Aviation weather thread

JCX BXC · 29-01-2016 8:31pm

Cork and Knock forecasting tempo Snow Showers for tonight and tomorrow.

EICK : PROB30 TEMPO 3006/3009 1500 -SHSN

EIKN: PROB40 3000/3014 3000 -SHSN BKN005 SCT015CB
PROB30 TEMPO 3001/3012 1500 SHSN

Gaoth Laidir · 30-01-2016 10:37am

2 cm of lying snow reported in Knock's 9 am synop. Not much on the runway yet.

Also light snow at Belfast City.

b757 · 30-01-2016 11:39am

SNOWTAM
FROM: 30 JAN 2016 08:55
A) EIKN

01300855 C) 09 F) 5/5/5
T) SNOW CLEARING IN PROGRESS)

Gaoth Laidir · 30-01-2016 1:11pm

A near record 220-kt jet stream at FL370 off our west coast at the moment.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-01-2016 1:12pm

A near record 220-kt jet stream at FL370 off our west coast at the moment.

JCX BXC · 30-01-2016 1:13pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A near record 220-kt jet stream at FL370 off our west coast at the moment.

That probably explains the very unusual track of UA2060. Turned northeast after takeoff and still heading that way!

highlydebased · 31-01-2016 6:03pm

Some jetstream there was too- I flew LGW-SNN last night and it took not far off 90 min. FR24 groundspeed record explains

JCX BXC · 01-02-2016 12:34am

11pm Taf's out.

Max wind at DUB:
BECMG 5am-8am 250 degrees (WSW) 29kts G 48kts.

Max wind at SNN:
BECMG 4am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 30kts G 40kts

Max wind at ORK:
BECMG 6am-9am 240 degrees (WSW) 25kts G 42kts

Max wind at NOC:
BECMG 3am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 28kts G 46kts

Dangerously conservative in my opinion. Can see the winds exceeding the forecasts at all airports. A max gust of 40kts at SNN? Laughably low.

Expect the 5am forecast to be far in excess of these winds.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-02-2016 1:01am

Carnacalla wrote: »

11pm Taf's out.

Max wind at DUB:
BECMG 5am-8am 250 degrees (WSW) 29kts G 48kts.

Max wind at SNN:
BECMG 4am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 30kts G 40kts

Max wind at ORK:
BECMG 6am-9am 240 degrees (WSW) 25kts G 42kts

Max wind at NOC:
BECMG 3am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 28kts G 46kts

Dangerously conservative in my opinion. Can see the winds exceeding the forecasts at all airports. A max gust of 40kts at SNN? Laughably low.

Expect the 5am forecast to be far in excess of these winds.

Now you're learning! I would go for 45-50 at SNN, 50-55 at DUB/BAL/NOC and around 60-65 at Sligo, Donegal and Aldergrove. I think the highest gust reported will be 70 kt at Malin Head.

ASCAT winds at 21.30 this evening measured 60 kts sustained in the SE sector of Henry out in the Atlantic. With some further deepening tonight and it passing over Scotland the highest winds will be around rush hour tomorrow evening, so all eyes on Flightradar24. Belfast could be interesting with windshear.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-02-2016 8:37am

Pretty windy at Kerry Airport at the moment

METAR EIKY 010700Z 25033G51KT 9999 BKN025 12/06 Q1008=

And yes, the 5 am TAFs have upped the max winds alright.

JCX BXC · 01-02-2016 9:01am

Not by much. gusting 52kts at SNN at the moment (VERY windy here in West Clare) and not in the TAF at all.

b757 · 01-02-2016 9:50am

(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 08 VALID 010900/011200 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV MTW FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 FL050/180 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 07 VALID 010900/011300 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 05 VALID 010500/010900 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV MTW FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 FL050/160 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 06 VALID 010500/010900 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 312330/012330 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 04 010830 VALID 010839/011039 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0832 A330 PS AND MS 20KT AT 1000FT=
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 03 010800 VALID 010802/011002 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0757 A330 PS 20 AND MS 15KT FROM 800FT =
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 02 010750 VALID 010750/010950 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0741 B757 5 MLS OUT AT 200FT PS AND MS 15KT=
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 01 010730 VALID 010733/010933 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0723 B777 LOSS 10 TO 20KT BTN 700 AND 600FT=
(IRELAND) EINN WS WRNG 01 010700 VALID 010705/010905 WS IN APCH RWY24 REP AT 0701 UNITED 25 PS AND MS 10KT=
(IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 010600/012330 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 =
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 02 VALID 010500/012330 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 02 VALID 010400/012330 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIKN AD WRNG 02 VALID 010300/012330 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =

SEV MTW, TURB and Windshear being reported.

b757 · 01-02-2016 10:31am

SPECI EIWF 010920Z 26012KT 200V300 9999 FEW027 SCT038 12/10 Q1010 R21/1/////=

Gaoth Laidir · 01-02-2016 4:29pm

The highest gust at an airport so far was 66 knots at Donegal

SPECI EIDL 011346Z AUTO 25044G66KT 2800 SCT005 BKN009 BKN015 08/02 Q0999=

JCX BXC · 02-02-2016 12:15am

Shannon forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 9am-5pm tomorrow.

