February 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

The 1981-2010 average IMT for February is 5.2 C

As always, the contest has five regular questions:

1. Predict the IMT (average for Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon)

2. Predict the MAX anywhere that Met.ie has a thermometer in action as reported in the Monthly Summary

3. Predict the MIN same basis

4. Predict the PRC as % of normal (winter PRC includes melted equivalents) at the eleven sites that are reviewed in the Monthly Summary from Met-E.

5. Predict the SUN as % of normal at reporting stations (six are usually reviewed in the Monthly Summary from Met-E).

6. Bonus this month: Highest maximum temperature on Valentines' Day which as I am sure you know is Friday the 14th. (8 pts) and add a location for a further bonus of 2 if you're correct, although lone wolf forecasts will earn 4 pts and exclusive pairs will earn 3.

You can now enter this contest at the following location:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

or you can enter directly on this thread.

The deadline, as usual, will be 0300h on the 2nd (Sunday) after which penalties of 5% per half-day apply.

M.T. Cranium

bump(y road ahead)

Three entries so far, thanks 200m, pauldry and MTC whoever you are.

Don't forget, deadline is Sunday 2nd at 0300h.

Bsal

Done.

Rikand

done

Danno

done

dasa29

Done

jd

done

omicron

Done

Harps

Done

DOCARCH

Done

homolumo

Done

kindredspirit

I wouldn't win an argument .......................but done.

Tae laidir

kindredspirit wrote: »

I wouldn't win an argument .......................but done.

Valencia an interesting choice.

Done!

Joe Public

Done with this weather!

mickger844posts

done

nilhg

done

traecy1

Done

dacogawa

Done

lostinashford

Done

rameire

Doh. Done.

John mac

done. late again

Jpmarn

Done, sorry I'm late.

delw

its' late but done

M.T. Cranium

February 2014 Forecasts


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 14th

M.T. Cranium ____________ 6.3 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 175 _ 090 _ 12.3 Val
nilhg ___________________ 6.3 _ 12.3 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 100 __ 9.6 Oak
lostinashford_____________ 6.1 _ 14.5 _ --3.3 _ 135 _ 090 _ 10.5 Oak
omicron _________________6.0 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 9.0 Joh
kindredspirit _____________ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 098 _ 10.5 Val
dacogawa _______________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --5.5 _ 140 _ 100 __ 9.9 Val
mickger844posts _________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ --3.1 _ 123 _ 090 _ 10.1 Oak
Tae laidir ________________5.8 _ 13.2 _ --4.2 _ 155 _ 105 _ 10.8 She
Danno __________________5.7 _ 14.7 _ --5.1 _ 140 _ 100 __ 8.4 She
waterways ______________ 5.6 _ 13.1 _ --4.5 _ 132 _ 089 _ 12.0 Oak
rameire ________________ 5.6 _ 13.0 _ --4.0 _ 105 _ 095 _ 10.0 Cas
200 motels ______________ 5.5 _ 13.6 _ --4.1 _ 169 _ 065 _ 11.5 Val
jpmarn ___ (-10%) _______ 5.5 _ 13.3 _ --2.9 _ 095 _ 080 _ 10.5 Sha

Con Sensus _____________ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ --4.0 _ 120 _ 095 _ 10.2 Val

melanoma ______________ 5.5 _ 13.2 _ --3.0 _ 115 _ 096 _ 10.3 Oak
DOCARCH _______________ 5.4 _ 15.2 _ --3.2 _ 125 _ 096 _ 13.8 Cas
harps __________________ 5.4 _ 13.9 _ --3.6 _ 130 _ 095 __ 9.6 Val
jd _____________________ 5.4 _ 13.6 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 089 _ 12.7 Val
Bsal ____________________5.4 _ 12.7 _ --5.0 _ 111 _ 097 _ 10.0 Val
traecy.1 ________________ 5.3 _ 15.4 _ --4.8 _ 130 _ 095 _ 10.8 Val
homolumo _______________5.2 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 110 _ 085 __ 9.1 Oak
rikand __________________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 9.5 Joh
John mac ___ (-5%) ______ 5.1 _ 14.3 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _ 13.2 She
pauldry _________________ 5.1 _ 13.0 _ --5.0 _ 143 _ 091 _ 12.0 Val
dasa 29 _________________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.0 _ 105 _ 085 _ 12.0 Mul
Joe Public _______________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 139 _ 099 __ 8.9 Val
delw _____ (-10%) _______ 4.6 _ 11.0 _ --2.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 9.0 Val
________________________________________________

The general consensus is a rather mild, wet and slightly dull month, with the warmest reading on the 14th most likely to be 10-12 in the southwest.

