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19-12-2019, 00:34   #76
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2021? Now that is seriously FI
Roughly T9,000+ hrs into FI. You would need some pretty hefty computational power to generate a half trustworthy chart........
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19-12-2019, 10:23   #77
 
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GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

That's an ensemble member not the operational run
It would be too high a pressure for showers over Ireland and by the looks of the rest of the chart,the high would sink south
All academic of course!
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19-12-2019, 14:31   #78
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the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.
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19-12-2019, 17:11   #79
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the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.
What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.
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19-12-2019, 17:18   #80
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What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.
The ECM isn't as overly mild as the GFS and may have some dryer conditions after Christmas, but neither are pointing at anything proper wintry for the next few weeks. Hopefully we will see some big and positive changes in January.
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19-12-2019, 19:24   #81
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As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.
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19-12-2019, 20:05   #82
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As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.
We have so much going against us don’t we.
The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

The Azores high...

For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.
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19-12-2019, 20:25   #83
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We have so much going against us don’t we.
The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

The Azores high...

For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.
Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.
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19-12-2019, 20:40   #84
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Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.
Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

Anyway, I suppose this Christmas coming could be a lot worse. At least there is highly unlikely to be temperatures of 14 or 15 C on Christmas Day going by the latest guidance. So no repeat of 2011 or 2015.

I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

Good riddance to 2019 I say
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19-12-2019, 20:50   #85
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Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

Good riddance to 2019 I say
I remain hopefully too, I think we'll have to wait till January to see if there is going to be any sort of a pattern change. One of the things that gives me hope is that the Atlantic has been raging since September with very little let up, almost 4 months of deluges. This has to run out of steam at some stage. Most winters we get unlucky with the Atlantic firing up around end of October or beginning of November, but we've had it like this for almost quarter of a year now. The charts seemed like they were on to something over the past week, but the past 2 days has seen a reverse in opportunities with most now keeping us mild and the Atlantic going.
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20-12-2019, 12:30   #86
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a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.





The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.
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20-12-2019, 17:28   #87
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a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.





The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.
The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!
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20-12-2019, 23:24   #88
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This is a somewhat more useful evolution for coldies this evening

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21-12-2019, 03:41   #89
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The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!
Not the thread for this general debate but I'm fairly confident we get hot summers after cold winter/spring , definitely in my lifetime. 2010/2013/2018.

No doubt sryan will prove me wrong
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22-12-2019, 12:04   #90
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FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

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