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12-10-2017, 00:00   #46
Meteorite58
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Met Eireann remaining calm : Current indications suggest a stormy day for Monday is possible, but uncertainty on the detail remains, due to the nature of the track of the Atlantic storm system. The situation will be monitored throughout the weekend but at the moment it looks like it will be a windy day with further spells of rain.

The GFS showing weaker winds than the ECMWF, usually the other way round.
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12-10-2017, 00:14   #47
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Originally Posted by Oscar Bravo View Post
Joanna donnelly on Radio 1 just now saying that more or less its been hyped in the media and that it will more than likely just a wet and windy episode however they will be keeping an eye on it. she perhaps should of said nout until a day or two more passes.
Isn't that her style generally, blaze,about this kind of stuff.
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12-10-2017, 00:14   #48
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For the record, can see how the ECM is showing much stronger winds.






Note 850hPa winds


Last edited by Meteorite58; 12-10-2017 at 00:20.
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12-10-2017, 01:15   #49
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Ophelia looks better organized and it may be as strong as 80-90 knots (next update due around 0400h). I don't mean to imply this would lead to a stronger low near Ireland, the ECM has pretty much maxed out that potential.

Latest position about 30.0 N and 35.6 W.
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12-10-2017, 01:25   #50
 
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Ophelia looks better organized and it may be as strong as 80-90 knots (next update due around 0400h). I don't mean to imply this would lead to a stronger low near Ireland, the ECM has pretty much maxed out that potential.

Latest position about 30.0 N and 35.6 W.
I presume MT that the NHC doesn’t overfly hurricanes this Far East or on this kind of track,so we’ll be without their handy eye data?
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12-10-2017, 01:55   #51
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They mentioned not flying into this storm earlier today, but their satellite techniques should be fairly reliable, maybe the UK or France could get their hands on a dropsonde and get a reading on Saturday. If the ECM is right there's an ocean buoy in its path for Sunday night's readings.

The 1987 under-prediction (for England) was mostly due to the failure of forecasting models to pick up on the rapid deepening, you can see from Michael Fish's 24-48h maps that the wave was expected to deepen gradually as it crossed England but instead it bombed out in the first six hours and reached the eventual forecast central pressure somewhere near Coventry instead of Bergen. That made all the difference.

With this one, we're in the opposite situation, how long will this low retain a deep central pressure that we should know within 5 mbs by Saturday.
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12-10-2017, 04:49   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oscar Bravo View Post
Joanna donnelly on Radio 1 just now saying that more or less its been hyped in the media and that it will more than likely just a wet and windy episode however they will be keeping an eye on it. she perhaps should of said nout until a day or two more passes.
Isn't that her style generally, blaze,about this kind of stuff.
Also how many wet and windy episodes have ever been given a track by the NHC ? I mean MT from what I can see doesn't hype things.
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12-10-2017, 04:58   #53
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Yes, this is a hurricane chart. Who'd have thunk it?

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 12-10-2017 at 06:11.
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12-10-2017, 06:43   #54
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The 00z GFS has a very intense low just a little further west than the 12z run, but a respected forecaster once mentioned that the better comparison at this time scale is from the previous 00z run to this one, and on that comparison there is not much of a shift. The strongest winds would be out to sea but still a level one or perhaps two impact on land from this version.

The 00z GEM made a slight shift west as well and is also similar to the track it had 24 hours ago (eastern Ireland, but not a very strong storm left at that point).

The 00z Arpege has shifted east of any of its earlier output and is also a bit weaker than before, once again, would suggest a level one to two event up through the central counties.

Now waiting for the 00z ECM to update.

Ophelia has been spinning her wheels out to the southwest of the Azores, for about six hours there was almost no forward progress, but this was anticipated and a very slow eastward drift has resumed with hints of a northward component (30.1 N 35.2 W last time I looked at the satellite imagery). It's a strong cat-1 or perhaps a weak cat-2 now, NHC is frank about having an approximate estimate from satellite presentation.

Still thinking that we won't have a lot of clarity on this outcome until Friday afternoon at the earliest and perhaps Saturday morning. Once Ophelia accelerates and makes a northeast move we should have a better idea.
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12-10-2017, 07:04   #55
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Remember this.

Unbelievable.




That is a hurricane chart showing landfall in Ireland.

Could conceivably be at or near Cat 1 - would be historic and hugely damaging near the center.

I see some UK weather watchers are seriously considering making the trip to the south coast just to see it make landfall! (if it does of course!)

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 12-10-2017 at 07:10.
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12-10-2017, 07:05   #56
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Yes! Distraction from the joys of trying to conceive. Love the weather . Looking forward to all the updates and thanks in advance to all the weather posters for sharing their knowledge

I’m thinking it would be prudent to start the garden toys clear up for the winter and to pick up a torch (we don’t have one)
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12-10-2017, 07:36   #57
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Currently 75 knots and moving slowly over increasingly colder waters. The NHC chart shows it as a hurricane strength extratropical low (white icon) as opposed to a proper hurricane (black icon) south of Ireland, and as storm force over Ireland. 55 knots by Monday evening. Kermit's chart doesn't show a hurricane landfall either.

This is similar to Debbie in 1961, which had already become extratropical well before Ireland but its lightning fast forward speed (~60 kph) is what brought those strong winds. Ophelia won't be moving quite as fast (~35-40 kph) but this foward speed is what will increase the winds felt at the surface.

Still a lot of uncertainty at this stage and a lot depends on what happens in the next 2 days as it sits over cold waters.



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12-10-2017, 07:47   #58
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55 knots by Monday evening. Kermit's chart doesn't show a hurricane landfall either.
Never said it did. But it could make landfall with or near Cat 1 winds near the center.
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12-10-2017, 08:00   #59
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Never said it did. But it could make landfall with or near Cat 1 winds near the center.
I know, I was just clarifying the difference between the two types structures-wise.

Latest intensity guidance. Official forecast (red) is at the bottom of the consensus. Certainly hurricane gusts possible come Monday but I can't see hurricane-force sustained.


Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 12-10-2017 at 08:35.
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12-10-2017, 08:49   #60
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Joanne Donnelly being very blasé about this potential storm. I hope she isn't about to have her Michael Fish moment.
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