None among us apparently foresees much chance of any severely cold weather before the end of February, the lowest MIN forecast is --5.5 deg.

Good luck to all (except Con).

Joe Public

Soon we might have an average monthly wind speed column.

M.T. Cranium

After one week,

IMT at 5.3 C

PRC at 239% of normal

SUN at 85% of normal

and more wind than an all-candidates meeting.

pauldry

dont think consensus will do too well on the temperature this month.

its heading down more this week

with nine news weather having a snow? at the start

omicron

-4.3 in Mullingar yesterday is prob a new min for the month so far.

Joe Public

Sherkin Island had a 10.3C today according to Ogimet, pipped Valentia by .1

M.T. Cranium

Our consensus was not too shabby then. (10.2 Val)

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks at the halfway point ...

IMT at 4.7 C

PRC at 268% of normal

SUN at 90% of normal

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT at 5.2 C

PRC at 236% of normal (the week at 172%)

SUN at 103% of normal (the week at 130%)

March thread is open for your forecasts.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, these are provisional final numbers based on the Ag Summary and monthly data (MS will be out on Monday for the official numbers).

IMT at 5.5 C

PRC at 230% (the week at 212%)

SUN at 107% (the week at 117%)

Will post some scores on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

The final values are ...

IMT 5.5 C

MAX 12.5 (Phoenix Park, 19th)

MIN --4.3 (Mullingar, 10th)

PRC 236% (mercy rule invoked -- my high forecast of 175% would score zero by the regular rules )

SUN 109%

14th max 10.3 Sherkin Island ... 3 correct locations get 1 extra bonus point each (solo is worth 2 extra, 2 or 3 score 1). None of these qualify for the second extra bonus that goes to anyone who scores max (8 pts) on temp at correct location.



Scoring for February 2014


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 14th ___ TOTALS

Actual values ____________ 5.5_12.5_--4.3_236_109_10.3 Sherkin

Tae laidir ________________22 _ 13 _ 19 _ 12* _ 09 _ 07 03 ________ 85
Bsal ____________________24 _ 18 _ 13 _ 05* _ 08 _ 07 00 ________ 75
waterways ______________ 24 _ 14 _ 18 _ 07* _ 06 _ 05 00 ________ 74
rameire _________________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 02* _ 07 _ 07 00 ________ 72
200 motels ______________ 25 _ 09 _ 18 _ 13* _ 01 _ 05 00 ________ 71

Con Sensus _____________ 25 _ 08 _ 17 _ 06* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 71

