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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->
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Good that I had to bring up the November of 1946 incidentally since it is vaguely similar to the situation we see now in that it was very mild
Have to say that I cannot see any similarity between these two set ups at all. 1946 set up was a moist, maritime S/SSW'ly that was modified a little by a ridge to the south and southeast. The forecast set up is more of a SE/E'ly bent due to a (almost) cut-off high over northern / eastern Europe:
May well be wrong but a set up like that often brings low cloud/fog to the east and southeast coasts at this time of year keeping temps suppressed with the best of the weather in general more towards the W/NW. Even if not, with a fairly reasonable pressure gradient both at surface and height it could be quite breezy which may help prevent temps from rising all that much by day whilst preventing them from falling all that much by night.
For what it is worth, the highest temperature at Phoenix Park on the 4th Nov 1946 was 18.3c and judging from that and the general set up, I would say 15-17c would have been the general nationwide maxima that day.0 -
It is to show that we don't even need 10c at 850hPa to reach 20c at this time of year.
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Well I have not said that it is nailed on we will get 850hPa temps over 10c. My point is the inference of your posts is that it is impossible to get 20c in November. That is not correct.
As I said, my point is that we're now talking about two weeks later than that THIS November, which is a crucial factor at this time of the year. Your point is that we can still get 20.0 °C in MID November, which I in turn don't agree with.
Plus, as Deep Easterly pointed out, the 1946 setup was a moist one, which means more effective Föhn warming possibilities. With a drier continental airmass this will not occur.
Interesting to see how this will play out. Let's just agree to disagree!
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On course for the blow torch to be fired from Northern Africa
Very, very mild for November.
Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of above +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but soundings show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.
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oh so thats why, i was wondering why this high pressure wasnt giving hot weather like in october, felt more like hp in january! twas frezzing:eek:Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but sounding show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.0 -
Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of above +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but soundings show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.
It's the fact it was covered in cloud no1 that restricted temperatures. (so was the continent so temperatures could not have risen much there in the first place and besides the origin of the air is compatible with the faux cold developing there this time of year) No2 air from the Southeast of the continent is of the faux cold variety this time of year. i.e surface is cool. It's not the same as the projected flow by the end of the week at all. The wind then will be travelling over the southern med and the bay of biscay. Completely different scenario. The air will be moist and inherently warm at all levels. It won't have the dryness of the artic originated airflow modified in the East Med. Chalk and cheese.
P.S you say T850's are not a warm airmass? It is a very warm airmass for Ireland even in the height of summer.0 -
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It's the fact it was covered in cloud no1 that restricted temperatures. (so was the continent so temperatures could not have risen much there in the first place and besides the origin of the air is compatible with the faux cold developing there this time of year) No2 air from the Southeast of the continent is of the faux cold variety this time of year. i.e surface is cool. It's not the same as the projected flow by the end of the week at all. The wind then will be travelling over the southern med and the bay of biscay. Completely different scenario. The air will be moist and inherently warm at all levels. It won't have the dryness of the artic originated airflow modified in the East Med. Chalk and cheese.
Yes, that's the point I was making. It's not enough for someone to see warm T850s and go "Wow, we're in for a roasting". It's the boundary layer that's the key, and that's dictated by its origin and modification.P.S you say T850's are not a warm airmass? It is a very warm airmass for Ireland even in the height of summer.
However, T850 is NOT always an indication of a warm airmass, as you say, even in summer. The definition of an airmass is "A huge volume of air covering thousands of square kilometers that is relatively uniform in temperature and water vapor concentration." A subsidence inversion, such as we have now, warms and dries only a small layer of the atmosphere, but the majority of it above and below that can still be cold, and even below zero in some cases. That's a cold airmass.
Forecast soundings for Dublin and Athlone at 12Z and 15Z, respectively, on the 14th show a relatively cool, cloudy isothermal boundary beneath an inversion, with only some slight warming at Atlone by 15Z, around 12 °C at the surface (which we can round up to say 15 °C, allowing for a slight low surface temp bias for the GFS). A similar setup to that over England and the near continent yesterday.
Dublin
Athlone
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Is that a blocking high developing?
Sorry that chart has actually change. That is not very good anymore. We need the high pressure over Europe to disappear, preferably get hoovered up North.
The ECM is the pick of them tonight. Good Northern blocking here. The cold air coming through Scandinavia. Much better profile then the rest of the models with the exception of the JMA model.
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The-Rigger wrote: »Bought my sombrero today.
Looks like I should have done the same. I dug out my heavy jacket when we had a cold snap and by default have been wearing it during the unexpected heatwave. But given Irish weather once I took out the hoody it started to get cold again...0 -
The-Rigger wrote: »Bought my sombrero today.
Will be a sombrero moment when it gets soaked in the rain.0 -
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this November could be the reverse of last year.
Extreme mildness.
Even record breaking.
Think the mean by the end of the month will be nudging real high values.
Though a slight shift here and there in a low could still drag down cold near the end.
Hell one or two of the upcoming days might even be described as being...... warm :eek: November warmth, love it! Will probably pay a Dec/Jan hangover though for it
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Very high temperatures for the time of year in Spain and S.W. France.
Heading our way?
Fairly typical temperatures if you ask me. Slightly above the norm in a few places, but they would get days like this most years.
I'm still saying we won't break 19.0 tomorrow. May not even make 18.0 °C, even though the Hirlam has +12 °C T850 temps over the southwest tomorrow afternoon.
GFS sounding for the midlands tomorrow afternoon shows a strong inversion at 900 hPa, with a well mixed boundary layer. Even with full insolation, surface temperatures may only reach around 17 °C at best, due to mixing out by the stiff southeasterly winds.
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walking up georges street today I saw shorts shades and Christmas lights
wtf? I am sorry but I am not down under, I am far from it, that combination should not be happening over here!
what is happening to our Irish weather?0 -
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And this doesn't make the slightest bit of sense either.Elmer Blooker wrote: »According to Evelyn C on the radio forecast at 12.50 a new November was recorded today at Malin, 14c.
17.6C in 1997 at Malin Head.
16.2C with me today
Highest November temp since.......4/11/10
17.6C that day.0 -
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