Cork forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 12pm-6pm tomorrow.

Knock forecasting sleet showers from 12am-3pm, and snow showers from 12pm-6pm.

Belfast forecasting small hail and snow pellets from 12am-6am and 3pm-6pm, with light snow showers also forecast from 3pm-6pm.

Jack1985 · 02-02-2016 1:02am

Carnacalla wrote: »

Shannon forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 9am-5pm tomorrow.

Cork forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 12pm-6pm tomorrow.

Knock forecasting sleet showers from 12am-3pm, and snow showers from 12pm-6pm.

Belfast forecasting small hail and snow pellets from 12am-6am and 3pm-6pm, with light snow showers also forecast from 3pm-6pm.

Lovely!

JCX BXC · 03-02-2016 10:16pm

Wind looking nasty for a while at DUB on Friday, early afternoon/late morning.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-02-2016 11:03pm

Another 200-kt jet max coming off New Foundland tomorrow afternoon, giving some turbulence to the transatlantics.

JCX BXC · 06-02-2016 1:31pm

Sleet in the forecast for all 4 Irish major airports (DUB,ORK,SNN,NOC) from 8pm at NOC to from 2am at DUB.

Gaoth Laidir · 07-02-2016 9:04am

Cork will most likely see some disruption tomorrow morning for the first 3 or so hours of operations. This morning's TAF gives PROB30 26038G60KT up to 6 am but I expect the strongest winds to last until around 9 am. I think the PROB30 should be upgraded in future TAFs today.

Similarly, Kerry and Waterford airports will see disruptive winds. Shannon is touch and go (excuse the pun), with the strongest winds probably during the inactive small hours (TAF goes for 0800/0803 PROB30 G54KT).

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 1:14pm

TAF's updated now. Cork Max gust down to 58kts! But from 260 degrees so complete crosswind on 17/35. If your flying from Cork tomorrow morning, your flight may not take off (wind outside limits)

SNN's Max gust is 57kts from 270 degrees (somewhat of a crosswind) from 4am to 12pm. Wonder how the Transatlantics will fare in the morning.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 6:31pm

Further downgrade on the 17:00 TAF, max gust back to a Prob 40% and down to 260 degrees 37kts G55kts at ORK.

For tonights arrivals:
TEMPO 9pm-12am 250 degrees (WSW) 27kts G 45krs
BECMG 11pm-1am 250 DEGREES (WSW) 27kts G 48kts.

Shannon meanwhile has a TEMPO 6am-10am 270 degrees 35kts G 57kts.
Nothing disruptive at DUB or NOC.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 10:11pm

Shannon airport reporting -TSRAGR (light thunderstorm rain hail) and 240 degrees 33kts gusting 44kts at 21:00.

BMJD · 07-02-2016 11:46pm

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 11:48pm

BMJD wrote: »

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

The direction for the morning rush will be fairly westerly, so shouldn't cause much disruption at all.

Will post a summary of the 11pm TAF's when they're out.

Gaoth Laidir · 07-02-2016 11:58pm

Latest warnings and SIGMETs. As I thought, Cork looks dodgy up to 9 am.

EISN SIGMET 06 VALID 072015/080015 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST SW OF LINE N5210 W00600 - N5434 W01000 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
EINN AD WRNG 02 VALID 071500/080330 SFC WIND SW BECMG W 20-25 MAX 35-40 BECMG 0719/0721 SW 30-35 MAX 50-55 =
EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 071430/080200 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG OCNL 30-35 MAX 45-50 =
EINN AD WRNG 04 VALID 080500/081900 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
EINN AD WRNG 03 VALID 080330/080500 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST =
EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 080200/080900 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST NC=
EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080130/080500 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST

BMJD · 08-02-2016 12:21am

(DUBLIN) TAF EIDW 072300Z 0800/0824 24020G33KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0812 5000 SHRA BKN015 PROB30 TEMPO 0801/0805 24029G45KT BECMG 0803/0806 23022G37KT BECMG 0808/0811 27020G32KT TEMPO 0811/0816 FEW017CB BECMG 0811/0815 26022G38KT PROB30 0818/0821 25031G47KT=
(SHANNON) TAF EINN 072300Z 0800/0824 24030G43KT 9999 FEW012 SCT018 BKN040 BECMG 0800/0803 24036G52KT TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT018CB TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 0802/0809 TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0806 24040G60KT BECMG 0805/0807 27032G45KT TEMPO 0809/0812 27035G50KT BECMG 0818/0821 26022G32KT=
(CORK) TAF EICK 072300Z 0800/0824 25027G47KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0803 26037G56KT PROB30 0803/0809 25038G60KT PROB30 TEMPO 0806/0809 TSRA BECMG 0813/0815 26021G36KT BECMG 0818/0821 25015G26KT BECMG 0821/0824 25010KT=
(CONNAUGHT) TAF EIKN 072300Z 0800/0824 24016G28KT 9999 SCT010 BKN018 TEMPO 0800/0803 4000 SHRAGS BKN008 SCT017CB TEMPO 0803/0818 4000 SHRA BKN007 SCT018CB BECMG 0807/0809 27011KT BECMG 0809/0812 28020G34KT BECMG 0818/0821 25020G35KT=
(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 072258Z 0800/0824 20012KT 9999 FEW012 SCT030 TEMPO 0800/0806 21015G27KT TEMPO 0800/0810 6000 RA SHRA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0808 BKN008 BECMG 0806/0809 26012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0812/0824 6000 SHRA BKN010 TEMPO 0815/0821 26015G25KT=

