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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->
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id stay the hell away from the Canaries right now
Joe Public wrote: »
Jake1 is referring to the recent seismic activity at El Hierro Joe, here's a link to the thread
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75318885#post753188850 -
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thetonynator wrote: »But unless you're actually going to el hierro it wouldn't be much of an issue.
There would be an issue if there was a landslide and subsequent tsunami Tony:):) 0 -
Not a chance we'll get 20 °C
20c can be reached in November in an airmass where the temperature at 1,250m is 10c. Fine if you don't believe me. Everyone has differing opinions - life would be boring if we all agreed!:)
But...
Do you recognise this chart? Do you know what occurred on this date?
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1,250 m? That's not 850 hPa, and if it is then it's one cold airmass!!
I know it's not. It's around 250m below it. And that is a very warm airmass for this time of year.The highest November temperatures recorded in Ireland in the 61-90 period were around 17 - 18 °C and no more.
And?I don't know what happened in 1946, but I'm guessing from that setup that if 20 °C was recorded somewhere then it was probably down to local Föhn effects.
Yes, 20.0c was recorded in Rathfarnham in Dublin. Another chart I mischievously held back. The temperature at 850hPa level was not even 10c and was outside the margin of error given the less then adequate resources for measuring when compared to today.
What may occur
I rest my case.:) I respect your opinion but I just don't agree with it on this.0 -
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I love it when you all start in with the ...well i raise your temp chart with ... this temp chart... and see my next temp chart trumps your previous chart...:D
Apart from it creating a bit of banter, you tend to explain your reasons more and occasionally i am able to follow what the argument is and learn something!! So don't forget... argue in science boys!
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I know it's not. It's around 250m below it. And that is a very warm airmass for this time of year.
So why make out it is the 850 hPa level?
And?
It strongly suggests that trying to get 20 degrees it nigh on impossible.Yes, 20.0c was recorded in Rathfarnham in Dublin. Another chart I mischievously held back. The temperature at 850hPa level was not even 10c and was outside the margin of error given the less then adequate resources for measuring when compared to today.
I rest my case.:) I respect your opinion but I just don't agree with it on this.
Rathfarnham. Was that an official station? Plus, it's THE perfect location for Föhn warming, as I thought. In any case, that was at the start of the month, you're talking about almost two weeks later, which stacks the odds even more against.
I'll tell you what. If we do see an OFFICIAL reading of 20...no, wait, even 19.0 °C this November, then I will close my account on boards.ie....promise! 0 -
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So why make out it is the 850 hPa level?
It is to show that we don't even need 10c at 850hPa to reach 20c at this time of year.It strongly suggests that trying to get 20 degrees it nigh on impossible.
No it does not.Rathfarnham. Was that an official station?
Yes it was.Plus, it's THE perfect location for Föhn warming, as I thought. In any case, that was at the start of the month, you're talking about almost two weeks later, which stacks the odds even more against.
No, I don't think so.I'll tell you what. If we do see an OFFICIAL reading of 20...no, wait, even 19.0 °C this November, then I will close my account on boards.ie....promise!
Well I have not said that it is nailed on we will get 850hPa temps over 10c. My point is the inference of your posts is that it is impossible to get 20c in November. That is not correct.
In fact it is on the Met Éireann website. It was an official station with an official recording officially recognised as the highest November temperature on record. Fohn effect or no Fohn effect.
http://met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme_maxtemps.pdf
Good that I had to bring up the November of 1946 incidentally since it is vaguely similar to the situation we see now in that it was very mild - I think we all know what occurred from late January 1947 0 -
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Sponge Bob wrote: »Please say snow if you mean snow.
Have you no pride, no shame? Get off your knees, boy!
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Good that I had to bring up the November of 1946 incidentally since it is vaguely similar to the situation we see now in that it was very mild
Have to say that I cannot see any similarity between these two set ups at all. 1946 set up was a moist, maritime S/SSW'ly that was modified a little by a ridge to the south and southeast. The forecast set up is more of a SE/E'ly bent due to a (almost) cut-off high over northern / eastern Europe:
May well be wrong but a set up like that often brings low cloud/fog to the east and southeast coasts at this time of year keeping temps suppressed with the best of the weather in general more towards the W/NW. Even if not, with a fairly reasonable pressure gradient both at surface and height it could be quite breezy which may help prevent temps from rising all that much by day whilst preventing them from falling all that much by night.
For what it is worth, the highest temperature at Phoenix Park on the 4th Nov 1946 was 18.3c and judging from that and the general set up, I would say 15-17c would have been the general nationwide maxima that day.0 -
It is to show that we don't even need 10c at 850hPa to reach 20c at this time of year.
.......
Well I have not said that it is nailed on we will get 850hPa temps over 10c. My point is the inference of your posts is that it is impossible to get 20c in November. That is not correct.
As I said, my point is that we're now talking about two weeks later than that THIS November, which is a crucial factor at this time of the year. Your point is that we can still get 20.0 °C in MID November, which I in turn don't agree with.
Plus, as Deep Easterly pointed out, the 1946 setup was a moist one, which means more effective Föhn warming possibilities. With a drier continental airmass this will not occur.
Interesting to see how this will play out. Let's just agree to disagree! 0 -
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On course for the blow torch to be fired from Northern Africa
Very, very mild for November.
Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of above +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but soundings show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.
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oh so thats why, i was wondering why this high pressure wasnt giving hot weather like in october, felt more like hp in january! twas frezzing:eek:Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but sounding show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.0 -
Ah now I think blow torch is a bit ott.
Just to illustrate a point. There were widespread 850 hPa temperatures of above +10 °C over England today, but max surface air temperatures were only 10 - 13 °C. The very subsidence inversion that brought the warm T850 was also responsible for the massive Sc sheet that covered the country, keeping the temperatures down. To look at the setup you would be forgiven for thinking we were in for a roasting, but soundings show a different story, with a relatively cool boundary layer. This is the key. Warm T850s do not necessarily mean a warm airmass.
It's the fact it was covered in cloud no1 that restricted temperatures. (so was the continent so temperatures could not have risen much there in the first place and besides the origin of the air is compatible with the faux cold developing there this time of year) No2 air from the Southeast of the continent is of the faux cold variety this time of year. i.e surface is cool. It's not the same as the projected flow by the end of the week at all. The wind then will be travelling over the southern med and the bay of biscay. Completely different scenario. The air will be moist and inherently warm at all levels. It won't have the dryness of the artic originated airflow modified in the East Med. Chalk and cheese.
P.S you say T850's are not a warm airmass? It is a very warm airmass for Ireland even in the height of summer.0 -
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