroen%20e-C4%202021%20UK-14.jpg

Random EV thoughts.....

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