Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Zubeneschamali · 01-11-2018 3:57pm

swampgas wrote: »

I'll believe it when Barnier says it. Otherwise it's just spin.

I think that there is reason for optimism on a deal in November.

The FT just has one detail wrong: it is not the EU which is about to move on the NI backstop, it is the UK.

interlocked · 01-11-2018 4:01pm

Home office reigning in Caroline Nokes comments on rights-to-work checks now as well.

I cant find the full video of her appearance but the above gives an illustration of the petulance and hubris of this lady.

She is simmering, at her appearance at the Home Affairs Select Committee, after being exposed for having no answers to the most basic question about identifying the eligibility of EU nationals to work in the UK after Brexit.

She gave a garbled answer about it being up to employers to check but conceding that she had no idea exactly how they were supposed to do so.

http://https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/30/employers-required-brexit-check-eu-nationals-right-to-work-uk[

This contradicted an previous Home Office statement and they have now contradicted her again this morning.

Caroline Nokes, remember, is the Immigration Minister.

Still, she has a majority of over 18,000 in her constituency, if the Tories put a rosette on a lamp post in Romsey, it would be elected. Competency is such an overrated virtue anyway..........

An Ciarraioch · 01-11-2018 4:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

A puff piece without concrete detail "A UK-wide customs union could potentially remove the need for an NI-only backstop".

Kermit.de.frog · 01-11-2018 4:18pm

interlocked wrote: »

Home office reigning in Caroline Nokes comments on rights-to-work checks now as well.

Caroline Nokes, remember, is the Immigration Minister.

She was chief executive of the National Pony Society.

She knows what she's doing.

Imreoir2 · 01-11-2018 5:02pm

charlie14 wrote: »

Yet here we are 10 months later with negotiations on a backstop still on-going because the issue was allowed to be kicked down the road allowing talks to move to Phase 2. Something the British were desperate to do in December 2017.

What difference does it make? It was better to show flexibility at the time. The final deal will include a backstop one way or another or there will be no deal. If they refuse to sign a deal including a backstop when they are mere months away from a catastrophy of their own making, then why would you assume they would have been more inclined to agree a legal text for the backstop months ago had Ireland been intransigent and insisted on a finalised agreed legal text before allowing talks to move forward?

Sam Russell · 01-11-2018 5:32pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What difference does it make? It was better to show flexibility at the time. The final deal will include a backstop one way or another or there will be no deal. If they refuse to sign a deal including a backstop when they are mere months away from a catastrophy of their own making, then why would you assume they would have been more inclined to agree a legal text for the backstop months ago had Ireland been intransigent and insisted on a finalised agreed legal text before allowing talks to move forward?

As a result of their game play, they have run out of time. Consequently, the WA is what always was going to be, and the paper dealing with future trading relationship is a four page gloss of what could be with no details and little meaning.

Not a good result for the UK. But a win is a win - they showed us their grit and determination and they will have their blue passports (printed in France).

Imreoir2 · 01-11-2018 5:40pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

Yep, the EU will surely sell out Ireland, the UK press have been predicting that for well over a year.

Just wait, any day now...

Look, over there, it's happening!!!! ...Oh wait, thats just a seagull, nevermind...

Angry bird · 01-11-2018 6:27pm

The FT has proven itself to be rather unreliable and just a mouthpiece for the Brits. The Brits have proven themselves to be a byword for untrustworthy. All those other nations and trading entities will be dying to agree terms with a shower whose word means nothing. But sure, waving union jacks, woohooo

Kermit.de.frog · 01-11-2018 6:49pm

Downing Street is making plans to steamroll a Brexit deal past Cabinet amid hopes at No 10 that the European Union is inching towards a crucial concession, insiders believe.

Senior figures in Government are convinced that Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, will drop his insistence on a Northern Ireland-only backstop.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-no-10-plans-to-push-deal-past-cabinet-as-hopes-rise-of-talks-breakthrough-a3977781.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1541074412

Something is afoot.

Spook_ie · 01-11-2018 6:51pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

New Free State where exactly?

