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February 2014 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT at 5.2 C

    PRC at 236% of normal (the week at 172%)

    SUN at 103% of normal (the week at 130%)

    March thread is open for your forecasts.


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks, these are provisional final numbers based on the Ag Summary and monthly data (MS will be out on Monday for the official numbers).

    IMT at 5.5 C

    PRC at 230% (the week at 212%)

    SUN at 107% (the week at 117%)

    Will post some scores on Monday.


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    #34
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The final values are ...

    IMT 5.5 C

    MAX 12.5 (Phoenix Park, 19th)

    MIN --4.3 (Mullingar, 10th)

    PRC 236% (mercy rule invoked -- my high forecast of 175% would score zero by the regular rules :) )

    SUN 109%

    14th max 10.3 Sherkin Island ... 3 correct locations get 1 extra bonus point each (solo is worth 2 extra, 2 or 3 score 1). None of these qualify for the second extra bonus that goes to anyone who scores max (8 pts) on temp at correct location.



    Scoring for February 2014


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 14th ___ TOTALS

    Actual values ____________ 5.5_12.5_--4.3_236_109_10.3 Sherkin

    Tae laidir ________________22 _ 13 _ 19 _ 12* _ 09 _ 07 03 ________ 85
    Bsal ____________________24 _ 18 _ 13 _ 05* _ 08 _ 07 00 ________ 75
    waterways ______________ 24 _ 14 _ 18 _ 07* _ 06 _ 05 00 ________ 74
    rameire _________________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 02* _ 07 _ 07 00 ________ 72
    200 motels ______________ 25 _ 09 _ 18 _ 13* _ 01 _ 05 00 ________ 71

    Con Sensus _____________ 25 _ 08 _ 17 _ 06* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 71

    pauldry _________________ 21 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 _ 04 00 ________ 69
    melanoma _______________25 _ 13 _ 07 _ 05* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 65
    rikand __________________ 22 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05* _ 10 __ 06 00 _______ 65
    nilhg ___________________ 17 _ 18 _ 10 _ 05* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 64
    M.T. Cranium ____________ 17 _ 05 _ 17 _ 14* _ 06 _ 03 00 ________ 62
    harps __________________ 24 _ 06 _ 13 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 63
    homolumo _______________22 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05* _ 05 __ 05 00 _______ 59
    dasa 29 _________________20 _ 15 _ 13 _ 02* _ 05 _ 04 00 ________ 59
    Joe Public _______________ 19 _ 06 _ 14 _ 08* _ 08 __ 03 00 _______ 58
    jd _____________________ 24 _ 09 _ 12 _ 05* _ 06 _ 02 00 ________ 58
    traecy.1 ________________ 23 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 58
    Danno __________________23 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09* _ 08 __ 03 03 _______ 58
    omicron _________________20 _ 10 _ 07 _ 06* _ 08 __ 05 00 _______ 56
    dacogawa _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 53
    John mac ___ (-5%) _______21 _ 02 _ 18 _ 05* _ 08 _ 01 03 __ 58-5 = 53
    mickger844posts _________ 22 _ 03 _ 08 _ 06* _ 06 _ 08 00_________ 53
    lostinashford_____________ 19 _ 00 _ 10 _ 08* _ 06 _ 08 00 ________ 51
    kindredspirit _____________ 21 _ 00 _ 07 _ 05* _ 08 _ 08 00 ________ 49
    DOCARCH _______________24 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06* _ 07 _ 01 00 _________ 47
    jpmarn ___ (-10%) _______ 25 _ 12 _ 06 _ 00 __ 04 _ 08 00 __ 55-10 = 45
    delw _____ (-10%) _______ 16 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 04 00 _ 41-10 = 31
    _______________________________________________________________________________

    Congrats to Tae laidir, Bsal and waterways for leading the way in a rather high-scoring month for almost all, before penalties nobody was under 40 which is quite unusual. Our consensus was stunningly accurate for the 14th. It worked out to a perfect forecast for Valentia anyway.

    I will post the annual totals and the seasonal winners in a while.


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    #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual and Seasonal winter 2013-14 Scores

    Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F _ TOTAL ___ Dec 2013 __ seasonal __ points

    01 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 __ 149 _______ 62 ______ 211 _ 10 (1st)

    02 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 __ 135 _______ 41 ______ 176 __ 1

    02 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 __ 134 _______ 43 ______ 177 __ 2 (7th)
    03 _ rikand _________ 68 _ 65 __ 133 _______ 33 _______ 166 __ 1
    04 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 __ 131 _______ 66 ______ 197 __ 7 (2nd)
    04 _ Tae laidir _______46 _ 85 __ 131 _______ 47 ______ 178 __ 3 (6th)
    06 _ rameire ________54 _ 72 __ 126 _______ 43 _______ 169 __ 1
    06 _ omicron ________70 _ 56 __ 126 _______ 58 _______184 __ 4 (5th)
    08 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 __ 125 _______ 33 _______ 158
    09 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 __ 124 _______ 61 _______ 185 __ 5 (4th)
    10 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 __ 122_______ 33 _______ 155
    11 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 __ 121 _______ 55 ______ 176 __ 1
    11 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 __ 121 _______ 44 _______ 165
    13 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 __ 120 _______ 39 _______ 159
    13 _ harps __________57 _ 63 __ 120 _______ 35 _______ 155
    13 _ dasa 29 ________61 _ 59 __ 120 _______ 29 _______ 149
    16 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 23 _______ 141
    16 _ jd ____________ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 30 _______ 148
    18 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 __ 117 _______ 11 _______ 128
    19 _ kindredspirit ____ 67 _ 49 __ 116 _______ 41 ________157
    20 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 __ 112 _______ -- ________ 112
    21 _ jpmarn ________ 61 _ 45 __ 106 ______ 84 ________ 190 __ 6 (3rd)
    22 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 __ 105 _______ 29 ________134
    23 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 __ 104 _______ -- _______ 104
    24 _ DOCARCH ______54 _ 47 __ 101 ______ 40 _________141
    25 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 ___ 75 ______ -- __________75
    26 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ -- ___ 59 _______ 37 _________ 96
    26 _ okla ___________59 _ -- ___ 59 ______ 33 _________ 92
    28 _ lostinashford_____-- _ 51 ___ 51 _______ -- _________ 51
    29 _ octo ___________47 _ -- ___ 47 _______ -- _________ 47
    30 _ seafields _______ 40 _ -- ___ 40 _______ 43 _________83
    __________________________________________________________

    Seasonal scores do not include forecasters who only entered December, ranks are based on 10 pts for first and 7, 6, 5 etc for 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc, with 1 pt for 8th to 10th.


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    #36
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,340 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    3rd place total - I'm screenshotting that, i wont be anywhere near that again :D


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Recently our consensus forecasts have improved, which must mean we are all improving a little. Maybe a new global model, the BIE ??


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