Aviation weather thread

JCX BXC

Not by much. gusting 52kts at SNN at the moment (VERY windy here in West Clare) and not in the TAF at all.

b757

(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 08 VALID 010900/011200 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV MTW FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 FL050/180 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 07 VALID 010900/011300 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 05 VALID 010500/010900 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV MTW FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 FL050/160 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EISN SIGMET 06 VALID 010500/010900 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST E OF W01030 AND N OF N5130 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
(IRELAND) EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 312330/012330 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 04 010830 VALID 010839/011039 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0832 A330 PS AND MS 20KT AT 1000FT=
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 03 010800 VALID 010802/011002 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0757 A330 PS 20 AND MS 15KT FROM 800FT =
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 02 010750 VALID 010750/010950 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0741 B757 5 MLS OUT AT 200FT PS AND MS 15KT=
(IRELAND) EIDW WS WRNG 01 010730 VALID 010733/010933 WS IN APCH RWY28 OBS AT 0723 B777 LOSS 10 TO 20KT BTN 700 AND 600FT=
(IRELAND) EINN WS WRNG 01 010700 VALID 010705/010905 WS IN APCH RWY24 REP AT 0701 UNITED 25 PS AND MS 10KT=
(IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 010600/012330 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 =
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 02 VALID 010500/012330 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 02 VALID 010400/012330 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIKN AD WRNG 02 VALID 010300/012330 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =

SEV MTW, TURB and Windshear being reported.

b757

SPECI EIWF 010920Z 26012KT 200V300 9999 FEW027 SCT038 12/10 Q1010 R21/1/////=

Gaoth Laidir

The highest gust at an airport so far was 66 knots at Donegal

SPECI EIDL 011346Z AUTO 25044G66KT 2800 SCT005 BKN009 BKN015 08/02 Q0999=

JCX BXC

Shannon forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 9am-5pm tomorrow.

Cork forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 12pm-6pm tomorrow.

Knock forecasting sleet showers from 12am-3pm, and snow showers from 12pm-6pm.

Belfast forecasting small hail and snow pellets from 12am-6am and 3pm-6pm, with light snow showers also forecast from 3pm-6pm.

Jack1985

Carnacalla wrote: »

Shannon forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 9am-5pm tomorrow.

Cork forecasting small hail or snow pellets from 12pm-6pm tomorrow.

Knock forecasting sleet showers from 12am-3pm, and snow showers from 12pm-6pm.

Belfast forecasting small hail and snow pellets from 12am-6am and 3pm-6pm, with light snow showers also forecast from 3pm-6pm.

Lovely!

JCX BXC

Wind looking nasty for a while at DUB on Friday, early afternoon/late morning.

Gaoth Laidir

Another 200-kt jet max coming off New Foundland tomorrow afternoon, giving some turbulence to the transatlantics.

JCX BXC

Sleet in the forecast for all 4 Irish major airports (DUB,ORK,SNN,NOC) from 8pm at NOC to from 2am at DUB.

Gaoth Laidir

Cork will most likely see some disruption tomorrow morning for the first 3 or so hours of operations. This morning's TAF gives PROB30 26038G60KT up to 6 am but I expect the strongest winds to last until around 9 am. I think the PROB30 should be upgraded in future TAFs today.

Similarly, Kerry and Waterford airports will see disruptive winds. Shannon is touch and go (excuse the pun), with the strongest winds probably during the inactive small hours (TAF goes for 0800/0803 PROB30 G54KT).

JCX BXC

TAF's updated now. Cork Max gust down to 58kts! But from 260 degrees so complete crosswind on 17/35. If your flying from Cork tomorrow morning, your flight may not take off (wind outside limits)

SNN's Max gust is 57kts from 270 degrees (somewhat of a crosswind) from 4am to 12pm. Wonder how the Transatlantics will fare in the morning.

JCX BXC

Further downgrade on the 17:00 TAF, max gust back to a Prob 40% and down to 260 degrees 37kts G55kts at ORK.

For tonights arrivals:
TEMPO 9pm-12am 250 degrees (WSW) 27kts G 45krs
BECMG 11pm-1am 250 DEGREES (WSW) 27kts G 48kts.

Shannon meanwhile has a TEMPO 6am-10am 270 degrees 35kts G 57kts.
Nothing disruptive at DUB or NOC.