Probably somewhere in the North East I would think.

Spook_ie · 01-11-2018 6:59pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Wishful thinking. We would obv just veto it.

Ireland AFAIK can't veto the withdrawal agreement but we could veto the following trade talks.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/

It's an older link but unless it's totally wrong, well then.

EKRIUQ · 01-11-2018 7:07pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-no-10-plans-to-push-deal-past-cabinet-as-hopes-rise-of-talks-breakthrough-a3977781.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1541074412

Something is afoot.

And then says

In Brussels, senior officials denied they were ready to make the concession, with one saying the British proposals could not be made to work in time to draw up a legally binding deal.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-11-2018 7:10pm

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1058054167594446852

I'm tellin yeh, moves are underway by the EU to back off a NI specific backstop.

That would have been a bullet proof solution in terms of the border.

This is no surprise. Ireland could have stopped the process in December - it didn't.

flutered · 01-11-2018 7:25pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

tony connolly or bloomberg for the inside info, all kites coming from the uk, is to keep sterling high

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 7:30pm

Enzokk wrote: »

We couldn't get a legal agreement in December last year because it is part of the Withdrawal Agreement and as of last week or so it was, at least according to the UK, about 95% complete. Even if we have gotten written agreement on the border it would still not be agreed until the whole WA is, and this needs to be approved by all those parliaments.

So while we could have gotten a signed agreement you can bet the DUP would have collapsed the government due to it.

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.

What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

bilston · 01-11-2018 7:32pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Aaron Banks to face a criminal investigation

This could be a lot bigger than it looks on the surface. Especially the 'other crimes' that are mentioned. There's a strong feeling on the other side of the Atlantic that there will be similar happenings after election day.

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

Kermit.de.frog · 01-11-2018 7:37pm

BREAKING in the FT

EU offers London compromise over NI backstop, May expected to indicate acceptance next week.

https://www.ft.com/content/ee75a230-dde7-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c

Told yeh, you don't get briefings like that unless something is up.

16 MINUTES AGO

...EU Brexit negotiators are exploring a compromise on a plan for Northern Ireland that would give the UK stronger guarantees that a customs border would not be needed along the Irish Sea.

The tentative proposal, briefed to EU ambassadors on Wednesday and floated with UK officials, is intended to overcome the dispute between London and Brussels over “backstop” provisions to avoid a hard border in the island of Ireland.

In a concession to London, the EU would lay out the full terms of a “bare-bones” all-UK customs union in Britain’s exit agreement, avoiding the need to negotiate a second customs treaty after Brexit, according to several diplomats familiar with the plan. The stop-gap measure would remain in place until a permanent UK-EU trade agreement is agreed.

The backstop is the single biggest impediment to a deal on Britain’s withdrawal treaty, since it constrains what independent trade policy the UK can pursue after Brexit if it wants to avoid internal market barriers with Northern Ireland.

Under the backstop compromise, Northern Ireland would remain in a deep customs union with the bloc, applying the union’s full “customs code” and following single market regulations for goods and agri-food products.

At the same time the UK would be in a more “bare-bones” customs arrangement with the EU, in which it would apply a common external tariff on imports from outside the union and rules of origin.
...

Tell me how · 01-11-2018 7:38pm

bilston wrote: »

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

Its fairly messed up when we are watching real life events and looking for/expecting twists like in a TV show.

Real life was supposed to be way more boring.

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 7:38pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1058054167594446852

I'm tellin yeh, moves are underway by the EU to back off a NI specific backstop.

That would have been a bullet proof solution in terms of the border.

This is no surprise. Ireland could have stopped the process in December - it didn't.

Isn't unless and until just the backstop reworded?

murphaph · 01-11-2018 7:39pm

charlie14 wrote: »

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.

What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

Parliament can amend that legislation if it wants. The prospect of a no deal might focus minds.