pauldry _________________ 21 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 _ 04 00 ________ 69
melanoma _______________25 _ 13 _ 07 _ 05* _ 07 _ 08 00 ________ 65
rikand __________________ 22 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05* _ 10 __ 06 00 _______ 65
nilhg ___________________ 17 _ 18 _ 10 _ 05* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 64
M.T. Cranium ____________ 17 _ 05 _ 17 _ 14* _ 06 _ 03 00 ________ 62
harps __________________ 24 _ 06 _ 13 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 63
homolumo _______________22 _ 05 _ 17 _ 05* _ 05 __ 05 00 _______ 59
dasa 29 _________________20 _ 15 _ 13 _ 02* _ 05 _ 04 00 ________ 59
Joe Public _______________ 19 _ 06 _ 14 _ 08* _ 08 __ 03 00 _______ 58
jd _____________________ 24 _ 09 _ 12 _ 05* _ 06 _ 02 00 ________ 58
traecy.1 ________________ 23 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07* _ 07 _ 06 00 ________ 58
Danno __________________23 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09* _ 08 __ 03 03 _______ 58
omicron _________________20 _ 10 _ 07 _ 06* _ 08 __ 05 00 _______ 56
dacogawa _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09* _ 08 __ 06 00 _______ 53
John mac ___ (-5%) _______21 _ 02 _ 18 _ 05* _ 08 _ 01 03 __ 58-5 = 53
mickger844posts _________ 22 _ 03 _ 08 _ 06* _ 06 _ 08 00_________ 53
lostinashford_____________ 19 _ 00 _ 10 _ 08* _ 06 _ 08 00 ________ 51
kindredspirit _____________ 21 _ 00 _ 07 _ 05* _ 08 _ 08 00 ________ 49
DOCARCH _______________24 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06* _ 07 _ 01 00 _________ 47
jpmarn ___ (-10%) _______ 25 _ 12 _ 06 _ 00 __ 04 _ 08 00 __ 55-10 = 45
delw _____ (-10%) _______ 16 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 04 00 _ 41-10 = 31
_______________________________________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir, Bsal and waterways for leading the way in a rather high-scoring month for almost all, before penalties nobody was under 40 which is quite unusual. Our consensus was stunningly accurate for the 14th. It worked out to a perfect forecast for Valentia anyway.

I will post the annual totals and the seasonal winners in a while.

M.T. Cranium

Annual and Seasonal winter 2013-14 Scores

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F _ TOTAL ___ Dec 2013 __ seasonal __ points

01 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 __ 149 _______ 62 ______ 211 _ 10 (1st)

02 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 __ 135 _______ 41 ______ 176 __ 1

02 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 __ 134 _______ 43 ______ 177 __ 2 (7th)
03 _ rikand _________ 68 _ 65 __ 133 _______ 33 _______ 166 __ 1
04 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 __ 131 _______ 66 ______ 197 __ 7 (2nd)
04 _ Tae laidir _______46 _ 85 __ 131 _______ 47 ______ 178 __ 3 (6th)
06 _ rameire ________54 _ 72 __ 126 _______ 43 _______ 169 __ 1
06 _ omicron ________70 _ 56 __ 126 _______ 58 _______184 __ 4 (5th)
08 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 __ 125 _______ 33 _______ 158
09 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 __ 124 _______ 61 _______ 185 __ 5 (4th)
10 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 __ 122_______ 33 _______ 155
11 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 __ 121 _______ 55 ______ 176 __ 1
11 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 __ 121 _______ 44 _______ 165
13 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 __ 120 _______ 39 _______ 159
13 _ harps __________57 _ 63 __ 120 _______ 35 _______ 155
13 _ dasa 29 ________61 _ 59 __ 120 _______ 29 _______ 149
16 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 23 _______ 141
16 _ jd ____________ 60 _ 58 __ 118 _______ 30 _______ 148
18 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 __ 117 _______ 11 _______ 128
19 _ kindredspirit ____ 67 _ 49 __ 116 _______ 41 ________157
20 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 __ 112 _______ -- ________ 112
21 _ jpmarn ________ 61 _ 45 __ 106 ______ 84 ________ 190 __ 6 (3rd)
22 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 __ 105 _______ 29 ________134
23 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 __ 104 _______ -- _______ 104
24 _ DOCARCH ______54 _ 47 __ 101 ______ 40 _________141
25 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 ___ 75 ______ -- __________75
26 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ -- ___ 59 _______ 37 _________ 96
26 _ okla ___________59 _ -- ___ 59 ______ 33 _________ 92
28 _ lostinashford_____-- _ 51 ___ 51 _______ -- _________ 51
29 _ octo ___________47 _ -- ___ 47 _______ -- _________ 47
30 _ seafields _______ 40 _ -- ___ 40 _______ 43 _________83
__________________________________________________________

Seasonal scores do not include forecasters who only entered December, ranks are based on 10 pts for first and 7, 6, 5 etc for 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc, with 1 pt for 8th to 10th.

Rikand

3rd place total - I'm screenshotting that, i wont be anywhere near that again

M.T. Cranium

Recently our consensus forecasts have improved, which must mean we are all improving a little. Maybe a new global model, the BIE ??