JCX BXC

Shannon airport reporting -TSRAGR (light thunderstorm rain hail) and 240 degrees 33kts gusting 44kts at 21:00.

BMJD

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

JCX BXC

BMJD wrote: »

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

The direction for the morning rush will be fairly westerly, so shouldn't cause much disruption at all.

Will post a summary of the 11pm TAF's when they're out.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest warnings and SIGMETs. As I thought, Cork looks dodgy up to 9 am.

• EISN SIGMET 06 VALID 072015/080015 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST SW OF LINE N5210 W00600 - N5434 W01000 SFC/FL060 STNR NC=
• EINN AD WRNG 02 VALID 071500/080330 SFC WIND SW BECMG W 20-25 MAX 35-40 BECMG 0719/0721 SW 30-35 MAX 50-55 =
• EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 071430/080200 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG OCNL 30-35 MAX 45-50 =
• EINN AD WRNG 04 VALID 080500/081900 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
• EINN AD WRNG 03 VALID 080330/080500 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST =
• EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 080200/080900 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST NC=
• EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080130/080500 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST

BMJD

(DUBLIN) TAF EIDW 072300Z 0800/0824 24020G33KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0812 5000 SHRA BKN015 PROB30 TEMPO 0801/0805 24029G45KT BECMG 0803/0806 23022G37KT BECMG 0808/0811 27020G32KT TEMPO 0811/0816 FEW017CB BECMG 0811/0815 26022G38KT PROB30 0818/0821 25031G47KT=
(SHANNON) TAF EINN 072300Z 0800/0824 24030G43KT 9999 FEW012 SCT018 BKN040 BECMG 0800/0803 24036G52KT TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT018CB TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 0802/0809 TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0806 24040G60KT BECMG 0805/0807 27032G45KT TEMPO 0809/0812 27035G50KT BECMG 0818/0821 26022G32KT=
(CORK) TAF EICK 072300Z 0800/0824 25027G47KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0803 26037G56KT PROB30 0803/0809 25038G60KT PROB30 TEMPO 0806/0809 TSRA BECMG 0813/0815 26021G36KT BECMG 0818/0821 25015G26KT BECMG 0821/0824 25010KT=
(CONNAUGHT) TAF EIKN 072300Z 0800/0824 24016G28KT 9999 SCT010 BKN018 TEMPO 0800/0803 4000 SHRAGS BKN008 SCT017CB TEMPO 0803/0818 4000 SHRA BKN007 SCT018CB BECMG 0807/0809 27011KT BECMG 0809/0812 28020G34KT BECMG 0818/0821 25020G35KT=
(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 072258Z 0800/0824 20012KT 9999 FEW012 SCT030 TEMPO 0800/0806 21015G27KT TEMPO 0800/0810 6000 RA SHRA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0808 BKN008 BECMG 0806/0809 26012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0812/0824 6000 SHRA BKN010 TEMPO 0815/0821 26015G25KT=

JCX BXC

Dublin

Decoded main points
PROB 30% TEMPO 1am-5am 240 degrees (WSW) 29kts G 45ks
BECMG 3am-6am 230 degrees (SW) 22kts G 37kts
BECMG 8am-11am 270 degrees (W) 20kts G 32kts
BECMG 11am-3pm 260 degrees (W) 22kts G 38kts
PROB 30% TEMPO 6pm-9pm 250 degrees (WSW) 31kts G 47kts.

Coded
EIDW 071700Z 0718/0818 21021G33KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030 TEMPO 0718/0719 23023G38KT PROB30 0718/0719 23026G42KT PROB40 TEMPO 0718/0719 5000 RA BKN012 BECMG 0718/0720 24020G32KT TEMPO 0719/0724 FEW017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0719/0810 5000 SHRA BKN015 PROB30 TEMPO 0722/0806 24027G43KT BECMG 0808/0811 27020G32KT TEMPO 0811/0816 FEW017CB TEMPO 0815/0818 26027G42KT

No disruption expected


Cork

Main Points Decoded
Forecast 12am-12am
250 degrees (WSW) 27kts G 47kts
PROB 30% 12am-3am 260 degrees (W) 37kts G 56kts
PROB 30% 3am-9am 250 degrees (WSW) 38kts G 60kts
PROB 30% 6am-9am Thunderstorm Rain
BECMG 1pm-3pm 260 degrees 21kts G 36kts