We simply could not have pulled the brakes in December. We would have lost all credibility and support from our EU partners.

prawnsambo · 01-11-2018 7:40pm

bilston wrote: »

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

There almost certainly is. The issue is with the source of his financing of the Leave.eu and other campaigns. There have been strong suspicions that a lot of this money came from Russia. But it's not just the money. There have been serious concerns about botnets run from Russia and even suggestions that brexit was used as a trial run for the US presidential election. That stuff is obviously very off the wall, but the financial support issues appear to be well founded.

murphaph · 01-11-2018 7:42pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

There almost certainly is. The issue is with the source of his financing of the Leave.eu and other campaigns. There have been strong suspicions that a lot of this money came from Russia. But it's not just the money. There have been serious concerns about botnets run from Russia and even suggestions that brexit was used as a trial run for the US presidential election. That stuff is obviously very off the wall, but the financial support issues appear to be well founded.

It's not off the wall at all. Ask the Dutch what Russian IT agents get up to. It's a lot easier to defeat the west when you can directly target suggestible westerners. Wasn't possible during the old cold war.

lawred2 · 01-11-2018 7:43pm

Is that not an all UK backstop?

Kermit.de.frog · 01-11-2018 7:44pm

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1058062299758555136

That link should work.

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 7:46pm

charlie14 wrote: »

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.

What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

A legal binding agreement and a gentleman's agreement between two countries/blocks are effectively the same thing. Who's going to force the UK to stick to it's word/agreement either way? What can the EU do other than block trade if the UK goes back on its word/agreement either way?

flutered · 01-11-2018 7:48pm

Spook_ie wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

You can have that. No problem. In Coventry.

You'd deny however many 000's of people in the North their rights whilst the government enshrines the rights of however many 00's of travellers, that'll go down well

it will not be the queens highway any longer, all highways will be paddys

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 7:50pm

murphaph wrote: »

Parliament can amend that legislation if it wants. The prospect of a no deal might focus minds.

We simply could not have pulled the brakes in December. We would have lost all credibility and support from our EU partners.

The prospects of no move to even negotiations regarding a deal in December would have concentrated minds even more-so.

So what are you saying, that we had the backing of our E.U. partners in December, but only if we didn`t use it ?
If so not what I, or indeed many, would look on as backing in any sense of the word.

Rhineshark · 01-11-2018 7:50pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1058062299758555136

That link should work.

From above article

Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, indicated to ambassadors that a Northern Ireland-only customs union with the EU would still be needed in Britain’s withdrawal agreement as a final fail-safe measure — a so-called “backstop to the backstop” that London strongly opposes.

“The same fundamental problems are there,” said one EU diplomat briefed on the plan. “They’ve played around with the ingredients to the deal.”

judeboy101 · 01-11-2018 7:54pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

From above article

This right here. ^. Unless there's a specific ni backstop, this bare bones thing would be a disaster. It wouldn't cover agri food coming from uk mainland

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 7:57pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A legal binding agreement and a gentleman's agreement between two countries/blocks are effectively the same thing. Who's going to force the UK to stick to it's word/agreement either way? What can the EU do other than block trade if the UK goes back on its word/agreement either way?

A legally binding agreement being required before talks were allowed to proceed would have ensured the political problem was confronted and sorted then rather than what we got.
A fudge allowing a can to be kicked down the road towards the eleventh hour where there is 95% agreement other than the border issue.

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 8:02pm

charlie14 wrote: »

A legally binding agreement being required before talks were allowed to proceed would have ensured the political problem was confronted and sorted then rather than what we got.
A fudge allowing a can to be kicked down the road towards the eleventh hour where there is 95% agreement other than the border issue.

The entire point of this process is to get a legally binding agreement. You can't take one part of the agreement out in isolation unless you're willing to do the same for British issues.

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 8:23pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The entire point of this process is to get a legally binding agreement. You can't take one part of the agreement out in isolation unless you're willing to do the same for British issues.

In which case should negotiations not been stopped immediately when the U.K. took one part of an agreement in isolation - the backstop - and amended their Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory.

The U.K. clearly isolated the issue of the backstop with that amendment.

Nate--IRL-- · 01-11-2018 8:29pm

charlie14 wrote: »

In which case should negotiations not been stopped immediately when the U.K. took one part of an agreement in isolation - the backstop - and amended their Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory.