JCX BXC · 08-02-2016 12:30am

Dublin

Decoded main points
PROB 30% TEMPO 1am-5am 240 degrees (WSW) 29kts G 45ks
BECMG 3am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 22kts G 37kts
BECMG 8am-11am 270 degrees (W) 20kts G 32kts
BECMG 11am-3pm 260 degrees (W) 22kts G 38kts
PROB 30% TEMPO 6pm-9pm 250 degrees (WSW) 31kts G 47kts.

Coded
EIDW 071700Z 0718/0818 21021G33KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030 TEMPO 0718/0719 23023G38KT PROB30 0718/0719 23026G42KT PROB40 TEMPO 0718/0719 5000 RA BKN012 BECMG 0718/0720 24020G32KT TEMPO 0719/0724 FEW017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0719/0810 5000 SHRA BKN015 PROB30 TEMPO 0722/0806 24027G43KT BECMG 0808/0811 27020G32KT TEMPO 0811/0816 FEW017CB TEMPO 0815/0818 26027G42KT

No disruption expected

Cork

Main Points Decoded
Forecast 12am-12am
250 degrees (WSW) 27kts G 47kts
PROB 30% 12am-3am 260 degrees (W) 37kts G 56kts
PROB 30% 3am-9am 250 degrees (WSW) 38kts G 60kts
PROB 30% 6am-9am Thunderstorm Rain
BECMG 1pm-3pm 260 degrees 21kts G 36kts

Coded
TAF EICK 072300Z 0800/0824 25027G47KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0803 26037G56KT PROB30 0803/0809 25038G60KT PROB30 TEMPO 0806/0809 TSRA BECMG 0813/0815 26021G36KT BECMG 0818/0821 25015G26KT BECMG 0821/0824 25010KT=

Max gust back to 60kts, I echo Gaoth's remarks, nothings moving from Cork before 9am :P

Shannon

Main Points Decoded
Forecast 12am-12am
240 degrees (WSW) 30kts G 43kts
BECMG 12am-3am 240 degrees 36kts G 52kts
PROB 30% 2am-9am Thunderstorm Rain
PROB 30% 3am-6am 240 degrees 40kts G 60kts
BECMG 5am-7am 270 degrees 32kts G 45kts
TEMPO 9am-12pm 270 degrees 35kts G 50kts

Coded
TAF EINN 072300Z 0800/0824 24030G43KT 9999 FEW012 SCT018 BKN040 BECMG 0800/0803 24036G52KT TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT018CB TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 0802/0809 TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0806 24040G60KT BECMG 0805/0807 27032G45KT TEMPO 0809/0812 27035G50KT BECMG 0818/0821 26022G32KT

Will be an interesting morning for Shannon ops. Not too much of a crosswind, mostly a headwind, so probably will stay within limits, although a 60kt gust blowing any direction at a Runway can cause problems, thunderstorm rain will obviously cause problems, strong gusts, severe turbulence. Ops will probably not be majorly affected, but keep an eye on the two morning Transatlantic arrivals if your up.

Knock

Main Points Decoded
BECMG 7am-9am 270 degrees (W) 11kts
BECMG 9am-12pm 280 degrees (W) 20kts G 34kts
BECMG 6pm-9pm 250 degrees (WSW) 20kts G 35kts

Coded
TAF EIKN 072300Z 0800/0824 24016G28KT 9999 SCT010 BKN018 TEMPO 0800/0803 4000 SHRAGS BKN008 SCT017CB TEMPO 0803/0818 4000 SHRA BKN007 SCT018CB BECMG 0807/0809 27011KT BECMG 0809/0812 28020G34KT BECMG 0818/0821 25020G35KT

No disruption.

BMJD · 08-02-2016 4:41am

BMJD wrote: »

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

New warning issued, right out til 2100

IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 080900/081600 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 04 VALID 080500/081900 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080500/082100 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 03 VALID 080330/080500 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST =
(IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 080200/080900 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST NC=
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080130/080500 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 080100/080700 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST =

Lustrum · 08-02-2016 12:32pm

EGLC 081120Z 24025G42KT 9999 BKN035 10/01 Q0984

TAF EGLC 081100Z 0812/0821 23025G40KT 9999 SCT025
TEMPO 0812/0816 7000 SHRA BKN014
PROB30
TEMPO 0812/0816 24030G50KT 4000 +SHRA BKN009
PROB30
TEMPO 0816/0821 7000 SHRA BKN014

This is london city at the moment, last 4 aircraft have all gone around, only 1 has come back for another go, all the rest diverted to Southend. For anyone who's never been, anything over 25kts here and it gets pretty mental

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