Coded
TAF EICK 072300Z 0800/0824 25027G47KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0800/0803 26037G56KT PROB30 0803/0809 25038G60KT PROB30 TEMPO 0806/0809 TSRA BECMG 0813/0815 26021G36KT BECMG 0818/0821 25015G26KT BECMG 0821/0824 25010KT=


Max gust back to 60kts, I echo Gaoth's remarks, nothings moving from Cork before 9am :P


Shannon

Main Points Decoded
Forecast 12am-12am
240 degrees (WSW) 30kts G 43kts
BECMG 12am-3am 240 degrees 36kts G 52kts
PROB 30% 2am-9am Thunderstorm Rain
PROB 30% 3am-6am 240 degrees 40kts G 60kts
BECMG 5am-7am 270 degrees 32kts G 45kts
TEMPO 9am-12pm 270 degrees 35kts G 50kts

Coded
TAF EINN 072300Z 0800/0824 24030G43KT 9999 FEW012 SCT018 BKN040 BECMG 0800/0803 24036G52KT TEMPO 0800/0816 SCT018CB TEMPO 0800/0816 4000 SHRA BKN012 PROB30 0802/0809 TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 0803/0806 24040G60KT BECMG 0805/0807 27032G45KT TEMPO 0809/0812 27035G50KT BECMG 0818/0821 26022G32KT

Will be an interesting morning for Shannon ops. Not too much of a crosswind, mostly a headwind, so probably will stay within limits, although a 60kt gust blowing any direction at a Runway can cause problems, thunderstorm rain will obviously cause problems, strong gusts, severe turbulence. Ops will probably not be majorly affected, but keep an eye on the two morning Transatlantic arrivals if your up.


Knock

Main Points Decoded
BECMG 7am-9am 270 degrees (W) 11kts
BECMG 9am-12pm 280 degrees (W) 20kts G 34kts
BECMG 6pm-9pm 250 degrees (WSW) 20kts G 35kts

Coded
TAF EIKN 072300Z 0800/0824 24016G28KT 9999 SCT010 BKN018 TEMPO 0800/0803 4000 SHRAGS BKN008 SCT017CB TEMPO 0803/0818 4000 SHRA BKN007 SCT018CB BECMG 0807/0809 27011KT BECMG 0809/0812 28020G34KT BECMG 0818/0821 25020G35KT

No disruption.

BMJD

BMJD wrote: »

Wind warning issued for eidw from 0130 until 0500, maxing 40-45kts. Should ease after that so shouldn't be much disruption for the morning rush.

New warning issued, right out til 2100


IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 080900/081600 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 04 VALID 080500/081900 SFC WIND SW 30-35KT MAX 45-50 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080500/082100 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST =
(IRELAND) EINN AD WRNG 03 VALID 080330/080500 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST =
(IRELAND) EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 080200/080900 SFC WIND SW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST NC=
(IRELAND) EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 080130/080500 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =
(IRELAND) EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 080100/080700 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST =

Lustrum

EGLC 081120Z 24025G42KT 9999 BKN035 10/01 Q0984

TAF EGLC 081100Z 0812/0821 23025G40KT 9999 SCT025
TEMPO 0812/0816 7000 SHRA BKN014
PROB30
TEMPO 0812/0816 24030G50KT 4000 +SHRA BKN009
PROB30
TEMPO 0816/0821 7000 SHRA BKN014


This is london city at the moment, last 4 aircraft have all gone around, only 1 has come back for another go, all the rest diverted to Southend. For anyone who's never been, anything over 25kts here and it gets pretty mental

Gaoth Laidir

Frost on R16 at DUB this morning, braking action medium - good. R28 just damp, braking action good.

METAR:
EIDW 100630Z 27011KT 1500 BR SCT001 00/00 Q0996 R10/190095 R16/390094 TEMPO 0500

Could be 200 m visibility in the next few hours too.