The U.K. clearly isolated the issue of the backstop with that amendment.

I read it as a law stating the rest of the UK must be in the same customs arrangement with the EU as NI.

Nate

McGiver · 01-11-2018 8:36pm

kuro68k wrote: »

I really hope there is a united Ireland. I hope Scotland becomes independent soon too.

The UK is toxic. It needs to be broken up.

Not the UK. English establishment and constitution (which doesn't exist on paper) are toxic. Federal arrangement would save the day, but the English political class (and English folks in extension as well) just can't coexist in a team environment where they are not the bosses but members. The EU escapade shows that, their "constitutional" arrangement shows that, their foreign policy shows that, their politics shows that.

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 8:40pm

charlie14 wrote: »

In which case should negotiations not been stopped immediately when the U.K. took one part of an agreement in isolation - the backstop - and amended their Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory.

The U.K. clearly isolated the issue of the backstop with that amendment.

No because the internal politics of the UK aren't a matter for the EU negotiation team. They know better than anyone that the UK government can repeal that law as easy as they made it.

Strazdas · 01-11-2018 9:07pm

McGiver wrote: »

Not the UK. English establishment and constitution (which doesn't exist on paper) are toxic. Federal arrangement would save the day, but the English political class (and English folks in extension as well) just can't coexist in a team environment where they are not the bosses but members. The EU escapade shows that, their "constitutional" arrangement shows that, their foreign policy shows that, their politics shows that.

I've heard it said that one reason they hate the EU is that they cannot dominate it and they are not at all keen on the "equal partners" aspect. If it was a British construct ie the 'British European Union' with its HQ in London, they would be totally in favour of it and wouldn't hear a word said against it.

RobMc59 · 01-11-2018 9:16pm

McGiver wrote: »

kuro68k wrote: »

I really hope there is a united Ireland. I hope Scotland becomes independent soon too.

The UK is toxic. It needs to be broken up.

Not the UK. English establishment and constitution (which doesn't exist on paper) are toxic. Federal arrangement would save the day, but the English political class (and English folks in extension as well) just can't coexist in a team environment where they are not the bosses but members. The EU escapade shows that, their "constitutional" arrangement shows that, their foreign policy shows that, their politics shows that.

You are of course entitled to your opinion.But you seem to be "tarring everyone with the same brush".Not all "english folks"agree with the mess the tory government has gotten Britain into-one good thing that will come out of this is the people of Britain can see what a bunch of self serving,selfish,incompetent fools the tories are..

Tell me how · 01-11-2018 9:20pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are of course entitled to your opinion.But you seem to be "tarring everyone with the same brush".Not all "english folks"agree with the mess the tory government has gotten Britain into-one good thing that will come out of this is the people of Britain can see what a bunch of self serving,selfish,incompetent fools the tories are..

I wouldn't be so optimistic.

Labour haven't done anything to indicate they would handle this better. In fact, Corbyn seems petrified at the thought.

Imreoir2 · 01-11-2018 9:39pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BREAKING in the FT

EU offers London compromise over NI backstop, May expected to indicate acceptance next week.

https://www.ft.com/content/ee75a230-dde7-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c

Told yeh, you don't get briefings like that unless something is up.

16 MINUTES AGO

Right, so the EU's concession is that it will treat NI exactly like it intended to from the start, but now the rest of the UK must also agree to be in a more limited form of backstop? Wow, the EU really sold us out there. The UK really put one over on us by binding themselves even more closely to the EU than even the EU was insisting on to make the backstop work.

NI specific backstop still exists, the UK is playing with the optics by including a limited UK wide element. NI is still not treated the same as the UK.

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 9:58pm

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

I read it as a law stating the rest of the UK must be in the same customs arrangement with the EU as NI.

Nate

I read it as an amendment to the U.K. Customs Bill which made no mention of the E.U. Only U.K Customs Territories.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-11-2018 10:13pm

The earlier news about Financial Services contained bits about what a deal might look like

Currently the EU can scrap an equivalence designation within 30 days.
And AFAIK these services only account for a quarter of the UK-EU trade in financial services.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-financial-services/uk-eu-close-to-brexit-deal-on-financial-services-uk-official-idUSKCN1N639U

Spook_ie · 01-11-2018 10:16pm

flutered wrote: »

it will not be the queens highway any longer, all highways will be paddys

And as citizens in Ireland with a UI one assumes they'd have the same rights, 12th July parade on O'Connell Street anyone?

charlie14 · 01-11-2018 10:17pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No because the internal politics of the UK aren't a matter for the EU negotiation team. They know better than anyone that the UK government can repeal that law as easy as they made it.

I would have great doubts the U.K. government will find repealing that amendment as easy as they found making it.

The internal politics of the U.K. may or may not matter to the E.U. negotiations team. But by not then it is nothing much other than farce to proceed with such negotiations based on a Chinese Wall principle when the U.K.. amends legislation in total contradiction to what the E.U. say they believe the U.K. agreed too on a backstop.

Imreoir2 · 01-11-2018 10:22pm

Spook_ie wrote: »

And as citizens in Ireland with a UI one assumes they'd have the same rights, 12th July parade on O'Connell Street anyone?

They would have to apply for a permit and if the authorities are convinced that the organisers can carry out the event without causing problems, then why not?

Eric Cartman · 01-11-2018 10:24pm

under what versions of Brexit will I be able to live up north and become non tax resident anywhere (with a day in Switzerland)

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 10:33pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I would have great doubts the U.K. government will find repealing that amendment as easy as they found making it.

The internal politics of the U.K. may or may not matter to the E.U. negotiations team. But by not then it is nothing much other than farce to proceed with such negotiations based on a Chinese Wall principle when the U.K.. amends legislation in total contradiction to what the E.U. say they believe the U.K. agreed too on a backstop.

Indeed this entire thing may be a farce but if it all goes wrong the EU can hold it's hands up and say we tried our best

Spook_ie · 01-11-2018 10:34pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They would have to apply for a permit and if the authorities are convinced that the organisers can carry out the event without causing problems, then why not?

Oh yeah, just like the Love Ulster parade in 2006, I don't see much difference in opinions after 12 years, Ireland isn't ready for a UI yet.

LeinsterDub · 01-11-2018 10:40pm

The compromise would involve giving firmer assurances to the UK about the prospect of it as a whole remaining in a customs union with the EU for a period after Brexit.

However, EU and Irish sources say the original EU plan for the Irish backstop must also remain in the withdrawal agreement as a final fail-safe, a proposal so far rejected by London and opposed by the DUP.....
....
A report in the Financial Times suggests that the EU may now be prepared to go a bit further and may include some outline details of the proposed EU-UK customs union in the formal withdrawal agreement.

The Irish Times de spins the financial times interpretation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/more-backstop-guarantees-for-london-under-consideration-by-eu-1.3683414?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Capt'n Midnight · 01-11-2018 10:40pm

More IT incompetence from the country that reckons they can cobble together an e-border in less time than some software companies take to issue patches.

The UK guberment has an Android app that can use NFC to read your passport so EU citizens can register to stay.

It won't work on older phones. Or Apple or Windows or Blackberry. So it's 50:50 it it will read your passport. Then again given the repeated cock-ups by the UK over residency rights passing the first hurdle doesn't mean the rest of the system works.

Voting is optional. If there's a hard Brexit getting residency rights isn't.

Imreoir2 · 01-11-2018 10:42pm

Spook_ie wrote: »

Oh yeah, just like the Love Ulster parade in 2006, I don't see much difference in opinions after 12 years, Ireland isn't ready for a UI yet.

Oh come now, there would be a huge difference between the love ulster parade and a potential July 12th celebration in a UI, for one thing there is much less construction material lying around on O'Connel Street.

In seriousness though, unification is the only credible way forward for Ireland. We can't continue to allow ourselves to be tied to the UK. Ending the British presence on this island would be a huge benefit to our country.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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