TAF:
TAF AMD EIDW 100615Z 1006/1106 28010KT 4000 BR SCT001
TEMPO 1006/1010 0200 FG BKN001
BECMG 1010/1012 9999 NSW SCT020
BECMG 1018/1021 23005KT
PROB30 TEMPO 1020/1024 -SHRA BKN010
TEMPO 1103/1106 3000 BR BKN010
PROB30 TEMPO 1104/1106 0400 FG BKN001

JCX BXC

Nothing like a bit of surprise fog! VIS 900m at 8am and temp of 0c.

Gaoth Laidir

And it was a pretty drastic fall in visibility too. Visibility was
40 km at 6 am
1.5 km at 7 am,
900 m at 8 am,
9 km at 9 and 10 am and now back up to 25 km.

JCX BXC

40km? I thought the readings only went to 10km or more?

That's often the nature of early morning fog anyway from my experience. Comes out of nowhere and can be gone just as quick.

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

40km? I thought the readings only went to 10km or more?

That's often the nature of early morning fog anyway from my experience. Comes out of nowhere and can be gone just as quick.

The hourly FM-12 synops give full visibility data, even in different directions if needed.

This was Dublin at 6 am. The visibility 82 (in bold) means 40 km.

AAXX 10061 03969 11182 12706 10005 20004 39861 49966 52015 69952 81600
333 20004 31101 55001 81702=

Gaoth Laidir

It's back up to 50 km at DUB now and also SNN and NOC.

40 km and BAL and 30 km at ORK.

JCX BXC

Taf's for all 4 major Irish airports forecasting a TEMPO of fog overnight. Met Eireann have also dense fog in their general populace forecast for tonight.

Do Met Eireann make the TAF's for the airports, or is it another agency?

Negative_G

Carnacalla wrote: »

Taf's for all 4 major Irish airports forecasting a TEMPO of fog overnight. Met Eireann have also dense fog in their general populace forecast for tonight.

Do Met Eireann make the TAF's for the airports, or is it another agency?

TAFs are made using met eireann data as well as other sources like the British met service data. The forecaster at the airport will then draw up a TAF based on their opionin.

Several of the larger airports and Baldonnel have their own met offices with their own forecasters on site 24/7.

Gaoth Laidir

TAFs for the Republic's airports are only generated by the Met Eireann aviation forecasters at Shannon. For the North they are issued by the UKMO.

With the exception of Shannon there are no forecasters at any of the airports. There are observers at DUB, BAL, ORK (and during the day at NOC). They only issue METARs and SYNOP reports but not TAFs. They can, however, issue the TREND or TEMPO forecasts that can come at the end of a METAR. At the regional airports the tower personnel act as observers too and issue the METARs.

In any case, all these at observers at SNN, ORK, NOC and BAL will be done away with and they will become fully automatic stations in the near future. What a shame. Only DUB will remain manned.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

TAFs for the Republic's airports are only generated by the Met Eireann aviation forecasters at Shannon. For the North they are issued by the UKMO.

With the exception of Shannon there are no forecasters at any of the airports. There are observers at DUB, BAL, ORK (and during the day at NOC). They only issue METARs and SYNOP reports but not TAFs. They can, however, issue the TREND or TEMPO forecasts that can come at the end of a METAR. At the regional airports the tower personnel act as observers too and issue the METARs.

In any case, all these at observers at SNN, ORK, NOC and BAL will be done away with and they will become fully automatic stations in the near future. What a shame. Only DUB will remain manned.

Would the forecasters at SNN not issue the METARS in the future?

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

Would the forecasters at SNN not issue the METARS in the future?

You mean issue the SNN METARs? No, I don't think so. An observer's job is very different to that of a forecaster. The METARs for all except DUB and the Regionals during the day will be AUTO. Maybe Knock will use the tower personnel as observers too, I'm not sure, but its SYNOP reports will be fully automatic. Unfortunately it doesn't have Present-weather instrumentation like most of the other automatic stations around the country, which is a pity as it is the one place that sees the most action (fog, snow, etc.)! I hope they will install a TUCSON station there to rectify this.

Negative_G

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

TAFs for the Republic's airports are only generated by the Met Eireann aviation forecasters at Shannon. For the North they are issued by the UKMO.

With the exception of Shannon there are no forecasters at any of the airports. There are observers at DUB, BAL, ORK (and during the day at NOC). They only issue METARs and SYNOP reports but not TAFs. They can, however, issue the TREND or TEMPO forecasts that can come at the end of a METAR. At the regional airports the tower personnel act as observers too and issue the METARs.

In any case, all these at observers at SNN, ORK, NOC and BAL will be done away with and they will become fully automatic stations in the near future. What a shame. Only DUB will remain manned.

Do you have a link regarding the closure of said met stations?

The meteorologists at these stations can also issue SPECI's on request as well and I have heard it requested and subsequently issued albeit not very frequently.

Gaoth Laidir

Negative_G wrote: »

Do you have a link regarding the closure of said met stations?

The meteorologists at these stations can also issue SPECI's on request as well and I have heard it requested and subsequently issued albeit not very frequently.

The stations won't be closed, they will just become automatic. This was told to me personally by Met Eireann and there was a subsequent job vacancy for head of aviation services posted, which described this change in more detail. The link is still here but the vacancy is no longer listed on publicjobs.ie as the closing date was I think in January.

http://www.met.ie/vacancies/

And yes, a SPECI is just a METAR issued outside the half-hourly schedule. Automatic stations also issue these.

Gaoth Laidir

Actually I knew there was a thread about this somewhere. Found it!

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057431735/1/#post95516455

Gaoth Laidir

This is a .pdf of the job advert. The closing date was actually last May.

http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/CorporateServices/CustomerServices/FileDownLoad,41342,en.pdf

Gaoth Laidir

Knock down to 300 m vis at 7 am.

METAR EIKN 120700Z 03006KT 0300 R27/0450 FG BKN001 BKN004 M01/M01 Q0991 NOSIG=

At 6 am the METAR gave visibility >10 km but the synop gave 8 km. That is because the METAR gives prevailing visibility (the greatest visibility through at least half of the horizon) whereas the synop gives the minimum visibility observed in any direction. Looking at synops as well as METARs can give some extra info and confidence if planning say a general aviation flight across Ireland in a fog-prone setup.

Latest synops here http://www.ogimet.com/ultimos_synops.php?lang=en&estado=Irel&fmt=html&Send=Send

Guide to decoding the basic parameters here http://weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html

For a full guide see the WMO's 306 Guide to Codes pdf.

JCX BXC

Down to 200m at 8am with an RVR of 250m.
Temperature also -2

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

Down to 200m at 8am with an RVR of 250m.
Temperature also -2

Temperature and dewpoint both -1.6 °C so 100% saturation.

JCX BXC

10:30 reports give 100m and an RVR of 100m

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

10:30 reports give 100m and an RVR of 100m

Nothing ain't going nowhere in that...

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Nothing ain't going nowhere in that...

3 aircraft in the hold, look at the FR24 thread

Gaoth Laidir

Temperature at Knock now +0.9 °C but the dewpoint is -1.7 °C yielding 83% r.h. so we'll probably see the fog starting to clear there soon.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Temperature at Knock now +0.9 °C but the dewpoint is -1.7 °C yielding 83% r.h. so we'll probably see the fog starting to clear there soon.

Finally cleared between 14:00-14:30.
8000m now.

Gaoth Laidir

Nice example of the extra info a synop report can give. The 3 pm one for Knock (WMO code 03973) gives a minimum visibility of 8 km (***58), but it is 15 km to the northwest only (the 987**group). ***65=15 km.

AAXX 12151 03973 41358 81003 10034 20032 39675 49928 57005 72842 886//
333 85706 88712 98765=

The METAR for the same time also gave 8 km as that is the prevailing visibility over at least half of the horizon.

JCX BXC

Bit of fog moving in and out of cork in the past few hours.

Currently 1200m in shallow fog.

JCX BXC

Kerry airport the coldest airport at 8am this morning! It has a temp of -4c. This compares with +2c at the normally cold Knock airport.

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

Kerry airport the coldest airport at 8am this morning! It has a temp of -4c. This compares with +2c at the normally cold Knock airport.

Casement got down to -4.5 °C.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Casement got down to -4.5 °C.

Not at 8am.

Gaoth Laidir

Carnacalla wrote: »

Not at 8am.

I know, I was just saying. It was actually the coldest station on the island of Ireland.

JCX BXC

Dublin's Temperature has been fairly jumpy!

20:00 0c
20:30 -3c
21:00 -1c
21:30 -3c
22:00 -2c